The race is on...

[Jay A. Kelley]

We're into July. Here's what I (we) know:

Major bug in Epic is being killed.. It's mostly dead but not completely.
What does this mean? Who knows. Perhaps they have found it all, perhaps not. Perhaps it's dead or close to it, perhaps not.

Tattoo program is well underway. People involved have instructions not to speak about it. When exactly is started, or when it will end is also unknown (more the latter than the former)

Release date, Stage Two ship date, scarlet date, all unknowns.

At this time RED has the full support of the Epic crowd, with support and grumbleing from the Scarlet crowd, since they have even less information than Epic users (They also have fewer choices except for the Canon 5D).

So what now? Say "Hurry up RED!"... That's almost comical. The pressure on them to move cameras out the door is far greater than a few users bitching.

If they go too long, RED could lost a large number of sales. It's clear Canon has drunk the Kool-Aid of DSMC and they are currently trying to put something new together as per Jim's advice (No line skipping, better color, etc). Panasonic also got it and will release their high end/low cost camera end of this year (So we are told). The people going for these cameras do not have enough money to spend on two, so the first ones out the door get the business.

Scarlet has always confused me a little to be honest. Not the fixed lens version, I get that one. But the other... I just feel there are too many products crossing too many of the same lines. I like the choices, don't get me wrong, but I always thought there would be a low end camera (Scarlet Fixed) and a High end camera (Epic, Non-Fixed)... I am not saying what I want here, just thinking out loud.

RED succeeded.. They are no longer the underdog. Jim has changed the way cameras are made and marketed.. But in doing so, RED is quickly becoming the targert of every one else's development (If they were not already).

Epic needs to get out, and fast. But not as much for our sake as for RED's. Am I saying waiting too long can cost RED it's business? No.. Honestly I don't know enough about the business to speak about such things. What I DO know is that Canon got lucky, and kicked off a business model and product model it was not prepared for. That said, they know it now, and they will take advantage of it.. Who wouldn't?

As for me personally? I'm good for now. I never really expected Epics to be shippinig until year's end. Many say I am wrong, and you have no idea how much I WANT to be wrong, but it's July now. Even if Tattoo ended today you'd have to expect at LEAST 8 weeks to get things in order to move. That's september. My origional estimate put the end of tattoo at the end of this month or middle of August (RED's new Epic bug does not change this, I had already taken into account problems when I made my estimate).

We'll see how it goes. I still hold my position, for Epic, take your time. Get it right.. Make it work. For Scarlet.. I have no idea.. Honest.

Jay

 

[Robert Frank]

Lots of thoughts in your post Jay.

 

[XiaoSu Han]

End of year sounds reasonable.

 

[Fredrik Callinggard]

Beginning of next year is my estimate for #3xx and #5xx.

I think that Tattoo is not finished until end of sept.

BUT Epic has to have another sensor then MX sensor. That's a great sensor, but it's the sensor of this year. Epic needs to have the sensor of next year for it to compete.

Just my 2 cents

 

[Liam Hall]

Who knows when...

There are three distinct groups who are into RED. Film trained people, the DVX/Industrial video crowd and newbies/students/wedding folk.

RED is trying to appeal to all, which obviously, is a tough call: One can argue ARRI is simply trying to appeal to the film boys and gals: Canon may come up with a DVX/Industrial video crowd pleaser and wedding/students are already in heaven with 5D/7D etc.

I'll wager RED will get the right tools to the right people in the right market before all the other players.

 

[Sanjin Jukic]

NAB 2011 big launch of EPIC 5K digital motion and still camera system at the Tropicana Hotel, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Two months later another big launch of SCARLET 3K digital motion and stills camera system at the RED STUDIOS HOLLYWOOD, Los Angeles, California.

Don't forget that according to the situation of a pretty long EPIC debugging that could take maybe even 6 months of delay

that 2011 is a target year for the finishing of both camera system projects.

 

[Rick Darge]

Sanjin, what are you going to do now?

 

[Liam Hall]

Sanjin, what are you going to do now?

I hear he's going to be Roger Deakins' new agent

 

[Elsie N]

If they go too long, RED could lost a large number of sales. It's clear Canon has drunk the Kool-Aid of DSMC and they are currently trying to put something new together as per Jim's advice (No line skipping, better color, etc). Panasonic also got it and will release their high end/low cost camera end of this year (So we are told). The people going for these cameras do not have enough money to spend on two, so the first ones out the door get the business. (snip)....


Epic needs to get out, and fast. But not as much for our sake as for RED's. Am I saying waiting too long can cost RED it's business? No.. Honestly I don't know enough about the business to speak about such things. What I DO know is that Canon got lucky, and kicked off a business model and product model it was not prepared for. That said, they know it now, and they will take advantage of it.. Who wouldn't?


Jay

Jay, what you are saying is probably true. But I would add that while some will choose another camera if the Epic et al is not available soon, I think those customers will return to the fold when their other camera has a customer service issue, a firmware issue, an image quality issue.

What I'm saying is that over the long haul, those who have been on board for a long time will stay the course, and any newbies who have never experienced a "customer first" approach to doing business will jump to the newest available piece of furniture.

Even the gripers who rant and rave about not getting instant gratification will, I believe, still be in line when their camera of choice becomes available.

Some who have to, may make a stop-gap choice just to get their projects done. But when they are able to get what they really want, they will put the "other" camera up in the top of a closet and shoot with their dream camera. This I believe.

 

[Frank Weeks]

RED succeeded.. They are no longer the underdog. Jim has changed the way cameras are made and marketed.. But in doing so, RED is quickly becoming the targert of every one else's development (If they were not already).

correct.

I still hold my position, for Epic, take your time. Get it right..

It's critical!!!

 

[Sanjin Jukic]

Sanjin, what are you going to do now?

As I said before preparing lightweight gear for summer holidays in Ibiza and Austrian Alps.

Do not plan to buy any new camera except maybe a new underwater digital compact because my old Olympus gets water inside.

That means Canon 7D run&gun also with a new timelapse opportunities using Kessler's Cine Slider with motor.

That's it.

Also I'm not so interested in video capabilities of 5D.

I hear he's going to be Roger Deakins' new agent

I've just got a letter that my application unfortunately was not accepted there... :laugh:

 

[David Battistella]

I still hold my position, for Epic, take your time.

Jay

This is a good plan for a few reasons:

1. R1 owners can get more out of their investment.
2. R1-MX owners can get more time to recover their investment
3. EPIC will be a more reliable platform.


David

 

[Brigham Edgar]

I think that Tattoo is not finished until end of sept.

BUT Epic has to have another sensor then MX sensor. That's a great sensor, but it's the sensor of this year. Epic needs to have the sensor of next year for it to compete.

I tend to agree...MX is here and now so the desire in EPIC is going to be little less. I own an MX already and it has taken a small bit of shine off when i get the EPIC, after all, it has the same sensor with the same images! Considering there is now a lengthy delay in EPIC and years end is a very real possibility the sensor would have been out for a year. It's a new, very cool form factor but in reality the only brain available is one that is a year old, and i know i can't tick over tens of thousands again for a new brain not long after the MX brain! Stage 3 now looks more attractive than the stage 2 I signed up for when i thought it was only a couple months away...after all, they wanted $5K for a deposit! But who knows now...not even RED!
My real question is Scarlet and the 2/3" sensor. While it is definitly going to have a market share and it's uses...the market has spoken and the bar has been raised to FF or at least S35! Launching a 2/3" brain in the form of Scarlet will be great, but the shine is definitly a little matte now. Things have just changed since the launch of the specs all that time ago and if RED want to stay ahead of the pack they better look at getting those S35 and FF brains ready to tick out the door at the same time and give people options...especially if it could be next year before it even hits the ground! there are going to more offerings out there from manufactures and 2/3" is just going to be well overlooked...by not all but a LOT! It will have a market but if that is all that is available i cannot see anyone wanting to go backwards with DOF and after all...these people are putting up with the shit video and functionality from DSLR's as they don't care...they want the short DOF! RED have to know this and have said that brain development will be easy (well easier) than a whole new camera system so i think they need to have a department working overtime to get a FF brain as an option when Scarlet is ready...not 6-12 months after...that could easily make it 2012 by then! Other manufacturers will well and truly be out by then and the majority going for Scarlet due to budget won't be buying new cameras every 12 months...more like every 4-5 years!

 

[Mark Pugh]

Beginning of next year is my estimate for #3xx and #5xx.

I think that Tattoo is not finished until end of sept.

BUT Epic has to have another sensor then MX sensor. That's a great sensor, but it's the sensor of this year. Epic needs to have the sensor of next year for it to compete.

Just my 2 cents

I agree... I think that next year's sensor is a FF35 6k sensor.
That would result in world domination.
I wish Red was working on that one right now. That's one sensor that I cannot imaging becoming obsolete for many years.

 

[Stephen Lovett]

You guys crack me up.

Let me add a few weights to the other side of the balance.

MX rocks.

The thing getting in my way isn't the lack of better gear at this point, it me building the experience and instincts to get to the point that it takes me a lot less time to get things lit how I see it in my head.

MX provides me everything I need from an image capture perspective today.

My last project was all tungsten / magic hour / night, and MX was BRILLIANT.

The principle thing that Epic will give me is a much smaller footprint to get that image and hopefully less of the ghost in the machine stuff that we all deal with regularly. (So the evf is going to be fussy today, two reboots, disconnect reconnect, now ok. So you don't think the 16GB card is fast enough, how about a reboot, now everything is OK right)

That and over-cranked footage without screwing around with a smaller sensor area capture.

R1-MX is better than anything out there that is anywhere near the mark as far as price. And for a full on cinema camera, it kicks ass.

But that configuration is BIG, and HEAVY, and frankly a pita to handhold, steadicam, 3D etc.

Epic resolves those issues.

Higher data rates will give the software team more data as a base, and allow even better color science in the future.

I for one just want a rock solid camera that is less fussy than the RED One, and RED is working on just that.

I don't need a new sensor, I just want what they've got coming, and I want it when it's bullet proof.

Let the flames begin

Steve

 

[David Rasberry]

Don't discount the impact of 2/3" Scarlet. Personally I will take the little Scarlet with near Epic level performance and features over any native 1080p video camera regardless of sensor size.
The current mass obsession with shallow dof is mostly among youngsters who aspire to narrative fictional film making and that is a very small part of the overall market many of whom won't find a practical Scarlet package affordable anyway.
The 2/3"/16mm sized medium is a much more practical all around format for many styles of production. There are many of us who will prefer true 16mm film like performance in a robust high resolution digital camera like Scarlet over inferior video from cheap 35mm alternatives.

 

[Brigham Edgar]

Don't discount the impact of 2/3" Scarlet.
The current mass obsession with shallow dof is mostly among youngsters who aspire to narrative fictional film making.

David, this remark is a little off the mark. While a fair share a younger or newer people are buying up these cameras for what they offer in DOF there is a very very large portion of people buying these cameras up because of exactly this shallower DOF. Top listing directors and DOP's are using these amongst a host of mid-range commercial makers in combination with lower budget people. I don't want to start another DSLR thread or conversation but one only has to look at the credits FF DSLR's have and the MASSIVE demand for this look. I can for one say (and i know of plenty of others globally) that this ultra shallow DOF is a BIG desire and it is what people want. While there is huge demand for 2/3" and 16mm size DOF it is by and by not as desirable as FF or S35 in both Feature, episodic and commercial television. Yes there is demand for it and always uses for it where it is beneficial but no where what there is for shallower DOF...and that's plain fact by what we have seen in the market with the DSLR's. And even if it is lower market end this reinforces my point that if money is tight and you only have a couple of options as a younger filmmaker then without a doubt you could easily say 9/10 will go FF or S35 if it is on offer. For RED's Scarlet to have a big an impact as the DSLR's have they HAVE to have something bigger than 2/3"...without it they will be second choice to a lot of people.

The MX sensor absolutely rocks and shoots great images, it's state of the art and no-one is questioning that. But it could likely be a one year old sensor by the time EPIC rolls out. And considering MONSTRO was supposed to be 12 months after MX it would be due not long after we actually see shipping EPIC's. I am not sure if i want another MX sensor if Monstro was even 6-9 months after i were to get my EPIC with it's MX brain.

 

[Mark Pugh]

The current mass obsession with shallow dof is mostly among youngsters who aspire to narrative fictional film making and that is a very small part of the overall market

I agree with Brigham that you're off the mark here.
I'd like to have all options available. FF35 is a great one that can expand creative possibilities.
Having a FF35 sensor doesn't mean that's the only format available on the camera. The same camera could shoot in cropped mode, either for S35, "16mm, or 2:1squeeze 35mmAnamorphic.

If you think 16mm or 2/3 inch is all you need, that's fine, but it certainly doesn't cover what most people evision themselves using into the future.

You can't criticise FFF35 based on the 5D's performance, as it will be a superseded camera in a few months anyway.
The thread started with the question of "what will you be wanting next year".
The FF35 format will only become more attractive as better cameras based on the format emerge, probably at the end of this year.

 

[Jeff Coatney]

Good summary, Jay. Here's my thinking on the status quo. This is purely conjectural. Think of it as a threat assessment. The predictions I make here are from my own experience and a careful reading of the tea leaves on Red User. In other words, go easy when they're proven wrong-- it just wastes your time.

Major bug in Epic is being killed.. It's mostly dead but not completely.
What does this mean? Who knows. Perhaps they have found it all, perhaps not. Perhaps it's dead or close to it, perhaps not.

My take: The bug is 98% contained. A robust and thorough testing regimen is underway to confirm this. I look for an announcement within a week or two of the bug(s) demise and the continuation of Tattoo.

Tattoo program is well underway. People involved have instructions not to speak about it. When exactly is started, or when it will end is also unknown (more the latter than the former)

The Tattoo "program" will never end. They will arrive at a basic level of functionality and predictability soon and pull the trigger on assembly. Since Epic will be made here in the US, that facility is currently being readied with parts bins, component machining, training and sub-assemblies. I would guess that of the first 1,000 cameras on the line, as many as a third of them are within 80% of being fully assembled.

Release date, Stage Two ship date, scarlet date, all unknowns.

If they go too long, RED could lost a large number of sales. It's clear Canon has drunk the Kool-Aid of DSMC and they are currently trying to put something new together as per Jim's advice (No line skipping, better color, etc). Panasonic also got it and will release their high end/low cost camera end of this year (So we are told). The people going for these cameras do not have enough money to spend on two, so the first ones out the door get the business.

True, but not relevant to Red's circumstances. Red is a development entity. Think of Ferrari as an automotive example. Ferrari sets the engineering bar and wins the races, they manufacture, but in short runs and limited quantities. Canon and Panasonic are Honda & Toyota, they innovate, but for a larger, more mainstream market segment. Ferrari is always scaling Mt. Everest, Honda and Toyota are hiking in central park. (Sorry, I speak in parables).

Red's sensor program targets were almost unachievable when they were announced. No large scale manufacturer like Canon or Panasonic will innovate that far out because they cannot manage that internally. Red has met those goals and they are working towards even greater heights.

Keep in mind that the key Red's sensor magic is their internal color science. For Canon and Panasonic to play Red's game, they have to propagate their own (industry standard?) color science throughout their already entrenched market.

Canon and Panasonic's market data is fed to them through an elaborate network of dealers, sales and marketing layers and a legacy supply-chain that dates back to the days of Polaroid. The market has to give them pretty compelling evidence that it will buy the innovations we all think they should be working on. They have advanced programs, but they are designed to hit emerging consumer trends, not top level pro shooters. If they see top pros demanding features, they will add them, but they typically have to see some erosion in their sales to justify it. Red does not represent this level of threat.

Red is quiet. They are shooting, testing, and auditioning factories overseas to see who can deliver the revised volumes on Scarlet. I look for a solution to this problem in 30 days or so. Start up to full production will be promised by the new factory to occur within 90 days, but will take as long as 150 days.

Scarlet has always confused me a little to be honest. Not the fixed lens version, I get that one. But the other... I just feel there are too many products crossing too many of the same lines. I like the choices, don't get me wrong, but I always thought there would be a low end camera (Scarlet Fixed) and a High end camera (Epic, Non-Fixed)... I am not saying what I want here, just thinking out loud.

I agree with you. Red's current posture aligns closely with professional 35mm and 16mm film cameras. Literally Digital Cinema. I expect a trimming of the product line once Epic launches in force. Red will then have some hard data with which to refocus their path forward. The fixed Scarlet is a no-brainer, the 2/3" Scarlet is a zero risk addition. I think we could see the other Scarlet formats get "adjusted".

RED succeeded.. They are no longer the underdog. Jim has changed the way cameras are made and marketed.. But in doing so, RED is quickly becoming the targert of every one else's development (If they were not already).

Epic needs to get out, and fast. But not as much for our sake as for RED's. Am I saying waiting too long can cost RED it's business? No.. Honestly I don't know enough about the business to speak about such things. What I DO know is that Canon got lucky, and kicked off a business model and product model it was not prepared for. That said, they know it now, and they will take advantage of it.. Who wouldn't?

I think Canon figured out that with a small investment in engineering, they could capture some of the market share in high-end videography by offering HD video, so they did it. They have been wildly successful with it. I don't think they are prepared to offer what Red's offering the market just yet. They will have to completely rebuild their top-end models to get out of them what the market will expect them to deliver. That capability is simply not represented in sufficient numbers in the market for it to justify the enormous costs of creating a sensor, data pathway, battery management system and the media requirements that go with it. They have to fit these things into a familiar form-factor. They will have less freedom to go modular because it will cost the end-user too much.

Red's pricing across the board is just high enough to dissuade a competitor from poaching them. Margins will be slim, but it will serve to protect them while they get Epic ready. Scarlet scares the shit out of them.

The legacy players will announce, they will show prototypes, they will promise you the moon. But in this economy, even their top end customers are showing some weakness. They would have to hit a massively aggressive price-point in order to write enough business to give the DSLR* folks what they're all clamoring for. This is just my opinion, but in this market condition, you have to over-deliver on features and slash pricing to get anyone to buy. Making new product costs lots and lots of money. Their efforts would be rewarded quicker by lowering the pricing on their current models and squeezing features out of firmware for another year.

This is the core of Red's strategy. Promise big and over-deliver with pricing that makes the legacy players in the industry scratch their heads in awe. And yet do all of it while raising the quality level in the image and the service. A simple yet confoundingly difficult trick to pull off. It literally takes a driven, goal-oriented non-conformist at the top as the final decision maker. And lots of rocket fuel (funding). But, if you can find such a person and give them the resources, you can punch a hole in the sky.

For me, the Red saga is like attending a Harvard MBA seminar. I am fascinated as much by the technology as I am by the manner in which a legacy industry is being taken to school daily by raw passion, aggressive development and savvy market positioning. It is beautiful in the way watching Michael Jordan play basketball is beautiful. The suspense is killing me...

*Meaning motion picture shooters who want top end video, not stills shooters who are migrating to motion pictures.

 

[Jay A. Kelley]

Great Post Jeff...

Thanks!

Jay