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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

The 4K "Apple Problem"

Rob Anderson

Rob Anderson

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Two big things;

Problem #1: Apple, Netflix, and Amazon have 1080 content delivery pinned down. We know Apple and Netflix will outright resist the migration to 4K. Without getting 4K content on Apple iTunes and Netflix streaming services, this 'revolution' will take quite a lot longer than any of us hope.

**Eric points out below Netflix is already testing 4K streaming. Nice!

Problem #2: We know Apple has been working on and prototyping a full-blown Apple TV for quite some time. It's hinted at in the 2011 Jobs biography and it's been rumored for years now. We also know a few specifics (likely panel manufacturer, a few interface/interactive cues) and the current Apple TV "hockey puck" gives us insight into how content will be displayed. I think all of us also know there is no way the Apple television is going to be a UHD panel. Certainly not the first generation and probably not the second or even third. Keep in mind, Apple only just last year (2012) introduced 1080p with their fourth Apple TV generation. When the Apple television hits (and I think we should all reason it certainly will hit and hit large), it will choke off the rising tide of 4K screens for years to come.

These are the two biggest problems, in my mind -- both pointing back to Apple -- that will keep 4K out of the homes for years. Everything else (price, hardware, content) will be and is already in the process of being addressed. But I don't see anywhere how these two problems -- the biggest issues in fact -- are being tackled.

Thoughts?
 
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Eric Cameron said:
Actually, Netflix is already demoing 4K streaming (http://www.bleedingcool.com/2013/01...igh-definition-next-generation-image-quality/), and there are whispers that there are prototype "Apple TV" sets with full 4k support. I don't think Apple or Netflix will remotely hinder 4K adoption. If anything, they could speed it up.
Click to expand...

Wow! The Netflix story is great. I had completely missed that announcement. Good stuff.

As for the Apple television having 4K UHD support... It's not going to happen. Not this first generation. Guarantee it.
 
Apple's been testing 4K for a long while now.

I think what we are seeing is a bit of the "wild west" mentality when it comes to UHD and how we're going to view and get content. There's no precedent established which is giving rise to unique platform solutions, which to me is exciting.

Within the next few months we'll be seeing a fully fledged ODEMAX/REDRAY solution and likely seeing the announcement of Sony's and Microsoft's game plan. Sony's plan is a bit more predictable as it's been on the road map for a long time. It's just happening about two years sooner than the initial concept.

Content security needs to be examined carefully. .RED and how ODEMAX handles that sounds pretty good to me. I'm happy that Red has made their own high quality codec. This is important for quality theatrical and home delivery.

The other guys have been sort of trying to figure out how not to reinvent the wheel though. Many have been testing, developing, and waiting for H.265 to get a bit more standardized.

Literally yesterday the ITU agreed on first-stage approval for ITU-T H.265 or ISO/IEC 23008-2.

http://www.itu.int/net/pressoffice/press_releases/2013/01.aspx#.UQSxwr9EF8E

Now that this ball is rolling we're going to see things move a bit faster on the Apple, Sony, and Microsoft front. Other developers as well. I'm very curious to see exactly what Time Warner and DirectTV are going to do though. There will be some new names jumping into the bounce house too.

UHD has been standardized and it's waiting for people to feed it.
 
Everything you posted, Phil, hits on the part of the 'problem' that I readily agree is solved or is already in the process of being solved. What you didn't address however is the Apple part of this problem. You said Apple's been testing 4K for a while now, but that's just not true or (at best) totally an unconfirmed rumor.

Nothing Apple offers today supports UHD resolution. They've abandoned 30" monitors and only just, in 2012, finally introduced 1080p delivery for the Apple TV hockey pucks. Nothing in iTunes supports 4K and even the content they do offer at 1080 still only equates to about half of what's in their inventory.

History, Apple tradition, Apple's "built in flaw" product cycle, marketing, content, support, and everything else clearly dictates the Apple television will NOT be 4K. Certainly not in the first generation and probably not even in the second. If Apple is even considering UHD right now, you can bet it won't be for a long while to come.
 
rob... i'm not sure you have any idea what you're talking about. 'problem' solved. :)
 
Let's leave it at an unconfirmed rumor then :)

What i can say is that H.265 and HDMI 2.0 getting "locked down" is sort of a big deal for everybody who is making magical boxes and software based services for UHD content.
 
4K will happen, and as Phil has mentioned previous times, the only company LEADING the 4K charge (Besides RED obviously) is Apple with their Retina displays. They're making consumers more and more hungry for smaller pixel densities and they started it with their display in the iPhone 4. It's clear it's a marketable trend and one that can be profited off of. More always = better.

The switch from 1080P to 4K is going to happen faster than anyone thought, and in the form of mobile displays to computer screens and then TV displays. Broadband networks are getting beefier and soon everyone will have access to a pipe big enough to stream 4K live.
 
I'm really curious to see what happens with H.265.

I've seen .RED projected in 4K and for me it's a true cinema delivery codec. Red has done a stellar job with making a single file container for that. Clears up a lot of things for theatrical delivery in my mind.

What we experience on Netflix and Hulu at the moment is convenience and not necessarily the best quality. Which is fine. We had to start somewhere. There's a great deal of cable content that's all 720p out there. Also not so great.

With the nature of what UHD is quality is going to be an important theme to sell devices. Important both on the delivery and playback side of things as well as the content itself.

Let's not forget Google. They're coming to play too.
 
Google has been delivering (relatively awful) 4K on youtube for years now. As for Apple looking to make a 4K tv being unconfirmed rumors, of course it is unconfirmed rumor. Everything with Apple is until they make a shipping announcement. That being said, I wouldn't be quite so confident about guaranteeing that the first generation of their possible TV set won't be 4K. I would go so far as to say that if they do indeed ship such a product, it almost definitely WILL be 4K of some flavor. But think what you want. I think that all interested parties are going to push 4K as hard as they can, because of the simple fact that they think they can make money off of it. In three years, most 1080P TV panel fabrication lines will probably be shut down, maybe sooner. I wouldn't worry about 4K not becoming a reality for consumers. The only real barrier is plain old broadcast TV. There is nothing on the visible horizon for OTA 4K, and cable companies will likely be almost as slow to adopt any kind of 4K distribution methods as they were for HD. But streaming is a different matter entirely.
 
Phil Holland said:
With the nature of what UHD is quality is going to be an important theme to sell devices. Important both on the delivery and playback side of things as well as the content itself.
Click to expand...

That's the bit where I don't see Apple making the leap to 4K anytime soon. For one, they have every incentive not to. Why release a 4K Apple television now when they can release a 1080 one, make a bundle and get customers acquainted with the product. Iron out their sales, support, and repair lines, and finesse the product with software updates. Much later, release a 4K updated version. Second, iTunes content. Still limited to 1080 and more than half of their content is <= 720. Last, content, codec, delivery, bandwidth all need more time to get sorted. Apple is in no rush to be an early 4K player. Everything about their strategy, past and present, says they will be late to the 4K game and it will hold the lines back.

Eric Cameron said:
In three years, most 1080P TV panel fabrication lines will probably be shut down, maybe sooner.
Click to expand...
Absolutely agree. True for most, I'm sure.

Eric Cameron said:
I wouldn't worry about 4K not becoming a reality for consumers.
Click to expand...

I have no doubt that it will. The problem I list here is of the "how soon will that happen" variety and I'm definitely seeing Apple pushing things out quite a bit longer than would otherwise need be. I've got zero confidence in Apple jumping on the 4K bandwagon because it's just not something they do, right off. They've got their own tempo and it's iToy driven. There's no reason to doubt the same won't be true of their television, whenever it finally arrives.
Eric Cameron said:
The only real barrier is plain old broadcast TV.
Click to expand...

Well said. If I added a #3 problem to my list, it would be broadcast TV. Absolutely agree.
Shervin Mandgaryan said:
4K will happen, and as Phil has mentioned previous times, the only company LEADING the 4K charge (Besides RED obviously) is Apple with their Retina displays.
Click to expand...
Got to disagree with you there. Beyond the obvious statement "4K will happen" (which is obviously not the point I'm making here, let's not forget I've got a RED Epic shop and we're all RED/4k-5k+ customers and/or enthusiasts of some kind). I don't see Apple leading the 4K charge at all. The maximum resolution afforded by Apple is still 2560x1600.

Come on man, Apple's been selling (along with just about every other monitor manufacturer on the planet) 2560x1600 since 2004! The only difference Retina makes is pixel density. We can now stuff that resolution into a 13" monitor (instead of 30). We're still nowhere near 4K with Apple and there's been zero movement in that direction, Retina or not.
 
I'm curious what type of encoding will the 4k blurays use. These blurays are coming in the next generation of consoles. The question is will they came with HDMI 2 or not. These machines are pandora boxes for content distribution for the next 7 years, at least...
 
Sergio Perez said:
I'm curious what type of encoding will the 4k blurays use. These blurays are coming in the next generation of consoles. The auestio is will they came with HDMI 2 or not. These machines are pandora boxes for content distribution for the next 7 years, at least...
Click to expand...
Sergio, that's a great point and one I hadn't considered yet. While an Apple television would certainly 'hold back the line', consoles would add tremendously to that. From the details RED has shared regarding RED RAY, I'm not sure HDMI 2.0 is a requirement, but certainly 4K support (at least for BR content) would be a factor.
 
Rob Anderson said:
Wow! The Netflix story is great. I had completely missed that announcement. Good stuff.

As for the Apple television having 4K UHD support... It's not going to happen. Not this first generation. Guarantee it.
Click to expand...

Is that a money back guarantee? ;)

like everyone else, you're making wild speculation and trying to pass it off as fact. You play up the data that supports your conclusion, and downplay the data that does not.

Apple will do what Apple will do. When Steve Jobs was at the helm they were about premium products, creating markets and leading with cutting edge technology. They were first out with retina phones and tablets, and a 4k TV is effectively a Retina display.

What it will ultimately come down to is whether or not they can hit their price target with a 4k panel. If they can do it and maintain their healthy margins, they will put it in.

My guess is that this is why we haven't seen an Apple TV set yet. They have the "itech" to make it happen - Steve Jobs said he'd solved the TV issue - and 1080p screens are a dime a dozen... so why hasn't it appeared? What are the components that are holding them back from releasing it? I would hazard a guess that it's the price of the 4k display that they want to put into it. They may settle on a 1080p display, but that will hurt their premium image and margins.
 
I cant imagine anyone not trying to get the first 4k laptop or imac whatever out ASAP
 
If we're focused on talking about today everything you are saying makes sense Rob. Is the main question here "will Apple make a UHD Apple TV and/or support UHD through the iTunes store?". If so, the answer's going to be yes on one of those at least, but likely yes for both options. Is their next launched device going to be UHD ready? I have no idea. Are they developing a bunch of 4K stuff right now that won't be ready for a while? Likely.

We're currently living in a world of tomorrow. From a marketing standpoint is it going to be viable to launch an HD only device and service? Product cycles usually last about 2-3 years on that front. I don't think it's a wise move to rely on HD being a state of the art device at the moment. Everybody right now is planning out the next 10 years of "standard" content. UHD players will still support 1080p content for the most part by upscaling. If I was developing a new product right now I'd be making a box that supports UHD 4K and HD resolutions. Similar to REDRAY honestly.

The allure of the future HDMI 2.0 spec is hitting that lovely magic spot of UHD 4K at 60fps. Which may or may not be important for motion picture work (although it's looking like it will be), but will certainly be important for gaming and live event broadcasting.

This is all getting hammered out right now. April-June will be very exciting months. ODEMAX/REDRAY, NAB, E3. 4K is now here. Almost like a bucket showing up on your doorstep with a note attached saying "Fill me up". Everybody knows what they want to put in that bucket, they are just trying to figure out how to put it in.
 
Colin Sheldon said:
Is that a money back guarantee? ;)
Click to expand...
Sure. Being that I'm in Vegas, how about we bet on it?

Resolution has never been an Apple priority. "Retina" is an Apple brand-name for a natural progression for displays and every other manufacturer has been doing it too. Pixel density has been getting better ever since the first digital monitor. This isn't anything new at all. Nor is it an Apple invention or exclusive to them.

Apple cut out their 30" monitor 3 years ago and they are only just now getting back to offering 2560x1600 res. Further, to date, there are still no first-party Apple solutions for viewing anything other than 1080p H.264 compressed content. Apple has stated multiple times 720p is plenty for the home and being that 1080p only just arrived in 2012, they're in no hurry. Still lots and lots of 1080p content to sell to home users.

Yep, I'll take that bet. No 4K on Apple's first television, if it drops any time in the next year. If they sit on it for another couple of years like they already have, sure. By then maybe. But otherwise, we're going to see 1080p and (at best) an Apple-hybrid thing they'll call "Retina Movies" or something in the 2.5K range.
 
Rob Anderson said:
Nothing Apple offers today supports UHD resolution. They've abandoned 30" monitors and only just, in 2012, finally introduced 1080p delivery for the Apple TV hockey pucks.
Click to expand...

What are you on about? The only stand-alone monitor they sell is 27" and has the same horizontal resolution as the 30" did (2560 px).

Rob Anderson said:
History, Apple tradition, Apple's "built in flaw" product cycle, marketing, content, support, and everything else clearly dictates the Apple television will NOT be 4K. Certainly not in the first generation and probably not even in the second. If Apple is even considering UHD right now, you can bet it won't be for a long while to come.
Click to expand...

Apple is the one manufacturer in the computer space pushing ahead with high-density displays, and were one of the first in the mobile space...

I don't think Apple really is going to release a TV, but if they are, I wouldn't be too surprised if it were 4K.
 
4k is what's going to make us replae our TV's all over. 1080 (and before that "HD-Ready") markets are saturated, and thus we will see UHD, maybe "8k-ready" and 8k over the next 5-10 years.

THAT is not the big mystery.

But what platform will win the delivery is allways an interesting match to observe
 
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