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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

New Epic X Price Prediction

^ I am in the same boat but without the tracking number for my Scarlet...all the other accessories already arrived. If they do drop it guess it wasn't such a deal of the lifetime but regardless I am really interested to see what they price the Epic at and to see if any accessories also drop in price.
 
Kemalettin Sert said:
so what about me then? Just got Scarlet BT and if they re-adjust Scarlet (new) price $8K-9K?
i was talking with my bomb squad yesterday about shipping Scarlet and she said at least 5-10 days wait.But i got my tracking number like few hours before Jim's announcement :) isnt it weird?
do you think they ll extend warranty for BT Scarlets?
Click to expand...

If a new Scarlet ends up being 8-9k, all the sudden that awesome short term get them while it lasts deal of knocking 5k off of used Scarlets doesnt seem so great. Im not sure how this price drop helps any current owners? It does help Red get some new users and will help to sell more expensive accessories.

As much as it feels good to think Red is just passing on savings to us I believe this is a reactionary move to stay competitive with other companies. Storage prices come down all the time too just like electronics, I would think lowering those prices would help current owners more than lowering the price on gear they already own.

Not flaming here, and I am still very much looking forward to producing more stuff with these cameras but I have to be honest and say its a bit unnerving.
 
Mike Kushner said:
that's going to make it hard to sell my red one mx. I thought obsolescence was obsolete???
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Nope. Now those who just within a year bought a scarlet or epic, made a bad investment. They bought into the idea that there was a value to their purchase. I find myself sick to my stomach over this... I just bought my scarlet 5 months ago and paid good money for it. A big chunk of that decision was that if i needed to sell it, I could , for close or exact same value i paid for it. That is how Red held the market. They kept prices up and resale has always been amazing. I REALLY scraped together to buy it, like most scarlet owners. I didn't lend, i paid cash. Now not even 6 months later i find i have lost thousands, and come next week, maybe more. They brand this update like it's a huge thank you to us red users. How so? It's more a huge thank you to everyone who didn't buy yet. And those who did in the scarlet world (majority less fortunate but wanted something real to film with) are out of luck. I am so beside myself.... They really need to offer some sort of trade in , or value towards for us scarlet owners. The market is already ruined by the BT Scarlets, now this....... sigh.
 
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You guys are spinning this off topic.

it's about predicting the new price.

no one, even people who bought scarlet last November will be left behind.

You have an upgradeable camera platform.

obsolesence obsolete.

let's not jump off a bridge just yet.

if you bought a scarlet a year ago and did not make back at least 50 percent of your investment (if you are at least 50 percent profiteer) what were you waiting for.

if you bought a scarlet and could upgrade the boards to epic for 4000-6000 would you? I would.

better investment than a worthless now AF100, or FS100 or c300(a 3000 dollar value at 5x the price. -worthless out of the box in my opinion)?

If your goal was to make money then you better have the clientele - if you don't have the clientele you have access to tools that will help you get the clientele.

seems more than fair to me.
 
Chris Jordan said:
Nope. Now those who just within a year bought a scarlet or epic, made a bad investment. They bought into the idea that there was a value to their purchase. I find myself sick to my stomach over this...
Click to expand...

I wouldn't call a camera that you can upgrade and have viable for the next 2 (maybe 3) years a bad investment.

Advancements in digital technology, manufacturing, and competition effect camera price.

*edit I'm with Dan on this.
 
I predict EpicX brain with SSD module and Ti PL Mount for $17,500.
 
Phil Holland said:
I wouldn't call a camera that you can upgrade and have viable for the next 2 (maybe 3) years a bad investment.

Advancements in digital technology, manufacturing, and competition effect camera price.

*edit I'm with Dan on this.
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You know, i am too. I completly agree with him. and you Phil. BUT if they don't follow through with options for my Scarlet, how could i feel good about it? I am just hoping they do. As stated, Dan's idea of upgrading my board to Epic would be follow through, and well invited. But otherwise, I'll feel like a chump.

NOW that being said, Dan has hit the nail on the head. If i haven't got out there and used it and made $, shame on me not red. I totally agree.
 
Dan Kanes said:
You guys are spinning this off topic.

it's about predicting the new price.

no one, even people who bought scarlet last November will be left behind.

You have an upgradeable camera platform.

obsolesence obsolete.

let's not jump off a bridge just yet.

if you bought a scarlet a year ago and did not make back at least 50 percent of your investment (if you are at least 50 percent profiteer) what were you waiting for.

if you bought a scarlet and could upgrade the boards to epic for 4000-6000 would you? I would.

better investment than a worthless now AF100, or FS100 or c300(a 3000 dollar value at 5x the price. -worthless out of the box in my opinion)?

If your goal was to make money then you better have the clientele - if you don't have the clientele you have access to tools that will help you get the clientele.

seems more than fair to me.
Click to expand...

Dan, you are right. Thanks for keeping me on track. Here's crossin my fingers for an upgrade for the scarlet.
 
Another way to look at it:

you bought into the Cloud.

Cloudsourcing.

the more I look at it, the stronger I feel about my algorithm , and I think this can be extended almost to:

10K for dragon+epic board upgrade for Scarlet.
 
There is no value in buying gear and thinking about resale as part of the business model. In your case it was probably better to rent when you need it. If you were indeed using it for production, surely you must have got good return by now. To have bought the Scarlet 6 months ago, you bought into something that had no other competition. The Scarlet is still amazing for what you get at that price point. It does 80 percent of Epic for a lot less. I'll show you a closet full of 10K cameras collecting dust. I can't use any accessory that was specific to that camera on anything else. I personally don't think RED accessories are over priced, but I'm confident they will be used for quite sometime with the Epic/Scarlet future modules. Cars, computers, cameras, all depreciate pretty quickly. Your skills luckily don't. Its not like all of a sudden your Scarlet can't produce beautiful images. Sell your skills... not your gear :)


Chris Jordan said:
Nope. Now those who just within a year bought a scarlet or epic, made a bad investment. They bought into the idea that there was a value to their purchase. I find myself sick to my stomach over this... I just bought my scarlet 5 months ago and paid good money for it. A big chunk of that decision was that if i needed to sell it, I could , for close or exact same value i paid for it. That is how Red held the market. They kept prices up and resale has always been amazing. I REALLY scraped together to buy it, like most scarlet owners. I didn't lend, i paid cash. Now not even 6 months later i find i have lost thousands, and come next week, maybe more. They brand this update like it's a huge thank you to us red users. How so? It's more a huge thank you to everyone who didn't buy yet. And those who did in the scarlet world (majority less fortunate but wanted something real to film with) are out of luck. I am so beside myself.... They really need to offer some sort of trade in , or value towards for us scarlet owners. The market is already ruined by the BT Scarlets, now this....... sigh.
Click to expand...
 
Chris Jordan said:
Nope. Now those who just within a year bought a scarlet or epic, made a bad investment. They bought into the idea that there was a value to their purchase. I find myself sick to my stomach over this... I just bought my scarlet 5 months ago and paid good money for it. A big chunk of that decision was that if i needed to sell it, I could , for close or exact same value i paid for it. That is how Red held the market. They kept prices up and resale has always been amazing. I REALLY scraped together to buy it, like most scarlet owners. I didn't lend, i paid cash. Now not even 6 months later i find i have lost thousands, and come next week, maybe more. They brand this update like it's a huge thank you to us red users. How so? It's more a huge thank you to everyone who didn't buy yet. And those who did in the scarlet world (majority less fortunate but wanted something real to film with) are out of luck. I am so beside myself.... They really need to offer some sort of trade in , or value towards for us scarlet owners. The market is already ruined by the BT Scarlets, now this....... sigh.
Click to expand...
in which ay is the market ruined by the BT scarlets? i just got mine, and trust me i am really happy....especially because i already paid the cash for a scarlet into my red account and was figuring out the accessories when jarred posted the deal....i saved a bunch....does that mean that i would sell it cheaper then any other scarlet owner? the used price is still based on the list price....regardless, i am not selling anyway....i am waiting for dragon upgrade...
have you used your camera in the last 6 months? a scarlet brain rental day is about 400....so let's say after this HUGE price drop you are expecting you can sell your scarlet brain for 6000? 5000? so if you have used your scarlet for more then 10 days in the last half year, you still break even....which is pretty amazing....
it has been said here before: do you ever buy a computer? TV? CAR!? 35% less the second you drive off the lot....
i think before you drive yourself crazy, maybe wait what the actual price drop might be? some of the numbers mentioned here are pretty laughable.....epic for 15000! scarlet for 5000!....actually i wish that would happen, even if i loose all the cash i paid for my scarlet....i still save a WAY more on the lower priced epic!
 
Dan Kanes said:
the more I look at it, the stronger I feel about my algorithm , and I think this can be extended almost to:

10K for dragon+epic board upgrade for Scarlet.
Click to expand...

i WISH that was in the cards....there is no way....that would put my BT scarlet +epic upgrade +dragon at 17000.....which would require the epic to be slashed by a lot more then 50%....which makes RED look REALLY bad from a business standpoint....

another way to look at it: what would you say if your clients one day expected you to cut your rate by 70% because you mentioned that your camera, car and your house is paid off and your kids are out of college?
 
I predict half of the cost of an Epic-X brain which will make it $17.5k, but current Epic-X owners will probably get some perks with the reduction—maybe credit towards other accessories.

As for the Scarlet-X I predict 5k territory (which isn't too crazy considering before the release of the Scarlet people we're thinking of the 5-7.5k territory until they wanted to include HDRx which bumped up the price). Current Scarlet-X owners would probably have a trade-in program to upgrade to an Epic-X and pay the the difference of 7.5k. If you want the Dragon it'll be an extra 6k. So if you're a Scarlet owner thinking of getting to Dragon it'll be 7.5k+6K which will be 13.5k.

This way both camps might be happy? Current Epic-X owners get a totally new sensor for $6k, and possibly some credit on accessories. And Scarlet-X users, who are more of the budget-conscious crowd, have a viable path to pay the difference of 7.5k for the Epic, and an easy path upgrade to the Dragon now or in the future.

We'll see!
 
Bob Gundu said:
There is no value in buying gear and thinking about resale as part of the business model. In your case it was probably better to rent when you need it. If you were indeed using it for production, surely you must have got good return by now. To have bought the Scarlet 6 months ago, you bought into something that had no other competition. The Scarlet is still amazing for what you get at that price point. It does 80 percent of Epic for a lot less. I'll show you a closet full of 10K cameras collecting dust. I can't use any accessory that was specific to that camera on anything else. I personally don't think RED accessories are over priced, but I'm confident they will be used for quite sometime with the Epic/Scarlet future modules. Cars, computers, cameras, all depreciate pretty quickly. Your skills luckily don't. Its not like all of a sudden your Scarlet can't produce beautiful images. Sell your skills... not your gear :)
Click to expand...

Of course you sell your skills, not your gear, but a camera is a business investment that you buy to rent to others and to save having to rent from others, and if Red starts playing the Black Magic game next time I for one will switch to either not buying cameras or buying from other sellers. If Epic is too cheap then it is not rentable at all. Something that fragile that rents for $300 a day is not worth the hassle.

If Epic is too cheap, in fact, Red will really hurt all their existing customers and lose a lot of good will.
 
Elan Gunos said:
I predict half of the cost of an Epic-X brain which will make it $17.5k, but current Epic-X owners will probably get some perks with the reduction—maybe credit towards other accessories.

As for the Scarlet-X I predict 5k territory (which isn't too crazy considering before the release of the Scarlet people we're thinking of the 5-7.5k territory until they wanted to include HDRx which bumped up the price). Current Scarlet-X owners would probably have a trade-in program to upgrade to an Epic-X and pay the the difference of 7.5k. If you want the Dragon it'll be an extra 6k. So if you're a Scarlet owner thinking of getting to Dragon it'll be 7.5k+6K which will be 13.5k.

This way both camps might be happy? Current Epic-X owners get a totally new sensor for $6k, and possibly some credit on accessories. And Scarlet-X users, who are more of the budget-conscious crowd, have a viable path to pay the difference of 7.5k for the Epic, and an easy path upgrade to the Dragon now or in the future.

We'll see!
Click to expand...

Sort of what I was saying here earlier - http://www.reduser.net/forum/showth...-time-Special-Epic-Owners-Sale-on-Accessories in terms of something for Epic owners.
 
Some of these comments must make Jim want to tear his hair out!! (If he had hair.) Honestly, it's no wonder he doesn't post all that much anymore. :-(
 
Probably a good strategy for Red would be to give credit to current Epic-X owners on accessories with the highest profit margins. Not sure what their highest profit margin accessories are but that's where they can offset their cost and still retain the loyalty of the current owners. Maybe the Redmags, and others.

Derek Chingwell said:
Sort of what I was saying here earlier - http://www.reduser.net/forum/showth...-time-Special-Epic-Owners-Sale-on-Accessories in terms of something for Epic owners.
Click to expand...
 
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