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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

New Epic X Price Prediction

I bought a used Scarlet for more then a BT Scarlet sold for a month or so later after my purchase, but who cares? I have a camera that takes the best images of my life. I haven't made a penny off the camera yet, but that's only cuz I am too busy working on someone elses Red set during the weekdays and shooting to make a reel on the weekends. Sitting around counting numbers is for accountants, what we do is make pretty images and that is all that matters. sitting here being a brat that i haven't made money yet is silly, i mean i took reducation nyc for 500 bucks and made 50k in returns. I am sure I will eventually monetize on the red as well, once the reel is in place and I have more time to work on my own shooting, but for now it sits in the box and I enjoy working with it on the weekends. its not really as bad as some people make it out to be, I used to have to use a DSLR for my reel/wkend gigs, now I am using the same sensor all these block busters are shooting on lol! i am quite happy, price savings be damned, and same with my timing. I still have a wonderful image maker, the pricing structure is irrelevant, and I will be happy to move up to Epic or Dragon as I save more


Mike P. said:
I'd be fairly annoyed if Scarlet can't upgrade to Dragon (or if the price of the upgrade makes it the same cost of an reduced price Epic) or if the price of Epic is reduced by something like %50 (which is essentially Scarlet territory.) I get that price reductions happen to electronics, but it's usually fairly incremental (~10% at a time); if you received your camera two months ago (just past the 30 day limit), it's not unreasonable if someone has yet to pay-off half their camera... That's $10-20k profit above and beyond pay for your time/services (in other words, you'd have to essentially be making $60-120k a year, per camera, on just rental revenue).

Conversely, because they've seemingly waited for the competition to announce a camera that is to be in the $22-25k price range before reducing the DSMC prices, this move appears to be a somewhat less generous offer and more of an necessity to prevent people from switching over. While it *could* just be coincidence, it certainly appears reactionary; if they weren't being forced by another camera, would RED have lowered the price? If Sony releases what is essentially a $22-25k "Alexa" or F65 with 4k+ resolution (the biggest advantage RED has above Arri), where does that leave the Epic? The only move is to reduce the price, otherwise they'll be less competitive... In my opinion it implies that RED's hand is being forced, rather than them dropping prices on a whim.

With all that in mind, I'm expecting the price to be reduced to match whatever Sony's F54k base price is (without any external recorder and whatnot)... potentially be 10% cheaper than that. If the F54k is like $25k camera but then $18k for a 4k recorder, I'd expect the Epic to be $25k and RED to hammer home the "we do 5k internally" mantra.
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Holy shit yeah, that would be insane if it went that low. I was guessing more around like $27K at the most but that might even be pushing it.
I would guess it's only going to be a couple thousand. I seriously doubt it'll be a 10K drop or anything.

At the same time Jarred did say that if they didn't drop the price then they would be making an obscene profit so maybe we'll get lucky.
 
I'll have to be honest here... I'll be a wee bit pissed off if Epic-X is reduced by more than 20%.
 
Terry VerHaar said:
I predict the only way to Dragon will be through Epic.
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I was thinking that could be the case as well.

In terms of what the new Epic price will be, with the camera being released in 2010, knowing approximately how many cameras were sold, the R&D and initial engineering costs actually getting paid off, the opening and hiring at Irvine, approximately how many employees, and the fact that Red still wants to make a profit on the cameras I'm guessing somewhere around a 35%. Also based on what we know certain other camera companies are doing and at what price point I think the $20k-$25k market is about to get slammed like a pinata with new cameras. To stay competitive in price with those systems Epic will need to come in around the price of the new cameras (even though most of them require a 4K recorder separately). If Red is going to be hyper aggressive against the new cameras and super ultra aggressive against the other digital cinema cameras I'd think:

Epic-X Price now = $34,500
Epic-X Price future = $22,425 (-ish)

It is impressive. We have to keep in mind that R&D and setup costs for Epic (DSMC) was millions of dollars. DSMC will likely be Red's focus for this camera and potentially the next generation of camera about 3 years from now. The next two updates I think will be Dragon and what the "Monstro" sensor could be (likely larger sensors). Dragon will cost $6k for Epic. We've been told that. It makes sense to me to have Epic come in slightly below and a Dragon equipped Epic to be a bit more expensive than the new cameras coming down the pipe.

Interesting to note. Now the Red One is still being sold at $25,000 through the site. I personally expect that to change as well. It might be time to retire the old girl. She's worked hard.
 
My other algorithm indicates

Brain + PL Mount + side ssd for 22,500 - however I think there are more tricks in the Red bag than just price reduction coming.

I've got my helmet and goggles on - should be interesting no matter what.

rocketeer.jpg
 
@Paul - read the Thread on price drop.

anyone spending over 50k on a kit gets a free dragon upgrade, and Jannard also states that if you bought an Epic in the last 30 days you are protected.

I would only worry about your investment if you do not believe in your skills.

Believe in Red - they have your back dude. Also believe in yourself, ultimately it's up to you what happens in life.
 
Yes I read that. And Im doing pretty decent in my main paying jobs as a feature editor, thanks. None of that takes away from a certain uncomfortableness after you spend 100k and the next day the price may get dropped in a huge way. I would think you and everyone else could understand that.

I do know Red's track record and I know they have my back but it doesnt change the feeling, thats all. That said I will wait to see how this all plays out.
 
i think just under 30K, like 29K. Lower would be not good for anyone. I as a epic owner would be fairly annoyed if it dropped lower. And dropping 7-8K would be still really a lot!
 
I dunno, Jims post about everyone who doesn't own an epic already will now- is pretty bold. That seems to infer a pretty drastic price reduction. I mean, even dropping it $7-8k isn't enough for everyone who doesn't have an epic to now own one. But who knows, Sony announces prices Tuesday right? And Red on Thursday? Just enough time to figure out a price based on the competition.
 
Paul Harb said:
Yes I read that. And Im doing pretty decent in my main paying jobs as a feature editor, thanks. None of that takes away from a certain uncomfortableness after you spend 100k and the next day the price may get dropped in a huge way. I would think you and everyone else could understand that.

I do know Red's track record and I know they have my back but it doesnt change the feeling, thats all. That said I will wait to see how this all plays out.
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Another way to look at it is, how could they do it differently to make it better for you? You probably bought your Scarlet at the BT price, right? That's a $3600 discount already, so, you're already way covered there. I certainly wish I had only paid $7100 for my Scarlet!!

As for the Epic, as others have pointed out, you get a "refund" of the difference in credit against accessories. Worst case, if you don't want need accessories, you can re-sell them. Where's is the down side? The way I see it is that you lent RED some money for awhile and they are about to give it back - prematurely and unexpectedly - just because they like you. Enjoy!! (And welcome to the mystrious and exciting world of RED!!) :smiley:
 
Jake Wilganowski said:
I dunno, Jims post about everyone who doesn't own an epic already will now- is pretty bold. That seems to infer a pretty drastic price reduction. I mean, even dropping it $7-8k isn't enough for everyone who doesn't have an epic to now own one. But who knows, Sony announces prices Tuesday right? And Red on Thursday? Just enough time to figure out a price based on the competition.
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Haha - that almost scared me. Here I am thinking "Hey, I can't come close to affording an Epic right now1" And Jim's voice is in my ear whispering... "Of course you can, of course you can..." Downright scary! LOL
 
Andy White said:
If the prices come down this far, the industry will be turned on it's head... as a lot of Rental only companies will just drop the Epic, as it's not worth keeping rental stock at that price - it's too close to consumer/prosumer wallet range.
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Agree - as a result, there will be more Red bashing and convincing Producers that Red is the wrong choice, for rental houses will be flogging some other product. Certainly not the only reason rental houses push the Alexa, but it is a factor.

Ahhhh, let the flaming commence.
 
HD Hildebrand said:
Agree - as a result, there will be more Red bashing and convincing Producers that Red is the wrong choice, for rental houses will be flogging some other product. Certainly not the only reason rental houses push the Alexa, but it is a factor.

Ahhhh, let the flaming commence.
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DING DING DING
 
Kemalettin Sert said:
lol Dan 11K for Epic? You are dreaming pal :)
i think you sould be little bit realistic with the prices.And they stated no price reduction on Scarlet.I think 10K is exactly good price for scarlet.
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NO they said across the board. All brains will take a reduction. Yes i feel like throwing up, since i just investing in a scarlet.
 
Chris Jordan said:
NO they said across the board. All brains will take a reduction. Yes i feel like throwing up, since i just investing in a scarlet.
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so what about me then? Just got Scarlet BT and if they re-adjust Scarlet (new) price $8K-9K?
i was talking with my bomb squad yesterday about shipping Scarlet and she said at least 5-10 days wait.But i got my tracking number like few hours before Jim's announcement :) isnt it weird?
do you think they ll extend warranty for BT Scarlets?
 
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