Redonomics

[Tom Greenberg]

You know what pisses me off?

When RED saw that I hadn't purchased a RED ONE, they came to me around 2011 and threatened to take one of my two children if I didn't buy a Scarlet. Now, having only two children, I had to agree and did so, but imagine my anger when it actually cost so much I had to mortgage both of them to pay for it. The lack of personal freedom with the RED program makes me feel like I am in prison. Terrible, terrible, terrible.

THAT'S what pisses me off.

Not to mention that the only thing you have to take care of you in your old age is a camera, since you had to sell your children. ;-)

 

[Mark Wilkinson]

Don't forget the dog.

 

[Rolf Kestermann]

Rolf,

let's see what we have here:

so u paid 43K to consistently own and use for the last 8 years one of the top-of-the-food chain cameras... for 8 years. Wow. You were shooting 4K 8 years ago, Arri still don't do it. And for that 43K u could have made just a deposit on an Arri, u still wouldn't own anything.

Sounds like a very good deal.

There's peeps who make that 43K back easily in less than 6 months. EASILY. So they basically always had the best RED cam for free for 7.5 years. Not bad.

U know what's even better ?

U sell ur Dragon right now, u get easily 25K on the market, that brings ur cam body investment down to 18K. 18K over 8 years, having the best or one of the best cams on the market. Shooting 4K since 2007 and the frame rates, R3dcode etc pp

Now... blablabla... u know that u could have easily made 18K over 8 years renting the cam or shooting student films in Timbuktu or just shooting 4K stock footage of ur big toe... ;-)

Q.e.d.

Look at the upfront investment on the F65 and what they are selling for right now... these peeps are losing easily 70K... for ONE cam (in just 3 years). U owned FOUR cams (in 8 years): R1, R1 MX, Epic-X, Dragon.

Q.e.d. ^ 2

I didn't qualify if it was a good or bad deal, simply calling for patience. From R1 to Epic was really a new camera, but I don't see it this time around, it is a rehousing
fixing lay out issues, which is a good thing. I just think that one may consider not to upgrade an MX to Dragon to get to Weapon, but just keep the camera and buy
a Dragon Weapon when it is in Store, (which has good deals now like the scarlet dragon).

 

[Gunleik Groven]

Or it's like when ARRI releases new Alexas with essentially the same sensor, but where everything around it is new and actually makes it better.

 

[sam karr]

Or it's like when ARRI releases new Alexas with essentially the same sensor, but where everything around it is new and actually makes it better.

But the dragon was supposed to be perfect already. Then there was the lowlight, grain and DR discussions and the OLPF "rubber patch" showing up. I'm a bit afraid that weapon will fix all that and that I'll have to pay for 2 upgrades to have the promised original characteristics, as I don't really care about prores, and the other things we saw so far.

 

[Gunleik Groven]

Hm...

I have no complaints about the Dragon. But I think that if you assume that "any" camera released the next 10 years is to be considered "ultimate", and the manufacturers packing down their R&D departments because "this is it"... In short: You're in for a bumpy ride.

In a while, I guess there are a few things that will settle, and make the new cameras less dramatic, but I think RED rethinking the body-design and also giving the internals more power (independently of a bigger sensor area) is only good.

Whether I "need" the weapon or not... is a different story. That a rethink of the body and connectors and general hardware functionality of the Epic body could lead to some good outcomes (also outside the prores option)... I don't doubt that at all.

Epic was created when 3D-rigs was the name of the game. Now gimballs and direct human interaction is (even) more important.

Bu seriously, do u think Jim and Jarred and Brent and all the developers were ready to "call it a day" when the Dragon was released.

It's like Tim Cook making the announcement last fall that:

Hey guys. iPhone 5s is the ultimate phone (like we told you last year), nothing new can be achieved. This is the end of the line. Now I move to the Caribbean and enjoy my well funded time as a pensioner.

Right?

 

[sam karr]

But the dragon is a new camera. I mean most people just got it super recently.

 

[Gunleik Groven]

But the dragon is a new camera. I mean most people just got it super recently.

Yes. It's pretty new. I shot it first time august2013, and got it November same year. Which makes me a pretty early adopter, I guess.

Now... How many "new cams" have let's say Sony and Arri released since then?

A few, right?

(even though the Alexas are based on the same core tech and on upgrade programmes of that tech for existing customers.)

If RED wants to stay competitive (which I am pretty sure is on their roadmap), I'd be surprised if they didn't start on the next camera allready before becoming sober after the Champagne celebration of the release of Dragon.

OTOH Epic and Scarlet Dragon are current and supported cameras for a long while still.

 

[sam karr]

Yes. It's pretty new. I shot it first time august2013, and got it November same year. Which makes me a pretty early adopter, I guess.

Now... How many "new cams" have let's say Sony and Arri released since then?

A few, right?

(even though the Alexas are based on the same core tech and on upgrade programmes of that tech for existing customers.)

If RED wants to stay competitive (which I am pretty sure is on their roadmap), I'd be surprised if they didn't start on the next camera allready before becoming sober after the Champagne celebration of the release of Dragon.

OTOH Epic and Scarlet Dragon are current and supported cameras for a long while still.

One problem with Red are the announcements. They announce a new product while most people just get their hands on the previous one. Then they announce a price that is lower than the final price. I can understand that some people feel disappointed. You get a new camera and the announcement makes it obsolete.
Dragon was announced with crazy lowlight and DR characteristics. I paid 10000€ to upgrade my scarlet. More than announced initially. My scarlet-x image was less noisy. I don't see a revolution in lowlight. And I have to change the OLPF depending on what I shoot. Not really what was announced. Now if I want to get what was announced I will probably have to upgrade, pay for minimags, pay for different modules. I'm afraid it will be out of reach for most scarlet dragon owners. I'm not sure it was a good idea to push people to upgrade to scarlet dragon before nab without telling them what will happen pricewise, what price range they should expect. It will obviously be more than the dragon upgrade price with the minimag tech and all the built-in modules we see on the pictures.

 

[Gunleik Groven]

If I remember the announced difference between Dragon and MX, it was 1,5+ stop more in the top, and "about a stop" more in the bottom. That is pretty close to my findngs on the original Dragon release....

And none of those stops but rather the color rendering, was the reason for me to upgrade. And I think I have consistently said so...

 

[Phil Holland]

Fascinating thread.

But the dragon was supposed to be perfect already. Then there was the lowlight, grain and DR discussions and the OLPF "rubber patch" showing up. I'm a bit afraid that weapon will fix all that and that I'll have to pay for 2 upgrades to have the promised original characteristics, as I don't really care about prores, and the other things we saw so far.

Sam, here's some words from Jarred:

Remember Weapon is still a Dragon... it sits at the top of the Dragon Family. Scarlet Dragon, Epic Dragon, Weapon Dragon.

For everybody else, let me just play hypothetical hippopotamus here for a minute.

What if every 2 to 3 years RED just simply released a new camera without the upgrade paths being offered?

Would you prefer to drop about $50,000 every 2 to 3 years on a new body? It would still be more affordable than some options in the digital cinema camera market, but you know....... It seems to work for other manufacturers. Is this a more interesting path? Do any of those options shoot 5K? 6K? Have larger than S35 coverage? Just curious.

A couple of other thoughts. One thing I find interesting is that not one camera RED has released has become outdated in it's abilities. There's still RED One's shooting out there. Mysterium-X is a popular sensor/camera in Epic and Scarlet. Dragon has been the next step with various color science, IR cutting, resolution improvements. Thus far I wouldn't describe anything RED has released as "devaluing" the previous camera. Especially considering the general timelines. Because it could have just been, you know, a new camera to buy rather than an upgrade for some. Hell, I know folks who chose to just buy new brains each time because they hit their ROI and it made sense to them anyways.

I mean I know what the "other way" is. It costs a chunk of money really. I digress.

A note. That 3K for $3K thing? Nobody has really forgotten about that. In my mind RED ditching that concept was one of the smartest moves RED ever made, despite the R&D and expense. Scarlet Mysterium-X was/is a very important move.

One more note, because I'm typing. It is actually an advantage for RED shooters that the "major competition" isn't actually a 4K camera, though it sounds like something higher resolution is coming. That puts RED cameras mainly up against 2 or 3 brands at the moment in terms of features, image quality, and performance. Everything falls then in the $30-$60K realm for basic shooting packages.

Okay, just one more. Modularity. I know, I know. AKS and modules are add ons. Some have been cross-compatible with various different RED DSMC cameras along the way and plenty of folks are using 3rd party AKS on RED cameras as well. But it is interesting to note, that nearly every other manufacturer has taken a very "inspired" design note from RED's smaller brain concept.

In many ways RED is actually paving the road on a few of these fronts. It's up to you if they make sense to you. It has for me. Otherwise I would have spent in the realm of $200-$300K at this point considering other options to fit my shooting needs.

With Weapon on the horizon and much of what has been leaked thus far, you should be able to tell that RED has also been listening. If you are Dragon owner and you're not ready to upgrade immediately, don't worry, you'll have time. Mysterium-X people out there have to make the real decision at this point as the sensor and general technology has existed since 2010/2011 for Epic and Scarlet owners respectively. It's 2015 and by the time Weapon upgrades start we'll be even closer to 2016. In my personal opinion Mysterium-X has had some really long lasting legs.

NAB will present a few interesting options for some, though on the horizon still no direct competition. There are cameras for different markets at this point. Which also means different features and price brackets as well.

 

[Brad Webb]

I think the real issue here isn't about the economics or prices of the camera, but the speed at which Red is producing upgrades.

The Red One came out in 2007. The MX sensor came out in 2010. That's about 3 years to use and pay off that initial investment.

The Epic came out in 2012. Again, you had 2 years to pay off that investment before there was an upgrade.

The Dragon was ready in 2013. So you had 1 year to upgrade.

Now Weapon will be out in 2015. So you've had 2 years with your Dragon.

Red One to Epic - 5 years - $23,205
Epic to Weapon - 3 years - $20,045 + Weapon upgrade

So...

In 2007 I bought a RED ONE with a 4K Mysterium sensor for $17,500. At that time, just for reference, a Sony F23 (2/3" 1080P sensor) was $175K. Plus SR (RGB) recorder.

In 2010 I upgraded to the 5K Mysterium-X sensor for $5750 . I am now in for a total of $23,250.

In 2012 I traded in my RED ONE (credit value $17,500) for a $28,000 EPIC M-X package. I am now in for a total of $33,750.

In 2013 I upgraded my EPIC M-X to the 6K Dragon sensor for $9500 . I am now in for a total of $43,250.

Soon... I will be able to trade in my EPIC Dragon for Weapon. God only knows what that means...

This is Obsolescence Obsolete. As promised.

The Hobbit. Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Ridley Scott. David Fincher. You.

Jim

 

[Mark Whatmore]

It's an interesting bit of maths and there are many ways of looking at it; I think it's been a great deal, $ 43K we've had 3 superb cameras, all better than anything we could have access to before. I'm no complaining.

 

[Gunleik Groven]

When in doubt, ask Dr Phil...

 

[Detlev Eller]

Yes. It's pretty new. I shot it first time august2013, and got it November same year. Which makes me a pretty early adopter, I guess.

i was there. ... ))

 

[Gunleik Groven]

i was there. ... ))

Yup!

Very much so!

 

[sergio arguello]

I didn't qualify if it was a good or bad deal, simply calling for patience. From R1 to Epic was really a new camera, but I don't see it this time around, it is a rehousing
fixing lay out issues, which is a good thing. I just think that one may consider not to upgrade an MX to Dragon to get to Weapon, but just keep the camera and buy
a Dragon Weapon when it is in Store, (which has good deals now like the scarlet dragon).

Usually "cat and mouse game" leads one to believe you quantified it as a bad deal, as the mouse would put it! And as for the upgrade well if weapon does 450fps at 2k or 3k then you have no need for phantom now you have 1 camera with two functions. So its you Rolf that should be patient for 3 weeks till you have, we all have a better understanding of whats being offered.

 

[Rolf Kestermann]

The good or bad deal referred to the monetary outlay, the mouse and cat game refers to the marketing tease. I was about to upgrade to Dragon when Weapon was announced.
That actually turned me off. I have no issues with the value of the cameras, but my next Red will need to be in the Store to be purchased with a price tag on it.

 

[Guillaume Depestele]

Fascinating thread.

Agreed.

As a " young " man in the field (Got my first Red One in 2012, I was 21 and so happy to have a great toy at the one month of VFX work price), I just wanted to add that as easy it is to jump in the Red train (One year later I could afford the Scarlet, and one more year later the Scarlet Dragon and maybe in 1.5 year finally the top of the chain Weapon ?), the speed/price of upgrade doesn't seems to high (Especially for people shooting - let's say - 10 days a month) to keep up the good gear.

The good or bad deal referred to the monetary outlay, the mouse and cat game refers to the marketing tease.

This marketing tease is the thing in my opinion that make the brand, and the brand itself sells a lot my camera to clients (Maybe more the camera than the operator ? Haha, this is another subject).

 

[Robert Ruffo New]

the "risk" of owning RED is much lower than with other companies (within the "top league"), as per the above example... and (AFAIK) with the F65 there is no trade-in program, so that u could hope that jumping on the next big Sony cam may bring u some of ur money back (if Sony does not make the same mistakes again)... no, u gotta buy a new cam.

Renting vs. owning, depends. For somebody like u who's mastered the MX, when u rent the cam, u know what u're doing and the cam hasn't changed. But for newbies, who don't know the cam, they gotta know how to shoot the cam (any cam for that matter) so owning is great if u wanna learn the cam and make lots of workflow test runs: production and post-production... Scarlet is a great entry line... also, renting always adds 2 days - 1 to rent and 1 to bring back...

I don't think the rental biz will go away... peeps always wanna shoot on the latest cam, rental houses will have them... the big Arri is so expensive, almost nobody will own them except rental houses... and at the end of the life-cycle they still get a chunk back when they sell the cam, so they won't lose out... also, the service and maintenance of (good) rental houses is very important to a lot of productions.

Good point. Learning and practice days can add up to a lot of rental days, in which case owning is worth it. Then again many rental companies will let you come in and shoot tests of new cameras for free, but its' not the same as day after day, going out there and practicing and then seeing limits on the edit/color suite.