Observations...

[Jarred Land]

Sorry Jarred for being the one but it still confuses me, because i can't find any info about "purchasing new" in that post. just that the acc credit is here to stay until after nab - which I understand as being in relation to the trade in / upgrade only info as it says

But maybe it's just me.

thx added the extra line.

 

[Russ Fill]

Any chance of one last thank you bonus at the end of the week for all who believed in the next generation of cameras.. That would be pretty cool.

 

[Blair S. Paulsen]

Since the theme is Observations...

Since the theme is Observations...

I don't claim to know how much margin RED expects to make on the Weapons. I don't know how many pieces of key parts would have to be ordered in bulk for RED to cut unit costs.

What I do know, is that for camera folk, Weapon offers some significant benefits. For visual artists it's a compelling opportunity to reach for more. Thank you to the entire RedTeam.

What I also know, is that getting clients to pay more for any line item in their budget is very difficult.

What I'm getting at, is that unless you really understand and care about the "last mile" of image quality the Weapon Dragon brings to the party - then the "same chip in a new body" pitch (fair or not) might not command the bump in rate needed to cover the upgrade. Ironically, it's a tough sell because the Epic housed Dragon is quite good already.

That said, IMO, the market dynamics will be more powerful when the Carbon Weapon has the 8K VV sensor on board as now you have an easy to comprehend differentiator to promote. As an imaging geek I realize that "more Ks" is hardly a reliable indicator of picture quality by itself, but assuming the pixels themselves are high performance - then more is actually better for most acquisition tasks, especially with a Bayer CFA based device.

So, long way around, it seems to me like the ROI equation will be driven to a large degree by how soon the 8K cut of the Dragon wafer ships. If my supposition is correct, that 8K Weapon will fetch higher day rates vs Epic/Scarlet Dragon but 6K Weapon not nearly as much, then it would be rather helpful to know if "end of the year" is optimistic, realistic or pessimistic. I'm not sure that subject is something that Jarred cares to be more specific about, and that's understandable. RED's competitors are awake now. Moreover, even if that didn't figure in, it would hardly help the cause if the story became another missed shipping date - RED has publicly stated that they want to put those days behind them and I believe them.

So where does that leave the owner/op RedUser? Having to make business decisions with limited information, which is certainly not RED's "fault", it's the nature of business - risk vs reward and all that. I think a lot of us were hoping for some frame rate bumps with the Weapon's added muscle as that's a marketable capability. Don't get me wrong, I'm more interested in great frames than more frames, but it would have helped Weapon buyers cover the upgrade costs.

I hate the "good enough" mentality and respect RED's approach. I just thought it was important to recognize that some of the general antipathy I've been hearing around the show today about upgrade costs might be more about ROI concerns, than a lack of appreciation for what the Weapon promises.

Cheers - #19

 

[Tom Chase]

Sir, I love the passion you put into RED and to this post - thank you for that.

As for the weapon I was drawn to the RED booth like a magnet (think I went back there 5 or 6 times throughout the day), I'm torn on upgrading because I have only had my dragon since January and the few shoots I've done with I feel like I haven't even attempted to stretch it's wings to the fullest extent. But thank you for bringing these amazing options to us!

 

[Jarred Land]

I don't claim to know how much margin RED expects to make on the Weapons. I don't know how many pieces of key parts would have to be ordered in bulk for RED to cut unit costs.

What I do know, is that for camera folk, Weapon offers some significant benefits. For visual artists it's a compelling opportunity to reach for more. Thank you to the entire RedTeam.

What I also know, is that getting clients to pay more for any line item in their budget is very difficult.

What I'm getting at, is that unless you really understand and care about the "last mile" of image quality the Weapon Dragon brings to the party - then the "same chip in a new body" pitch (fair or not) might not command the bump in rate needed to cover the upgrade. Ironically, it's a tough sell because the Epic housed Dragon is quite good already.

That said, IMO, the market dynamics will be more powerful when the Carbon Weapon has the 8K VV sensor on board as now you have an easy to comprehend differentiator to promote. As an imaging geek I realize that "more Ks" is hardly a reliable indicator of picture quality by itself, but assuming the pixels themselves are high performance - then more is actually better for most acquisition tasks, especially with a Bayer CFA based device.

So, long way around, it seems to me like the ROI equation will be driven to a large degree by how soon the 8K cut of the Dragon wafer ships. If my supposition is correct, that 8K Weapon will fetch higher day rates vs Epic/Scarlet Dragon but 6K Weapon not nearly as much, then it would be rather helpful to know if "end of the year" is optimistic, realistic or pessimistic. I'm not sure that subject is something that Jarred cares to be more specific about, and that's understandable. RED's competitors are awake now. Moreover, even if that didn't figure in, it would hardly help the cause if the story became another missed shipping date - RED has publicly stated that they want to put those days behind them and I believe them.

So where does that leave the owner/op RedUser? Having to make business decisions with limited information, which is certainly not RED's "fault", it's the nature of business - risk vs reward and all that. I think a lot of us were hoping for some frame rate bumps with the Weapon's added muscle as that's a marketable capability. Don't get me wrong, I'm more interested in great frames than more frames, but it would have helped Weapon buyers cover the upgrade costs.

I hate the "good enough" mentality and respect RED's approach. I just thought it was important to recognize that some of the general antipathy I've been hearing around the show today about upgrade costs might be more about ROI concerns, than a lack of appreciation for what the Weapon promises.

Cheers - #19

This is a good post Blair.

I can understand how ROI is something that is becoming more and more in your minds as time goes on and new cameras pop up every other month. With RED I think it is a good short or a good long play... over the years with incremental updates as we go along keeps you "fresh" for the full duration. Some of them are big jumps in technology... some of them more mechanical and 'prepare' for big jumps in technology.

Like when we went from RED ONE MX to Epic MX with the same sensor and then went from Epic body to Epic body with the Dragon sensor etc. etc.

People have done the math over and over again, but if you just look at a 7 year run you could of bought a single $80,000 camera 7 years ago and spent another $80,000 3 years ago for the "replacement" version, and now be facing spending another $80,000 for the next version, picking hopefully the best time to sell along the way or you could of been using the newest from us every year as we went along for the price of that initial $80,000 investment, without the slopes in between.

The Weapon body and Weapon processing has alot of incredible improvements. The 6K Dragon sensor is incredible, as you guys already know. And the 8K sensor is breathtaking on a whole other level.

And even if you just want to do the short play, If you step out of the upgrade program and look at the Weapon as a new customer wanting a new camera, and look t it's price, even with the 8K sensor upgrade price, and compare it to everything else on the market at the same price point, I think it comes out ahead.

As for schedule... For Dragon 6K to begin shipping in July is a really safe bet. Something can always go wrong and a building can burn down or an Earthquake take out our factory, but we are in really great shape form a hardware point of view. We have some little bugs here and there that we swat out but it's not like we are waiting for anything like asics or sensors. RCX opens up Weapon files now. People are out shooting stuff.

The 8K sensor of course is further out time-wise which is always harder to predict which is why we can't give a month yet but we feel pretty good about it.. but it is taking incredible images right now.

 

[sam karr]

People have done the math over and over again, but if you just look at a 7 year run you could of bought a single $80,000 camera 7 years ago and spent another $80,000 3 years ago for the "replacement" version, and now be facing spending another $80,000 for the next version, picking hopefully the best time to sell along the way or you could of been using the newest from us every year as we went along for the price of that initial $80,000 investment, without the slopes in between.

Well I guess it's not that simple. People are selling their cam before buying a new one. And some brands are selling well on the used market. Some people can complain that it's because the technology didn't change much, but it's ok for many as long as it still offers what they need. I never really saw the economic bonus of upgrades, probably because I'm a new comer and that was more interesting in the early years. People are still talking about it 7 years later. But I have to agree that red upgrades make things more simple, not having to sell it ourselves.

 

[Jarred Land]

Well I guess it's not that simple. People are selling their cam before buying a new one. And some brands are selling well on the used market. Some people can complain that it's because the technology didn't change much, but it's ok for many as long as it still offers what they need. I never really saw the economic bonus of upgrades, probably because I'm a new comer and that was more interesting in the early years. People are still talking about it 7 years later. But I have to agree that red upgrades make things more simple, not having to sell it ourselves.

yes of course... its not completely cumulative.

 

[Elsie N]

In re: the 8k sensor upgrade... is the $10,000 only a deposit or is that the total price for that option? And if it is the total price, when does that have to be paid to get that deal?

Never mind... found that.

 

[Gunleik Groven]

I guess you're right Sam...

For me:
RedONE 17.500,-
Stage2 upgrade (Keep R1) 19.500,-
Dragon upgrade: 9.500,-
------------------------------------------
So far 46.500,-

RED gave me an early adopter credit of 2.500,- for accessories on the RED1

But I have consciously not added accessories, as you'd have to do that with "any" camera.
Now. I happen to have turned my X into an M, and if I had means to upgrade, I'd definitely be most interested in the Vista thing, as that is closest to having an FF 4:3 sensor which means...

CF Weapon 49.500,-
-EpicM 17.500,-
+ Vista (NAB) 10.000,-
------------------------------
Total 42.000,-

Which (admittedly to me) is totally out of reach at the moment, but it is a pretty sexy deal, I think.
And a lot less than 70k USD which is the flagged price post NAB.

So would I have been better off buying an 80k cam in 2008?



In my case: Nope.
An 80k cam was not accessible then. (even though I priced out a Varicam for 250k in 2007. Glad I didn't do that...)

 

[Luke K]

Nice post Jim.

 

[Shane Peel]

How about dropping a grab from one of those 8K sensors that is "taking incredible images right now". Jarred that would be a pretty all-time bucket of blood into the shark tank right about now … go on mate do it and yeah Jims dead right the new stuff is an option and the old stuff is still better than every other camera brands new stuff remember people make pictures not cameras… must … find … 67K … now.

 

[Ketch Rossi]

Great post Jim with very compelling arguments/statements... And great to have seen you at NAB!!

WEAPON is a absolutely BAD ASS camera... NO DOUBT!!

 

[Björn Benckert]

It´s strange but I find my self looking around the for sale threads on this forum and also ebay to find a nice redone MX setup. We been using scarlets and even BM cameras as B cameras quite a bit and the more I think of it I see the Red one mx as a very good option, PL mount, good studio setup with all the needed features, VLock, screen, viewfinder, r3d´s etc... To me even the competing new cameras does really come close to beat a used RED ONE package when looking at what I can get for the little money that they sell for.

 

[Joel J. Feigenbaum]

Jim and Jarred:
You guys never cease to amaze. Can't imagine what RED will bring to market over the next ten years. But it's already feeling like Christmas.

 

[Ivan Cortazar]

Thanks for the clarification, Jarred. It definitively makes things more appealing. Still for me as an owner/operator perspective, is still hard to justify in my accounting the jump to weapon MG, knowing the diminishing rental fees, and how good epic dragon already is. But congratulations non the less because Weapon looks amazing, and I'd love to jump right away if the price was lower.

But regarding the 8K upgrade credit; could this be also like the $5000 accessory credit and not be limited to NAB for preNab Epic Dragon owners? I say this because having a background in photography and having shot a lot of medium and large format photography, being able to go from an Epic dragon 6K into a Weapon 8K, I think it might be quite appealing for many of us that aren't ready for the jump just yet.

Right now, it doesn't make sense to me to jump into weapon MG 6K, and then into weapon CF 8K, two different bodies in less than 1,2 years? But if there is a path to get that CF 8K jump benefit extended over time for the people that are waiting for the 8K or are not ready to pull the financials in such a short time, I think it would be beneficial for both parties.

Of course I'd rather be able to go from Epic Dragon Al straight into a more affordable Weapon Al 8K, but I understand that the 8K is more of a niche market and the Carbon might justify the extra expense. But if at least we could have the incentive of NAB offer extended overtime, at least we could still dream of some day when ready jump into the VV world. Otherwise going from 10,000$ to $20,000 increase in three days, it'll definitively make things completely out of reach for many people.

I also understand the marketing aspect of having the deadline of NAB to try to get as many people sign in before NAB, but I promise if you tell us here that the deal could be extanded for pre NAB dragon owners, I won't tell anyone.

Thanks,

That is how it works. The $5000 accessory credit is for all of you that have Dragons before NAB and it is good to use until you are ready to upgrade to Weapon.. whenever that may be. That is one of the reasons why it was " worth it " to upgrade before NAB.

The $5000 accessory credit that is tied to NAB week is just for the new Weapon orders ( not upgrades ) .

 

[Abraham Lim]

Re: Observation

Re: Observation

I don't post here much, just usually come to learn the tech. in and outs from the numerous knowledgeable people here. Also mainly because I'm a director who shoots. I don't work that many pro-pay gigs now that I'm outside of the States, been out of that loop since I left NYC.

I am always learning just what I have to know to get the next idea or project done, whether it's software, computer assembly or cameras. In other words I'm frugal as hell, looking for best bang-for-the-buck. That's the perspective I have as well when NAB arrives.

So now we have Blackmagic back in with their "mini" URSA at 4.6K, competing with the new not-so-disruptive DVX200 at 4K with a fixed lens and the already shipping FS7 which my German buddy just bought. All of these coming under 8,000.00.

And none of them gives me the least bit of incentive to abandon my BT Red One MX. I think it's funny that they are all around the price of the BT Red One that made us all break our piggy banks to jump on the Red rollercoaster, albeit a backseat. But the simple fact that these cameras, brand new and innovative are still just matching the specs. of the grand old dame is a great observation in and of itself.

Now comes the Weapon at 8K Vista and I will never be able to afford it, unless I abandon this road I've been on for a while and get back into freelance gigs for better pay. I tried to angle it for the last few weeks, is there a way to sell off what I've got and step up to Dragon, but anything I do would keep me from making my films. I'm just as susceptible to gear envy as the next guy (thank you corporate marketing departments), but when I stop for a moment and power up my R1 MX, I just sit back (for about a minute or so) and realize that where I'm at is just fine.

Film schools in China are funny they buy the next best thing to showcase how "advanced" their school is but the kids never get to touch the gear. It only leaves the cage when officials come to visit. Alexa and Red under glass. My students though are lucky, they get the international teacher with his own gear. They pull out their iphones and whenever I turn my back take pictures standing with the R1. In post class they get to learn RAW and the great and established workflow that I am still figuring out (like still really not getting FLUT). And as I shot with them in class today, and overexposed a bit, I realize I should master the camera I own before I start thinking about new gear. There's an observation.

My first feature film was shot on an Aaton S16 LTR that I bought from Abel. My next film was shot on an SDX900 and upconverted to HDCAM. My third film was shot on a Varicam and a Canon HV20 with Letus adapter. My fourth was shot in Antarctica on my GH2. This summer I will shoot my film on my Red One MX in China.

So a big thanks to Doug Underdahl, who convinced me to go BT. A thanks to all you guys who make Reduser my first stop at the end of the day. And to Jim and Jannard from me and my growing number of students for allowing us on this rollercoaster of innovation, that's so far forward even the back seats are in front.

Ok, now back to NAB!

 

[Nikhil Kamkolkar]

Absolutely... The purpose of the credit is to make the transition from your Epic / Scarlet body to the new Weapon body as painless as possible since there are some new accessories, and can be applied to media, handles, modules, monitors, etc. It gets put into your account to spend on whatever you want.

Jarred, I get Weapon is top-of-line. I don't want top-of-line. But I want to remain in play for key improvements I'd like to have for my on-set workflows. Your new accessories, the blackshading improvemements, the processing improvements that give us a better image (don't give a hoot for prores).

The only way i see that happening is if you come up with a way less expensive aluminum body with the same factor as the Magnesium weapon that us EPIC Dragon owners can upgrade to at a way lower cost.

Please don't leave us behind...

Thanks,
Nikhil

 

[Paul Kalbach]

Well said Jim...

 

[Dr. Sassi]

Mr Jannard, I'm happy to hear that you never had much more fun with RED! )

I like that you and the whole RED team is pushing things forward so extremely. The Weapon feels like the racing car of a car company, not only for fun -- but to gain as well advantages for the "little cars", down the road.
I'm grateful to own a camera that will be more than sufficient to capture my dream, my first feature film. (After having supported other in the last 25+years.)
... and you continue to produce a wide variety of cameras that has that quality, from affordable to more or less top class priced ;o). I can't find any company who does this, but of course RED is never comparable at all.

Thanks for the offer to trade in my Epic Dragon, and in all fairness – I read it in this way, the Dragon-X-Brain is $24K right now and you offer $20,5K, which means:

I would have payed for one year of Dragon-X $3.5K, that is ~$10 per day, not bad at all.

I hope the tech of the Weapon is available in Aluminum in 2016, so I can afford it with my budget.

Thank you. )

 

[Maik Müller]

Great post Jim, i couldn't agree more. Glad to see you post something, just like the old days.
A huge congrats to Jarred, you are doing a great job. The weapon-project is fantastic. Period.

I'll start working on making this dream come true for me...