Stage three pays twice?

[Paul Leeming]

Dylan, this is a fantastic thread to have started and raises a great discussion on all the issues lots of us (ourselves included) have been grappling with since the announcement of the R1 M-X upgrade. So thankyou!

Everyone's points have been really good to read as well.

This all boils down to timelines balanced against people's finances. With the world economy being what it is (and with little change in sight) business owners need to think long and hard about which path they take as the wrong decision could lead to a lot of financial pain with no gain to show for it.

Complicating the issue even more is the S35 Scarlet vs Epic-X vs Red One M-X. From discussions in other threads, for most people Epic's advantage comes down to one thing - framerates at full sensor readout. S35 Scarlet appears to be all that a Red One M-X is, for a third the money roughly. That means that the future value of a Red One M-X package has to be weighed against a bunch of people buying into the new system and having a superior camera for much less than Red One M-X would appear to be worth.

The corollary to that is we don't know when Scarlet S35 will come out either (but we work under the assumption that it will be after Epic S35).

I haven't even begun to factor in what I believe will be the other elephant in the room in 2010, and that is stereoscopic 3D. I imagine there will be a lot of demand for S3D shooting solutions this year, but the one I see being the most viable for the least amount of money is a stereo pair of 2/3" Fixed Lens Scarlets. To shoot Red 3D currently you need a very expensive beam splitter rig, but with cameras small enough to mount side by side that cost will be largely done away with, making it far easier to shoot as well as cheaper.

Also, client budgets are way down. Witness the explosion of 5D and now 7D video work being done. This is "good enough" for the vast majority and I fear that Scarlet will take a lot of rentals away from the more expensive Epic, even more so if my theory on 3D shooting with 2x 2/3" Fixed Lens Scarlets proves sound.

Post with the new M-X is also something to think about. I'm PC based and as far as I know, there's still NO WAY to use RedRocket in a PC even with Red's own tools. Adobe hasn't even managed to get a build 20 compatible plug-in out for CS4 for THIS generation of sensor!! How long will it be before I can natively import M-X derived R3D files into that system (which is in every other aspect a formidable package)?!

There's so much to think about. So much uncertainty.

I totally agree that I'd love to have a more concrete guestimate from Red about delivery schedules on Epic-X Stage 2 and 3, but I fear that with the ASIC being an ongoing challenge to build even Red doesn't have an answer to give even if they wanted to.....

What we all need right now (in an ideal world) is information from Red on these points:

- Schedule best guesses for Red One M-X upgrade timeframe
- Schedule best guesses for Tattoo and Epic-X Stage 2 rollout
- Schedule best guesses for Epic-X Stage 3 rollout
- Workflow options for BOTH Mac AND Windows for the M-X footage
- Schedule best guesses for Scarlet line and 3D systems rollout
- Workflow options for BOTH Mac AND Windows for 3D Red post

Have I missed any?

Thanks again for reading and raising this topic!

Paul

 

[Peter Hodgins]

Wouldn't it be more consistent with RED's policy up to now to offer credit of your camera ($17500) and add what you invested in the sensor ($5750) to the trade in deal.

Do you want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?

 

[Elsie N]

Dylan, this is a fantastic thread to have started and raises a great discussion on all the issues lots of us (ourselves included) have been grappling with since the announcement of the R1 M-X upgrade. So thankyou!

Everyone's points have been really good to read as well.

This all boils down to timelines balanced against people's finances. With the world economy being what it is (and with little change in sight) business owners need to think long and hard about which path they take as the wrong decision could lead to a lot of financial pain with no gain to show for it.

Complicating the issue even more is the S35 Scarlet vs Epic-X vs Red One M-X. From discussions in other threads, for most people Epic's advantage comes down to one thing - framerates at full sensor readout. S35 Scarlet appears to be all that a Red One M-X is, for a third the money roughly. That means that the future value of a Red One M-X package has to be weighed against a bunch of people buying into the new system and having a superior camera for much less than Red One M-X would appear to be worth.

The corollary to that is we don't know when Scarlet S35 will come out either (but we work under the assumption that it will be after Epic S35).

I haven't even begun to factor in what I believe will be the other elephant in the room in 2010, and that is stereoscopic 3D. I imagine there will be a lot of demand for S3D shooting solutions this year, but the one I see being the most viable for the least amount of money is a stereo pair of 2/3" Fixed Lens Scarlets. To shoot Red 3D currently you need a very expensive beam splitter rig, but with cameras small enough to mount side by side that cost will be largely done away with, making it far easier to shoot as well as cheaper.

Also, client budgets are way down. Witness the explosion of 5D and now 7D video work being done. This is "good enough" for the vast majority and I fear that Scarlet will take a lot of rentals away from the more expensive Epic, even more so if my theory on 3D shooting with 2x 2/3" Fixed Lens Scarlets proves sound.

Post with the new M-X is also something to think about. I'm PC based and as far as I know, there's still NO WAY to use RedRocket in a PC even with Red's own tools. Adobe hasn't even managed to get a build 20 compatible plug-in out for CS4 for THIS generation of sensor!! How long will it be before I can natively import M-X derived R3D files into that system (which is in every other aspect a formidable package)?!

There's so much to think about. So much uncertainty.

I totally agree that I'd love to have a more concrete guestimate from Red about delivery schedules on Epic-X Stage 2 and 3, but I fear that with the ASIC being an ongoing challenge to build even Red doesn't have an answer to give even if they wanted to.....

What we all need right now (in an ideal world) is information from Red on these points:

- Schedule best guesses for Red One M-X upgrade timeframe
- Schedule best guesses for Tattoo and Epic-X Stage 2 rollout
- Schedule best guesses for Epic-X Stage 3 rollout
- Workflow options for BOTH Mac AND Windows for the M-X footage
- Schedule best guesses for Scarlet line and 3D systems rollout
- Workflow options for BOTH Mac AND Windows for 3D Red post

Have I missed any?

Thanks again for reading and raising this topic!

Paul

Great summary! Thanks Paul.

 

[Dylan Macleod CSC]

Do you want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?

Absolutely not.

And - as it was stated in this thread - a full refund is not practical.

I was just suggesting that RED seems to operate from a place where they want to defend the credo "making obsolescence obselete". I come to their defence constantly in the real world for their support that way.

All of their generous policies seem to reflect that.

There is a credit for stage two. Why not stage three? Especially because RED is going to get that camera back with the upgraded sensor in it. Surely that is more valuable to resell (if that is what they are going to do) than a camera without the new sensor?

The logic seems inconsistent.

As it has also been suggested - this is likely because they want to encourage people to keep the cameras.

So - stage three pays twice.

Seems a mild shift away from RED's previously established values.

 

[Dylan Macleod CSC]

What we all need right now (in an ideal world) is information from Red on these points:

- Schedule best guesses for Red One M-X upgrade timeframe
- Schedule best guesses for Tattoo and Epic-X Stage 2 rollout
- Schedule best guesses for Epic-X Stage 3 rollout
- Workflow options for BOTH Mac AND Windows for the M-X footage
- Schedule best guesses for Scarlet line and 3D systems rollout
- Workflow options for BOTH Mac AND Windows for 3D Red post

Have I missed any?

Thanks again for reading and raising this topic!

Paul

Great Summary Paul.

 

[Stacey Spears]

I'm PC based and as far as I know, there's still NO WAY to use RedRocket in a PC even with Red's own tools.

SCRATCH added RR support in 5.0, so there is at least one finishing solution, albeit high end. They will probably be the first with FLUT too.

 

[Cüneyt Kaya]

what we all should know is that murphys law reached the camera world...and i cant imagine apple taking my 8 core macpro back for the new 12 core macpro, so i thank red for every upgrade trade in choice i can get. period!

another 18 months later monstro will come, what then? your new shiny epix will be totally unsexy?

what makes a lot of redowners (i know) carefully with investing money is imho scarletS35.

a scarletS35+set of RPPs cost the same as one epic brain.

a scarletS35+3 RPPs cost the same as one upgraded R1 with MX sensor.

highspeed or a set of RPPs? everybody should make a decision for himself.

man these are tough decisions to be made
i know some redowners, who are willing to invest another 10k-15k usd in Redstuff, but instead of stage 3, they are thinking about selling their R1, then lay back, wait for the scarletS35 and buy another set o RPPs...the 6-9 months inbetween they want to gap by renting a REd if needed, its cheap.

me personnaly dont know what to do.


---another of my useless opinions..: EpicS35 and Scarlet S35 are really similar from what we know (High Speed beeing the main difference, right?)...a way to seperate them more is to build Epic with a Square sensor....maybe...its just a guess
its also hard for RED...tough decisions to be made.

 

[Rob Ruffo]

I agree with David. I think the last thing Red wants is 7000 returned Red Ones. Seem to be sweetening the pot to go for stage 2 and trying to deter from stage 3.

As you say Dylan, there are so many variables it becomes difficult to plan, and in this business, it's all about planning.

Sure I want an Epic now. I would also like an upgraded Red now. But if my Red becomes just another technology sitting on my camera shelf because Scarlet suddenly makes it lose all value, this becomes a tough pill to swallow.

Perhaps David's plan of Tattoo for an extended period is good. Sorry to say though, if I do go for stage 2 and upgraded my Red, I'd also like to see Scarlet S35 pushed back so I can validate the stage 2 with an upgrade. Although (before people start flaming) the shooter-within would also like the Scarlet as a B-cam to the Epic as soon as possible too (especially if it came out the same time as stage 3).

Loving this ride and it truly has been fun (despite the agony of post never quite catching up to the technology), but things could get messy if we all aren't careful (both Red and the customers). I think Red has been wonderful throughout this process. They have listened to the customer, they have responded to the issues and fortunately the changes keep changing - which usually adds up to something better for the customer in the end.

But in the end - I guess rendering obsolescence obsolete is a rather difficult goal to achieve.

I doubt Scarlet will amke your Red lose all value. It is, after all, just a 2/3 sensor that uses "mini primes" which are no way, no way, no way, anywhere near Cookes, RPPs, or Canon L Glass, or even Zeiss SLR Lenses, for that matter, all of which go right onto a Red without issues. Physics is physics, no matter what.

I'm sure that even after Epic is released, there will be value in a used Red 1. It si still a great camera. How much value is hard to say, but it will be significant, not $500.

 

[Julio Quintana]

...a way to seperate them more is to build Epic with a Square sensor....

You raise a good point about S35 Scarlet being a serious threat to Epic-X, but this isn't a serious suggestion is it?

 

[Cüneyt Kaya]

I doubt Scarlet will amke your Red lose all value. It is, after all, just a 2/3 sensor that uses "mini primes" which are no way, no way, no way, anywhere near Cookes, RPPs, or Canon L Glass, or even Zeiss SLR Lenses, for that matter, all of which go right onto a Red without issues. Physics is physics, no matter what.

I'm sure that even after Epic is released, there will be value in a used Red 1. It si still a great camera. How much value is hard to say, but it will be significant, not $500.

guess he talked about ScarletS35
i want to know more about the RPAs, but Scarlet cant dequeeze ana pictures, right? the R1 can

 

[Rob Ruffo]

I always though stage 3 is my bet. This might change now. I think it boils down to these points:

1. The new sensor gives the RedOne an extended life as a backup body/second camera next to Epic until Monstro hits the market, an interesting perspective.

2. I purely guess here, but making MyteriumX available now may be a hint for an even more delayed EpicX. Before the new sensor upgrade program I predicted Epic to be available in Summer 2010, now I suppose it's going to be end of the year. This makes perfectly sense because Red learned their lesson that a beta-testing customer crowed is not a long-term business model. With Epic their competitor is Arri.

3. Stage 3 customers are the ones that stand on the end of the queue. So Spring 2011 would be not unrealistic for EpicX delivery. This is more than a year to go.

4. My understanding is that R3Ds generated by the new sensor cannot be processed by the current SDK. This is not the best news, because all of those (like me) who finally have a working workflow based on advanced third party tools are not compatible anymore, until the new SDK is implemented. This takes months, not weeks.

What to do?

Waiting. I'm in the 900s. My call will be probably in march for the sensor upgrade, hardly earlier. By then the new SDK is out and my application vendors can give me an estimate when the new SDK is implemented in new builds of their software.

Finally, I did not buy the RedRocket yet because I don't need it. I do RT 2K/1080p deliveries on tape already with current hardware, no RedRocket involved. Investing the planned budget for the RedRocket in the new sensor is much more meaningful if my tools can take advantage of the new SDK.

The least thing I can use now is a broken workflow. The new sensor brings us where we've been 2 years ago: a great camera with an awkward workflow. It took me one year and some money to sort this out. I'm positive that this will be much faster now.

And BTW, I don't rent out my camera, but solely use it for my own projects. Unfortunately I'm dead sure that my customers won't recognize the difference the new sensor is going to make, the pictures are great already. So now pressure on this front either.

Hans

But YOU will notice - To me the most stressful thing about HD is those damned clipped highlights. The new sensor will make this ultimate stressor less fo a concern (still a concern, but...) For that loss of stress, I am willing to pay $$$.

 

[Rob Ruffo]

guess he talked about ScarletS35

I suppose. My real worry is that Scarlet S35 (unless I'm wrong) will have a larger sensor than an Epic, while being lighter. won't this make it, in fact, a better cam?

 

[Cüneyt Kaya]

I suppose. My real worry is that Scarlet S35 (unless I'm wrong) will have a larger sensor than an Epic, while being lighter. won't this make it, in fact, a better cam?

Scarlet FF35 will definitly have a 6k sensor (Monstro) with more DR than epic-x, better camera? if you like highspeed not.

scarlet s35 and epic x will have the SAME sensor

 

[David Battistella]

Scarlet FF35 will definitly have a 6k sensor (Monstro) with more DR than epic-x, better camera? if you like highspeed not.

scarlet s35 and epic x will have the SAME sensor

I like the idea of speculation, but can we keep it to camera's that have been announced or shipping soon.

David

 

[Cüneyt Kaya]

I like the idea of speculation, but can we keep it to camera's that have been announced or shipping soon.

David

i dont know which part is speculation?

all S35 brains/bodies share the same sensor.

1st generation sensor MX with max 5k, later Monstro with FF max 6k.

taking murphies law, it should have another stop of DR over MX.
announced months ago....and the part about shipping soon, to build scarlet S35 is easier than epicx because you dont have to implement the power into the brain to get 4k 100 fps out of the sensor (heatsink etc included)
so their release will be close together.

then the whole game begins again with Monstro

so what is your point exactly? serious q

the infos are based on what Red said.

dont know if you have other sources, if so, please share

 

[Cüneyt Kaya]

You raise a good point about S35 Scarlet being a serious threat to Epic-X, but this isn't a serious suggestion is it?

i mean in the type of if you want highspeed and anamorphitic lenses, epic is the way.

for sperical 24fps shooting scarlet s35...

i dont know, maybe its best just to wait till epic exists, and upgrade the R1 to MX in the meantime.

 

[David Battistella]

i dont know which part is speculation?

all S35 brains/bodies share the same sensor.

1st generation sensor MX with max 5k, later Monstro with FF max 6k.

taking murphies law, it should have another stop of DR over MX.
announced months ago....and the part about shipping soon, to build scarlet S35 is easier than epicx because you dont have to implement the power into the brain to get 4k 100 fps out of the sensor (heatsink etc included)
so their release will be close together.

then the whole game begins again with Monstro

so what is your point exactly? serious q

the infos are based on what Red said.

dont know if you have other sources, if so, please share

I'm just talking about what is working. RED announced a sensor for every camera system that exists from a 2/3" to a 28K and everything in between.

I'm just suggesting we keep it to what we know now exists which is the R1 and the M-X.

Just because "RED said" it really means nothing because "everything is subject to change"
Would I complain if a bunch of these camera's never come to fruition... NO... why? Because it is likely that they will not make them all. If they do, Good on them.

I'm not being combatative, just trying to keep it to what exists and the choices you HAVE TODAY.

Those two choices are:

BUY A RED ONE
UPGRADE A RED ONE

EPIC does not exist until I get an e-mail from RED... you know what I mean?

David

David

 

[Stephen Pruitt]

BUT, and here it is again, I REALLY WOULD love to see someone like Jarred, or Jim, or whomever come on here and give us their best guess as to the Epic S35 and Scarlet S35 time lines. A lot of us just won't be able to make an intelligent decision without it. Monstro is vastly more speculative at this point, so I'm not at all concerned about anything that far out. But this year? Yeah. I'd really like to know the current plan.

Stephen

 

[David Battistella]

BUT, and here it is again, I REALLY WOULD love to see someone like Jarred, or Jim, or whomever come on here and give us their best guess as to the Epic S35 and Scarlet S35 time lines. A lot of us just won't be able to make an intelligent decision without it. Monstro is vastly more speculative at this point, so I'm not at all concerned about anything that far out. But this year? Yeah. I'd really like to know the current plan.

Stephen

Totally agree.

But I doubt we will see that. The question most likely would have been answered in the original thread when I asked it.

http://reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?p=536964#post536964

The fact that it was not answered there or here is reason enough to not expect an answer.

They are reading all this stuff, but I have to say if I was them, I would not answer. What does RED have to gain by answering the question?

If they say EPIC is delayed, that is why we are offering you the upgrade now, then the collective whine will be "AW. EPIC is late" or "Hey, you said we would have it by now".and all the BLAH BLAH BLAH that goes along with it.

If they say, "EPIC is on schedule and the program starts Feb 1, then most of us would probably wait for the EPIC and be totally happy with the R1 until then.

The thing to think about is WHY? What motivates the decision to go with the UPGRADE program. What would motivate this? It probably a few factors:

1. Money.
2. It's a buffer period until EPIC ships.
3. They love us and just want to be nice and offer us an upgrade.
4. Just because.

I don't know, but to me, it does not make sense to offer this if EPIC is right around the corner because I think they value "us" as customers and would not use the upgrade program as a way to get more money out of the customer.

Every announcement has a motivation, the trick with this one seems to be trying to figure out why? It seems like a stop gap measure, since the AISC announcement effectively put a short delay in the EPIC program.

If it was indeed a delay, I wouldn't care at all, I think an R1-MX is an excellent solution untill an all the bugs are completely worked out with the EPIC program.

We've had growing pains with the R1 we don't need to repeat all that with EPIC. I'd be happy to hear there is a 12 month delay and continue to invest via the R1 upgrade program like this which is an excellent offering.

But alas...I know nothing and I can only make a best guess, which is what this post is.

David

 

[Mike Smith]

With all due respect, I think you guys are way over-analyzing this. For a start, Jarred gave us a best estimate schedule back on 11/30/09 (post #8 from the November 30th announcements):

...

"Tattoo- early 2010
EPIC S35 Stage 2- NAB 2010 (or shortly after)
EPIC S35 Stage 3 & 4- pre-summer 2010

Scarlet 2/3" (both models)- May-June 2010
Scarlet S35- Summer 2010

This presupposes that there are no other major surprises..... "

...

According to that, Tattoo is not running late as suggested earlier in this thread.

Red are being unusually fair and upfront about all these developments. There's nothing "underhand" about them providing an MX sensor for the Red One at this time. That part of the technology is ready now. Whether or not you buy an Epic-X, if you keep your Red One, surely you'd want to upgrade it eventually anyway. So now you get a deal on it to get the ball rolling. Great, I say. My only suggestion to Red to make everyone happy, is to run Stage 2 & 3 concurrently to give all early adopters equal access to an Epic-X. Just a thought.