Everything changes... IMPORTANT post.

[Luis Caffesse]

Roughly what will the new prices be?

New pricing will be announced this Thursday, November 1st.
From the initial post:

That amount will be posted along with the new EPIC pricing. Nov. 1st is when it happens.

 

[Eric Santiago]

But my point was that as massive as that shift was, it was not fatal. And I don't think this one will be either. At the end of the day, they are just tools to unleash our inner creativity.

Agree, I like to think we are more versatile than ants

 

[Cid J Salcido Uyarra]

What time on Nov. 1st will the announcement drop? Afternoon Evening?

I'll be working with my Scarlet for that week so I'll have to drop in from set via Galaxy Nexus =)

def have something good to talk about on set that day

 

[Bryant Bell]

Jim can you confirm that the 30 days protection applies also to Scarlet purchases?

 

[Tim Whitcomb]

What time on Nov. 1st will the announcement drop? Afternoon Evening?

I'll be working with my Scarlet for that week so I'll have to drop in from set via Galaxy Nexus =)

def have something good to talk about on set that day

If you read back on the thread. They said Oct 31.

 

[Kemalettin Sert]

Jim can you confirm that the 30 days protection applies also to Scarlet purchases?

hope it does they ll offer extended warranty or money refund on accessories.

 

[Wil Wong]

It's nice to wake up and see others posting their opinion that this move is a good thing (whether or not the price change is an increment or not). The overall picture should be more important then the bottom line. This is why charities exist. Why newer ipad and cars cost the same as older models it replaced. It shouldn't be about how it affects 'me' but the benefit to 'US and everyone'. By the way, love the baby photos

 

[Cid J Salcido Uyarra]

If you read back on the thread. They said Oct 31.

in that case what time on the 31st?

red events tend to run pretty late in the day

 

[Lawrence Bansbach]

My expectations are that anyone who doesn't own an EPIC will after Nov. 1st.

Jim

You mean "anyone who doesn't own an EPIC will order after Nov. 1st." A significant price drop on your premier camera will probably send it and its accessories into backorder territory, even with the new and improved manufacturing speed and efficiencies. That's how popular the new price will be!

 

[Gavin Greenwalt]

Here is my concern as a Scarlet owner. We don't know how much or if Scarlet will be upgradable. Not knowing "if" makes me inclined to believe it's going to be the higher end of the spectrum if it's possible.

If a new Epic costs $20k + $5k aks + $6k = $31k Epic D
And my Scarlet cost $10k + $5k aks + $10k = $25k Scarlet D

That means I'm getting 10% of the speed (12 fps vs 120 fps) for 80% of the price of an Epic. That's a really crappy deal for a Scarlet owner. The Scarlets are what allowed Epic-X to not have to eat the cost of their defective boards. Scarlet buyers kept the price of the Epic down. We were getting 1/10th the framerate for 1/3rd the cost but it was the best option available. If in less than a year the Epic drops in price to Scarlet price ranges then the Scarlet is all around a bad purchase.

Compare the upgrade path of a Scarlet to the traditional model of Buy/Sell which RED scoffs at and you have a situation like this:

Buy for $15k
Sell for $10k a year + later. (66% resale a year later)
Buy new for $15k and get a new warranty.
---------------------------------------------------------
$20k to stay up to date.

Scarlet:
Buy for $15k
Buy upgrade for $10k
Buy Warranty for $1.5k
-------------------------------
$26.5k to stay up to date.


The upgrade business model is bad for customers if upgrades cost as much as the body and you end up with less features than just releasing a new product and keeping the resale market healthy. In the above scenario a Scarlet priced camera costs $6k more *because* you can upgrade instead of just buying a new "Scarlet 2".

The upgrade business model though makes perfect sense for Epic customers:

Buy for $34k
Sell for $22k (66% resale a year later)
Buy for $34k
------------------
$45k


Buy for $34k
Buy Upgrade for $6k
---------------------------
$40k

The upgrade business model actually saves Epic customers money instead of costing them money.

The problem though is with an incredibly cheap Epic potentially for sale Scarlet customer won't be able to get anywhere near the normal 12 month resale value for a camera. So they have no resale option with cheap Epics and the upgrade path doesn't make a lot of sense financially. They kind of bought a dead end product. Epic customers should be thrilled. Sure there will be cheap Epic cameras out there for dirt cheap, but you get A BRAND NEW EPIC for $6k. Scarlet customers get a brand new scarlet for up to $10k... and presumably still none of the epic features. While RED absolutely positively has to drop prices to stay competitive with the drive in the industry--they willingly chose the upgrade model for their cameras. And that choice could hurt Scarlet customers. That being said, I'll say the same thing I said when I bought my Scarlet. I trust RED to take care of their customers. To quote what I said almost exactly one year ago today:

When RED says "join us and you won't regret it, we'll take care of you" I believe them and I trust them, not out of devotion but from seeing it proven time and time again. I stuck with it knowing I was making a smart decision. Because Scarlet-X's most important spec isn't resolution or dynamic range it's RED having your back. So Thank You RED, and now you better not make a fool out of me and suddenly start screwing your customers haha.

 

[Eric Santiago]

You mean "anyone who doesn't own an EPIC will order after Nov. 1st." A significant price drop on your premier camera will probably send it and its accessories into backorder territory, even with the new and improved manufacturing speed and efficiencies. That's how popular the new price will be!

Thats why Im trying to put an order in for parts asap before the onslaught

 

[Dan Kanes]

Red Halloween Event at RSH? Sort of like Scarlet Day?

That would be pretty cool.

I'd make time to go.

 

[Zac C]

That would be a silly idea Dan, it's the announcement of a price drop, not the release of a product.

 

[Detlev Eller]

... there is no doubt, that at one specific moment in time, we'll se a 4k camera at "walmart" ... no question.

since "the guys" at wal mart and probably most other electronic stores around the mothership havn't any answer to 4k home theater screens and systems (as of october 2012) ... i would not see the the first part happen in the near future ... haha!

but, the trajectory for this to happen, was set when jj and gang put their brains on it, publically.
the questions are, how long will it take for everyone else to catch up.

One thing is clear to me, the one with the "root break through thinking" is and will stay in the lead, no matter what.
it is a genetic advantage.

the only exception is: another "RBTT event" occurring, somewhere ...
then, we would have true competition accellerating EVERYTHING. innovation is a mind set thing.

[... ]

 

[Rob Ruffo]

You know, the same sort of ground shift happened in the Post world about 10-12 years ago. We all had AVIDs, Flints, Flames, Fires, Henrys, Harrys, Harriets, etc. We had paid huge bucks for them, and cursed those companies for their strangle hold on us, but were able to bill our clients even more per hour so we didn't care! And then Apple bought FCP, tweaked it a little and released a software-only editing solution that ran on a G4 for $1000. Add After Effects and Photoshop to that machine and you could do all the same things as our "big iron" for 1/20th the cost...yes it took longer, yes it was missing some features, yes rendering was a huge pain...but the barriers to entry were gone. All of a sudden, every kid out of school with some of Mom & Dad's bucks could be an editor, motion graphics artist or animator.

Fast forward 10 years, and we are all benefiting from those events (and take them totally for granted). We edit R3Ds natively on our MacBook Pros, we have tons of cheap, fast storage options with superfast connectivity, we have great software tools that do amazing things, and...we are all still in business. No one company has a monopoly on our tools or our creativity (just ask Apple how that FCP X launch went). We are free to vote with our wallets for the companies and products that serve us best.

We adapted, we learned, we changed, we grew...and we will through this shift in the world of cameras too!

I am not sure all these advances have benefitted our craft. I got in just as this shift was ending. What I saw was people no longer able to specialize - and be true masters - at anything, except at the very top end of the business. So a director had to know how to edit, and color garde, and this and that. Inevitably the "master of none" turn of phrase comes to mind. Personally I miss going into somebody else's post house, someone who routes the SAN networks and so on so I don't have to deal with that instead of doing what I actually enjoy and am best at. Now only the top gigs we get afford that.

 

[Lee Saxon]

This thread took a strange turn, didn't it?

 

[Tom Greenberg]

Personally I miss going into somebody else's post house, someone who routes the SAN networks and so on so I don't have to deal with that instead of doing what I actually enjoy and am best at. Now only the top gigs we get afford that.

I miss it in some ways too, Rob...because I was one of those post house guys who had made the big equipment investments, and I made a return on my investment (and was able to pay my employees) in large part because of that specialization and the barriers to entry (cost & skills) for everyone else. But I believe that in the long run, it created a false sense of security, and when the ground shifted under our feet, it was only the most nimble of us (and those able to embrace generalization) who survived. I count myself among the survivors because I was forced to learn new things and develop new skills. And because no matter what computer/software/camera/etc. someone was able to buy, they couldn't replicate my experience, problem-solving abilities, and portfolio without paying their own dues, like I had already done. Based on your thoughtful posts, I think you are a survivor too...keep the faith...

 

[jake blackstone]

You know, the same sort of ground shift happened in the Post world about 10-12 years ago.

How about even more fundamental shift, that happened no more, than 2-3 years ago? BM bought DaVinci and color grading software, that used to cost over $150k became essentially free, overnight. Not 1/20th or 1/100th of a price, FREE! Now anyone has essentially the same tools, that were used for grading Avatar... free. Does that mean, that all of a sudden, the same high level of quality is coming out from those indy hobbyists? Of coarse not.
At the time, I was too unhappy with BM dropping the price of entry as much as the next guy, but thank god, talent still counts for something...
And when one door closes (less expensive color grading work, that now goes to guys willing to do it for next to nothing or free), another door opens. I'm talking about remote grading work. In the markets, that in the past had to settle for inferior quality or expensive "specialist" post houses, now the same company can hire someone like me, from anywhere in the world for much less. So Rob, if you look a little harder, you can get what you looking for- a reasonably priced specialist.
As they say, if life gives you lemons... You know the rest.
I love technology...

 

[Will Wernick]

How about even more fundamental shift, that happened no more, than 2-3 years ago? BM bought DaVinci and color grading software, that used to cost over $150k became essentially free, overnight. Not 1/20th or 1/100th of a price, FREE! Now anyone has essentially the same tools, that were used for grading Avatar... for free. Does that mean, that all of a sudden, the same level of quality is coming out from those indy hobbyists? Of coarse not.
At the time, I was too unhappy with BM dropping the price of entry as much as the next guy, but thank god, talent still counts for something...

Sounds like a lot of people would rather red raised prices to keep the barriers to entry high. In my professional experience the person operating the camera (or editing software, or coloring software, or any piece of equipment) is what is important, and makes the real money. Cameras will always get better and cheaper, but that doesn't mean the new buyers will know how to use them...

Epic is amazing. Scarlet is also amazing. Think about where we were only a few years ago. For 90% of what people do, even high end professionals, scarlet is more than enough to get the job done if the footage is finished correctly. And for most of the really high end stuff a $10K difference in the price of a camera wont make any difference.

Better, cheaper tools can only be a good thing long term.

 

[Rob Ruffo]

It seems to me that those who rent their Epics and Scarlets should be directing their displeasure at the real causes of their rental prices coming down. In my view, those causes will be the rash of 4k camera releases from other companies. I'm thinking that the majority who rent aren't suddenly going to buy an Epic because the price has come down. Many of them rent because it's one less thing to worry about after the shoot is done. And those who will purchase for the right price will just buy another brand if the Epic price doesn't come down.

In my estimation, the more people using RED cameras for whatever reason, the more buzz is created and the more in demand the RED products become. Maybe the rental rate comes down a bit, but also, maybe the camera stays rented more days. It's hard to predict the future but this is just one possible outcome.

Epic is in its own category, up there with Alexa and F65. Our clients chose between these 3 options only (and sometimes but increasingly rarely film), because our clients just want "the best". Alexa and F65 will not see drastic price cuts. There is a place for the truly high end, perceptually as well as in technical reality. If the Epic becomes too cheap it will actually be HARDER to sell on our jobs - because that's just how our world works. Those who say that's not true do not work in the ad, feature and label music video world. For fashion that is true to an extreme extent. Inevitably someone will say "It shouldn't be that way". Right. Good luck with changing how your clients think as a community.

It's not just them. It's the rental houses. They like money. They will push the higher rental quote. They will push what you are unlikely to be able to buy for yourself on a whim - they don't want too many people to no longer need them. That's fair enough. They are businesses and they can't pay their employees with anything other than money. In many markets rental houses are camera/lens only (or mainly so), and others rent grip and lights. People listen to what the camera shops have to say. It sticks in producers minds. If Epic goes too low, I predict lots of "When you shoot Epic you need at least 2 back-up bodies" style FUD stories to start hitting the rumor mill. A story from "So and so at Pro Camera Inc. I've been dealing with for 10 years" does stick in a producer's mind. Many regard these camera rental shops as experts. And again, on high end sets, spending an extra $500 a day is nothing if they feel it ensures the safety of the production

There are indeed different camps here. Tom Lowe does great work but works alone in the forest/desert, and calls me a whiner. I would prefer saying I am offering constructive criticism. I would not survive one day in Tom Lowes world (picture buzzards in the desert) , but I would venture he would not last very long in mine either (quick Tom, what kind of lighting instruments best shows off lip gloss texture?). It's important that Red hear from all of us. If I were Jim, I would want as much data as possible about the various people using my products before making a decision about anything. He is very smart. I'm sure he wants that. Mindless "Yeah awesome" if you don't, in fact, think something is awesome and have not thought it through is not useful as feedback. I am offering my personal reaction with honesty and respect.