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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Our Industry Is Changing (4K and 4K+ coming to homes and devices)

Phil Holland

Phil Holland

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From my instagram post late last night:

"To my friends in the motion picture industry who might have missed the news in November 2017. The FCC authorized the ATSC 3.0 standards, something that took over 5 years to do. Those letters might mean nothing to you now, but what this does mean is a new broadcast standard with an internet protocol backbone is coming. The specs at the moment describe UHD 4K @ up to 120 fps and UHD 8K up to 60 fps w/ HDR support and every other lower res standard as well. While this is a heartbeat away from the US at the moment, take notice that it's already being deployed in South Korea. Much of this will take effect by the end of the year with most television manufacturers. By the end of next year it's going to a different planet industry-wide and streaming is already "there", but this was a big Boulder to move to get broadcast there. Just something worth paying attention to if you are shooting anything in the next year or two."

Just circling back to Netflix, it is massive what they've accomplished particular with 4K and HDR. When Netflix started and gained traction their "target" was to be the streaming HBO both in produced and licensed content. They have done that and now even HBO has a streaming service. Now everybody else wants to be Netflix. The premium they charge for UHD 4K in home btw more than enough pays for 4K delivery, I can only see them go to 8K from here in a couple of years if they want to keep to that model.

On that somewhat distant future side of things, 8K streaming starts at the end of the year with a trickle, then the dam cracks a bit more open in 2019, further still in 2020 by a fair amount due to the Olympics and other things happening. Budgets for productions finishing in 8K have been around for about 2 years now and it's a slow, but growing trend outside of the "norm" currently.

Of interest on the mobile and in home streaming front. 1080p to devices is being pushed as "normal" shortly. The 3-ish MB/s it takes to stream UHD 4K in "good quality" becomes easier Q3 of this year. The biggest questions now are how ISPs and mobile providers will price newer and higher speed tiers for both landline and 5G. Midway through the year we should hear that 125MB/s (gigabit) is the entry level of premium internet for both landline and mobile.

I'm not saying sub-4K capture and 2K delivery is dead, but for much of the level of work we're talking about I would say it'd dead within 2-4 years now.

Stay tuned for prettier pictures after these words from our sponsors.
 
Of course, low budget productions can get by with lower resolutions. It's arguably better to shoot a BM 2.5K than a compressed 4K camera such as a Panasonic - although I don't know what options they have. But OTOH, RED ONEs are cheap if one is willing to put up with the heavier body.
 
Phil Holland said:
Much of this will take effect by the end of the year with most television manufacturers. By the end of next year it's going to a different planet industry-wide and .. Just something worth paying attention to if you are shooting anything in the next year or two."
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I heard that line before , regarding 3D - didn't went too well, to say the least (and yeah, I told everybody so back than)

And given the fact, that most content is watched on phones (or tablets at best) these days, I don't know how 8k would be of any benefit here, unless they issue a new and improved pair of eyes with every device.

HDR is still a mess right now, and has a long way to go - manufacturers need get their shit straight first.

And don't get me into high frame rates.
 
Phil Holland said:
Of interest on the mobile and in home streaming front. 1080p to devices is being pushed as "normal" shortly. The 3-ish MB/s it takes to stream UHD 4K in "good quality" becomes easier Q3 of this year. The biggest questions now are how ISPs and mobile providers will price newer and higher speed tiers for both landline and 5G. Midway through the year we should hear that 125MB/s (gigabit) is the entry level of premium internet for both landline and mobile.
...
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I'm seeing almost all of these wacko high end requirements from mobile and streaming. Also I think it's wacko initially, until I see a demo with different resolutions, and go ... well I guess it does need 4k+ for a compelling experience. These phone guys btw are crazy on what they are doing, it's hugely amazing and they are totally going for stretch goals (which I'm not even sure are doable). RED hydrogen is a good example of this, but when I look at the NPU's and GPU upgrades with lower heat/batter I'm impressed generally at the insanely big mindset. The mindset of the "TV" click is growing linearly, but I mean the TV side is progressing but it's not exponential like on the mobile/streaming stuff.
 
Without firm FCC backing - there was a fear that ATSC 3.0 roll-out will be painfully slow because of 'excessive' costs per station, and possible lack of consumer interest.

https://www.tvb.org/Portals/0/media/file/WideOrbit-Report_ATSC3.0.pdf

With Apple et al driving people to 'experience' content in 4K/HDR (eg '18 Winter Olympics) - I think it's going to light a fire under Station execs.

And if Stations believe the not-insignificant migration costs will most likely be covered by expanded and simultaneous-cross-platform advertising - they probably want to be early adopters - or risk advertisers voting with their feet.

AJ
 
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Frank Glencairn said:
I heard that line before......
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The biggest obstacle 3D had/has to overcome is the casual viewing experience. Which maintains why it works decently profit-wise in theaters versus the home. That all changes shortly and we'll see if it's going to pack the punch this time around.

Resolution is outside of that conversation by a large margin. If you are telling me that 4K isn't being adopted more and more and "won't catch on", I'm sorry to tell you how wrong that perspective is. On 8K we are still in the earliest of days, sort of when HD or 4K were initially announced in homes. It will be marketed and sold as the premium viewing and exhibition medium. The proof is in the pudding and everybody who has seen proper 4K "knows" it looks better than HD,. Recently many got to do the 8K/4K side by side and let me tell you, the crowds had lots to say.

The key thing here is all this tech doesn't need to be invented essentially like when HD came to market, it is just in a process of refinement, improvement, and optimization while congruently becoming less expensive to do much more.

HDR isn't that broken, some implimintations are just fine. But the tech and authoring needs to mature.

HFR is another thing, but I think most of the industry understands where some of the benefits and faults land and we'll be seeing the tech explored possibly more responsibly moving forward to focus on where it works best.

I'm a gambling man Frank. Have been for 20 years of my career thus far and have been rather public about my thoughts over that time. Thus far I haven't been wrong (luckily?), but it helps to know where things are going and working for those who are putting a lot of effort to get there not to just sell products, but to enhance the viewing experience and level if immersion stories can provide. I'm not shooting 8K and 12K right now to satisfy some twisted ego or commerical driven agenda, I see the difference and the clients I shoot for do too.

Content is king, but if you present it well people will feel they are in the castle as well.
 
Antony Newman said:
W

With Apple et al driving people to 'experience' content in 4K/HDR (eg '18 Winter Olympics) - I think it's going to light a fire under Station execs.
Click to expand...

Than maybe Apple should start with, enabling 4k Youtube videos on the 4k AppleTV ;-)
 
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Phil Holland said:
Well goly gosh Frank you're right:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.macrumors.com/2018/02/07/apple-tv-youtube-app-redesign/amp/

Welcome to the now.

Oops. Not quite enabled yet. Stay tuned. They must be labelling those 4K videos for a "reason".
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Phil, any insight on how the new standards will relate to layered visuals? My understanding is that 4v will take a source resolution and apply it vertically, so 8k it would seem could give us even better holographic output. Probably a goodly number of years before that becomes commonplace, but curious if any of the people you talk to have considered this?
 
My inner Utopian plea...

My inner Utopian plea...

Not counting on it, but with an actual published standard (ATSC 3.0) and some experience over the last decade of SD>HD>UHD(with or without HDR) migration challenges, there is an opportunity for the industry to create an 8K ready ecosystem. In theory, broadcasters/distributors/producers tired of buying expensive new hardware every few years could bite the bullet and invest in hardware with enough forecast lifespan to actually ROI it.

NAB 2018 should be an interesting look at where we are in terms of available (actually shipping by Q4'18) and affordable 8K capable tools. For the many players who have stayed at 720/1080 until they actually pay off their HD gear, a move straight to 8K capable infrastructure would allow them to avoid repeating the same crunch with paying off UHD/4K hardware before 8K becomes the expectation of the most desirable audiences (those who have enough purchasing power to buy other upscale items).

FWIW, if I was speccing out a production/post/distribution facility upgrade from HD I'd be wary of core hardware pieces that could never support 8K. My suggestion to the hardware vendors: build devices that have I/O capable of 8K - even if it's not initially enabled. Kind of like an electrician putting in 200AMP service even if the current draw (pun intended) is only 40AMPs. Full disclosure - I'm one of those weirdos who is always looking for ways to slow the speed at which we create electronic waste full of heavy metals, toxic chemicals, etc. To me, having to upgrade a few internal boards every few years vs the entire device is important. If managed correctly, the vendors should be able to maintain similar margins and by simplifying the upgrade process, still provide savings to end users.

Cheers - #19
 
I've kinda been surprised that sports has been a little slow to adopt. The streaming NHL network has such terrible quality and its a sport that could probably be most beneficial to the added resolution.
 
For sports HFR would be even better and I hope for a universal framerate (no more PAL, SECAM and NTSC) for sports something like a 100 fps would be great.
 
I'm going through this more in detail, I agree on the reasoning behind it ... but in practice this just feels old school to me (i.e. if they wanted leadership in this, they needed to act a few years back). Good example is the h265 stuff, I'm like vp9+ with all the new object stuff is where it's going ... this just feels ancient. Also things like point cloud streaming with real time compositing is where it's at, but I can't find that type of thing in this either? Theoretically they have the new audio channel stuff in that, but again, object audio with caching is where things are going digitally(i.e. that already has significantly more purchase volume then film). The apple speakers already use the audio standard, but that isn't integrated into video at this time, my bet is it will be focused on a apple multimedia experience (not these standards). On the sports side, I think all the sports numbers have issues: if I had a realtime point cloud experience from football line, nascar driver or drag race car ... that would create a compelling reason for a new purchase. But I see a extremely small percentage of people upgrading their systems just for sports without the object experience (i.e. customer is able to change and replay from their chosen viewpoint).
 
Is 8K really going to be a thing? The initial increases in resolution from SD to HD was amazing although if you look back then plenty of people said why bother. HD to 4K sees a diminishing rate of return on the pixels but yes it is a step up if you feed in sufficiently high bandwidth 4K material but the TV needs to pretty big to leverage the resolution. I know the average TV is getting bigger all the time but I wonder if there is an upper limit for people and their TV in the long room? I live in a 19th century Terrace house and I struggle to find room for a 55" TV. Will average TV size stabilise around 65"? I am yet to see a 8K set so I am open minded and I clearly understand the value of resolution in acquisition but I'm waiting on the proof for a 8K TV in my lounge.
 
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Tom Gleeson said:
Is 8K really going to be a thing? The initial increases in resolution from SD to HD was amazing although if you look back then plenty of people said why bother. HD to 4K sees a diminishing rate of return on the pixels but yes it is a step up if you feed in sufficiently high bandwidth 4K material but the TV needs to pretty big to leverage the resolution. I know the average TV is getting bigger all the time but I wonder if there is an upper limit for people and their TV in the long room? I live in a 19th century Terrace house and I struggle to find room for a 55" TV. Will average TV size stabilise around 65"? I am yet to see a 8K set so I am open minded and I clearly understand the value of resolution in acquisition but I'm waiting on the proof for a 8K TV in my lounge.
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Yes it is, otherwise the companies I'm shooting for are nuts (they are not nuts). I was a bit impressed that Sony of all companies had the courage to show their leading 4K tech next to their prototype 8K display and what shocked me more was I could see the difference at a very far back distance on an 85" set. I'm talking 20-25 feet, which is outside of our optimal viewing algorithms that we've used all these years. It's pretty noticeable.

But the short story is it's going to be stagnated much like the SD > HD > 4K transition. It won't be the "norm" for a while, but it will be streaming by the end of the year in a very early stage. During the next 3-ish years you'll see 4K everywhere and a healthy amount of 8K out there. In 5 years you won't ask that question at all.

This train as far as I theorized and now even know will go up to 16K as a display medium, though that might be a harder sell, but that's very much down the line. First you'll see higher resolution cameras for 8K finishing, though 8K for 8K looks pretty damn good IMO.
 
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FWIW, as time passes, I'd wager only tech peeps like us will be counting "K"s - not the vast majority of folks buying cameras/displays/etc. Convenience and usability have been kicking quality's ass for years now. More resolution will come - gotta keep juicing the upgrade cycle - but as long as 98% of the available content is over compressed to keep distribution costs down (and facilitate smooth live streams), it may not look much better than baseband SD properly displayed. Selling displays primarily on a cost per diagonal inch basis doesn't help either, it puts most of the incentive on reducing costs vs increasing quality.

All other things being equal, resolution can really improve IQ. Period. Sadly, it's being touted as the be all, end all of better images - which doesn't pass the eye test. The end result is making it easy to claim resolution doesn't matter much. Doh! :banghead:

Cheers - #19
 
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