Why you may want to hold on to your Scarlet (and pass on the upgrades altogether).

[Marcos Montenegro]

Absurd assumptions-

Wouldn't you rather pay more to use a camera now AND MAKE MONEY, than wait a year to save a few bucks. If you can't make 2K with an Epic in a year you shouldn't be in this business....just saying.

 

[Nick Morrison]

Also don't forget...presumably there will be Battle Tested Scarlets and Epics available once the trade-ins are done....so it's not like you won't be able to "buy back" old brains at a discount anyway...

 

[Bob Gundu]

The Epics are not going to be trade-ins as they will be upgraded. Scarlets... yes.

Also don't forget...presumably there will be Battle Tested Scarlets and Epics available once the trade-ins are done....so it's not like you won't be able to "buy back" old brains at a discount anyway...

 

[Mike P.]

I want Dragon… I do. But if I can buy another Scarlet-X brain (Battle Tested or used) for a third the price of upgrading, I'd much rather have multiple cameras/back-up. If Scarlet-X brains drop to like ~$3k in the spring, I'll likely scoop one up. Bare in mind, it'd have to be ~$3k, otherwise I'd get the BMPC4k* (since I want a full copy of resolve [$995] and overall that camera would be cheaper to own/operate even if I had to buy all new peripherals).

Manufacturers are in a tough spot. I've used a few different 4k and/or raw cameras in the last few months (one being a hacked $500 camera) and I've come to one conclusion: You can get great results from all of them. Brand allegiance is not the smartest move at this point in time. I mean, cellphones are shooting 4k and 120fps these days… It's crazy.

*assuming it hits the market around the same time as the BT Scarlets do.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Here's the thing...

No one can predict the future. And those who try, tend to to so by extrapolating forward from the past. This has, historically, been shown to provide a false sense of "sureness" and fails way more often then it succeeds. The past patterns tend to continue forward... until they don't. Unfortunately, it's very hard to tell when that point in time comes and it is not at all predictable.

So, when you are planning an approach based on several assumptions, which is another word for guesses, and those assumptions have embedded within them several more assumptions (like predicting the behavior of a business and its management when you are not part of that business, when it's decisions are fluid - based on things you don't/can't know, and when its decisions are going to in some way change as a reaction to its environment which is, in and of itself, not predictable.

So, take any number of these assumptions about markets, and those about specific business behavior, and those about individual human behavior, and change them by all just 10% or so, and multiply this effect through the system. You can easily have an outcome that is 180 degrees from where you predicted.

So, if you want to guess at a future and act as if that future was assured, be my guest. I'll hinge my behavior as much as I can on what I know - not what I guess may happen some time in the indefinite future.

On a side note, anyone who comes on RU with their first post and postulates a certain (dubious) set of assumptions while agitating for a certain behavior from the group, to me, is to be suspected as a troll. Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion but when you barge into a room of people who have no idea who you are and start telling them all about the world they know, probably better than you do, then you should expect a very high degree of skepticism and doubt.

 

[Björn Benckert]

I want Dragon… I do. But if I can buy another Scarlet-X brain (Battle Tested or used) for a third the price of upgrading, I'd much rather have multiple cameras/back-up. If Scarlet-X brains drop to like ~$3k in the spring, I'll likely scoop one up. Bare in mind, it'd have to be ~$3k, otherwise I'd get the BMPC4k* (since I want a full copy of resolve [$995] and overall that camera would be cheaper to own/operate even if I had to buy all new peripherals).

Manufacturers are in a tough spot. I've used a few different 4k and/or raw cameras in the last few months (one being a hacked $500 camera) and I've come to one conclusion: You can get great results from all of them. Brand allegiance is not the smartest move at this point in time. I mean, cellphones are shooting 4k and 120fps these days… It's crazy.

*assuming it hits the market around the same time as the BT Scarlets do.

Thats a bit stupid I think, 4k phone recordings are not really to be compared to even the most low cost 4k cameras. And the low cost cameras can not really be compared to the higher end cameras for picture quality, build and demand the cameras out there are to me pretty much dead on when it comes to pricing... Try rent out your 4k phone with a day rate that mach the scarlet, epic or even BMC....

 

[Nick Morrison]

I just want Dragon. I don't care about saving a couple of grand. Having Dragon sooner will probably generate more $$$ anyway.

But to each their own.

 

[Gunleik Groven]

Here is a prediction for you...

I have played with a few cameras
I have played with Dragon, too

I predict that I want a dragon...

(drumroll)

and;
HEY! I am right!

NOW, after playing with it... I predict that there are more people than Phil, Christopher, Peter, Tom, Mark (and all those I have not the faintest clue of) and myself who react the same way...

(new drumroll)

Well... That is just a prediction...

If I am right.,..
The Dragon will hold its price just fine.
Supply and demand will set its futre pricepoint.
Not hypothetical math of how it would have been if it was launched in may... (In the state the Dragon program was in May...)

Did you check the Amiras pricepoint lately?

 

[Terry VerHaar]

I want Dragon… I do. But if I can buy another Scarlet-X brain (Battle Tested or used) for a third the price of upgrading, I'd much rather have multiple cameras/back-up. If Scarlet-X brains drop to like ~$3k in the spring, I'll likely scoop one up. Bare in mind, it'd have to be ~$3k, otherwise I'd get the BMPC4k* (since I want a full copy of resolve [$995] and overall that camera would be cheaper to own/operate even if I had to buy all new peripherals).

Manufacturers are in a tough spot. I've used a few different 4k and/or raw cameras in the last few months (one being a hacked $500 camera) and I've come to one conclusion: You can get great results from all of them. Brand allegiance is not the smartest move at this point in time. I mean, cellphones are shooting 4k and 120fps these days… It's crazy.

*assuming it hits the market around the same time as the BT Scarlets do.

****EVENTUALLY**** smart phone cameras will shoot images as good as Dragon does today. Care to predict when that will happen? :yikes:

And are you willing to wait until that happens to start making images? :lol: That's crazy! :smiley:

 

[Gunleik Groven]

****EVENTUALLY**** smart phone cameras will shoot images as good as Dragon does today. Care to predict when that will happen? :yikes:

And are you willing to wait until that happens to start making images? :lol: That's crazy! :smiley:

Smartphones might well shoot 6k images with a similar or better dynamic range... in a while.

I doubt they will have PL mounts and S35/FF sensors anytime soom...

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Smartphones might well shoot 6k images with a similar or better dynamic range... in a while.

I doubt they will have PL mounts and S35/FF sensors anytime soom...

Haha - you never know - someone (Schneider, I think) is already making some sort of lens adaptor system to hook on an iPhone. :smiley:

EDIT: Here you go:

http://www.iprolens.com

Maybe PL is next. LOL

 

[Mike P.]

Thats a bit stupid I think, 4k phone recordings are not really to be compared to even the most low cost 4k cameras. And the low cost cameras can not really be compared to the higher end cameras for picture quality, build and demand the cameras out there are to me pretty much dead on when it comes to pricing... Try rent out your 4k phone with a day rate that mach the scarlet, epic or even BMC....

Ha… that's not what I meant. I merely meant that that the floodgates are open and before you know it raw FF35 4k, 6k, 8k, etc. sensors with 20stops of DR will be in $1200 camera bodies. There is no stranglehold on cinema cameras any more, and technology doubles every 18months. RED may suffer from delays -- they're still young and (self-admittedly) don't know what they're doing -- but Canon, Panny, Sony, etc. all release new cameras semi-annually… They're gonna deliver new cameras to the shelves faster than RED ever could, and we're just at the start of that happening. In most cases, it probably isn't too wise to invest too heavily in cameras/sensors that are so easily/cheaply replaceable, that's what I'm saying.

In other words, for Dragon/upgrading to be a complete no-brainer, you'd have to be able to earn $9500, ABOVE what you'd have gotten with just MX, in the 6 months before some other new thing comes along or the price invariably drops. For production companies that *should* be doable… For most individual owner/ops, I don't think it's that easy.

In my case specifically, I'll likely be able to charge DOUBLE the kit fee if I have a dual Scarlet-X package, whereas with a single Scarlet-Dragon I'll likely only be able to charge an additional 10% (if that.)

 

[Terry VerHaar]

I hope no one actually believes that self-effacing line from RED anymore. I think RED very well knows what they are doing by now. They just keep pushing the envelope farther and faster than others are willing. :smiley:

 

[stevie D]

Agreed. A lot of assumptions about price dropping. Considering full blown Dragons wont even be available to the public till Spring 2014, I can't see any prices changing till 2015.

And...considering Arri still has to reveal their 4K camera (how much will THAT cost if a 2K Alexa is 60k)...the Dragon Epic could look EVEN more competetive (which Mike I believe is what your hinting at, maybe?)

Even with no assumption of ANY price drops... RED is offering Scarlet owners $19,000 to upgrade to Epic Dragon with no warranty. Much Much better off keeping your Scarlet, and buying a brand new Epic in mid Feb. You pay $5,000, BUT with that $5,000 you get a 3 yr full warranty (if you purchase with your Amex) AND you get to keep your Scarlet. Best part is, if prices do drop come Feb or March, you get to lock that in as well.

Remember the Dragon Epic price was set last April--this April will be a year. No camera company has ever been able to hold camera prices at the same level for much longer than a year. Just because you're only just getting the camera now-- doesn't mean RED can hold prices up for another 2 years. They don't set the market- the competition does. IF RED could have it there way, prices would be at 50K for the next decade. Unfortunately time marches on, and prices drop.

Don't get suckered here... Scarlet owners should not turn their Scarlets back to RED. Unless of course you're happy with an Epic, and need slow motion. Than $9,500 for a brand new Epic camera, isn't a bad deal. There's a reason RED isn't offering the Epic Dragon out for 24k right now. And it's not because RED is taking care of it's current owner base. It's because their pricing doesn't make any sense. Be smart about it, hold on to your Scarlets. IF you want an upgraded camera-- buy an Epic Dragon this Spring-- prices are bound to be down around 22K if not lower.

 

[stevie D]

Though I think the nature of the beginning of this thread may have been slightly aggressive, I am actually leaning that way. My own choice though, not in any way upset at the production time. I would really just love to keep my Scarlet as is and shoot a Dragon Epic. My current Scarlet has proven to be rock solid. Its been a great camera and I have loved working with it. At the same time, before I spend 20K to upgrade to Dragon, the more appealing offer it to spend just a bit more and use the Scarlet as a cam B. Seems logical. Just have to wait a bit longer...thats okay though. Just a bit more time to earn some extra coin towards it.

You're right... my tone is a bit aggressive, because I'm not happy with the fact that the upgrade program I was promised from the beginning was merely a crappy buy back program. If apple sold you an IMac for $5,000 with the idea that it will be a body with upgradeable parts, and the first processor upgrade was offered a year later for $5,000-- you'd realize you were just made a fool out of. You can rationalize it anyway you want, but an upgradeable component costing more than the entire camera is not an upgrade program at all. It's just a way RED saved a whole bunch of money fooling you into thinking you bought a camera that upgrades.

And offering Scarlet owners to pay 19K to upgrade to a camera with no warranty, that at most will cost 24K (w a rock solid 3 yr warranty) in a few months-- just so i can say i was first... well thats not doing me any favors. I get misled and kicked in the nuts often enough. it certainly would've been nice if RED took care of their early adapters and did us a solid-- gave us the upgrade for $6,500- so we don't have to all feel like suckers and get laughed at by sony and arri guys, every time i show up with my Scarlet.

 

[Phil Holland]

Keep in mind there are visual improvements from Scarlet-X compared to the image quality of Epic and Epic Dragon and Scarlet Dragon.

The need for slow motion is merely one part of these equation. Image quality, which honestly should be the #1 priority, is the best reason to upgrade whatever path you want. There is a difference between 5K and 4K. And there's a bigger difference on Dragon.

 

[Vincent Accardi]

For Scarlet to Epic Dragon upgrade you get a one year warranty. Spoke to my BS Rep when we all probably received that email regarding purchasing RED armor.

 

[stevie D]

So, if you want to guess at a future and act as if that future was assured, be my guest. I'll hinge my behavior as much as I can on what I know - not what I guess may happen some time in the indefinite future.

On a side note, anyone who comes on RU with their first post and postulates a certain (dubious) set of assumptions while agitating for a certain behavior from the group, to me, is to be suspected as a troll. Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion but when you barge into a room of people who have no idea who you are and start telling them all about the world they know, probably better than you do, then you should expect a very high degree of skepticism and doubt.

sounds smart, but you're not really saying anything... saying you'll hinge your buying behavior on what you know rings hollow when their are variables and guess work on both sides of the equation. Making an informed decision requires one to weigh each variable.

-- by trading in your reliable RED Scarlet for a RED Epic Dragon with no warranty, you make the assumption that this new camera with this new sensor doesn't have problems in 5 months-- maybe costing you thousands of dollars in repairs. IF RED does give new Scarlet upgrades a year warranty. that's better. But it's not the 3 years you'd get buying a new one with an Amex.

-- you assume that RED Epic Dragon prices are going to hold up over time. Meaning you're hoping. Of course prices will drop-- when is the only question. IF they drop in April, a year after they were set-- then you made a bad decision losing your Scarlet.

-- you assume clients will want an Epic Dragon. I make more money renting out my Mark III then the Scarlet-- why? More people can afford it-- so it rents out 20 times a month. Scarlet only rents out 5 times a month. The Epic rarely rents out more than the Scarlet unless a client wants slow motion. In my experience-- clients won't pay $800 more a day for a Dragon Epic over a Scarlet.

I've had multiple RED cameras for years.. I'm pretty sure I have more RED gear than you.. sorry I run multiple production companies in Manhattan-- don't have time to write hundreds of posts a month on a RED forum.

My two cents based on a decade of owning high end digital cameras--- don't get rushed into the next big thing until it's proven. If you have a Scarlet-- keep it. It's a great camera. IF RED Epic Dragon proves itself in the market place over the next 6 months-- go buy one. You'll at most pay $2,500 more than your paying now (if you factor in the warranty issue). And you'll know if it's the right choice, instead of needing to make all these assumptions.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Sorry stevie - it's a lot of blah blah blah blah. I am sure you are a media mogul beyond compare. LOL Do what you think is going to work for you. Make all the assumptions you want and act on them several months in advance. Right ow, I am keeping my Scarlet. (Gee, we agree there.) I'll very probably upgrade to Epic in Q1/14. After that, we'll see. I may end up doing exactly what you end up doing - but I am not making that decision now.

And, not incidentally, I am not going to get in a pissing war with RED about their policies since I respect their challenges and believe they do they best they can for their customers. Of course, in your case, I wouldn't count on any special treatment going forward. :laugh:

 

[Alex Rawet]

I *think* that any Red Armour/original warranty left on upgraded cameras is transferred over to the Dragon upgraded body and you have the option of buying further Red Armour that adds on afterwards any current time has expired - this was changed from the 90 days things/clarified further a month or so back