Zack Birlew
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- Dec 28, 2006
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Hello, everybody, it's that time of year! NAB 2025 is a little over a month away and there's already been some good indications for what could be coming at the show! Here's some predictions following the surprisingly successful list from last year:
RED - With new Medium Format cine lenses making waves as Arri and Blackmagic have announced their new 65mm sensor cameras, I think RED will finally drop a bombshell of a Medium Format camera of their own! There's no need for it to be small, it can be a beefier XL-sized camera or even something along the lines of the original RED One MX but it wouldn't surprise me if they could figure out how to win the market on a size standpoint. In terms of resolution, I can see that RED could go toe-to-toe with the Blackmagic URSA 17K and have an even 16K model or even leapfrog the entire thing with a 24K model (if calculating by multiple sensor stitching of 8K). At the very least, perhaps a reserved 12K Medium Format solution could be possible with perhaps a focus on larger pixels than Blackmagic Design's new sensor design.
In addition, I think we will also see the first Nikon Z-mount RED cameras, whether they are Mark II models with updated features or just straight redesigned revisions of the Komodo, Rhino, and Raptor, it remains to be seen.
Nikon - Along with RED making waves with their new models, I predict Nikon will make a splash as well with at least one R3D codec-enabled camera, maybe a Nikon Z9 Mark II, and, going further, as RED will have a Medium Format camera, I think Nikon will surprise with a Medium Format stills camera that may have reduced resolution and frame rate options compared to the cinema camera offering from RED but with a focus on high megapixel stills and basic Medium Format video, this could be "THE" 65mm entry point camera of choice for many!
What remains to be seen with either of these developments are Nikon's lens developments! At the very least, many are expecting cinema versions of their Nikon Z lens lineup that may have compatibility with Nikon Z mount or will perhaps go with LPL but it again remains to be seen what can be done with adapting mirrorless lenses to cinema mounts. Alternatively, Nikon may decide to do their own cinema lenses independently of their Nikon Z photo lenses with revised optics for PL and LPL mounts or even do the reverse by going so far as to do all new Z mount-only cinema lenses going forward.
When it comes to Medium Format, the question really becomes if the Z mount can also work with 65mm format sensors or if there needs to be a new mount. Going with a new mount wouldn't be out of the question as Medium Format wouldn't need to stay on Nikon Z mount in the first place and any new mount will surely be able to work with PL, LPL, Hasselblad, and any other Medium Format mount by adapters, expanders, and reducers. Maybe they can call it a "Nikon Z XL" or "Nikon ZX" Mount?
Fujifilm - We already know that Fuji's new Fujifilm GFX Eterna camera is 99% going to be on display and working at the show. The question is will it have full Medium Format 8K coverage or will it truly be a GFX100 II in a video-centric body? I think either way it will be quite a tasteful camera for filmmakers to opt for with a truly wonderful GFX lens lineup already in place from Fuji and third-party providers. Adding to this will be already existing Medium Format speed boosters for larger sensor coverage for 645, 6x6, and 6x7 camera lenses.
Panasonic - Everybody seems to be quite antsy over whatever Panasonic is doing and could release. With the Arri LOG license for the GH7 shaking everybody's boots, we also have the long absent follow up to the S1H, EVA, and Varicam camera lines, whether 6K or 8K+. They have already released new 4K video cameras, so new 8K video cameras are out of the question unless they surprise with one new high end model.
My prediction for Panasonic is something maybe a little unexpected and bigger than many may think of. I predict that the license for Arri LOG was just a test and that the real news and talk of the show (and potentially the year) will be that Panasonic acquires Arri! It just makes sense that Panasonic would essentially be clearing the board for new high end camera development save for their Lumix lines which are on the already established consumer side of things. As Panasonic has also merged their consumer and professional imaging divisions, Arri's technology can infuse not only their video cameras going forward but also revitalize their still camera side as well with a competing Photo/Video combination lineup to go up against Nikon and RED with their upcoming shared technology offerings.
Sony - I predict that Sony will finally offer revised 8K versions of their FX camera lineup, perhaps being one model to start in order to replace the FX9, but they could do a double threat approach with an 8K FX3 and an 8K FX9 lineup to handle the small gimbal and drone side of things as well as have a more feature rich top end camera for A-camera work. This would essentially be a lower cost Venice Rialto solution that would cover 8K production.
The Burano may see a price cut as well with this new development in order to be a top end broadcast solution.
The real mystery of it all with Sony is whether they too will have a Medium Format camera. I can't help but think they will but whether they go after a Medium Format stills camera first or surprise with a top end Medium Format Venice is a tossup as I just haven't heard any rumors from the Sony side of things about that. In addition, the other surprise could be that Sony goes after full global shutter for all of their professional cameras going forward as they are invested in Virtual Production and that requires either a significantly fast sensor refresh rate like the Sony Venice series or they adopt global shutters. The Sony Alpha 9 III adopted a global shutter and it would be unusual for Sony to continue developing global shutter if fast sensor refresh rates were truly suitable enough going forward for professional applications. It would be simple to surmise that a combination of both would produce the best solution, so that might potentially be their approach whether it comes in a Venice 3 or a Medium Format Venice or both.
I think Sony may also finally update their video camera lines to follow Panasonic with new 6K or 8K video camera models with Sony's classic night vision mode on top. A new 2/3" 8K model would be nice to see as well to cover broadcast. The small RX0 series may be out of the situation but at the same time, if they could add an 8K model of that to go with their new video cameras then they'll have a really compelling action camera solution to compete with the Insta360 8K cameras.
Arri - Aside from the Panasonic prediction, Arri will be showing off their Alexa 265 camera. I'm not sure what more they could have aside from that but if a Panasonic S1H II can provide compact ARRI Log with 6K or 8K then they could have the consumer and prosumer side of things wrapped up nicely along with offering a Medium Format Arri solution all in one show! The other opportunity is to include ARRIRAW internally as an option onto CFExpress, albeit possibly at compressed rates without a Codex unit.
Canon - With Canon once again pushing forward with competitive solutions but at the same time falling behind the high end production side, I can only suppose that they will be the only major competitor without a Medium Format solution at NAB. However, new 8K solutions to compete with Full Frame offerings could be in the cards, like a C800 that follows their current direction but doesn't fall for the failings of the C700 cameras that preceded it by embracing a far more competitive price and adds high end features many have been hoping to build upon with the R5 series and the Canon C70/80. The R5C Mark II could be the camera unveiling of the show, although it may not be called the "R5C Mark II", as Canon needs to keep going on the 8K+ train on their higher end models as the industry will firmly be moving well beyond 4K and 6K at the show and going forward.
DJI - With the ban issues for the company, the question will be if there will be a new drone at the show and even a new camera solution based on the Ronin 4D series. We'll have to see but I predict a more compact version of the Ronin 4D as well as new lenses.
I may have some more predictions but for now those are the ones I'm thinking of. What do you think we may see at the show? Any new innovations or surprise products that could turn up? Let's hear the predictions!
RED - With new Medium Format cine lenses making waves as Arri and Blackmagic have announced their new 65mm sensor cameras, I think RED will finally drop a bombshell of a Medium Format camera of their own! There's no need for it to be small, it can be a beefier XL-sized camera or even something along the lines of the original RED One MX but it wouldn't surprise me if they could figure out how to win the market on a size standpoint. In terms of resolution, I can see that RED could go toe-to-toe with the Blackmagic URSA 17K and have an even 16K model or even leapfrog the entire thing with a 24K model (if calculating by multiple sensor stitching of 8K). At the very least, perhaps a reserved 12K Medium Format solution could be possible with perhaps a focus on larger pixels than Blackmagic Design's new sensor design.
In addition, I think we will also see the first Nikon Z-mount RED cameras, whether they are Mark II models with updated features or just straight redesigned revisions of the Komodo, Rhino, and Raptor, it remains to be seen.
Nikon - Along with RED making waves with their new models, I predict Nikon will make a splash as well with at least one R3D codec-enabled camera, maybe a Nikon Z9 Mark II, and, going further, as RED will have a Medium Format camera, I think Nikon will surprise with a Medium Format stills camera that may have reduced resolution and frame rate options compared to the cinema camera offering from RED but with a focus on high megapixel stills and basic Medium Format video, this could be "THE" 65mm entry point camera of choice for many!
What remains to be seen with either of these developments are Nikon's lens developments! At the very least, many are expecting cinema versions of their Nikon Z lens lineup that may have compatibility with Nikon Z mount or will perhaps go with LPL but it again remains to be seen what can be done with adapting mirrorless lenses to cinema mounts. Alternatively, Nikon may decide to do their own cinema lenses independently of their Nikon Z photo lenses with revised optics for PL and LPL mounts or even do the reverse by going so far as to do all new Z mount-only cinema lenses going forward.
When it comes to Medium Format, the question really becomes if the Z mount can also work with 65mm format sensors or if there needs to be a new mount. Going with a new mount wouldn't be out of the question as Medium Format wouldn't need to stay on Nikon Z mount in the first place and any new mount will surely be able to work with PL, LPL, Hasselblad, and any other Medium Format mount by adapters, expanders, and reducers. Maybe they can call it a "Nikon Z XL" or "Nikon ZX" Mount?
Fujifilm - We already know that Fuji's new Fujifilm GFX Eterna camera is 99% going to be on display and working at the show. The question is will it have full Medium Format 8K coverage or will it truly be a GFX100 II in a video-centric body? I think either way it will be quite a tasteful camera for filmmakers to opt for with a truly wonderful GFX lens lineup already in place from Fuji and third-party providers. Adding to this will be already existing Medium Format speed boosters for larger sensor coverage for 645, 6x6, and 6x7 camera lenses.
Panasonic - Everybody seems to be quite antsy over whatever Panasonic is doing and could release. With the Arri LOG license for the GH7 shaking everybody's boots, we also have the long absent follow up to the S1H, EVA, and Varicam camera lines, whether 6K or 8K+. They have already released new 4K video cameras, so new 8K video cameras are out of the question unless they surprise with one new high end model.
My prediction for Panasonic is something maybe a little unexpected and bigger than many may think of. I predict that the license for Arri LOG was just a test and that the real news and talk of the show (and potentially the year) will be that Panasonic acquires Arri! It just makes sense that Panasonic would essentially be clearing the board for new high end camera development save for their Lumix lines which are on the already established consumer side of things. As Panasonic has also merged their consumer and professional imaging divisions, Arri's technology can infuse not only their video cameras going forward but also revitalize their still camera side as well with a competing Photo/Video combination lineup to go up against Nikon and RED with their upcoming shared technology offerings.
Sony - I predict that Sony will finally offer revised 8K versions of their FX camera lineup, perhaps being one model to start in order to replace the FX9, but they could do a double threat approach with an 8K FX3 and an 8K FX9 lineup to handle the small gimbal and drone side of things as well as have a more feature rich top end camera for A-camera work. This would essentially be a lower cost Venice Rialto solution that would cover 8K production.
The Burano may see a price cut as well with this new development in order to be a top end broadcast solution.
The real mystery of it all with Sony is whether they too will have a Medium Format camera. I can't help but think they will but whether they go after a Medium Format stills camera first or surprise with a top end Medium Format Venice is a tossup as I just haven't heard any rumors from the Sony side of things about that. In addition, the other surprise could be that Sony goes after full global shutter for all of their professional cameras going forward as they are invested in Virtual Production and that requires either a significantly fast sensor refresh rate like the Sony Venice series or they adopt global shutters. The Sony Alpha 9 III adopted a global shutter and it would be unusual for Sony to continue developing global shutter if fast sensor refresh rates were truly suitable enough going forward for professional applications. It would be simple to surmise that a combination of both would produce the best solution, so that might potentially be their approach whether it comes in a Venice 3 or a Medium Format Venice or both.
I think Sony may also finally update their video camera lines to follow Panasonic with new 6K or 8K video camera models with Sony's classic night vision mode on top. A new 2/3" 8K model would be nice to see as well to cover broadcast. The small RX0 series may be out of the situation but at the same time, if they could add an 8K model of that to go with their new video cameras then they'll have a really compelling action camera solution to compete with the Insta360 8K cameras.
Arri - Aside from the Panasonic prediction, Arri will be showing off their Alexa 265 camera. I'm not sure what more they could have aside from that but if a Panasonic S1H II can provide compact ARRI Log with 6K or 8K then they could have the consumer and prosumer side of things wrapped up nicely along with offering a Medium Format Arri solution all in one show! The other opportunity is to include ARRIRAW internally as an option onto CFExpress, albeit possibly at compressed rates without a Codex unit.
Canon - With Canon once again pushing forward with competitive solutions but at the same time falling behind the high end production side, I can only suppose that they will be the only major competitor without a Medium Format solution at NAB. However, new 8K solutions to compete with Full Frame offerings could be in the cards, like a C800 that follows their current direction but doesn't fall for the failings of the C700 cameras that preceded it by embracing a far more competitive price and adds high end features many have been hoping to build upon with the R5 series and the Canon C70/80. The R5C Mark II could be the camera unveiling of the show, although it may not be called the "R5C Mark II", as Canon needs to keep going on the 8K+ train on their higher end models as the industry will firmly be moving well beyond 4K and 6K at the show and going forward.
DJI - With the ban issues for the company, the question will be if there will be a new drone at the show and even a new camera solution based on the Ronin 4D series. We'll have to see but I predict a more compact version of the Ronin 4D as well as new lenses.
I may have some more predictions but for now those are the ones I'm thinking of. What do you think we may see at the show? Any new innovations or surprise products that could turn up? Let's hear the predictions!
