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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

2012: The Year of 4K

I suspect even if it could it would really be new technology requiring new players and so on, it's not like you are suddenly going to be able t buy a 4K bluray disk and play it on your existing player..

I think that first the big movies will be delivered and in some cases projected in 4K (like early IMAX, so in a few major cities you'll have a some 4K cinemas). Then with an eye on future revenues, distributors will start asking for all movies to be delivered 4K (even if they are mostly not going to be distributed in that resolution). Then a few major TV series will be delivered 4K, but still not broadcast that way (at least not to a mass audience). Then there will be a 4K home delivery solution; like BluRay enabled true 1080p for the home. Then gradually over several years, more and more cinemas, home cinema systems and broadcasters will switch to 4K. It'll be 2020 before we're mostly all watching 4K, and even then loads of media will still be 1080p or less.

re 4K Player hardware - unless someone has a very well concealed trick up their sleeve - most probably true

I accept your point that 720p / 1080i / 1080p will be distributed for years to come, and hence we may never reach the "mostly all watching 4K" status, however IMHO the 4K business does not need to achieve that in order to be very viable for producers, advertisers and professional and consumer equipment manufacturers.
 
HD didn't make SD look worse, it just showed it the way it is. HD on 4K (or quad-HD) displays looks just like HD, you can't see the difference. Good upscaling algorithms can bring some benefits, just as we see up-scaled DVD out of Blu-Ray players looking pretty good, in many cases giving Blu-Ray titles a run for their money. The big issue we have here is that many HD sources and Blu-Ray releases are just not of very good quality. There are many factors, some of the biggest being over-compression and poor compression algorithms, clipped and compressed color spaces, that sort of thing. Apple is that wildcard rumor. And I actually do expect them to go 4K with their TVs when they launch. I don't think Apple will be launching their TV product in 2012. I bet it happens in 2013. What I do expect to see first is updated Macbook Pro and Macbook Air systems with "retina" or double-density displays. New iPad with the same. Next they will move on an updated iMac with double density screen and I also expect the new iMac to have many of the rumored TV features to be incorporated. Also expecting a 25" (yes, 25 inch) cinema display with actual 4K, 4096 pixels wide, resolution. ...I have my reasons/sources.




Blu-Ray consortium is hammering out the Blu-4K spec right now. RED *NEEDS* to launch RED-RAY (or RED4K, or whatever it will ultimately be called) this coming year.


Oh, and Toshiba is first to market with consumer 4K displays. They're officially launching them friday (less than 48 hours away) in Japan. Should hit state-side in about 5 months. The 55" no-glasses 3D model is their flagship display, but they also have a 55" 4K without the no-glasses 3D (I don't know if it does 3D at all) for 650,000 yen, or about $8200 USD. 4K is here.

Sony will be showing 4K out of a PlayStation3 at CES next month. Surprisingly, I'm not under NDA about that... I don't have details though. They should also be showing preliminary 4K Blu-Ray content.

But what is 4k, what people are calling 4k is actually shd and less than 4k. It is time that we had a common standard between TV and cinema, 4k 2:1 would be an adequate base, or 3840 * 1920 2:1. 4k is largerly irrelevant to anybody with a brain, shd can substitute as a base standard (meaning adopting resolution width but adding vertical resolution for different frame formats).

Yes, I think Apple is just going to double all of its monitor resolutions :) HiDPI mode, man. Been waiting for that since forever. And there's that Apple TV... 4K sounds right to me, with speech recognition. The question is whether it'll be 3D or not - Apple traditionally has not been pro-3D, but then there is the whole Pixar thing.

My skeptical theory for the TV manufacturers is:
1. sell everyone HD
2. sell everyone HD 3D
3. sell everyone 4K
4. sell everyone 4K 3D 48fps
5. sell everyone 8K display that also does 4K 3D auto-stereoscopic

A RED laser projector at least allows you to skip forward multiple steps!

BTW, I wonder if we'll move to a better color standard than 709 along with our move to 4K? And higher nits of screen brightness standard? Although then just all the commercials will use that and everyone will dial it back... so your movie will look too dark again :)

BTW if everything is being distributed digitally, there's no reason the content can't support wide-gamut color space as well as have a 709 fallback. Heck, you could even just send a 709 feed, with a few bits of wide gamut auxiliary data per pixel.

NHK's 8K / SHV standard has a lovely looking color gamut... pretty much Mitsubishi LaserVue gamut - and would be great for a RED projector.

1-1-1-z1.gif


Anyway, yay.

Bruce Allen
www.boacinema.com

They need to just go for it, and introduce a full coverage color standard, you see how much is not covered in that graph. They can then adopt sub versions and through high bit depth easily swap between them depending on screen technology. So starting with the something inbetween the current and the shv as the base, something near shv as the intermediary and the full coverage as the final for the full visual spectrum.
 
Blu ray is just now establishing itself as DVD's successor. A 4K format would take years to penetrate the market (probably 8 to get to current blu-ray status).
The problem lies within the medium used. People still think in tapes, disks and such. Completely obsolete. A small cartridge in SD or microSD form factor with 64GB+ shouldn't be much of a problem today and soon these numbers will be exceeded by a lot more. This way it could be used on all sorts of devices, including mobiles and we would make the evolutionary necessary step away from moving-parts media and we could very easily go 4k and beyond. If I'd be a movie distributor, I'd go solid sate cards now. BluRay sucks anyway. Never liked it, never will and I am glad if it dies out.
 
The problem lies within the medium used. People still think in tapes, disks and such. Completely obsolete.

I get your point, but BluRay and even DVD's are still selling to the tune of tens of millions of units per year. That's hardly "obsolete." I understand cynicism - I'm as cynical as anyone here - but the reality is that simply declaring something "obsolete" doesn't make it so, regardless of what you believe about the future. Besides, I really don't think the future lies in smaller media. It lies in no media, as in streaming and cloud based distribution, because that is by far the most cost effective way to distribute digital information, and it's "convenient enough" that most consumers will be able to access it. And if you think that mobile devices will require hard goods of any sort, you haven't looked at your phone lately. Or, within 2 years or so, your car.
 
I get your point, but BluRay and even DVD's are still selling to the tune of tens of millions of units per year. That's hardly "obsolete." I understand cynicism - I'm as cynical as anyone here - but the reality is that simply declaring something "obsolete" doesn't make it so, regardless of what you believe about the future. Besides, I really don't think the future lies in smaller media. It lies in no media, as in streaming and cloud based distribution, because that is by far the most cost effective way to distribute digital information, and it's "convenient enough" that most consumers will be able to access it. And if you think that mobile devices will require hard goods of any sort, you haven't looked at your phone lately. Or, within 2 years or so, your car.

Agree totally Mike .... just came back from CES last week (first time I'd been) ... the combination of multi-media hand-held devices and Cloud based distribution of video media was a very big underlying theme .... Apple started the revolution but the Asian and Chinese electronic manufacturers may well end up taking it to the next level.

The other key trend I saw there was 4k 3D TV display technology ... the LG booth was quite stunning even though it was only showing 2k high-speed footage up-rezzed to 4k ... can't wait to get some EPIC 4k 3D footage playing on one of those new LG OLED displays .... will be something else!

We had a 3D 4k EPIC music video playing on a LG glass-less smart phone ... we joked about '3D in your hand' ... people we showed it to were generally amazed by the image quality and the 3D-ness of the device.

The times they are a changin' ... as some old time poet once said.

Neil
 
Obsolete not only means "not in use" but it also means "out of date", and I meant it in the latter sense. What you call cynicism, I call reality. People still use cars with combustions engines, albeit we would not have to. Just because people buy and use stuff, that doesn't mean there is no better way, something more useful, something that would make more sense. Of course people are buying DVDs and BluRay, they do because it's what's available. There are countries that still make use of VHS and mules are often used instead of cars...

If you check my post again, you will notice that I commented the further use of BluRay and that if a physical medium is used, a chip would be the better choice. I did not go into medium-less storage, because it was not part of the post I replied to.
I agree that it will be the future, but there is one thing that will be much harder to change than a transition from one medium to the next, and that is the sense of ownership most people have. Cloud based storage is intangible. It is hard to show off your big collection of movies, books and LPs (one of the reasons why vinyl still exists, and books will be printed for many more years to come), if they only exists in digital form. And than there is also the legal side of ownership. A cover, a bill, a frame, a box. No matter what it is, many people will want something physical that documents their rightful ownership.
So while you may store your collection somewhere in a data-cloud, you may still have a hard copy, that gives you the sense of property. The coming generations (and the neophiles of the current) will have much less of a problem with this, as app-stores, mp3s and e-books show. But I think that's because we associate it very much with the device. Once the device matters less, that may also change a bit. Nonetheless, even if people at the forefront (I personally store most of my media digitally and) have no problem with the more abstract version of ownership, digitalization brings with it, they are not the mass market, which, as you pointed out correctly, still buy DVDs.

Besides, there will be plenty of times, places and reasons one is not connected, where a hard copy will make sense. And for that I suggest, we support the digitalization more by using chips with non-moving parts.
 
What's clear is the majority of audio visual content already is, or will in future be, delivered "over the network" to IP connected players.

That does not mean that Broadcast TV, DVD's or Blu-rays or other methods will vanish any time soon. And the "archive" and "slow network"arguments for physical media have merit, which is why RED RAY can support both network and physical delivery....

... however arguments such as "TV won't change", or "people own DVDs or Blue-ray are happy with that", so a new 4K resolution delivery system cannot / will not be adopted by an economically significant community of vendors and customers; that's just FUD.

How big that community will be in X months / years is the only question IMHO.
 
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... however arguments such as "TV won't change", or "people own DVDs or Blue-ray are happy with that", so a new 4K resolution delivery system cannot / will not be adopted by an economically significant community of vendors and customers; that's just FUD.

How big that community will be in X months / years is the only question IMHO.

+ ! - same things were said about "talkies. color, TV, VHS, cable, dvd, blu ray, ?, and eventually same thing will be said when someone (aliens) DOES invent the Jor-El Superman crystal holographic recorder/players
 
He, he, Tim. Amazing how people discount and don't see te future.

The problem lies within the medium used. People still think in tapes, disks and such. Completely obsolete. A small cartridge in SD or microSD form factor with 64GB+ shouldn't be much of a problem today and soon these numbers will be exceeded by a lot more. This way it could be used on all sorts of devices, including mobiles and we would make the evolutionary necessary step away from moving-parts media and we could very easily go 4k and beyond. If I'd be a movie distributor, I'd go solid sate cards now. BluRay sucks anyway. Never liked it, never will and I am glad if it dies out.

I agree that is possible, but for now we have to think how much a 64GB card costs compared to a less than $1 read only stamped disc. Flash is running out of head room restricting eventuqly price decreases, but other technologies are supposed to replace it, ironically also memory based on the recording medium used on discs. ;)

The other problem is the size, small memory cards are intangible, you don't seem to own much, and easy to loss. When I was designing formfactors for new media, I quickly realised this, and made them bigger. I had a mini SD card with a important backup that I lost, and have not seen again, it might have disappeared uo the vacume cleaner ;)

I agree that it will be the future, but there is one thing that will be much harder to change than a transition from one medium to the next, and that is the sense of ownership most people have. Cloud based storage is intangible. It is hard to show off your big collection of movies, books and LPs (one of the reasons why vinyl still exists, and books will be printed for many more years to come), if they only exists in digital form. And than there is also the legal side of ownership. A cover, a bill, a frame, a box. No matter what it is, many people will want something physical that documents their rightful ownership.
So while you may store your collection somewhere in a data-cloud, you may still have a hard copy, that gives you the sense of property. The coming generations (and the neophiles of the current) will have much less of a problem with this, as app-stores, mp3s and e-books show. But I think that's because we associate it very much with the device. Once the device matters less, that may also change a bit. Nonetheless, even if people at the forefront (I personally store most of my media digitally and) have no problem with the more abstract version of ownership, digitalization brings with it, they are not the mass market, which, as you pointed out correctly, still buy DVDs.

Besides, there will be plenty of times, places and reasons one is not connected, where a hard copy will make sense. And for that I suggest, we support the digitalization more by using chips with non-moving parts.

Patrick is correct, I have been on about this for a while. It is also the case you actually do own it and have the rightful moral right to resell it and get something else, do not have to pay much to pay it, do not have to worry about communications disruption, and most of all, your ownership right is no tued to the continued existence of the company cloud hosting the media, they die and your discs stay in your possesion and importantly keep playing unless there is something else stopping you. This cloud is an underhanded con job to take advahtage of you and control you to get more money out of you, over your life, then what it is worth, and more than a discount disc. I wonder what these companies are going to do in the case of wills where ownership is passed to new owners, will they owner it?
 
[you]do not have to worry about communications disruption, and most of all, your ownership right is no tued to the continued existence of the company cloud hosting the media, they die and your discs stay in your possesion and importantly keep playing unless there is something else stopping you
And it shows how vulnerable the cloud really is. MegaUpload got closed down and some people who payed for services also lost data in the process and as the crazies keep trying to censor the net more and more, it will happen more and more times.
 
It is all crazy Pactrick. Imagine what happens in natural disasters, a major solar storm even, or war, lots of way to be cut off or closed down, not just legal intervention. If there is a legal dispute between companies on copyright ownership, even on contract to use copyrighted material, even just a single frame of a accidentally filmed copyrighted work in a movie, given a sympathetic judge, in future it may even be used to shut down a site with 100 million + users, with the way the law is going, talk about service interruptions. There will be new insidious ways to wage corporate battles. The studios have to realise all this stuff they are supporting can be used very wrongly even against them, and once court battles go into the hundreds of millions+ things will get even more obvious. Like the electronics industry IP battles (and remember, future owners of studios from other industrues, are free to bring this mentality with them) where we get some litigious players that think they should own everything, even slight styling, one side gets a bit, or massively, greedy, another gets offended, then it's on for the next x months or years, but unlike electronics and patenting, to do swift damage and cost a lot you will not need little money to do it. Imagine if dense people passed a copyright law where you could potentially close down a whole movie release or cloud movie site because an arty restraunt owner designed a unobtrusive, but unique, rubbish bin to put out side his restraunt on the pavement, or a window display, and decided to have a go. I could design a rubbish bin and get Asian manufacturers to use it for cheap rates so evtually it comes up in film. I think this whole thing about the Hollywood sign is also rediculouse, if it is a public display / landmark, common object, you should be able to have it in shoot. These are why you are carefully designing laws not to be too expansive, and why business should be too, people are crazy enough to do things like this, if you let them of course.

Another craziness, is thus talk of getting rid of tapes and disks, to use hard drives to archive your movie footage. The surfaces of dusks are prone to deterioration of the recorded data, or they were years ago. If you drop one, you might crash the head and loss data. When the custom electronics in the drive age and faulter (notice I said when not if) you then have a potentially very difficult and costly task of trying to figure out how to recover that data. Flash is another prone to deterioration. If you drop a fireproof, magnetic field resistant tape cartridge, what do you have, maybe a/broken cartridge in a archival tape format that can be recovered easily that will last many years. Dusjs are a bit more prone to damage, but have similar advantages. I did some theorising for designing new tape and archival systems in the past. You can record onto a medium with longer archival life and have a mechanism for data recovery, I came up with a mechanism that would work into millions of years. Tape is far from fully developed as well, forget even your mukti terabyte holographic disks, the mechanisms I came up with can far far exceed it's storage density for cartrudge footprint, many times over. As for longevity, that really depends on medium used, which affects recording density, so there is some trade off, and I am not saying I can achieve that density and thousand year plus archival times at the same time, but I should be able to make it durable format in handling. As ussual, no magic, just brains.

I just realised Stuart said redray will also be on physical format, great, great, great. I had a business scheme ages ago, you buy the cloud service and can get a disk with that. For copyright reasons the disk maybe sent out to you after the first 6 months of release with all other purchases for the month, which gives time to maximise revenue before a pirate can lay hold of a library disk (not that they can merely copy the lower quality stream from the cloud anyway). I know I am giving away strategy here, but also establishing a moral prior art date (the patent law sucks). Many businesses have stratergies, schemes and models that suck, fashionably not seeing the dimensions of the problems or of human aspects, or of the future, or how to handel them or design products, they really need to talk to people like me first that see these things.
 
HD didn't make SD look worse, it just showed it the way it is.

When cathode ray tubes died, so did good looking tv IMO

I haven't seen any HD flat monitor display SD nicely, and most the hd content I've seen here in the UK, frankly, is compressed to f&*k. I'd rather run HD content through my downsampler and into a SD CRT frankly

As for projectors..Some imax employees display a b&w checker board image onto an imax screen. they subdivide the squares over time and wait until individual pixels have shrunk until they are no longer visible, and the image has turned grey.. and the result?.. we have approx 720p worth of distinguishable pixels on an imax screen..and the legend has it they stopped working for imax. I'll believe the projector hype when I see it..measured with charts!

The point is, projectors can't display resolution as high as a modern monitor because they lack the contrast ratio, and a flat HD monitor is designed to maximize resolution/definition/c/ratio.. which is why their line skippy SD up-samples look so crap and edgy. The pixels are too "discrete", the CRT blurred them together in a really organic way. I wouldn't mind if they had decent built in gaussian blur filters.. but most don't, just crappy digital tweaks.. and bizarre frame blending interpolation nonsense so idiot filmmakers like that one that filmed hitler outside his bunker in 1945 etc can have their crappy low fps footage corrected by some tv 50years later using a subjective algorithm just so we can make hitler look smoother for a few seconds.. or some David Icke fan sees a news reader/lizard person morphing on live tv.. we need to take control back before TVs start rewriting history (without the need of hollywood screen writers).. that reminds me, I need to go on ebay and look for a proper monitor of the none flat variety free of lizard people
 
As Jeff said. Now you simply have bigger better TVs to notice things, and if you had 42 inch+ accurate crts back then you would have noticed too at similar distances.

Negatives don't negate positives, and a descent FHD TV will show just how crappy SD really allways was, and how wonderful FHD is. Believe me, I've even read the competition giving a much higher real resolution to I Max that was lower than their claimed resolution, than that anti-hype. It probably was a myth or mistake (bad optic setup even) rather than largest frame I Max. The organic, crt blooming is a sloppy technological flaw emulatable on fhd or shd. Maybe the brightness and satuation of the laser projector will be able to give people real blooming again, on their retinas.
 
What's clear is the majority of audio visual content already is, or will in future be, delivered "over the network" to IP connected players.

That does not mean that Broadcast TV, DVD's or Blu-rays or other methods will vanish any time soon. And the "archive" and "slow network"arguments for physical media have merit, which is why RED RAY can support both network and physical delivery....

... however arguments such as "TV won't change", or "people own DVDs or Blue-ray are happy with that", so a new 4K resolution delivery system cannot / will not be adopted by an economically significant community of vendors and customers; that's just FUD.

How big that community will be in X months / years is the only question IMHO.

It's easy to say that the internet is convenient and doesn't have the constraints of physical formats but this ignores the biggest problem that this delivery faces, ISPs.
The internet companies are already annoyed about the amount of bandwidth which netflix causes, imagine what it will be like when everything online is a minimum of 4k, I don't think they will let it happen lightly and you will end up with services which cost a fortune in bandwidth costs and depending on the time of day take either 3 mins to download or 3 hours.
 
The internet companies are already annoyed about the amount of bandwidth which netflix causes, imagine what it will be like when everything online is a minimum of 4k, I don't think they will let it happen lightly and you will end up with services which cost a fortune in bandwidth costs and depending on the time of day take either 3 mins to download or 3 hours.
Most current Blu-ray discs -- which is fairly-compressed 1080, 1/4th the resolution of 4K -- are around 50GB. Try to send 50GB on a "high-speed" internet connection, and let me know how long it takes.

Eventually, we will have this kind of bandwidth. But even at the 25Mbps data rate we have in my neighborhood, it takes an hour or two just to download 1GB. A 50GB Blu-ray disc would take well over a day. I couldn't put a number on how long before this capability will happen, but even if bandwidth goes up 10 times in five years, it'll still take hours to get just Blu-ray quality from point A to point B. Assuming dedicated fiber connections and tons of money, no problem -- but that's a big assumption. If 4K content takes up 4 times more space... that's a lotta data.
 
This is all true, but eventually the cost can become less than a cent. The waveform of an electron should be able to store an unlimited amount of data, or so it was announced years ago. As a technologist science friction writer and designer, this is the level of theoretical I consider. Optical communications should also be able to compress much more data down their pipes. Eventually with increase of method the cost can be reduced. Even though such things sound trendy, in reality, there are practical limitations to getting and keeping the waveform on that electron, though I have sound ideas, the reality, is that no where near unlimited might ever be achieved as for our capability, and eventually so much energy would be required before that point, that said electron could be able to theoretically do a lot of damage to the Earth if it came into contact. Likewise with optical communications there are limitations, you need a channel that is transperent over ever increasing frequency mix (basically maybe an impossibility for normal materials) and ever decreasing losses in energy (either factor will burn through a cable with increasing power eventually, left un-addressed). As I am not a material scientist, I can not give an estimation of likely ultimate capacity of optical cable, but with the reduced bandwidth of Redray, and my own codec ideas, there may well be enough capacity for our needs well past 4k 3d. For the moment, just the primitive redray performance should suite eventual drops in cost, to deliver 4k cheap. A big factor might be optical routing which can skip conversion to electrical signals back and forwards, between the storage device and the users home. Not only are they reportedly immensely on immensely faster than conventional semiconductors for routing they make the process cheaper. 5 years is the time frame to see optical in computers, along with other network advancements. So in 5-10 years the picture could be much clearer. However, I envisage some pretty nifty science and techniques to eliminated some of these obstacles in channels and routing, if only I can get funding and verify a few things.
 
If 4K content takes up 4 times more space... that's a lotta data.

Yeah but it doesn't. Your 50GB Blu-ray disk payload you referenced is more like 16GB on RED RAY.

And if you really have a 25Mb/s download on your internet, that's real time for RED RAY ...

... which in turn tells me your internet provider may be telling porkies :-)
 
Well that tends to be where the market goes. The rise in tech starts slow, the last 100 years was the base-work. This exponential curve will continue to rise rapidly, 1080p is good enough for me. 4k will be that much better when I can afford it.

At the end of the day, I'll still watch old DVDs of my favorite flims. 720x480 aside, content matters. There are so many good old black and white films out there I have never seen or know about. Don't lose site of that.

2012 is shaping up to be the year of 4K.

4K Projectors for the home from more than one manufacturer - 4K TVs from 6 manufacturers that I am aware of. (5 confirmed - 6th is an exciting wild card rumor)

http://smarthouse.com.au/TVs_And_Large_Display/OLED_TV/T8A4B6T8

You can talk all you want about the slow and poor transition to HD - and you can sit there shooting 1080p content and claim that it will be many, many years before we are watching TV shows in 4K - but .... you'd be DEAD WRONG.

Things are VERY different now. TV is the internet. HBO GO has better compression in HD than some carriers. APPLE's VOD numbers for indie films are insane (in a good way). There's COMPETITION to deliver content - Google, Amazon, Apple, Hulu (with more than twice as much as the combined total of video streamed from the websites of ABC, CBS, the CW, Fox and NBC) - so .... delivery platforms will need to differentiate themselves with QUALITY. I'm aware of one early start-up company already working to be the first all 4K broadcast channel.

2012 the 4K dominos will fall.

1080 is the next Black and White. (and yes - you can still make a good movie in black and white ala "The Artist" - but harder when it comes to financing and selling the content)
 
Yeah but it doesn't. Your 50GB Blu-ray disk payload you referenced is more like 16GB on RED RAY. And if you really have a 25Mb/s download on your internet, that's real time for RED RAY ... ... which in turn tells me your internet provider may be telling porkies :-)
Speaking of which, have you guys publicly stated what the data capacity of Red Ray is? Just a GB capacity, plus a Mbps throughput? I'm honestly curious where you're at there.

I don't doubt that Red Ray can work -- I'm skeptical only as a delivery medium for home use, or as a format to sell in stores. For pro dailies and screenings, sure. JPEG2000 can fit on a lot of formats, and the size of the DCPs out there is not ridiculous; I've seen them well under the 50GB capacity of a dual-layer Blu-ray.
 
It will be a real hoot if it is 5d+ wavelet.

Stuart, from prior talk Red ray was less than 10 mb/s and is now below 20mb/s or something, my guess in no small part because noise is niosy to sound good. But it is not really 16GB compared to 50GB, as BD is 1080 instead of 4k.

However, it is possible to break linerarity of compression ratio between two resolutions for similar quality with variouse techniques I have been looking into (yes, it is deliberately obscure as usual) which means shd 4k does not need to be anywhere near 4 times the data rate of 1080 to maintain similar quality. I find even intelliegent people have problems grasping (believing) such concepts as they are usually primitively tied into refining past mechanisms rather than the pure true intelligence of accessing and creating and shaping new effective mechanisms. I have been eagerly waiting for Redray, it is nice to see my old research validated in new products (except when they have been personally illegally copied from my notes, as has happened to me, resulting in some top technologies). If it turns out to be something different than that would be nice too. The more I think about the more new branches of technology open up to me, I could probably define the whoe of space and time in a single wave. The guy from "A Brilliant Mind" failed in defining an algorithm to represent the movements of pigeons because he just was not good enough, if he was he would have quickly realised that mechanisms drive the pigeons behavours, and he could at least have defined a set of equations to roughly aporoximate the mechanisms leading to the movements (including environmental and social interaction of the pigeons) after examiing the mechanisns, enough for AI movement use in modern games. For the inspiration into the economic mechanism that ultimately he became famous for in the history of economics, from memory faiks me, but he won a nobel prize for it didn't he, that is the sort of thing I can come up with taking a single bite of a pea at lunch or tea (ussually too sick at breakfast), somewhat remarkable. People spend so much time not listening to those that know and can see, we are doomed to mediocre progress and we get what they deserve. :)
 
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