Value of a "dead end" Red One?

[Eirik Tyrihjel]

Question: does it make any difference whatsoever if I have an MX right now and put a Birger on it? I understand that there is a 90-day warranty on the sensor upgrade itself. But aside from that, is there anything stopping me from putting a Birger on my camera if we plan to go Stage 2 and sell the MX immediately?

I assume you are thinking about the warranty/upgrade issues with the Birger mount, and I am pretty sure RED will not ask us to send in our cameras for inspection before going stage 2 or 3. (That will be very costly and ineffecient)

BTW, I believe that everyone who currently has a Red One should MX it before selling it. Red M aint gonna be of much use for much longer, IMO.

The MX upgrade is 4500$ + one way shipping (provided you get the Epic), I think it would make sense, but if you put a price on the hassle - the time it takes + handling + any delay and it might not add up.

BUT: If you will keep your R1mx like I will, and you use it, it´s a no brainer.

My MX´ed #476, will be in my service for the next 6-10 years. It will be rented, act as B-camera, as primary camera if our Epic is out and as an additional camera on our live gigs. If I calculate even the most modest budget per year for it, it will bring in a LOT more than I will get if I sell it, so for me it´s a no-brainer.

We will get the Epic stage 2, but even the Scarlet can´t threaten my budgets as we work directly for our own costumers, and they get MX quality!

As far as 3D work goes, I personally believe it will continue to be very limited in usage for a long long time, exciting as it is.

 

[Scott Crawley]

I guess I can understand that someone might make that decision, but I tend to believe that "market" value on a Red One, even without the Epic upgrade option, is higher than that.

You seem to be overlooking supply and demand; If enough of your peers are willing to sell at $9000 to fill the demand, then your math means nothing.

With superior competition on the horizon, I wouldn't personally expect the demand for an executed R1 to be greater than the supply. There are over 7000 potential competitors for your buyer, right? That is just my instinct. Good luck.

 

[Tom Lowe]

I assume you are thinking about the warranty/upgrade issues with the Birger mount, and I am pretty sure RED will not ask us to send in our cameras for inspection before going stage 2 or 3. (That will be very costly and ineffecient)

Why would it even matter, though? We will own the MX camera outright, and it will have no trade-in or mark-off value of any kind. After the 90-day sensor warranty, does Red even care? Is it a matter that they might not service it if it's had a Birger on it?

 

[Graeme Hay]

I don't know a lot about the used pricing on the RED One, but from my perspective (as a starting independent filmmaker) I can see going for a brand-new scarlet over a used Red One.

There are choices and specs one needs to make their personal decision, but the fixed lens scarlet comes with everything you need to shot, where as a used RED One needs a lot of expensive accessories to make it work. Once you add up the cost even a used Red One at $10K will likely cost you in reality $15-20K for everything. Where as a Scarlet will be around $5-7k all in (you could add addition things to both).

3K vs 4K for 3-4 times the price?

Yeah I think the choice is clear on that one for us Indies with limited budget... just look at what the HDSLR are doing right now; its what I'm using and I know other local producers/directors are looking into.

 

[Aaron Newsome]

I'd be willing to pay $9,000 for an R1 body. Problem is, by the time anyone would actually sell their body for $9k, I won't be interested anymore.

 

[Scott Crawley]

Why would anyone pay more than $4500 for an executed R1MX? At that price the R1MX is competitive with the Scarlet, and the seller still breaks even. At $9000 you have the opportunity to enjoy your R1 for a few years and make a $4500 profit. That is very fortunate when you consider what a Viper is apparently worth now.

Mr. Jannard has taken good care of you all, and that is why I'll buy my first Red with confidence, and I'll most likely buy new.

 

[Jeff Coatney]

The Red One still makes beautiful 4K images. The Scarlet, will be a fantastic camera when it comes out, but it's still just 3K by comparison. Anyone looking to get a 4K 35mm camera system that can out-perform most of the cameras in the market, especially when it's MX'd-- might be able to cut a great deal in the next few days. The value Red places on the camera is a very different metric than someone who wants to own a state of the art 4K 35mm camera that has a sensor that matches most of the capabilities of the yet to be released Epic.

 

[Scott Crawley]

The Red One still makes beautiful 4K images. The Scarlet, will be a fantastic camera when it comes out, but it's still just 3K by comparison.

Are you not considering the S35 Scarlet, or have the specs on that changed? An upgraded R1 will still be a fine and useful machine, but unless my memory is faulty or specs change the only advantage over Scarlet S35 will be overcranking. It will be interesting to see how much of a premium that feature commands.

 

[Andrew Thomas]

After talking to a lot of people, there are quite a few people out there looking to get rid of the R1-M for ~9k.

 

[Peter Karlsson]

I would sell my R1-M for 9K... I don't see any reason why I wouldn't? I was planning to plunge into Stage-3, but in the end, for the same amount of money I would get my Epic sooner with Stage-2. I would even sell my LCD etc. very cheap since I get a bigger LCD with Epic stage-2 than stage-3.

 

[Shawn R]

It sounds like there is a lot of speculation on the cost vs. saleable value of the Red 1 M. What about the Red 1 MX a year from now? I was thinking on going Stage 2 and keeping my Red Ass.. If I don't fall in love with my Epic I could sell her and pick up a Red 1 MX for ~$15,000 next May.

Honestly my head is spinning a bit with all the numbers and I still have to do my taxes by May 1st, lol.

I got Red 2170 August 2008 so I have no idea where that will put me in line to receive Stage 3 Epic.
With my serial number do you think there will be much of a wait difference between Stage 2 and 3. A couple months I can live with, I don't have any big projects on the books right now.

 

[Tim Morten]

You seem to be overlooking supply and demand; If enough of your peers are willing to sell at $9000 to fill the demand, then your math means nothing.

With superior competition on the horizon, I wouldn't personally expect the demand for an executed R1 to be greater than the supply. There are over 7000 potential competitors for your buyer, right? That is just my instinct. Good luck.

FWIW, it seems that many R1's are changing hands for substantially > $9k. Those 7000 potential competitors turn out to be more like a handful of people who are actually willing to let go of their R1's right away. At any rate, I closed my deal, and I think that both myself and the buyer were happy, so it worked out. My Epic order has been placed.

Cheers,
Tim

 

[Scott Crawley]

FWIW, it seems that many R1's are changing hands for substantially > $9k. Those 7000 potential competitors turn out to be more like a handful of people who are actually willing to let go of their R1's right away. At any rate, I closed my deal, and I think that both myself and the buyer were happy, so it worked out. My Epic order has been placed.

Cheers,
Tim

Congrats! Enjoy your new tool when it arrives. It sounds like you did well to sell early.

What is the SN cutoff for Stage 2 anyway?

 

[Andrew Thomas]

Congrats! Enjoy your new tool when it arrives. It sounds like you did well to sell early.

Actually, I think a major reason for depressed prices right now are the R1 owners who don't have the funds for stage 2, but don't want to wait till stage 3 to move up. I think a lot of people willing to let their R1 go for $9k will not be willing to do that after the reservation cut-off.

 

[Michael Hastings]

It sounds like there is a lot of speculation on the cost vs. saleable value of the Red 1 M. What about the Red 1 MX a year from now? I was thinking on going Stage 2 and keeping my Red Ass.. If I don't fall in love with my Epic I could sell her and pick up a Red 1 MX for ~$15,000 next May.

Honestly my head is spinning a bit with all the numbers and I still have to do my taxes by May 1st, lol.

I got Red 2170 August 2008 so I have no idea where that will put me in line to receive Stage 3 Epic.
With my serial number do you think there will be much of a wait difference between Stage 2 and 3. A couple months I can live with, I don't have any big projects on the books right now.

Why would an mx r1 be worth anywhere near $15k when presumably the $7k S35 scarlet will be out with mx (5K?) sensor, similar or better specs and a much nicer package/form factor? Seems like substantially less than $7k will be more likely.

 

[Antonio Forjaz]

stage 2 and keeping R1, and having it Mx'ed is the way to go for me, then I will have 2 great cameras for all my shoots, EPIC can be A, R1Mx can be B, and off we go making movies....then a Scarlet for the tight stuff...like in side cars...small spaces...and when necessary rent one and still have one for shooting when I want and need...also I am the only RED owner in Mozambique, so no rental competition yet...lucky me...

 

[Mark Pedersen]

Accessories have a different resale value all together, and the 9k is referred to the R1 body only, off course, as this is the actual difference in dollar value after the upgrade, and with it the seller will have lost nothing.

However as stated before, I believe that the R1 value, even so definitely not as high as some think, but surely more then then 9K, but only for the low numbers which can be upgraded to the MX, if the R1 Serial No. is high and the time of the MX upgrade is long, there is no real value, and surely absolutely no worth paying a premium.

R1's will always be great cameras, especially with the MX in it, but once Epic is out followed by Scarlet, then the R1 will be left behind, far behind!

Hey Ketch,

What would you consider to be a "high" number? I'm at serial #1545 and was planning to go stage 3 since my camera isn't working enough right now. Plus I have no idea where RED is in the MX upgrade cue. If I'm close to being eligible to upgrade, maybe stage 2 makes more sense. But then I'm looking at having to come out pocket for the upgrade.. when there are MX cameras at rental houses in my market that still aren't working that much.

What to do...

Sounds like you think Stage 3 is the way to go...

M

 

[Chris Kenny]

Why would an mx r1 be worth anywhere near $15k when presumably the $7k S35 scarlet will be out with mx (5K?) sensor, similar or better specs and a much nicer package/form factor? Seems like substantially less than $7k will be more likely.

Some of it might depend on availability issues. If existing Red customers get some sort of order priority on Scarlets (I seem to recall this being mentioned) and/or there's quickly a 6 month waiting list, the market for R1 cameras could hold up reasonably well.

One thing to consider with respect to the R1-MX upgrade: if you were planning to buy a RedRocket, the bundle deal lowers the effective price of the sensor upgrade to $4000. And if you're also executing on a Stage 2 Epic upgrade, you get a $1250 credit toward the Epic as well, lowering the effective price to just $2750. At that point it's practically a no-brainer.

 

[Scott Crawley]

Accessories have a different resale value all together, and the 9k is referred to the R1 body only, off course, as this is the actual difference in dollar value after the upgrade, and with it the seller will have lost nothing.

One thing to consider with respect to the R1-MX upgrade: if you were planning to buy a RedRocket, the bundle deal lowers the effective price of the sensor upgrade to $4000. And if you're also executing on a Stage 2 Epic upgrade, you get a $1250 credit toward the Epic as well, lowering the effective price to just $2750. At that point it's practically a no-brainer.

There is the point. You could sell that R1 for $3,000 and still
make money because Jim will have subsidized the sale. There is no need to panic, and no reason to complain about the falling value... As long as you upgrade.

That's a lower number than even I thought.

 

[Ketch Rossi]

Hey Ketch,

What would you consider to be a "high" number? I'm at serial #1545 and was planning to go stage 3 since my camera isn't working enough right now. Plus I have no idea where RED is in the MX upgrade cue. If I'm close to being eligible to upgrade, maybe stage 2 makes more sense. But then I'm looking at having to come out pocket for the upgrade.. when there are MX cameras at rental houses in my market that still aren't working that much.

What to do...

Sounds like you think Stage 3 is the way to go...

M

Hey Mark,

high number has different meaning for MX vs. Epic-X, as I said many times in various threads, I trust and have confidence in the RED of today, to be a very different company form the RED of initial R1 shipping, so a HIgh serial for an Epic-X stage two means very little, as IMO the numbers of cameras that will ship out will be in far higher numbers then the R1's were.

Now when talking about high number for MX, well thing is MX is hot, but as more and more R1's, every one I know is upgrading, and every should, the market gets saturated again with cameras refreshed in higher demand then ever, and it will be so till lEpic-X ships, then will mellow, but not much, as Epic-X will still be a new camera, however considering that RED is swamped doing MX upgrades it is tanking a bit long to get cameras in line for the upgrade, loosing the value of higher R1's, but yours is in a relatively low serial, again remember that what it matters most is delivery date.


Any way, no I did not say stage 3 is best, the opposite!! Stage 2 is the only way to go!