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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Epic a Phantom Killer?

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Jannard said:
Stephen... this is not a bet between Tom and you. This is between you and me. I have given a timeframe for a bet. Over 50% of the US movies starting shooting after Jan 1st, 2011 being shot 90% digital with budgets over $30M and David Mullen is the judge. I'll take whatever amount you say.

What is your bet?

I'll still strongly caution you that you will be better off to take whatever amount you are thinking and donate it to charity. If you do that, I'll match the amount you give to the same charity.

Jim
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Hi Jim,

Clearly it will happen one day, Oil will also dry up. Shooting must be completed by 31st December 2010, not starting 1st January. What I am saying is it won't happen before 31st December 2010, thats all.

I am happy with a $500 bet to a charity of your choice, if you win, the choice of mine if you loose.

As for film completly dying from existance, bearing in mind people can make their own film it won't happen in our life times.

Stephen
 
Stephen,

My bet is shooting starts after Jan 1st, 2011. Certainly you can do better if this if it is going to charity. How about $10K? What charity are you thinking of? I typically wouldn't do a bet less than $10M, but for you I would make an exception.

Jim
 
Jannard said:
Stephen,

My bet is shooting starts after Jan 1st, 2011. Certainly you can do better if this is going to charity. How about $10K? What charity are you thinking of?

Jim
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Jim,

I won't take your bet, been hammered by the stock market recently.

www.arkschools.org
The no 1 priority for admissions is "children who are in public care "

Stephen

Edit
http://www.arkonline.org/?p=63
ARK is an international charity, whose purpose is to transform children’s lives

ARK’s Board of Trustees and Patrons ensure that all central administrative costs are covered so that 100% of all donations go directly to deliver its programmes for children. So when you donate to ARK you are really helping to transform children’s lives.
 
I understand... then just tell us what your belief is. No bet. I'll donate to the charity anyway.

Jim
 
Well, Jim - I ain't gonna bet against you.
I'm sorta betting my business on that in Norway most productions will be fully digital from end to end in 2010, much due to RED.

I have no spare cash to bet against others, but I put all I have into that bet... :)
 
this is getting good, does anyone have an historic perspective on this?

At what point did digital surpass film for stills as the defacto format?

I cannot believe anyone would doubt the changeover will happen, but when is a
big question.

CD's were introduced in the 80's and took a while to replace vinyl as the majority of sales, and digital still photography replaced film even faster so the rate of change is constantly accelerating.

in 2 and a half years if digital replaces film, it would be the fastes format change to date. I don't think it will happen that fast but it will happen.
 
What's the bet that despite a switch to digital projection, with all the cost savings and ease that brings to the film distribution business, it will still be a massive pain in the arse to get ones film distributed...?

My money is on the "still a massive pain in the arse" if you hadn't already figured it out.

JohnF
 
Jannard said:
I understand... then just tell us what your belief is. No bet. I'll donate to the charity anyway.

Jim
Click to expand...

Hi Jim,

I would have thought the medium term 5-15 years, it may fluctuate for a couple of years as digital is 'trendy'. I don't believe that film will completly die, like vinal records, there will always be a small specialist market.

Thank you in advance for any donation you make.

Best,

Stephen
 
WOW, can’t believe how much fun I just had reading this thread. Anyone who can get and hold the attention of a Billionaire for that long and get them to donate to the charity of your choice.... Wow. Ever since I first read about the RED I knew it would be the choice of filmmakers (that will be an archaic term soon! We are storytellers, or will it be digital storytellers? This is another thread!) And after having the chance to shake Jim's hand at NAB'08 and hearing him talk - My money is on him and RDC. IMHO
btw - my charity of choice is Worthmore Academy (Where every child is worth-more) in Indianapolis. An alternative school for autistic and learning disabled children. :biggrin:
 
This thread is hilarious :)
 
Hi Stephen,

Stephen Williams said:
Hi Jim,
I would have thought the medium term 5-15 years
Click to expand...
15 years? That is much to slow. By then every canon, casio, sony and nikon will record way more than 4K with way more than 60P for $$$.

In the 35mm camera space, the majority of cameras sold is digital since 2007, since 2008 the delivery of 35mm cameras is mainly digital.

For new 35mm camera sales, mechanical cameras will probably have less than 25% already this year.

Stephen Williams said:
, it may fluctuate for a couple of years as digital is 'trendy'. I don't believe that film will completly die, like vinal records, there will always be a small specialist market.
Click to expand...
Digital is not only trendy. Its reducing mechanics to the niche when its better/similar and faster&more ergonomic&cheaper&allows more creativity.

no matter if
multitrack tape->harddisc recorder
analogue console->DAW system
editing table->NLE system
optical copier->Compositing system
chemical lab->DI
typewriter->word processor
abacus->spreadsheet
mechanical camera->DSLR
vinly->CD
super 8/vhs->VHS/blu ray

etc.
 
Anyone care to make their bet donation to the Mitch Gross Tahitian Vacation Fund?

This was an entertaining thread; Stephen really got Jims attention. I don' think there is another thread on reduser with as high a percentage of Jannard posts.

I think the timeline of 2011 may be a little bit premature, but really just a little bit.
 
Jannard said:
Stephen,

My bet is shooting starts after Jan 1st, 2011. Certainly you can do better if this if it is going to charity. How about $10K? What charity are you thinking of? I typically wouldn't do a bet less than $10M, but for you I would make an exception.

Jim
Click to expand...

Jim be careful... Someone can bet $100M, take $50M out of it and pay to all those productions costs associated with renting film cameras and buying, processing and scanning the film to make sure You lose. Even if they donate the left-overs out of the $50M (which would be a lot) to those productions as an additional motivation - they will still pocket $50M themselves...

:greedy:
 
Peter Majtan said:
Jim be careful... Someone can bet $100M, take $50M out of it and pay to all those productions costs associated with renting film cameras and buying, processing and scanning the film to make sure You lose. Even if they donate the left-overs out of the $50M (which would be a lot) to those productions as an additional motivation - they will still pocket $50M themselves...

:greedy:
Click to expand...

1st off... no one has the balls to do it. 2nd off- I would take ALL $100M and "encourage" a rapid transition.

The donation has been made. All I ask is that Tom's $100 bet is not disrespected. He stepped up.

Jim
 
gunleik said:
All cinemas in Norway are 2k end of next year. Here Digital is definitely now...
Click to expand...

The USA is predicted to have the majority of cinemas digital 2011/12.

Austria biggest chain converts completly until 2009, Germany however is, so far, *very* slow.

IMAX wants to convert all cinemas in less than 36 months, however i dont think that they can convince all their franchise cinemas, even by stopping largeformat film production completly.

the digital cinema rollout, now in its 3hrd year, is at an average speed of 400-500 screens converted a month worldwide.

Important to know and to understand is: Film which isnt postprocessed mechanical/chemical but by DI must be projected digitally to show its full quality. A Film copy of an DI is always worse than the digital original - by design.
 
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