it's a complicated formula-- with many variables including estimated price drops over the next year, and projecting secondary market prices for used RED cameras. Accordingly this isn't an exact science. But my estimation here is that Scarlet owners should not upgrade at all. Let's go over some of the basics of what we know
1) Price now for a new Epic X Dragon is $24,000
This price was set back in April, when everyone thought the camera would be available May 1. You still can't even buy an Epic Dragon on the site. Let's just say by January, RED has it together and you can start buying RED Dragon cameras. That's 9 months later. Meaning RED is due for major price cuts- just the same as if the camera came out in april, and 9 months went by. The price of 24K was based on a spring 2013 camera, that was suppose to blow everything out of the water. Now we're talking winter 2014. And as impressive as the RED Dragon camera is-- it absolutely has not had the industry effect of "we just took over the world" that RED was hoping for. Partly because of the delays, partly because of competition.
2) Delay in Scarlet Dragon upgrades.
Dragon upgrades may not happen until winter. again-- the $9,500 upgrade price was based on the Spring 2013 market. Now were talking 9 months later. Sorry, RED doesn't get to freeze the market for 9 months just because they couldn't get their new sensor to work. Cameras are like computers now, prices are always dropping. For RED to have taken deposits for cameras they couldn't deliver on in a timely fashion-- that's not terribly fair. Like every other company in a competitive market place, RED needs to pay for their production delays. Meaning- if RED was projecting to get a year of holding their RED to a 24k price tag-- they don't get to extend that to 18 months because they were late 6 months.
3) Strategic delays by RED doesn't change basic economics.
It seems that RED isn't currently sellinging the Epic Dragon (which they can obviously make), in the attempt to coral as many of the current Epic and Scarlet owners into upgrading. The logic being, there is no one else that can buy it, so current owners, at these Spring 2013 prices are the only one's that can have it. It's smart thinking-- if you could simply buy the Epic Dragon for 24K, why would you spend 19K and trade in your Scarlet to buy it? Again, this little delay here is an attempt to encourage as many people as they can to push into the new sensor. So much so, they're upholding any new buyers from getting in. But its an illusion-- soon they'll have to open up sales to everyone, and prices will have to come down.
4) The actual price RED is giving you to upgrade your Scarlet to EPIC Dragon is nothing.
RED Scarlet upgrade to EPIC Dragon is $19,000. You get no real warranty with this upgrade. You will soon be able to buy a RED Epic Dragon for $24,000, comes with a 2 yr warranty. IF you purchase on an Amex card, they'll give an extra year. which means RED is actually buying back your RED Scarlet body for $5,000 minus whatever value you put on a 2 - 3 yr warranty ($2000?), minus whatever you think market price for the RED should be considering that the RED pricing is soon to be 9 months old.
5) RED Epic Dragon prices, come Jan /Feb, should fall to $22,000. Prices are coming down. That's the nature of the business. If RED doesn't bring down the price, then they're overpricing their cameras. Way too much competition coming in now for RED to be able to hold up this pricing.
6) RED overpriced this upgrade from the start. Scarlet upgrade to Dragon should've been $6,500. A new sensor upgrade shouldn't cost more than a brand new Scarlet body.
7) RED has implemented a few things to push you into falling into the Scarlet to Dragon Epic trap.
One is by saying that the upgrade program is for a limited time. Smart. By dong so, cuts off the time you have to upgrade later when prices come down. Except for the fact that we still can't upgrade to Dragon. At some point RED has to be accountable for this delay, by reflecting a price that is more in tune with the time. This is no longer April 2013. The other thing RED has done is to say that the RED Scarlet can't be upgraded past Dragon Scarlet. That's them pushing you into the Epic, with the idea that they'll get you to spring from Epic to Dragon Epic. But we've already shown that that course is them buying back your Scarlet for nothing.
7) Epic Dragon prices will come down, but Epic upgrades to Dragon won't.
This is how RED will get Scarlet owners that upgraded to Epic to Epic Dragon. Let's just assume by next summer Epic Dragon will be at $19,950. But that doesn't mean the upgrade price will go down from $9,500. RED will know that all current Epic owners will have little choice as they'll put out a deadline. And if you don't upgrade your epic, much like scarlet, it will never be upgradeable again.
So what are our options??
1) Scarlet upgrading to Epic, to later upgrade to Epic Dragon (19K path). This is a poor economic course of action. Again, it's RED buying back your Scarlet for very little. If you're dying for an Epic Dragon, then wait a few months and buy one- keep both cameras. or wait til the first big price drop, and buy. My estimation is that the price pressure is already on RED-- 6 months has gone by, and prices intrinsically drop over time. I'd say fair value for the Epic Dragon, when it gets out this winter will be around $22,000. With the buy in price of 19K, and the extra warranty (2K)- means that RED is handing you a $1,000 for your scarlet body.
2) upgrading to Scarlet Dragon. I think it's a great course. but not for $9,500. maybe in April. But come January / Feb, why would i pay the same price? For $6,500, i think its a good move
3) upgrading to Epic, and staying at Epic. Slow motion is cool-- but not worth 10k. Even with it being a brand new camera. In a year, when RED tells current Epic owners that their camera's can no longer be upgraded- their value will plummet.
Best option for Scarlet owners is to sit on your hands and do nothing. Let RED come to us with something better. They can't ignore the huge profits to be made on us. Give us a good price, i'll happily concede my hard earned money. But you charge me what i paid for my Scarlet for just a sensor... at the same price from 9 months ago (this Jan)... now i feel like i'm being taken for a ride. Remember, this is a zero sum game. what is the best economic path for RED, is the worst path for you. The best path for RED is for you to fall into the - trade in your Scarlet and upgrade to Epic Dragon trap. Don't fall for it. Keep your Scarlet-- it's a great camera, and will be worth 5K or more for many years to come. In a year you'll thank me. And if you think doing the upgrades will get you your money back in rentals-- go ask your local camera shop. Trend has been clear- Epic rentals have been drying up with Sony and ARRI taking the lead. If you're counting on a RED Dragon upgrade to pay back the 20k you just layed out-- you may be disappointed.
bweitz77
1) Price now for a new Epic X Dragon is $24,000
This price was set back in April, when everyone thought the camera would be available May 1. You still can't even buy an Epic Dragon on the site. Let's just say by January, RED has it together and you can start buying RED Dragon cameras. That's 9 months later. Meaning RED is due for major price cuts- just the same as if the camera came out in april, and 9 months went by. The price of 24K was based on a spring 2013 camera, that was suppose to blow everything out of the water. Now we're talking winter 2014. And as impressive as the RED Dragon camera is-- it absolutely has not had the industry effect of "we just took over the world" that RED was hoping for. Partly because of the delays, partly because of competition.
2) Delay in Scarlet Dragon upgrades.
Dragon upgrades may not happen until winter. again-- the $9,500 upgrade price was based on the Spring 2013 market. Now were talking 9 months later. Sorry, RED doesn't get to freeze the market for 9 months just because they couldn't get their new sensor to work. Cameras are like computers now, prices are always dropping. For RED to have taken deposits for cameras they couldn't deliver on in a timely fashion-- that's not terribly fair. Like every other company in a competitive market place, RED needs to pay for their production delays. Meaning- if RED was projecting to get a year of holding their RED to a 24k price tag-- they don't get to extend that to 18 months because they were late 6 months.
3) Strategic delays by RED doesn't change basic economics.
It seems that RED isn't currently sellinging the Epic Dragon (which they can obviously make), in the attempt to coral as many of the current Epic and Scarlet owners into upgrading. The logic being, there is no one else that can buy it, so current owners, at these Spring 2013 prices are the only one's that can have it. It's smart thinking-- if you could simply buy the Epic Dragon for 24K, why would you spend 19K and trade in your Scarlet to buy it? Again, this little delay here is an attempt to encourage as many people as they can to push into the new sensor. So much so, they're upholding any new buyers from getting in. But its an illusion-- soon they'll have to open up sales to everyone, and prices will have to come down.
4) The actual price RED is giving you to upgrade your Scarlet to EPIC Dragon is nothing.
RED Scarlet upgrade to EPIC Dragon is $19,000. You get no real warranty with this upgrade. You will soon be able to buy a RED Epic Dragon for $24,000, comes with a 2 yr warranty. IF you purchase on an Amex card, they'll give an extra year. which means RED is actually buying back your RED Scarlet body for $5,000 minus whatever value you put on a 2 - 3 yr warranty ($2000?), minus whatever you think market price for the RED should be considering that the RED pricing is soon to be 9 months old.
5) RED Epic Dragon prices, come Jan /Feb, should fall to $22,000. Prices are coming down. That's the nature of the business. If RED doesn't bring down the price, then they're overpricing their cameras. Way too much competition coming in now for RED to be able to hold up this pricing.
6) RED overpriced this upgrade from the start. Scarlet upgrade to Dragon should've been $6,500. A new sensor upgrade shouldn't cost more than a brand new Scarlet body.
7) RED has implemented a few things to push you into falling into the Scarlet to Dragon Epic trap.
One is by saying that the upgrade program is for a limited time. Smart. By dong so, cuts off the time you have to upgrade later when prices come down. Except for the fact that we still can't upgrade to Dragon. At some point RED has to be accountable for this delay, by reflecting a price that is more in tune with the time. This is no longer April 2013. The other thing RED has done is to say that the RED Scarlet can't be upgraded past Dragon Scarlet. That's them pushing you into the Epic, with the idea that they'll get you to spring from Epic to Dragon Epic. But we've already shown that that course is them buying back your Scarlet for nothing.
7) Epic Dragon prices will come down, but Epic upgrades to Dragon won't.
This is how RED will get Scarlet owners that upgraded to Epic to Epic Dragon. Let's just assume by next summer Epic Dragon will be at $19,950. But that doesn't mean the upgrade price will go down from $9,500. RED will know that all current Epic owners will have little choice as they'll put out a deadline. And if you don't upgrade your epic, much like scarlet, it will never be upgradeable again.
So what are our options??
1) Scarlet upgrading to Epic, to later upgrade to Epic Dragon (19K path). This is a poor economic course of action. Again, it's RED buying back your Scarlet for very little. If you're dying for an Epic Dragon, then wait a few months and buy one- keep both cameras. or wait til the first big price drop, and buy. My estimation is that the price pressure is already on RED-- 6 months has gone by, and prices intrinsically drop over time. I'd say fair value for the Epic Dragon, when it gets out this winter will be around $22,000. With the buy in price of 19K, and the extra warranty (2K)- means that RED is handing you a $1,000 for your scarlet body.
2) upgrading to Scarlet Dragon. I think it's a great course. but not for $9,500. maybe in April. But come January / Feb, why would i pay the same price? For $6,500, i think its a good move
3) upgrading to Epic, and staying at Epic. Slow motion is cool-- but not worth 10k. Even with it being a brand new camera. In a year, when RED tells current Epic owners that their camera's can no longer be upgraded- their value will plummet.
Best option for Scarlet owners is to sit on your hands and do nothing. Let RED come to us with something better. They can't ignore the huge profits to be made on us. Give us a good price, i'll happily concede my hard earned money. But you charge me what i paid for my Scarlet for just a sensor... at the same price from 9 months ago (this Jan)... now i feel like i'm being taken for a ride. Remember, this is a zero sum game. what is the best economic path for RED, is the worst path for you. The best path for RED is for you to fall into the - trade in your Scarlet and upgrade to Epic Dragon trap. Don't fall for it. Keep your Scarlet-- it's a great camera, and will be worth 5K or more for many years to come. In a year you'll thank me. And if you think doing the upgrades will get you your money back in rentals-- go ask your local camera shop. Trend has been clear- Epic rentals have been drying up with Sony and ARRI taking the lead. If you're counting on a RED Dragon upgrade to pay back the 20k you just layed out-- you may be disappointed.
bweitz77
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