KOMODO....

[Andrew R Lewis]

Aha! How do you know it’s nonsense if you haven’t read it? I’ll have you know that, buried within every long-winded post I make on Reduser, you’ll find a hidden gem of wisdom and the secret to a happy life.

Also, before this thread, I hadn’t really commented in this forum for a few years. I’m getting it all in at once instead of spreading it out.

I have one more short response to Christoffer and then I’m done.

I love the conversation.

But take it to 2.

 

[Brian Boyer]

Here's me:

[To Misha] If a time comes where BMD produces something better, or even comparable, for substantially less than what RED and Arri are offering, then they'll have to reevaluate. [To you]...if they lose some people to the lure of a $2,500 camera that gets them 80% of what RED gets them, I think they're going to have to be ok with that, as long as there's a significant market that values the extra 20% that using RED affords them.

Now, here's you:

You essentially communicate that Red is not interested in the owner-operator market who will move over to less expensive but equally capable in quality. That is the point I argued against...

Here's me:

Most people go for the middle range...Yes, RED sells more cameras to the middle - the owner-operator crowd makes up the bulk of their sales.

Inexplicably, here's you:

But the reasoning you put forward is that Red's aim at the high-end cinema is the bulk of their business. I would argue against that and say that the mid-tier is their business. The high-end is marketing,...

Here's me:

Prices will drop at some point; maybe considerably. RED and others will sell their camera lines for less than they do now. The increase in quality at the bottom will drive the price decreases across the board. You're right about that.

Here's you:

...you are arguing based on the status quo of how its been, not what we're heading towards...my point is still being missed here, EVERYONE is doing it as you yourself say, which means the highest tier price-points will drop when ceilings are hit.

Now, ironically, after all that I've demonstrated above and in all seriousness, you say:

If you deliberately misinterpret what I'm actually saying, there's no wonder you're confused with my argument.

Umm...yeah.

...I don't really see the argument you are trying to make,...

On that, I strongly agree. Sooooo, as promised, I'm going to bow out. Believe me, it's taking every fiber of my being not to directly address your comments on tiers, the audio market, diminishing returns, etc.

I will say this: I didn't argue Monstro will fall to $17.5K because new RED cameras will fit the premium price - $17.5K would be the premium price. I meant whatever RED's top-of-the-line camera would be when the major price shift happens could only be $17.5K, compared to $55K now. Remember, I was using Monstro as an example of their top camera.

Anyway, I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding in terminology going on here that we can't seem to overcome. When I write "primary" you see "largest." My idea of premium is the most expensive, top-tier camera RED offers at any given time - it speaks to scalability. Your idea seems to be tied to a specific dollar amount/range.

As far as I know, RED is the only digital cinema camera company that's successfully been able to straddle the middle and top tiers with their camera lines. However much cinema camera prices drop, they should be able to continue that model and leave the very bottom to the companies that can better operate there. Time will tell if I'm right. That is all.

 

[Mestizo Devon]

nope. it's all speculation. which is getting old. with canon's announcement and sony's next week, red better reveal the full specs soon.

+1 We need more real info

 

[Christoffer Glans]

Here's me:


Now, here's you:



Here's me:


Inexplicably, here's you:



Here's me:


Here's you:



Now, ironically, after all that I've demonstrated above and in all seriousness, you say:


Umm...yeah.

You are taking a dynamic, on-going back and forth discussion with expansion notes out of plenty of context in order to do... what?
Feels like you just want to be "right", but what is "right" here? We are making predictions and I my point was that I think you missed a few factors on a subject we are mostly both onboard with, therefore missing a grander picture to the upcoming camera landscape. So the nitpicks seems more like you just want to win the argument instead of actually reading into the whole context of what I wrote. You complain about me misunderstanding when you write something likewise able to be misunderstood.

The bottom line, the point I went into much detail about, is that we cannot look at the status quo from the past few years of camera technological advancement to reach a conclusion about the coming years market. Because there are other factors that come into play now. I think it's better to list them here in a clear way.

Diminishing returns in camera tech capabilities
- Higher K numbers
- Higher stop numbers
- Higher framerate numbers
- Higher sensitivity
- Larger sensors

All of these will hit a ceiling by the factor that users won't need more past a certain point. There is still development in areas such as lower noise floors with a cleaner image across the dynamic range, but all of these things have slowed down at the highest-end with mid-tier cameras closing in on the same numbers, closing the gap between what is high-end and what is middle range.

Brand recognition is also a factor, where Arri and Red have been the top dogs since around ten years back and leading the pack. But with all others closing in, brands start to not matter as much. The marketing of having a specific camera in the biggest productions made today is not as it was when we moved from 35mm over to digital. And with increasing knowledge of digital cinema among industry people, the choice of a camera does not automatically equal a Red or Arri today. People start using Sonys, Panasonics and some even try out lesser-known brands. This will affect the marketing impact of having a Red or Arri in a major motion picture.

Ease of use is another factor, the mid-tier users value a smooth workflow for getting good images and with a decreasing gap between smaller low-cost cameras and the high tier top cameras, those people will start to find alternatives to Red and Arri because of their easier workflow. It's easier for an owner-operator to set up a small camera like the Pocket 6K or Z Cam or S1H both on regular tripods, hand-rigs, but also advanced motion control sliders and gimbals that have a weight limit. Previously there was a choice in getting a great image quality but cut back on special camera movements or easy setups to move around with a small crew.
- But when the picture quality rivals the big cameras, you don't have to choose and therefore you will choose what gives you the most options as an owner-operator.

If you meant that expensive top tier cameras, like the Monstro, will fall to $17500 in order to compete with upcoming low-cost models, I'll agree with you. That is along the line with what I'm actually saying throughout my writing. Red, Arri and all the top tier cameras will have to lower their prices or stay niched to the highest budget productions who can afford whatever camera they like. This is what Arri is doing with the Alexa 65. There's no need to release such an expensive camera to the market since it's so clearly niched towards the very highest budget productions available that can handle both its workflow and cinematography. All the rest of the high-end camera models will have to fall back. The original Alexa Mini is still sold for close to $40 000, which is damn near a mentally insane high price for such a limited camera in 2019.

And this is why we are really talking about the same thing, but around each others arguments. The conclusion of what is coming is rather simple:

- High-end cameras models will radically drop in price if they are aimed at mid-tier users, owner-operators and smaller production companies.
- Top-end cameras, like the Alexa 65, the DXL2, Red Ranger etc. will probably keep their prices but be limited to rental only and used only for the highest budget productions.
- Owner-operators and mid-tier users will have a much larger pool of camera options, all capable of pretty much the same thing across the board and sales will be dictated by price-points as more and more hit diminishing return-ceilings in camera capabilities.

Prices for the mid-tier and owner-operator market will be around $2000 - $20 000. Anything higher will not make sense as diminishing returns of technology increases.

 

[Brian Boyer]

Jarred's clearly not showing us the top of the camera for some reason. I suspect bolt hole cheese, connectors, buttons, or some sort of combination of all that. I think the weirdest thing would be an integrated menu screen there w/ monitoring perhaps, but who knows. That would be really interesting to have some sort of fold out and spin LCD touch screen there, but that's not a lot of space up top. One of my early asks, though not possible, was to get video out of the DSMC2 Sidekick because I was working with drones early on a bunch and it would have been a nice sanity check when wireless dropped due to interference in big cities.

Since RED is integrating so much here; mount and battery, it wouldn't shock me if they could pull off an integrated articulated display up top. It would be impressive as hell actually considering the real estate available from everything we've seen so far. It would need to be a robust mechanism because in the world of smaller mirrorless cameras that is very much something that breaks early and often for some shooters. But maybe there's more to it that that, maybe something else is up there. I'm shooting in the dark here until I see it in person.

If it is fully integrated and all you need is a lens, media, and battery to film something; this would be the first time RED has done anything so streamlined. Even without the LCD, it is already.

I was thinking the same thing about the flip-up, articulating screen just before you posted this. That would be nice. The way RED has done things in the past is they reward early adopters for their support. Let's say they couldn't get the Hydrogen/camera concept to work the way they initially envisioned or thought better of the idea as the market changed.

My guess is they integrated the screen on Komodo and will effectively give it to Hydrogen owners for free via the discount Jarred mentioned.

I thought two other reasons Jarred is saving the top view for a later date are:

1) A flip-up, articulating phone bracket for using a smart phone as a screen, as some have posited will be the case for monitoring.

2) An array of buttons, switches and knobs unlike RED has done before. However, the more I think about it, the less likely this seems. Since there aren't XLR inputs on camera, I don't know how useful knobs would be, as they are usually for adjusting audio. There's no built-in ND filter, so no need to control that from the body. A data knob and a few buttons for preset functions (like they've had before on the monitors and side handle) maybe, but that's hardly worth the hush-hush.

So, I'm going with integrated screen followed by the bracket/phone idea.

 

[Misha Engel]

Here's me:

[To Misha] If a time comes where BMD produces something better, or even comparable, for substantially less than what RED and Arri are offering, then they'll have to reevaluate. [To you]...if they lose some people to the lure of a $2,500 camera that gets them 80% of what RED gets them, I think they're going to have to be ok with that, as long as there's a significant market that values the extra 20% that using RED affords them.

.

UMP G2 $10k vs. ARRI AMIRA $40k both are 2k/FHD camera's able to produce some sort of 4k/UHD.
Throwing all pros. and cons. together, they are about equal.

Since one camera is no camera you need atleast 2 of them when you do a paid shoot. For us the $60k price difference is a lot when it doesn't bring advantages(not counting insurance cost, storage, batt., etc..).

When we need 4k/UHD output we rent Heliums(fit's nice with our s35 lens sets).

As long as BMD has a good price/perf ratio, they can count us in as customer.

Looking forward to IBC.

 

[Brian Boyer]

UMP G2 $10k vs. ARRI AMIRA $40k both are 2k/FHD camera's able to produce some sort of 4k/UHD.
Throwing all pros. and cons. together, they are about equal.

Since one camera is no camera you need atleast 2 of them when you do a paid shoot. For us the $60k price difference is a lot when it doesn't bring advantages(not counting insurance cost, storage, batt., etc..).

When we need 4k/UHD output we rent Heliums(fit's nice with our s35 lens sets).

As long as BMD has a good price/perf ratio, they can count us in as customer.

Looking forward to IBC.

I get the appeal of the URSA Mini Pro G2. When the first URSA Mini was announced I was all over BMCUser. I was ready to dive in if it was a significant improvement in image quality (not the whiz-bang stuff like higher frame rates) over my Scarlet Dragon. Ultimately, I decided against it. The image just wasn't there for me.

I thought the same about the C200, C300, FS5, FS7, and EVA-1.

I get the appeal of BMD's cameras and the gap seems to be closing at the moment. Like I told Christoffer, if I didn't already have my Scarlet Dragon, I'd be zeroing in on the Pocket 6K, UMP G2 or possibly even Z CAM, but that one's more of a long-shot.

Still, given what's out there, even with the lower frame rates, heavier body, and slightly more noise in shadows (which I've made abundantly clear I don't care all that much about over the years on Reduser - I'm exclusively STH OLPF), the overall image quality of the Scarlet Dragon is hard to beat, IMO.

You use what works for you. My dad always says a good deal is the one you're happy with.

 

[jordan levy]

You are taking a dynamic, on-going back and forth discussion with expansion notes out of plenty of context in order to do... what?
Feels like you just want to be "right", but what is "right" here? We are making predictions and I my point was that I think you missed a few factors on a subject we are mostly both onboard with, therefore missing a grander picture to the upcoming camera landscape. So the nitpicks seems more like you just want to win the argument instead of actually reading into the whole context of what I wrote. You complain about me misunderstanding when you write something likewise able to be misunderstood.

The bottom line, the point I went into much detail about, is that we cannot look at the status quo from the past few years of camera technological advancement to reach a conclusion about the coming years market. Because there are other factors that come into play now. I think it's better to list them here in a clear way.

Diminishing returns in camera tech capabilities
- Higher K numbers
- Higher stop numbers
- Higher framerate numbers
- Higher sensitivity
- Larger sensors

All of these will hit a ceiling by the factor that users won't need more past a certain point. There is still development in areas such as lower noise floors with a cleaner image across the dynamic range, but all of these things have slowed down at the highest-end with mid-tier cameras closing in on the same numbers, closing the gap between what is high-end and what is middle range.

Brand recognition is also a factor, where Arri and Red have been the top dogs since around ten years back and leading the pack. But with all others closing in, brands start to not matter as much. The marketing of having a specific camera in the biggest productions made today is not as it was when we moved from 35mm over to digital. And with increasing knowledge of digital cinema among industry people, the choice of a camera does not automatically equal a Red or Arri today. People start using Sonys, Panasonics and some even try out lesser-known brands. This will affect the marketing impact of having a Red or Arri in a major motion picture.

Ease of use is another factor, the mid-tier users value a smooth workflow for getting good images and with a decreasing gap between smaller low-cost cameras and the high tier top cameras, those people will start to find alternatives to Red and Arri because of their easier workflow. It's easier for an owner-operator to set up a small camera like the Pocket 6K or Z Cam or S1H both on regular tripods, hand-rigs, but also advanced motion control sliders and gimbals that have a weight limit. Previously there was a choice in getting a great image quality but cut back on special camera movements or easy setups to move around with a small crew.
- But when the picture quality rivals the big cameras, you don't have to choose and therefore you will choose what gives you the most options as an owner-operator.

If you meant that expensive top tier cameras, like the Monstro, will fall to $17500 in order to compete with upcoming low-cost models, I'll agree with you. That is along the line with what I'm actually saying throughout my writing. Red, Arri and all the top tier cameras will have to lower their prices or stay niched to the highest budget productions who can afford whatever camera they like. This is what Arri is doing with the Alexa 65. There's no need to release such an expensive camera to the market since it's so clearly niched towards the very highest budget productions available that can handle both its workflow and cinematography. All the rest of the high-end camera models will have to fall back. The original Alexa Mini is still sold for close to $40 000, which is damn near a mentally insane high price for such a limited camera in 2019.

And this is why we are really talking about the same thing, but around each others arguments. The conclusion of what is coming is rather simple:

- High-end cameras models will radically drop in price if they are aimed at mid-tier users, owner-operators and smaller production companies.
- Top-end cameras, like the Alexa 65, the DXL2, Red Ranger etc. will probably keep their prices but be limited to rental only and used only for the highest budget productions.
- Owner-operators and mid-tier users will have a much larger pool of camera options, all capable of pretty much the same thing across the board and sales will be dictated by price-points as more and more hit diminishing return-ceilings in camera capabilities.

Prices for the mid-tier and owner-operator market will be around $2000 - $20 000. Anything higher will not make sense as diminishing returns of technology increases.

holy crap this is still going
please put down the coffee.

 

[Christoffer Glans]

holy crap this is still going
please put down the coffee.

If you want a summary of what came before, that was it :tongue_smilie: and hopefully that discussion has reached some conclusions.

 

[jordan levy]

If you want a summary of what came before, that was it :tongue_smilie: and hopefully that discussion has reached some conclusions.

Jarred save us! :angelsad2:

 

[Samir Patel]

Reduser has become sooo boring... Zero leaks from Jarred anymore... Long ass nauseating posts between members with bones to pick in the public and not in private... Moderators... (Who knows where)... I miss the old place queue music.... "where every...body... knows your name!"

 

[olivier harrault]

Page 100 ... and this thread is more a like university course about marketing .... much better if you have a drink instead :cheers2: I just kidding guys !!! but what I want to read is news about this f%* camera ...
Love what RED does, Love their cameras .... but yes reduser was way more fun when Jarred posted some hidden message ....
I miss those quick answer with beans to eat :cheers2:

 

[andrewhake]

Reduser has become sooo boring... Zero leaks from Jarred anymore... Long ass nauseating posts between members with bones to pick in the public and not in private... Moderators... (Who knows where)... I miss the old place queue music.... "where every...body... knows your name!"

A circle jerk of pointless speculation and pontification about nothing.

 

[Aaron Lochert]

Reduser has become sooo boring... Zero leaks from Jarred anymore... Long ass nauseating posts between members with bones to pick in the public and not in private... Moderators... (Who knows where)... I miss the old place queue music.... "where every...body... knows your name!"

At least this one doesn't have every single example of test footage that exists on the internet embedded in it yet.

 

[Jake Wilganowski]

At least this one doesn't have every single example of test footage that exists on the internet embedded in it yet.

well, just wait, because once they start....

 

[Brian Boyer]

A circle jerk of pointless speculation and pontification about nothing.

I’ve been around here long enough to know that’s pretty much Reduser’s brand. At least I warned you it was coming...way back on page 91.

 

[Jacek Zakowicz]

At least this one doesn't have every single example of test footage that exists on the internet embedded in it yet.

Yes this footage reposting is out of control. I had to put him on my ignore list.

 

[Christoffer Glans]

Better to be involved in a complex, detailed discussion while we wait, instead of just spamming posts about wanting more info. There's nothing else to do while we wait for more info about Komodo. This is a forum after all, not a news outlet, and arguments and discussions occur and should occur. It's the whole point of a forum.

 

[Stephan Meier]

Yes this footage reposting is out of control. I had to put him on my ignore list.

+1. :001_unsure:

 

[Bérenger Brillante]

Yes this footage reposting is out of control. I had to put him on my ignore list.

We can do that? I feel my reduser will be so much cleaner in the next few days.