New Epic X Price Prediction

[Cid J Salcido Uyarra]

here's the thing

if Sony bites at the $20K price range for the F5 then Epic is likely going to my guess compete at $19k which personally I think is kinda crazy.

Epic $27k add some loose some

Scarlet $7750

Scarlet will compete with C100 FS700.

If $6k got me to Epic from Scarlet I'll bite any more I'm gonna chill for a minute and enjoy a few months of profit before I get suckered to cough more dough up.

It seems like theres gonna be some good deals going down on RedUser around NAB time.

That maybe the time to go Epic.

 

[Brett Clements]

Drop the hammer. You guys redefined the industry and made all of us possible to shoot these pictures. Before RED, those fat, lazy cats were charging a quarter of a million for digital tape cameras. SHAKE it up. Raise the money that's necessary to take it to Canon and Sony and BMC. I paid $58,000 for a RED Epic M. I love every second of the nuances. It keeps me hungry and foolish. Go get 'em.

 

[Glen Powell]

Around $25K for the Epic - and I would think that the new Scarlet price will be similar to the BT tested "deal of a lifetime" that I just bought and will arrive on Monday. (I don't feel cheated at all; I was buying another Scarlet anyway 'cause my business needed it)

No matter how low they drop the price of the body / brain - there will be a long line of haters that will complain about the actual cost of getting a working cam… (Lenses, mount, batteries, memory mags, handles…)

As someone who works their cameras 2-3 days a week on paying projects- and recoups equipment costs in months - Lower camera costs for new equipment is always welcome. For the guys who buy a cam for their 'Feature Debut' and then hoping to rent the gear out to cover their costs; Facepalm.

 

[Luke Kokinos]

What do you think the chances are that they just discontinue the Scarlet after the price drop? With some of the numbers being thrown around, I think it's possible.

 

[Dan Kanes]

May be possible scarlet could be discontinued - but not without the continuing possibility of upgrades for existing scarlet owners.

just my 0.00002 cents.

 

[Larry Kelly]

This idea may already be mentioned but my wild speculation is that the Epic X will drop by $12,000.00 give or take. The new Epic with Dragon sensor will be added to the lineup and will be close to the old price of Epic X minus 2 to 4 grand. There may even be a trade-in option for those who purchased Epic X at full price to a Dragon, this will ease tensions regarding the price decreases. This will be the case for between 6 months to a year when Scarlet will be discontinued and maybe the Epic X will become the new Scarlet.

Larry

 

[Zakaree Sandberg]

In that case Zakaree none of us should buy cameras anymore. Which is maybe fair enough. Few people owned film cameras in the day (or any equipment) but then companies like Red will no longer be able to forge ahead.

Rob, you private messages are full

 

[Zakaree Sandberg]

here's the thing

if Sony bites at the $20K price range for the F5 then Epic is likely going to my guess compete at $19k which personally I think is kinda crazy.

Epic $27k add some loose some

Scarlet $7750

Scarlet will compete with C100 FS700.

If $6k got me to Epic from Scarlet I'll bite any more I'm gonna chill for a minute and enjoy a few months of profit before I get suckered to cough more dough up.

It seems like theres gonna be some good deals going down on RedUser around NAB time.

That maybe the time to go Epic.

so basically its no longer who has the best image.. but who has the best price.

bidding warssssss

 

[sergio arguello]

i think he was waaay beyond of dreaming...lol

dreaming/smoking!!!

 

[Jason Goodman]

Consider this, RED ONE was initially $17,000. It's raison d'etre was to turn the industry on it's ear. EPIC was awesome and almost inconceivable when it was announced, but by the time it was widely available, it seemed much more evolutionary than revolutionary. It did not fundamentally change the industry in the way RED ONE did at it's introduction. It was also much more expensive for most people. It was not less good, just less paradigm smashing. Alexa was around, F3 etc. EPIC was a big deal, but not unprecedented in the way RED ONE was.

Jim has a flair for the dramatic when it comes to marketing his products and I suspect he enjoys making people like Sony, Arri and Canon squirm. I'm not sure a $25,000 EPIC would do that. I also agree with the statements that the CEO of the the company would not make the type of announcement Jim did if we were talking about a 20% or 30% price drop.

Also consider this. Scarlet is essentially an EPIC with some slightly less capable components. Many have speculated (not sure if this has been confirmed) that Scarlet actually uses EPIC chips that don't meet the spec for full res and full frame rate. I suspect that there are many strategically limited components in a Scarlet to differentiate it, but that it is largely EXTREMELY SIMILAR to EPIC in many ways. If Scarlet can be manufactured and sold profitably for $9,700 why can't EPIC? Stage 2 buyers got them for like $19k and I doubt RED would have lost $19k per camera. All the full price $38k buyers are part of the whole paying off the NRE stuff. Also keep in mind if you bought an EPIC for $38k a year ago (or even a month ago) and earned more than $38k with it, there's not too much to be upset about.

I also agree that there have been key statements made by key people that tip the hat to an exteremely radical price reduction. Jim's speculation that people who don't own EPICs will and Jared's anticipation of a massive influx of EPIC orders indicate something major.

Here's what I predict. Scarlet is going away. EPIC-X will be priced at $9,700. Current EPIC owners will pay $6k for 6K. Current Scarlet owners will probably pay a bit more to upgrade to 6k, but may send in their cameras for EPIC replacement (a la RED ONE 'upgrades' to EPIC). People buying new EPIC after Thursday's price drop will pay $8k or so for 6k upgrade and then buyers of new EPIC-D (with dragon) will pay $17,000 just like the original RED ONE. Then something new (EPIC 8k?) will take the mantle as RED's $30k+ killer diller top of the line thing.

This would kick Sony, Arri and Canon in the balls pretty hard. I think we should expect something radical along these lines. As Jim said, nothing they do would satisfy everyone, so they are probably ready for the crew of people who are pissed off due to buying EPIC 40 days ago or BT Scarlet or whatever, but they'll figure out a way to make it sting less, somehow. They seem pretty good at that. They are a hell of a lot more creative and flexible with their pricing and upgrading than just about any other company of any kind. They've made it clear that it's your responsibility to make money with the camera while you have it, not theirs. They've talked about $4,000 computers being 1/10,000th as good as current tech. They probably don't care about rental or resale markets as much as they do selling new cameras, expanding their user base and selling more accessories. BTW, that is key. Memory, monitors, aluminum wingnuts, rods, rails, lenses etc are not being price reduced. The razors are about to get much less expensive, they will sell a lot more blades.

 

[Bryant Bell]

Interesting thoughts Jason, I hope you're right.

 

[Kemalettin Sert]

Consider this, RED ONE was initially $17,000. It's raison d'etre was to turn the industry on it's ear. EPIC was awesome and almost inconceivable when it was announced, but by the time it was widely available, it seemed much more evolutionary than revolutionary. It did not fundamentally change the industry in the way RED ONE did at it's introduction. It was also much more expensive for most people. It was not less good, just less paradigm smashing. Alexa was around, F3 etc. EPIC was a big deal, but not unprecedented in the way RED ONE was.

Jim has a flair for the dramatic when it comes to marketing his products and I suspect he enjoys making people like Sony, Arri and Canon squirm. I'm not sure a $25,000 EPIC would do that. I also agree with the statements that the CEO of the the company would not make the type of announcement Jim did if we were talking about a 20% or 30% price drop.

Also consider this. Scarlet is essentially an EPIC with some slightly less capable components. Many have speculated (not sure if this has been confirmed) that Scarlet actually uses EPIC chips that don't meet the spec for full res and full frame rate. I suspect that there are many strategically limited components in a Scarlet to differentiate it, but that it is largely EXTREMELY SIMILAR to EPIC in many ways. If Scarlet can be manufactured and sold profitably for $9,700 why can't EPIC? Stage 2 buyers got them for like $19k and I doubt RED would have lost $19k per camera. All the full price $38k buyers are part of the whole paying off the NRE stuff. Also keep in mind if you bought an EPIC for $38k a year ago (or even a month ago) and earned more than $38k with it, there's not too much to be upset about.

I also agree that there have been key statements made by key people that tip the hat to an exteremely radical price reduction. Jim's speculation that people who don't own EPICs will and Jared's anticipation of a massive influx of EPIC orders indicate something major.

Here's what I predict. Scarlet is going away. EPIC-X will be priced at $9,700. Current EPIC owners will pay $6k for 6K. Current Scarlet owners will probably pay a bit more to upgrade to 6k, but may send in their cameras for EPIC replacement (a la RED ONE 'upgrades' to EPIC). People buying new EPIC after Thursday's price drop will pay $8k or so for 6k upgrade and then buyers of new EPIC-D (with dragon) will pay $17,000 just like the original RED ONE. Then something new (EPIC 8k?) will take the mantle as RED's $30k+ killer diller top of the line thing.

This would kick Sony, Arri and Canon in the balls pretty hard. I think we should expect something radical along these lines. As Jim said, nothing they do would satisfy everyone, so they are probably ready for the crew of people who are pissed off due to buying EPIC 40 days ago or BT Scarlet or whatever, but they'll figure out a way to make it sting less, somehow. They seem pretty good at that. They are a hell of a lot more creative and flexible with their pricing and upgrading than just about any other company of any kind. They've made it clear that it's your responsibility to make money with the camera while you have it, not theirs. They've talked about $4,000 computers being 1/10,000th as good as current tech. They probably don't care about rental or resale markets as much as they do selling new cameras, expanding their user base and selling more accessories. BTW, that is key. Memory, monitors, aluminum wingnuts, rods, rails, lenses etc are not being price reduced. The razors are about to get much less expensive, they will sell a lot more blades.

Hahahhaa Jason Epic for $9K and Scarlet is going away? you are funny
just a reminder for smokers in this thread...

You can certainly cancel your BT Scarlet order to buy an EPIC at the new price. But expect a significantly higher investment.

Jim

boss says high..significantly higher..that means high

 

[Gavin Greenwalt]

It does 80 percent of Epic for a lot less

More like 10% for a bit less:

12 fps vs 120fps.
6:1 compression vs uncompressed.
No 60p at 4k.
No HDRx at 4k.
?6 month delay on Dragon upgrades if ever?
Extra $4k for Dragon upgrade?


Its only saving grace is that it's affordable. But now it might cost more than an Epic after Dragon. Which is kind of screwing Scarlet owners. It's a lose, lose, lose situation for Scarlet owners imo. Just last year Jim was saying that we shouldn't buy from Canon for doing that. At least a used Canon has some resale value to buy the new one. I'm only half worried though. When I bought my Scarlet I did so saying that I trusted RED wouldn't screw me. If Epic dropped by half to $15k and kept the $6k upgrade cost, it would cost less than a Scarlet. And since my Scarlet was the left-overs from broken Epics to keep Epic prices reasonable I would feel pretty used. "Hey, thanks for keeping our epic prices low to move a lot of Epics. Also, your camera isn't worth anything now." But that isn't generally RED's MO so I'm optimistic that Scarlet owners will get taken care of.

 

[Gavin Greenwalt]

boss says high..significantly higher..that means high

Kind of. But at $7k for a BT Scarlet... 300% higher investment (which is significant) is still only $21k. And if Scarlet costs $10k to upgrade to Dragon then you're looking at $20k for a Scarlet D vs $27k for an Epic D (selling at $21k). 10% of the features for 77% of the price? Pass. It would be worse if you add in $10k in accessories. Scarlet $30k vs Epic D $37, 10% of the features for 80% of the price.

I would just be tempted to buy the Sony camera. And know that it will be obsolete but that I could probably get 50% of my cost back towards the next one instead of having to pay 100% to upgrade + no money back.


Sony pricing policy:

Buy for $100.
Sell for $50
Buy new for $100 a year later. New Warranty
--------------
$50


RED's new potential Scarlet pricing.

Buy for $100
Buy extended warranty for $10
Buy upgrade for $100
-----------
$210


Why buy RED?

 

[Kemalettin Sert]

Kind of. But at $7k for a BT Scarlet... 300% higher investment (which is significant) is still only $21k. And if Scarlet costs $10k to upgrade to Dragon then you're looking at $20k for a Scarlet D vs $27k for an Epic D at $21k. 10% of the features for 77% of the price? Pass.

whatever i just dont wanna do that much math anymore since im not in school
very happy to being customer of RED Digital Cinema i know there is always path for us in future with this company..they wont disappoint you never!

 

[Tim Whitcomb]

Well Gavin many of us Epic owners feel SCREWED BY SCARLET in the first place and cant wait for its ignoble death. I don't blame RED for going after demand, I just wish they had waited until AFTER RED LASER RED RAY to release a low end 4K Camera. I like the idea of RED leading the 4K revolution with the BEST cameras... not pandering to a group better served with prosumer gear. Everything in life changes has been Jim's MO since DAY 1 and you can feel however you want but if Im them... TOUGH DECISIONS need to be made.

 

[Vadim Bobkovsky]

I will be seriously surprised if it ends up being $18K for an Epic brain (MX) and $6K for a Scarlet brain (MX). That's a fantasy tale, obviously. Well, at least Red always could put the latest bleeding-edge electronics and the very best of their new Dragon chips into a new EPIC DR and make it as expensive as the original EPIC-M for a year or two straight (hell, maybe more). If the Dragon's images are better looking than F65s it's gonna be insanely good.

 

[Elsie N]

Kind of. But at $7k for a BT Scarlet... 300% higher investment (which is significant) is still only $21k. And if Scarlet costs $10k to upgrade to Dragon then you're looking at $20k for a Scarlet D vs $27k for an Epic D (selling at $21k). 10% of the features for 77% of the price? Pass. It would be worse if you add in $10k in accessories. Scarlet $30k vs Epic D $37, 10% of the features for 80% of the price.

whatever i just dont wanna do that much math anymore since im not in school

Great line Kemalettin. And while I disagree with Gavin's logic, I support what he's doing... that is, lobbying for a better Scarlet deal. Go Gavin!

 

[Will Keir]

So they cut Epic prices by 10k?

I predict:


Scarlets full time for $7500

Algorithm A derives:
Epic X (with side ssd and Ti PL) for $11,111

Algorithm B derives
Epic X (with side ssd and Ti PL) for $17,500

Scarlet X to Epic X board upgrade : $6000

dragon upgrade : $6000 for everyone.

adjusted 10/28/2012

this is all purely speculation based on the new pricing thread.

 

[Will Keir]

is 18k with our without dragon?

So 24k with Dragon most likely?