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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Guessing game...

Joseph Hutson said:
Correct. And as you probably know as well, that original "S35 Scarlet" concept is found to not be viably made. That concept starts at close to $12,000 for the brain only. Ten, you are looking at close to $20,000 just to get a basic package.

Is even a $15,000 package like that going to please the general "ScarletUser" crowd? From what I've gathered, even $10,000 is pushing their budget....
Click to expand...

But, we are not contemplating 5K for Scarlet, which was the planned spec for EPIC-S.
As I understand RED engineers have made an incredibly scalable system with ASIC boards. (HDRx introduction to Scarlet required just additional ASIC board/s).
Therefore speculated Nov 3rd Scarlet could be seen in two ways:
- EPIC-S stripped of several ASICs and "smaller" (4K) sensor - pushing down $12,000 for the brain to ... insert you favorite value
- Scarlet 2/3 with additional ASICs and "bigger" (4K) sensor - pushing up the mentioned $6,000 for the package to ... insert you favorite value

It's simple to write it down - it takes some of the smartest and most dedicated group of people to do the following - slap in a required xK sensor. Based on x, roughly estimate the number of ASIC boards required. Test and tweak the system recursively until you have squeezed out the maximum performance out of the minimum number of ASICs.

Anyway, whatever the xK sensor ends up in Scarlet, I now that RED will be squeezing every last drop of performance out of Scarlet during October. So I wish them all the peace and quiet during the next month. We shall all benefit from it.
 
Though there is one argument against Scarlet being 4K, S35, interchangeable and brain price under (let's throw a wild number here) $15,000.
I never actually saw this argument directly mentioned besides in one of my posts in another thread.
RED ONE!
While I can perfectly picture Jim offering a new generation camera with roughly same specs for half the money and retire the RED One, I cannot picture the following.
Let's say I buy a RED ONE brain for $25,000 today. Then on Nov3 rd, a month from now, there is a half size half price brain with comparable specs. I would feel kind of stupid, and ... and ...
ONLY this fact makes me doubt in Scarlet being 4K, S35, interchangeable and brain price under (let's throw a wild number here) $15,000.
 
Still. Under the RED ONE restriction logic, Scarlet could be:
- S35, 3K, interchangeable (like)
- 2/3, 4K, interchangeable (doubt but also like)

After all the posts about huge change coming, improved ideas over time, etc... - I strongly doubt the only change would be the removal of the fixed lens.
 
Joseph Hutson said:
Correct. And as you probably know as well, that original "S35 Scarlet" concept is found to not be viably made. That concept starts at close to $12,000 for the brain only. Ten, you are looking at close to $20,000 just to get a basic package.

Is even a $15,000 package like that going to please the general "ScarletUser" crowd? From what I've gathered, even $10,000 is pushing their budget....
Click to expand...

Really, I think there could/should be a range of pricing. My particular flavour would be: S35, 4K, RAW and Ana mode (for my beloved Lomos).

If there was range of Scarlets or the Epic-S came back on the map, that would be great.

I've been pushing my partners and Producer to get an Epic-M... but they're resisting (damn them!)... and currently there is NO mid range solution from Red (other than a Red - LOL). Logic dictates, to me, either a high end Scarlet that knocks on the door of Epic (but without 5K) or a new Epic model.

However, I am excited with the notion of the fixed Scarlet... it would become my camera (rather than my employer's) - and I like S16mm (shot a lot in days gone by - the UK didn't use 35mm for much in the late 80's/early 90's)... and, if it's in the $5K-7K region it'd be a home run and no-brainer buy... even at $10K.

So something along these lines as a product range (in my imagination - LOL! :001_smile:

Scarlet 3K - this is the range targeted at the entry level user and the original 'mass' market/user base.

Scarlet 3K fixed (maybe 3K/Raw/HRDX/max 120fps) $10K (presuming Red are still going to loose $$ on the lens, as they mentioned before)
Scarlet 3K interchangeable (still 3K/Raw/HRDX/max 120 fps) $8K plus lens mount (PL or Canon etc) adds $2K
*obviously, this is Brain price only - so add another $5K-$8K for extras (depending upon requirements).

Scarlet 4K - a step up and essentially an 'Epic' without 5K

Scarlet 4K (4K, Raw, Ana, max 120 fps) $16K (with standard PL mount)
Scarlet 4K+ (4K, Raw, Ana, HRDX, max 120fps) $24K (with standard PL mount)
*obviously, this is Brain price only - so add another $10K-$15K for extras (depending upon requirements).

Epic - the top of the line (approx 'allin' packages as per pricing now)

Epic M (5K, Raw, Ana, 300fps, HRDX etc) $58K
Epic X 'post Stage4' (5K, Raw, Ana, 300fps, HRDX etc) maybe $50K

I'm sure the two J's and the rest of Red have this in hand... just really expressing an opinion and thinking out loud!

But this gives a range of users access to varying new Red kit... it might be too many models for Red to maintain, but it's a product line that would tick many boxes for a range of users, and most of it could be done by simple software/hardware enable/disable (ala Sony & the F3 S-log) so HRDX enable would be a simple factory/send to Red update if the camera is capable running it.
 
Andy White said:
...and most of it could be done by simple software/hardware enable/disable (ala Sony & the F3 S-log) so HRDX enable would be a simple factory/send to Red update if the camera is capable running it.
Click to expand...

agree with quite a lot of what you said except that, deliberately handycapping cameras doesn't seem like RED! but i think your right about there being more flavours/ price points of scarlet than we were expecting a month ago...

so that hour before orders are taken could prove to be a sweaty affair for some!
 
Tobias Ashenheim said:
agree with quite a lot of what you said except that, deliberately handycapping cameras doesn't seem like RED! but i think your right about there being more flavours/ price points of scarlet than we were expecting a month ago...

so that hour before orders are taken could prove to be a sweaty affair for some!
Click to expand...

Yes - agree on the sweaty affair! One of those 'wow... damn... wow... mmm... errr...wow... check calculator... check clock... click mouse... check clock...' moments(!)

I suspect we'll get multiple Scarlets and some type of hint on the Epic-S (if the Scarlet+ model doesn't replace it!).

I don't think it's a case of Red handicapping... HRDX would be the only function (IMO!) that could be a paid for upgrade - some want it & some don't, but all bodies in my 'fantasy 4K Scarlet' line-up would have the ability to run it - they just wouldn't have it enabled. It would give a cheaper 'buy-in/purchase point' and allow users to step up later (if required).

But anyway - we're all just guessing - this is Red and who knows what crazy cool stuff Jim and the gang will pull out of their hats!!!
 
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Marko Hocevar said:
Though there is one argument against Scarlet being 4K, S35, interchangeable and brain price under (let's throw a wild number here) $15,000.
I never actually saw this argument directly mentioned besides in one of my posts in another thread.
RED ONE!
While I can perfectly picture Jim offering a new generation camera with roughly same specs for half the money and retire the RED One, I cannot picture the following.
Let's say I buy a RED ONE brain for $25,000 today. Then on Nov3 rd, a month from now, there is a half size half price brain with comparable specs. I would feel kind of stupid, and ... and ...
ONLY this fact makes me doubt in Scarlet being 4K, S35, interchangeable and brain price under (let's throw a wild number here) $15,000.
Click to expand...

Let's say I buy a iPhone 4 on May 5th 2012, and the next day iPhone 5 get's released at the same price, but with better features? That's a pretty normal scenarium, except at Red. But since Red is such a new firm, we haven't seen old products being replaced by new and better/cheaper ones. Life sucks, but this seems like a normal procedure.
 
Red One is likely to be EOL fairly soon. It is a first gen camera not designed for cost efficient production line assembly using outdated FPGA processors in a somewhat clumsy form factor.
With the new modular mass production design, software and many components shared across all models in the system it seems more than reasonable that Red could mass produce a smaller 4k S35 sensor brain similar in performance to the original R1 with better DR and HDRx for about half the original cost of an R1 somewhere in the range of the original Scarlet S35 projected cost. If there is any way Red can do this, you know they will.
 
My guess is simple. Instead of 3K for $3K, it'll be $5k for 5k, or something along those lines.

It would be classic Red to claim that it was too expensive, keep saying that it was going to get more expensive, throw the competition off their trail, keep claiming that the price was going to be really high, and them BAM! Red would pull off a Red and say "just kidding."
 
Marko Hocevar said:
But, we are not contemplating 5K for Scarlet, which was the planned spec for EPIC-S.
As I understand RED engineers have made an incredibly scalable system with ASIC boards. (HDRx introduction to Scarlet required just additional ASIC board/s).
Therefore speculated Nov 3rd Scarlet could be seen in two ways:
- EPIC-S stripped of several ASICs and "smaller" (4K) sensor - pushing down $12,000 for the brain to ... insert you favorite value
- Scarlet 2/3 with additional ASICs and "bigger" (4K) sensor - pushing up the mentioned $6,000 for the package to ... insert you favorite value

It's simple to write it down - it takes some of the smartest and most dedicated group of people to do the following - slap in a required xK sensor. Based on x, roughly estimate the number of ASIC boards required. Test and tweak the system recursively until you have squeezed out the maximum performance out of the minimum number of ASICs.

Anyway, whatever the xK sensor ends up in Scarlet, I now that RED will be squeezing every last drop of performance out of Scarlet during October. So I wish them all the peace and quiet during the next month. We shall all benefit from it.
Click to expand...

I doubt very much that there would be a 2/3 sensor with 4K for several reasons: There are very few lenses that could support that kind of resolution and redesigning the sensor (R&D) would take far too long for a release by the end of the year. However, cutting a larger sample of the wafer while maintaining the same pixel design (pitch) would be slightly more feasible, ie. super 16 or 4/3, or Monstro having a completely different (larger) pixel pitch than the current MX lineup.
 
David Rasberry said:
Red One is likely to be EOL fairly soon. It is a first gen camera not designed for cost efficient production line assembly using outdated FPGA processors in a somewhat clumsy form factor.
With the new modular mass production design, software and many components shared across all models in the system it seems more than reasonable that Red could mass produce a smaller 4k S35 sensor brain similar in performance to the original R1 with better DR and HDRx for about half the original cost of an R1 somewhere in the range of the original Scarlet S35 projected cost. If there is any way Red can do this, you know they will.
Click to expand...
I suppose anything's possible. It seems unlikely Red would take a step backward with S35 and go from 5K to 4K. I'm not sure why Red would do this -- or how they could, in effect, design and ship a whole new camera in about six or eight months. Red was touting Epic-S only a few months ago. But I have to believe that "the camera you want is at the end of the year" -- a response to queries about Epic-S -- must refer to an S35 camera. The possibilities: (1) design a whole new sensor and camera, or (2) use a relatively mature, proven 5K sensor. Which could be faster?
 
Oh, and the announcements...

3PM:

Red Digital Cinema Camera Co. offically buys Canon Camera Division of Canon Inc.

6PM:

Jim buys RedUser and Mr Nattress and round of 21Yr old Scotch :) While smoking a handrolled Cuban (being from Red Commie Cuba, seems right :)
 
As far as speculation goes, you can't have to increase the cost of Epic to 35K and then release an S35 scarlet at under 10K. Just doesn't make sense.

I'm hoping for a 2/3" scarlet at 4K with a great HD-SDI out for 7-8K. Fixed or interchangeable. I would like to use Scarlets for 2 main purposes. Studio cameras to replace 2/3" Sony cameras. Run and gun hand held production cameras for capturing demos, and conferences and news. $5K for a studio module (all over fiber to a CCU) with redmote capabilities.

I would buy at least 15 of those. Where, I only need 5 Epics, which we still need anyway. Although Epic-S is our budget for those. I plan on having an X at the major sites and several S's at the other sites.
 
This thread is a nice test of what is called the wisdom of crowds and the idiocy of crowds. If the collective guess matches well with the outcome, then it shows the forum have been able to read Jim and the others and to form an idea of what is coming. But, if the guess goes completely wrong, then it suggests that we indeed "haven't seen nuting yet", see

http://dylan.tweney.com/2006/12/07/the-idiocy-of-crowds/

My 2 cents here are: if or since 1080p is not good enough, is 2K already good enough? Guess not, but what about 3K, is that good enough?!? My reasoning is, Scarlet was designed to be 3K and Epic 5K because 4K was the bailiwick of R1. But now, since everything has delayed quite a bit, the setting has changed and the position of R1 is no longer of the same priority.

While saying this have to confess, not sure whether this is what I would like to see instead of what I think will happen. Nevertheless, it's fun to speculate and Jarred and the others can have a laugh when the rest of us try to be smart in the guessing work.
 
SSD prices have dropped drastically so RED could lower memory prices, and that is a huge help for us doc shooters who need to film hours to get a few minutes. I know a nature guy who films 17 hours to get one minute usuable. What if the surprise was lowered memory prices? For me that would be better than the other speculations.

But the best present of all will be high DR RAW, that could change everything for those of us who cannot always control light when we shoot, anything else is just icing on the cake.
 
Philip Lipetz said:
SSD prices have dropped drastically so RED could lower memory prices, and that is a huge help for us doc shooters who need to film hours to get a few minutes. I know a nature guy who films 17 hours to get one minute usuable. What if the surprise was lowered memory prices?
Click to expand...

I think thats what pre-roll buffer was designed for!
 
Pre-roll buffer aside, cheaper media that meets Scarlet's data write requirements (rather than Epic's) would be nice. Use the chips that did not quite meet Epic specs and put them in a scarlet anodized mag. But media prices are fair as they are, and yeah, should come down significantly over time.

HD-SDI out YES. Out of all the outlandish ideas I and others have posted, this down-to-earth request would give the biggest bang for the buck. Just squeeze in one more board and broaden Scarlet's immediate utility to include EFP shooters, who far outnumber the part of the indie crowd that is seriously looking at Scarlet. For my paid work, add a Teradeck cube and it's money.
 
Steve Wake said:
HD-SDI out YES. Out of all the outlandish ideas I and others have posted, this down-to-earth request would give the biggest bang for the buck. Just squeeze in one more board and broaden Scarlet's immediate utility to include EFP shooters, who far outnumber the part of the indie crowd that is seriously looking at Scarlet. For my paid work, add a Teradeck cube and it's money.
Click to expand...
Ironically, the original 3K-for-$3K Scarlet design had HD-SDI.
 
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