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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Epic a Phantom Killer?

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Plasmatic said:
I wasn't proposing to bet with anyone.
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BTW... I wasn't responding to you specifically but to all that considered betting against digital (and RED).

Jim
 
Jannard said:
BTW... I wasn't responding to you specifically but to all that considered betting against digital (and RED).

Jim
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I understand.
The whole thing is pretty pointless anyway. It just opens up too many cans of worms.
What exactly is "Digital"?
What exactly constitutes a "film"?
Who cares? It's not like it's going to change anything.
 
Last point... this bet isn't about digital overtaking film as the medium of choice. It is about WHEN it will happen. As long as everyone is clear.

There have been no new still film cameras in development for years. Canon and Nikon still have inventory of some film cameras and list them for sale. They would LOVE to sell their inventory, but they have no film cameras in development and will not have film cameras in development in the future.

From my personal research, there are no new film cameras in development in the cine industry, including Arri. None. If you want a collector's item, buy a new film camera and never take it out of the box.

In contrast, there are plenty of digital cameras in development. Still and cine. From many companies. Several companies, including RED, are planning on combining the two spaces in one camera.

Kodak has discontinued ALL film camera production. Kodak.

Distribution is converting from film projection to digital... not the other way around.

Film, processing and transfer will get more expensive as the demand and competition decreases, accelerating the change to digital.

Digital acquisition is cleaner. It is easier (more every day) and much more versatile. You can shoot several formats with one camera. You can check your footage immediately for problems... not wait for the next day. Film's only main advantage, exposure latitude, is shrinking every year. New sensor development will make this a non-issue within two years time.

The hand-writing is on the wall, whether you like it or not. So all that is left is to bet on the date that "it happens". Make your bet. But know that if you "win", you made a good decision on "when"... not "if".

I remember not too long ago a debate with several top still photographers about the demise of film. They were adamant that the end would never come. Never. Now, all they are worried about is whether or not they will ever be able to dump their film still cameras. They all now own a Canon 1Ds MKIII or Nikon D3.

Bet what you want... but the message is clear. Film, silver processing, and transfer's days are numbered. If you want to bet the date that happens... be my guest.

Jim
 
Stephen Williams said:
Hi Jim,

Ever heard of Aaton? http://www.aaton.com/products/film/penelope/index.php

Stephen
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Sure... I said new in development. Penelope has been in development for some time. It is not new.

What is your bet? $200? For 2011? For 2012? Are you betting against digital replacing film altogether? Take a stand. What exactly are you saying? Questions don't take a position. Let's hear one.

You are quick to respond but with no substance. I have taken a position. What's yours?

Jim
 
Jannard said:
I don't quite get the bet...

Is it:

51% of all major motion pictures, with a budget of over $30M or $50M? that start after Jan 1st, 2011 will be shot primarily on digital? Does that mean 100% digital with no pick up shots on film? Or less than 5% on film? Or 10%? Does it mean shot on film and digital does not count at all? Or it does count and against the digital percentage? Is this US or worldwide? Or US productions shot anywhere in the world?

If... you are saying that 51% of all major motion pictures from US studios shot anywhere in the world with a budget over $30M and begin shooting after January 1st, 2011 need to be 90+% digital (any brand)... what are the stakes? That assumes David Mullen is the judge. And I'm not interested in a small bet. I'm already betting RED development money that this will be the case.

Jim
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Hi Jim

51% of US Studio Features (There are 6 Studios) over 50 Million (Major Feature) In the CINEMA during the first half of 2011. The film has to be produced by the studio not a subsiduary, & not purchased. We are talking 100% film not 90% (Film Slayer). No film whatsoever allowed.

Originally Tom said shot by the end of 2010, we felt that was too difficult to prove so we said in the cinema the first half of 2011.

Stephen
 
Stephen Williams said:
Hi Jim

51% of US Studio Features (There are 6 Studios) over 50 Million (Major Feature) In the CINEMA during the first half of 2011. The film has to be produced by the studio not a subsiduary, & not purchased. We are talking 100% film not 90% (Film Slayer). No film whatsoever allowed.

Originally Tom said shot by the end of 2010, we felt that was too difficult to prove so we said in the cinema the first half of 2011.

Stephen
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So what is your bet? And are you betting on a moment of time or the fact that film will not be replaced by digital ever? What is your position?

Jim
 
Jannard said:
Sure... I said new in development. Penelope has been in development for some time. It is not new.

What is your bet? $200? For 2011? For 2012? Are you betting against digital replacing film altogether? Take a stand. What exactly are you saying? Questions don't take a position. Let's hear one.

Jim
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Hi Jim,

Film cameras take rather a long time to develope, to say Penelope is not new is an interesting point of view.

My bet would be for shooting completed by 31 December 2010, $200 is fine by me.

Stephen
 
If you really want to get my attention, bet something significant. $200 hardly helps me accelerate the program. Are you one of the ones that feels the need to show some sort of lingering disdain by betting against a timetable as a last ditch... "see, we told you that you couldn't do that". ?

Do you believe that film will outlast digital? Or are you just betting a small amount on the timeframe?

If you really want to bet something... step up. You chided Tom for a paltry amount ($100)... but now say $200? My reference to $200 was a joke. Not much of a bet. And you seemed to ignore my terms.

Jim
 
Penelope was announced in 2005. The RED ONE was announced (obviously as a joke in 2006). This is hardly a "new" camera development. We'll see if it actually is released. I have to wonder if Aaton would consider another film camera development from this time forward. Actually, I have have heard rumors of it turning into a digital camera.

This is your time to make a statement. Do you believe film will be a part of our future? Do you believe that camera companies will invest in film cameras going forward? What do you believe? I have been very clear what I believe...and what I would bet on. Give me a reason to bet...

Jim
 
2011 seems like a reasonably likely change-over point. Although personally I'd bet over 50% of studio films will shoot at least partly on film into 2012.

If Stephen can manage to keep Jim up late at night answering these threads instead of getting enough sleep we may have to wait until 2013 :(

Bruce Allen
www.boacinema.com
 
So Stephen... would you make the same bet if the timeframe was 2012? Are you betting on the concept that digital will not replace film or on the timeframe? Since the amount has no interest to me... I guess we are really down to what you believe. Tell us. I have been very clear on my position. We are all anxious for your opinion.

Jim
 
Jannard said:
If you really want to bet something... step up. You chided Tom for a paltry amount ($100)... but now say $200? My reference to $200 was a joke. Not much of a bet. And you seemed to ignore my terms.

Jim
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Jim,

First some facts!
I offered Tom $500, he only originally wanted to bet $20, that was increased to $50. He has the same bet with Max.

You suggested $200, I am not interested in your terms, thats why I ignored them.

Stephen
 
Stephen Williams said:
Jim,

First some facts!
I offered Tom $500, he only originally wanted to bet $20, that was increased to $50. He has the same bet with Max.

You suggested $200, I am not interested in your terms, thats why I ignored them.

Stephen
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So tell me... my terms are not acceptable. Is that because you think by 2011 digital will have replaced film as the "norm"? You will only bet a paltry $500 because of the timeframe? Would you make the same bet with my terms?

Really what this comes down to is when you think digital will overtake film. When do you think that will happen?

Jim
 
Jannard said:
So Stephen... would you make the same bet if the timeframe was 2012? Are you betting on the concept that digital will not replace film or on the timeframe? Since the amount has no interest to me... I guess we are really down to what you believe. Tell us. I have been very clear on my position. We are all anxious for your opinion.

Jim
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Hi Jim,

No, I am not interested in changing the time frame. I only challenged the bet as I wanted to see how much Tom beleived what he was saying. I don't have an opinion based on technology I have not yet seen. You have an advantage. Let me come and test the 2 new chips you have in developemnet (under NDA) and then I may have an opinion for 2012.

Stephen
 
Jannard said:
Penelope was announced in 2005. The RED ONE was announced (obviously as a joke in 2006). This is hardly a "new" camera development. We'll see if it actually is released. I have to wonder if Aaton would consider another film camera development from this time forward. Actually, I have have heard rumors of it turning into a digital camera.

Jim
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At NAB the nice man from Aaton told me they are developing a digital back for the camera. In fact, they were not showing it because they have not been happy with the sensor they have been testing. He said that would change soon (that's what he said anyway). They have also just announced a high speed film recorder (to print those digital frames?).

bob
 
Jannard said:
So tell me... my terms are not acceptable. Is that because you think by 2011 digital will have replaced film as the "norm"? You will only bet a paltry $500 because of the timeframe? Would you make the same bet with my terms?

Really what this comes down to is when you think digital will overtake film. When do you think that will happen?

Jim
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Hi Jim,

Digital replaced Film as the "norm" for News, TV, & Low budget productions more than 10 years ago. I have no interested in "norm" or "maintaining the status quo".

Digital will replace Film & the highest level when digital cameras outperform film. Digital Still cameras outperformed reversal film with DR, thats why the move happened so quickly.

Stephen
 
Stephen Williams said:
Hi Jim,

No, I am not interested in changing the time frame. I only challenged the bet as I wanted to see how much Tom beleived what he was saying. I don't have an opinion based on technology I have not yet seen. You have an advantage. Let me come and test the 2 new chips you have in developemnet (under NDA) and then I may have an opinion for 2012.

Stephen
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I guess the real question is whether or not you believe that digital will, at some point, replace film. I have gone on record... very clearly... saying that it will. If you believe (or not) that it will, the the only question is "when".

If the bet is "when" and not "if", it would be good for our readers to know your position.

Do you believe that digital will replace film? If so, when? I have given my answer and you probably can't afford my bet. I am spending my money to make sure it happens...

Jim
 
Stephen... this is not a bet between Tom and you. This is between you and me. I have given a timeframe for a bet. Over 50% of the US movies starting shooting after Jan 1st, 2011 being shot 90% digital with budgets over $30M and David Mullen is the judge. I'll take whatever amount you say.

What is your bet?

I'll still strongly caution you that you will be better off to take whatever amount you are thinking and donate it to charity. If you do that, I'll match the amount you give to the same charity.

Jim
 
It is now 2:50am PST. I need to go to sleep. I'll be anxious for a response when I wake up.

Jim
 
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