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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Dragon Upgrade Predictions for Scarlet-X

I get the optimism but I don't understand the logic.

I paid $9750 dollars for my Scarlet brain and a $9000 fee would still make my outlay $10000 short of the cost of a current EPIC, so I really don't think that RED will be able to deliver 6k sensor for that money. I think the $6k price to EPIC users is another way to look after the early adopters and that's fine by me. After all they made it possible for me to own a Scarlet. I think Scarlet users are a different category, we are larger in number and add a lot to the software development, but the cost of a Scarlet is so amazingly low for what it does that I'd be happy to pay $6k for 'half way'. If $6k made my Scarlet into the current EPIC specs, I'd be totally delighted. Coz that's a serious bargain over the store price today.
 
Right now I'm more interested not in "how much" or "what's better" but in "when".

According to Jarred's latest posts first ones in line for Dragon are Epic-M owners, then Epic-X owners, and only then Scarlet owners.

Considering the number of Epics in the wild, assuming that pretty much anyone who owns one will want to upgrade their camera and taking into account that upgrade is a time consuming process (owners will have to send their camera in, wait for it to be upgraded, then get it back, just remember Stage 3.5), it may be well over a year before Scarlet owners could even get their hands on a single Dragon chip.

But I certainly hope that RED will again make miracles, create something like a temporary "Upgrade department" and breed Dragons like they are Targaryens :)
 
it's probably gonna take several months to get through all the upgrades plus they're main concern is probably gonna be Epic, Scarlet RND could be behind or along side Epic so you may have a buffer.

From the looks of the November turn out it seems like they didn't have over 500 Scarlets ready for launch, preparing for an "Upgrade Department" seems about right if your gonna overhaul all the cameras you sold while still making new cameras. Another factor to consider

tricky to guess but it could be forever with the luck we've had so far. camera manufacturing isn't easy ask black magic

$6K for 6K has a catchy sound to it would be dope if it stuck for Scarlet but highly unlikely

I'm seriously all for waiting for the technology to be somewhat older but more affordable.

If Scarlet were to be released a year or two later but offered $4k for 4k I think it could have benefited more for everyone but that's wishful thinking

hopefully if Ted is at IBC this year he can drop some hints to the direction they're moving and updates for Epic Dragon.

you guys maybe right the upgrade is gonna cost...ouch
 
For those who are guessing or even welcoming a $10K Dragon upgrade for Scarlet, that would be disastrous...unless, it was accompanied by a kick-ass incentive. More on that later.

RED started a revolution on the high end that changed the industry. With just the announcement of the Scarlet, RED inspired a digital cinema revolution on the low end. A revolution, it seems, they will probably never substantially take part in.

The decision to use below spec Epic boards for Scarlet enabled it to squeak in under $10K. We all know the basic working configuration of Scarlet is closer to $15K. That's enough to put it out of reach for many, if not most of the people that were salivating over the idea of a 3K for $3K camera.

That move got us in the RED camp and saved us money on the front end but is unfortunately going to cost that much more to bring it up to snuff moving forward.

Upgrades for higher end gear are almost always more expensive than they are for the lower end. This is what the world has come to expect. Scarlet's pedigree puts RED and Scarlet owners in an odd position because the opposite is true in this case.

A $6K Dragon upgrade for Epic is both perceived to be and actually is an incredible value and makes Epic a sound investment. But, given RED's desire to put the same advanced sensor in Scarlet, their motto of "Obsolescence Obsolete" is harder to reasonably achieve on the low (sub $10K) end.



Some of you argue that, since a working Scarlet package is around $15K, a $10K upgrade is easier to justify. But, that number doesn't align with RED's position. They've always maintained Scarlet is a 5K stills and 4K motion camera for under $10K. It would be very hypocritical of them to change their tune and claim the "price of a working Scarlet package" defense in order to make the case for a $10K upgrade.

What we're left with, at $10K for a Dragonized Scarlet, is a camera model that doubles in price in just in one generation (a new Scarlet with a Dragon already in it would have to cost $20K). That's unprecedented and pretty much negates RED's criticism of its competitors' practice of obsoleting a camera and forcing you to buy a new, improved one for roughly the same price. For upgrading Scarlet owners, as far as their wallets are concerned, there's no difference between the two approaches. For prospective new buyers, it's an even worse scenario.

People aren't used to paying over 50% of the purchase price for an upgrade.

"Why buy a whole new camera when you can upgrade the one you have for the original purchase price?" is not what people signed up for when they bought a Scarlet. It also eliminates the ability to at least sell the old camera to help offset the cost of the upgrade.

If this were to happen, a lot of people would be pissed, Scarlet would seem like a poor investment, Red would look like they're out of their minds and Scarlet owners would look like suckers. It would appear to be the ol' bait and switch.



I think the perception for many Scarlet buyers is they paid a premium, in no small part, for the ability to upgrade their cameras when the time came. In reality, Scarlet has no true competitor that's as feature laden at even twice the price.

However, when viewed alongside other, not as advanced but still very capable cameras, Scarlet's price FEELS like a premium.

All people have to do is point to the abundance of poorly shot and graded Scarlet footage out there (sorry, but it's true) that makes the camera look like it has no more than 10 stops of dynamic range and questionable color rendition. They come to the conclusion they can buy a camera that only has 10 stops of DR to begin with, the saturated colors they want right out of the box, enough resolution to satisfy HD broadcast standards and internet viewership and much less stringent hardware and software requirements for a fraction of the price of a Scarlet.

The perception is they can get 80% or more of what Scarlet offers for 1/3 the price or less. And perception, for many, is reality.



In the end, after a $10K jump in price I believe people will endeavor to show RED just how "good enough" they think HD resolution really is. That is, unless RED offers the aforementioned kick-ass incentives like:

1) Pay $10K for the upgrade and get $2K worth of store credit at red.com. This way, they can spread out costs over their entire line where some products may have larger margins than the Dragonized Scarlet has.

2) Pay $10K for the Dragon upgrade but get 50% off the next sensor upgrade. Assuming RED puts in boards that support a more demanding sensor and specs this time around, the next go round will be easier and those who made the plunge on Dragon will be rewarded.

These are the only two I can think of at the moment.


As for a new $20K Dragonized Scarlet:

1) It won't cause as much of a stir if RED continues to sell the Scarlet MX at the current price. If Scarlet MX goes away, then...

2) Worst case scenario (provided they offer the incentives), RED takes some flak but it will merely put them back where they started with the RED ONE as far as pricing goes. It also means RED won't have a sub-$10K camera for a quite some time.


To be clear, my very long ramblings (Sorry!) were only in response to guesses and speculation others have put forth. We have no idea what RED is actually planning.
 
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I think there's a market for a camera that falls between the Epic Dragon and Scarlet both in performance and price. There's going to be a huge gap between the price and performance of the two cameras and the RED ONE is no longer going to be filling that niche very nicely.

Brian Boyer said:
If Scarlet MX goes away, then...
Click to expand...

I don't think the Scarlet is going away anytime soon.

Brian Boyer said:
The perception is they can get 80% or more of what Scarlet offers for 1/3 the price or less. And perception, for many, is reality.
Click to expand...

The last 10% is the most important, it takes the most skill, it's the most time consuming, it's the most expensive and it pays off the most.
 
Bob Gundu said:
Of course this is just my opinion, but when has RED not provided a fair upgrade? In the meantime, enjoy your killer gear :)
Click to expand...

You're absolutely right. RED, given their track record, will probably offer a killer deal.

As fair as the offer may be, I think the concerns that others expressed in this thread are more about them not being able to afford it.

The current price for the Scarlet is a steal for what you get and many people know it. But a $10K brain + $?K worth of accessories is simply out of many people's price range.

Hell, it was out of my price range. I bought it anyway.


Terry VerHaar said:
I think this is the best analysis of the situation. :smiley:
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Which is why it took me almost 5 months to even open this thread. I know a lot of people like to play the guessing game but it seems to always lead to people getting worked up over pure speculation.
 
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In this industry, a 10K camera is considered ridiculously affordable. I know many will argue that statement as for them a 10K investment can be a fortune. But, one should only purchase something if they get something in return. These are tools and tools are meant to be used. Since the time of when the scarlet emerged, I'm pretty sure many professionals have already made they're investment back and then some. For those that bought it as a hobby, it's quickly becomes a very expensive one that makes it hard to justify upgrading. I see many scarlet for sale now, and wonder how many bought these because of there dreams of becoming filmmakers overnight... to wake up to the reality that it takes more than owning some gear? I'm not sure what the point of my reply was... LOL... I'm just happy that RED exists, and they make some seriously cool shit. Now back to work so I can make some money.
 
I'm gonna jump in here with my predictions.

I think the MX chip will contuninue in the Scarlet x at it's current price. RED benefits from having a sub 10k brain and the MX chip is awesome.

A new Scarlet D arrives with the Dragon chip for $15k for the brain only with 5k 60fps so we can finally use hdrx at speed.

There will not be an upgrade option, only a trade in program for current Scarlet X owners getting full credit toward a new Scarlet D. Then a slug of battle tested Scarlet X's will show up at an even lower price to kill the sales of the new Canon and Sony 1080 cams and possible 4kcameras of the near future.

That's my guess.

Who knows.
 
Troy Bakewell said:
I'm gonna jump in here with my predictions.

I think the MX chip will contuninue in the Scarlet x at it's current price. RED benefits from having a sub 10k brain and the MX chip is awesome.

A new Scarlet D arrives with the Dragon chip for $15k for the brain only with 5k 60fps so we can finally use hdrx at speed.

There will not be an upgrade option, only a trade in program for current Scarlet X owners getting full credit toward a new Scarlet D. Then a slug of battle tested Scarlet X's will show up at an even lower price to kill the sales of the new Canon and Sony 1080 cams and possible 4kcameras of the near future.

That's my guess.

Who knows.
Click to expand...

I'm ok with this.
 
Bob you're so right.

However everyone needs to chase dreams some are viable some are not so viable. I too wonder about the Scarlets being sold (btw more epics than scarlets ) Ownership of a tool doesn't confer mastery of the craft or business acumen. It is after all just a dumb tool. Its the brain behind the brain that drives it . Having said that economically its tough times out there.... those who are forced into selling their dream I despair........ whilst I cheer for those who have paid for the camera with a project & now wrapping the job & moving on....lucky bastards.

So where does that leave the Dragon upgrade. I 've posted my comments earlier on this thread . But from a business point of view as long as I get 2 years out of Scarlet MX I'm giggling, as we say in Oz. I suspect many are in the same boat. Personally I'm sceptical about upgrades because tech. is moving so fast. Not that I don't believe in RED R & D but I'm always aware of history being blindsided by innovation & it will happen again & again & again. My favourite quote from Miko Kahu futurist "in 10 years time tech will be 1 billion times more powerful than it is today"

So, if I have to pay another 10K or so in a year & a bit ( without having to revisit the whole planet system of red modular accessories ) I'm in front, yes we can buy into another system but frankly after seeing what others have been delivering it sort a leaves me cold. As well buying into another system brings substantial "tooling up" costs so buy a cheaper camera & you'll be up around 12k before you know it with accessories etc.. But hey I'm realist nothing last forever....including Alexa ; )

So the question IMO for everyone, ........One way or another late 2013 or early 14, you will be spending at least 10K on a professional camera to stay current, so which camera system will it be ?
 
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Troy Bakewell said:
I'm gonna jump in here with my predictions.

I think the MX chip will contuninue in the Scarlet x at it's current price. RED benefits from having a sub 10k brain and the MX chip is awesome.

A new Scarlet D arrives with the Dragon chip for $15k for the brain only with 5k 60fps so we can finally use hdrx at speed.

There will not be an upgrade option, only a trade in program for current Scarlet X owners getting full credit toward a new Scarlet D. Then a slug of battle tested Scarlet X's will show up at an even lower price to kill the sales of the new Canon and Sony 1080 cams and possible 4kcameras of the near future.

That's my guess.

Who knows.
Click to expand...

Interesting idea; simple, straightforward and very attractive. :thumbsup:
 
Troy Bakewell said:
I'm gonna jump in here with my predictions.

I think the MX chip will contuninue in the Scarlet x at it's current price. RED benefits from having a sub 10k brain and the MX chip is awesome.

A new Scarlet D arrives with the Dragon chip for $15k for the brain only with 5k 60fps so we can finally use hdrx at speed.

There will not be an upgrade option, only a trade in program for current Scarlet X owners getting full credit toward a new Scarlet D. Then a slug of battle tested Scarlet X's will show up at an even lower price to kill the sales of the new Canon and Sony 1080 cams and possible 4kcameras of the near future.

That's my guess.

Who knows.
Click to expand...

So a new Scarlet with a Dragon Chip will only be 2800 for all that new hardware, R&D, Sensor? I dunno if I can go with you here.

Interesting idea, slightly surprising if this happens.
 
My math skills might be off, but since when is $15,000 - 9,700 = $2800? :huh: What have I missed?
 
Terry VerHaar said:
My math skills might be off, but since when is $15,000 - 9,700 = $2800? :huh: What have I missed?
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If my math is what you took away from that then... Well, I won't retort simply state that 13200 + shipping & Tax for a similar setup.
 
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