Tim Whitcomb
Well-known member
Jeff is very insightful as usual, and though he's right, I don't share his optimism on that timeline.
Yes, BD is now finally getting mainstream acceptance, but DVD still outsells it 3 to 1. Why? Not so much the cost of the player which is a one-time purchase, but the cost of BDs is still very high compared to DVD. To say that the average cost of a BD is $12 is misleading, most of the titles that sell for that much are dumbed down, single discs without any extra features, and then, mostly older titles. The BD average cost is still over $25, compared to $14 for DVD, with most new releases pushing past $35. That's stiff for most people, buying only 3-4 movies for 100 bucks, and makes a strong argument for rentals and pirated copies. It could be said that the high prices of BD are one of the reasons Netflix and others stay in business, cementing one of the mantras of later years: if owning is expensive, then rent. Likewise, the upgrade to widescreen, HD capable televisions has finally become mainstream in the more affluent countries, but that is very much an ongoing process, with millions of buyers upgrading to widescreen , or from 720p to 1080p, or DLP to LCD, or LCD to LED, etc, etc. It is very much a live process, and one where giants like Samsung and Sony are fighting tooth and nail over. So, are we really that naive to think that those millions of people who patiently waited for those TVs to sell for $500 will now trash those units and spend $thousands for 4K Tvs that will be able to play very limited content, which will likely cost $50-60 a title or play over cable at horrendous quality. If you think HD is commonplace, with most cable looking still awfully pixelated and macroblocked, so what will over-the-air 4K look like?
Well Redray was feeding 4K content at only 15 mb/s over the last 2 years of demos per Stuart .. I dont know of any other codec that can be transmitted with such a small streaming data footprint... that part of it alone enables digital delivery like no other (known) or proposed content delivery mechanism -
4K delivered at 15 mb/s is the game changer