Dragon Update + A.D.D.

[Gavin Greenwalt]

Thanks Jarred,

I can see the pickle as RED sees it on wanting to sell cameras when they can sell cameras. I just feel as if "#1" sets a bad precedent for future sales. Look at what happens to iPhones sales before MacWorld, there is a distinct drop in units moved prior to a new product announcement. It even has a name "The Osborne Effect". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect RED clearly tried to head this off at NAB last year by selling Epics hard as a "Dragon Ready" camera. I know you really want to get Dragon out there, but if "next time" I know that RED will give first priority to new customers, I'm just going to sit on my hands and wait a few months until I can skip the line instead of jumping in immediately. You'll be training your customers to not buy immediately.

Microsoft has to address this on a somewhat regular basis as well. With Windows 8 around the corner they didn't stop selling PCs, they just offered a free upgrade when Windows 8 released. The important thing though was that Windows 8 upgrades were available on *day one*. Imagine if Microsoft operated like the proposed changes to the Dragon stages "Buy a Windows 7 PC today, and get Windows 8 upgrade 5-6 months after every one else!" Nobody would buy a PC, sales would tank and it wouldn't help Microsoft. There clearly is a temptation to move Dragon. But I think that's a short term bandaid that will come back to bite you next time you want to maintain sales leading up to an upgrade.

If the current upgrade line is geared towards fast turn around from the moment they received the camera - maybe a 'Standby Queue' could be introduced where Very Slow turn around is expected.

When the main upgrade line finds itself with spare capacity :
+) The next Standby camera on the shelves is worked on.
+) The upgrade line would then be able to operate at maximum efficiency.
+) Owners with cameras waiting in the standby queue would have to accept their cameras are NOT in for a quick turn around (eg expect a month without your camera)
+) RED would control when Standbyers send in their cameras to guarantee they have more than they need to 'fill in the gaps'.

As I believe this strategy would shorten the overall Dragon upgrade cycle for RED, and free up their resources for other amazing projects - I would be happy to nominate myself as 'Standbyer'.
Maybe this strategy would depend on if there is a large group of people who would happily live without (one of) their cameras.

AJ

Thanks Antony that's a nice thorough explanation of what I was trying to suggest with "#2". If you have problems with inconsistent data rate (aka upgrade cameras being sent in) then you can operate far more efficiently with a larger 'cache' that will somewhat average out short term spikes and troughs.

 

[Jarred Land]

If the current upgrade line is geared towards fast turn around from the moment they received the camera - maybe a 'Standby Queue' could be introduced where Very Slow turn around is expected.

When the main upgrade line finds itself with spare capacity :
+) The next Standby camera on the shelves is worked on.
+) The upgrade line would then be able to operate at maximum efficiency.
+) Owners with cameras waiting in the standby queue would have to accept their cameras are NOT in for a quick turn around (eg expect a month without your camera)
+) RED would control when Standbyers send in their cameras to guarantee they have more than they need to 'fill in the gaps'.

As I believe this strategy would shorten the overall Dragon upgrade cycle for RED, and free up their resources for other amazing projects - I would be happy to nominate myself as 'Standbyer'.
Maybe this strategy would depend on if there is a large group of people who would happily live without (one of) their cameras.

AJ

I like this.. but it means that people would need to wait alot longer for turn around time. It seems people start to get nervous after about day 4 when they send the camera in.. I am pretty sure we would get pitchforks in the parking lot if we tried to keep them for a month turn around.

 

[brett ogden]

Most likely but if its their choice and they understand its 30 days it shouldn't be a issue. I bet some owners would wait without a camera for 30days if dragon was*the*prize.

 

[Jarred Land]

Thanks Jarred,

I can see the pickle as RED sees it on wanting to sell cameras when they can sell cameras. I just feel as if "#1" sets a bad precedent for future sales. Look at what happens to iPhones sales before MacWorld, there is a distinct drop in units moved prior to a new product announcement. It even has a name "The Osborne Effect". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect RED clearly tried to head this off at NAB last year by selling Epics hard as a "Dragon Ready" camera. I know you really want to get Dragon out there, but if "next time" I know that RED will give first priority to new customers, I'm just going to sit on my hands and wait a few months until I can skip the line instead of jumping in immediately. You'll be training your customers to not buy immediately.

Microsoft has to address this on a somewhat regular basis as well. With Windows 8 around the corner they didn't stop selling PCs, they just offered a free upgrade when Windows 8 released. The important thing though was that Windows 8 upgrades were available on *day one*. Imagine if Microsoft operated like the proposed changes to the Dragon stages "Buy a Windows 7 PC today, and get Windows 8 upgrade 5-6 months after every one else!" Nobody would buy a PC, sales would tank and it wouldn't help Microsoft. There clearly is a temptation to move Dragon. But I think that's a short term bandaid that will come back to bite you next time you want to maintain sales leading up to an upgrade.



Thanks Antony that's a nice thorough explanation of what I was trying to suggest with "#2". If you have problems with inconsistent data rate (aka upgrade cameras being sent in) then you can operate far more efficiently with a larger 'cache' that will somewhat average out short term spikes and troughs.

Can't use software as an example. Your comparing something that is instantly available to a billion people as soon as a switch is flicked vs. an upgrade process that not only is physical, but takes along time to actually do.. with the aforementioned unknowns of delivery date, camera condition, process hick ups, etc. It is not just making cameras. And we are talking about a select groups "privileges" over the general population.

At the end of the day there is nobody to blame for this but ourselves. We created this problem when we wanted to give back to our loyal customers by giving them a priority. Some people obviously take advantage or loose appreciation of that, but I think most people understand and value it that are in that group. I have no question now though that the existence of that group pisses off almost everyone else.

Making cameras isn't the problem ( to an extent ) .. it is the time it takes to process all the upgrades.

Another option... a trade-in option for new cameras instead of an upgrade. Will cost a bit more, but elevates alot of the bottleneck.

O Brent is going to kill me....

 

[D Fuller]

Another option... a trade-in option for new cameras instead of an upgrade. Will cost a bit more, but elevates alot of the bottleneck.
.

How much more? The difference between an Epic-M and a Dragon-M is only $6500. What would the trade-in price have to be to work?

 

[Dr. Sassi]

Perhaps a stand-by option.

...

I like this.. but it means that people would need to wait alot longer for turn around time. It seems people start to get nervous after about day 4 when they send the camera in.. I am pretty sure we would get pitchforks in the parking lot if we tried to keep them for a month turn around.

Hi Jarred,

When I suggested the stand-by, I had imagined to give max four weeks as stand by time. I would do that in an instance. Epic is in L.A. ;o) Perhaps people with more than one camera would have also no problem with it.

Best
Sassi

 

[paulherrin]

sounds like some refurb upgrades or battle-tested sales could happen... and that'd be hard to complain about.

 

[Jeff McCoy]

Another option... a trade-in option for new cameras instead of an upgrade. Will cost a bit more, but elevates alot of the bottleneck.

O Brent is going to kill me....

Count. Me. In. Love this option the most and here is why:
1) full & complete warranty
2) get Dragon faster
3) zero hours on the body / new camera!
4) new fans!
5) less down-time (no need to wait for upgrade- just swap!)

Please make this happen at a reasonable price! Love it. And then maybe you can sell battle tested epics or dragons for those who are patient.

 

[Nick Fury]

So what happens what ?K trade in EpicX's?

Thank you very much

Fury

 

[Wayne Morellini]

All this cuing and upgrading seems to get in the way of the real game releasing new cameras. Lower end Dragons for example. Maybe the production line should be given full resources and extra people hired to handle the upgrades. A number of people will just buy a new camera sell their old one and drop out of the cue, the new owners maybe rejoining the cue latter with shorter wait, sort of stretches it out a bit.

Seriously, a 8k Epic X model in a few weeks would see a number of people sell rather than upgrade. But I suppose we are going to have 6k for a while.

 

[Mark Pedersen]

At the end of the day there is nobody to blame for this but ourselves. We created this problem when we wanted to give back to our loyal customers by giving them a priority. Some people obviously take advantage or loose appreciation of that, but I think most people understand and value it that are in that group. I have no question now though that the existence of that group pisses off almost everyone else.

Making cameras isn't the problem ( to an extent ) .. it is the time it takes to process all the upgrades.

Another option... a trade-in option for new cameras instead of an upgrade. Will cost a bit more, but elevates alot of the bottleneck.

O Brent is going to kill me....

Jarred, I think that offer was well thought out and respectful of your longstanding customers and very much appreciated by Early Adopters. I know if made me feel great that RED thought about us and offered it as a thank you. I doubt most Red users challenge that program, but rather see it as the good will gesture that it is.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think everyone is pissed at the Early Adopter program. Rather, everyone just wants to get a Dragon as soon as possible, and is frustrated by the fact that it's taking longer than everyone expected. But at least now there's a dialog. Suggestions and ideas are coming out on how things could be improved.

I feel everyone would appreciate more visibility into the queue and where we are in the queue. It would go a long way toward diffusing frustration while we wait. Right now, for us, it's a big black hole that only Red has visibility into. I like the suggestions of adding another upgrade team. Why not widen the bandwidth if you have the sensors and needed parts? I also like the idea of creating a log in on Red.com where we could see a "we are now serving XXXX number" posting so we have an idea of where we stand. Maybe you don't want to publish numbers of cameras waiting to be upgraded, but if it's a large number, I would think it would be good for PR for RED and help us all plan better. You wouldn't even need to publish that number. If everyone is notified privately with a serial number that represents their place in line, all we'd have to do is check in the "we are now serving" number and get a sense of it. It would certainly eliminate a lot of calls and email inquiries into RED, which I would think would make your lives less stressful, reduce your labor costs and increase efficiency.

In the meantime, can you give us some indication on when you think you'll be completing Early Adopter upgrades? In your first post on this thread you indicated that it might be end of March, first week in April. Is that still the case?

Thanks for any info you can provide.

 

[Jarred Land]

Jarred, I think that offer was well thought out and respectful of your longstanding customers and very much appreciated by Early Adopters. I know if made me feel great that RED thought about us and offered it as a thank you. I doubt most Red users challenge that program, but rather see it as the good will gesture that it is.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think everyone is pissed at the Early Adopter program. Rather, everyone just wants to get a Dragon as soon as possible, and is frustrated by the fact that it's taking longer than everyone expected. But at least now there's a dialog. Suggestions and ideas are coming out on how things could be improved.

I feel everyone would appreciate more visibility into the queue and where we are in the queue. It would go a long way toward diffusing frustration while we wait. Right now, for us, it's a big black hole that only Red has visibility into. I like the suggestions of adding another upgrade team. Why not widen the bandwidth if you have the sensors and needed parts? I also like the idea of creating a log in on Red.com where we could see a "we are now serving XXXX number" posting so we have an idea of where we stand. Maybe you don't want to publish numbers of cameras waiting to be upgraded, but if it's a large number, I would think it would be good for PR for RED and help us all plan better. You wouldn't even need to publish that number. If everyone is notified privately with a serial number that represents their place in line, all we'd have to do is check in the "we are now serving" number and get a sense of it. It would certainly eliminate a lot of calls and email inquiries into RED, which I would think would make your lives less stressful, reduce your labor costs and increase efficiency.

In the meantime, can you give us some indication on when you think you'll be completing Early Adopter upgrades? In your first post on this thread you indicated that it might be end of March, first week in April. Is that still the case?

Thanks for any info you can provide.

Let me talk to the team this week and see what options we have going forward. We are in the middle of NAB overload so don't expect anything to change till then... actually NAB is a good target to roll out a plan.

The good news is that this is now a short term (ish) problem... and it is a good problem to have. We will undoubtedly be still doing upgrades into the fall but after that this is done with.

The complete visibility is a tricky one because everything changes... I'd prefer not to put our team through that added pressure, and with people already disappointed without having a timeframe from us I can just imagine how you guys would react when you do have a date and something slips.

I like to think RED already gives you guys more visibility as a company than anyone else even comes close to... for better or worse. I like it.. I like going through this process with you guys and bouncing ideas off the walls together. But I can see how all the stress and drama that comes with being this open would scare the living hell out of most other manufacturers marketing departments let alone their Presidents and CEOs.

 

[Mark Pedersen]

Ok, Cool! Thanks for considering all the input. Hope you're not pissed at me for apparently starting a shit storm, and that my place in line is secure

I agree. Healthy debate and discussion is a good thing. It's helped made RED successful, led to improved products and a loyal customer base. And as a customer, helps us feels like we are still part of the greatest camera technology revolution in history.

Looking forward to NAB and seeing what you guys have in store and getting my hands on stuff I've only seen online like the 3 Axis controller….

Any party plans this year? (yeah I know, off topic)

M

 

[Daniel Pearson]

We will undoubtedly be still doing upgrades into the fall but after that this is done with.

Hi Jarred, I'm pretty sure I'm reading this wrong but to clarify - are you saying that after the "current" upgrades running into fall, RED will no longer be offering Dragon uprgrades?

 

[Robert Ruffo New]

Hi Jarred, I'm pretty sure I'm reading this wrong but to clarify - are you saying that after the "current" upgrades running into fall, RED will no longer be offering Dragon uprgrades?

Same question….

 

[Gavin Greenwalt]

At the end of the day there is nobody to blame for this but ourselves. We created this problem when we wanted to give back to our loyal customers by giving them a priority. Some people obviously take advantage or loose appreciation of that, but I think most people understand and value it that are in that group. I have no question now though that the existence of that group pisses off almost everyone else.

I guess I'm confused. Which group are we talking about? The early adopters or everyone with an Epic-X Upgrade order? My understanding was that all Epic-X upgrades were phase 3 and new Epic-X cameras were a part of phase 4. Maybe there has been some confusion in this dialog but aren't you talking about starting Epic-X Dragon production (phase 4)? I guess I don't speak for everyone, but I have no problem with the "Early Adopters" priority. I'm just opposed to Epic-X Dragons shipping before Epic-X Upgrades. But referring to people who might have bought an Epic-X even in December doesn't really jive with "loyal customers" so I feel like there must be some confusion and we're talking about different things.

The pragmatic side of me loves the idea of a trade-in instead of an upgrade, I even had made it #4 but then deleted it before posting. I really, really want to like it, the only obstacle is the prideful side of me is resents the notion of paying someone to get around an obstacle that they themselves created. Feels like paying someone to fill a pothole they dug. I would still probably go for it, although I would rather not lose my extra year of lemon warranty from being one of the unlucky 'bad batch' Epics.

 

[Wayne Morellini]

A.D.D* Leverages not only the surrounding pixels but the surrounding pixels in surrounding frames... something that really makes Dragon a step ahead of all of the DSLRs.

Yes, this is my line of thinking.

The picture I get in my head is some sort of handshake between frames causing them to take on characteristics based on how surrounding frames and pixels look. Does that mean frames will become graduated to resemble those adjoining?

If this be true, will that affect how motion looks?... meaning smoother.

Yes. But as I've said elsewhere our eyes will probably track it better if the normal frame rate (48fps+) is presented as 360degree shutter.

Marketing will decide if they allow it to go to MX sensor. I was doing this technology over 6 months ago with OK results. You can look up the threads, I believe They were encouraged by my posted test images.
It's called "super resolution".
Note: it requires a light or no OLPF to work, as well as a razor sharp starting point. Even if you are slightly out of focus the technology will do nothing. MX has an overbearing lowpass . RED* would need to offer a lighter one for ADD to have effect on MX.

You can get around these things Les. Some might not be worth it.

Nice try Les.* You should probably put a " I think it is " somewhere in your claims so people know you don't actually know what you are talking about.

A.D.D. is not "super resolution".*

That shit be old news... we have been playing around with "temporal resolution" for years. I even have a few old RCX builds from before you were even a memeber with it.* You got one thing right in your post though,* the results are just OK.* Which is why we never implemented it.

But when I bought this up with Graham before he was acting like he did not know what I meant, even though I gave lots of clues. and me and Les where looking at each other blinking at each other through the ether so to speak, because Les got it.

It can be done, buy needs a graceful mind. Actually I was coming IP with solutions in the 90's then a film restoration technology came out in California that goes along these lines. The right sensor just makes it better.

Dibs on telling them to use carbon nano fibers... in something or another. '-)

He, he. I'm thinking of using something twice as stoing lighter and highly insulative using a aerosol plastic.

If rather not be picking up pieces of cf glass off a set (vacuum) if anything happened, not too mention fire, but prefer a light alloy body anyway.

My theory... it is optimized for Dragon because (1) there are so many more (smaller) pixels to use for interpretation (2) this requires a complete new project to do the same thing for MX, and (3) it is only natural to assign more personnel to optimize the latest platform (Dragon).

Just my attempt to bring order to the universe. '-)

He, he

A.D.D footage doesn't look different.. it* just looks better.

And I am with Mark.* If A.D.D made 24fps look like that emulated high fps stuff that all the new TVs seem to ship with then I would probably jump off a bridge.

Good to know Jarred, about the footage just looking better.

And I can see why any 48 fps tv interpolation might push you off the bridge... still, I think 48 fps done right will be something we grow to love over time. '-)

It can be done right, that freaky jumpy interpolated frame stuff is shocking, I'd rather creamy natural look at high frame rates.

If you are right, this could have a huge effect on high frame rates. Could possibly transform exposure in recovering lost light when shooting HFR? This is sounding better and better!

Mark, I hope you can put aside your disdain for 48 fps timebase and test that footage using ADD.* Your take in that regard would be useful, especially knowing you prefer 24 fps.

But ideally, ADD gives 24 fps footy a new presence that perhaps in a way emulates 48 fps in some respect or another. I'm probably putting too much hope in what ADD can do, but until proven otherwise...

Nope, minds have been there already.

 

[Dominik Muench]

For all you guys using the Dragon to pull stills from motion, it truly can't be beat.

*giggety giggety

truckloads full of Aussie bikini babes are waiting for me to give this a try.....all for the purpose of good skintone testing of course....bring on this upgrade soon please

 

[Jarred Land]

I really, really want to like it, the only obstacle is the prideful side of me is resents the notion of paying someone to get around an obstacle that they themselves created. Feels like paying someone to fill a pothole they dug. I would still probably go for it, although I would rather not lose my extra year of lemon warranty from being one of the unlucky 'bad batch' Epics.

Gavin, you gotta help me out here man. I am trying to offer a solution to help you guys..

Pothole is the wrong analogy. You should of used speedbump. Im trying to help speed things up.. for your own benefit. Offering an option to get around the upgrade speedbump to get a Dragon in yours and everyone else's hands sooner.

We can make new Dragons faster than we can go through the process of upgrading Dragons.. we went over that in depth here already. If everyone is fine with just waiting... then we don't need to change anything. The barrage of new and old customers yelling at us every day to hurry up seemed like a problem that needed to be fixed.

Your post insinuates that we are trying to screw you somehow.

Just can't win....

 

[Adam Eden]

i would probably trade in instead of upgrading. i have my M already in the queue, and i haven't put my x in yet as i was waiting to see what happened