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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Nov 3rd Scarlet Prediction

Adam Palmer said:
I know everyone hates predictions (even in a prediction thread hehe) but its a slow day at work and heres my bet on why I think Scarlet will be interchangeable at a 7K or below price point:

Firstly, less than a month ago Ted was caught on camera stating that there was a problem with a component in the fixed lens system (due to the Japan disaster): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wBUqcO6aA

Secondly, the Epic-s Has been taken down from the road map (the most affordable interchangeable RED Camera option): http://nofilmschool.com/2011/09/red-drops-epic-s-from-roadmap/

Thirdly, in the RED store the RED pro primes are ticked as compatible with scarlet (even though this could be unfounded it seems bit strange that they would not un-tick them if it had fixed lens): http://www.red.com/store/lenses/product/red-pro-prime-18mm-t18-i-bt

Fourthly, the rumours coming out of Canon (even though I'm sure RED already knows whats going to go down) are that they are producing a hi-res video camera that is interchangeable (supposedly with EF or PL): http://www.canonrumors.com/2011/09/new-video-camera-information-cr1/

All these points lead ME to believe that RED is going to launch the Scarlet with an interchangeable mount (most likely options would be either PL or Canon).
Click to expand...


Speculation is fun but not to be taken too seriously. A few counters to your points:

First, problems with supply of a lens component are old news - been talked about since shortly after the earthquake. It's not unreasonable to assume Ted was talking about past problems which have been solved.

Second, EPIC-S status has been... ambiguous... but Jim first said it was hoped to be in production during 'fall', then more recently and more ambiguously 'the camera you want by the end of the year' or words to that effect. I don't think a 2/3" chip would be 'the camera you [EPIC-S people] want'...

Third, I believe Jim or Jarred said a PL adapter would be available for Scarlet Removable - which would explain the 'compatible'. It already exists in prototype form; RED have posted footage (the lion?) shot with Scarlet using a RPP.

Fourth, a 2/3" camera that takes PL or EF is of dubious utility due to the focal length multiplication factor: the one thing that IS clear is that for RED, the future is DSMC - and stills guys especially need to go ultra-wide at times. Or often, in my case! If the Canon rumors are true, it sounds more like a wannabe EPIC-X or EPIC-S competitor... FSSVO 'competitor' ;-)

Fifth, the Scarlet shown on the RED Store sign-up page is the Fixed. Now that *could* be purposeful misdirection, but I doubt it.


I think, whatever is put on sale on the 3rd, it will include the Fixed - perhaps with some significant changes from the prototype, but it will be the Fixed. And unless the price has skyrocketed, I'm buying!

Mike
 
Terry VerHaar said:
Please point me to anything from RED that specifically said an Epic-S was to be $12K. Also, where was it said that Epic-S was cancelled? (Not mentioning it doesn't qualify for assuming cancellation.)
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Jim said it here:

Jannard said:
I know many of you are waiting to hear what is happening on the EPIC-S front. While I still don't have final details from the engineers, here is what we know now.

. . .

5. Price has risen due to the chassis and HDRx change/additions. Expect somewhere in the neighborhood of $12K. Package prices will be posted as soon as we are sure what they will be. We will not post another "interim" price structure in the meantime. Next price posting will be final.

. . .

Jim
Click to expand...

Of course, one could quibble and say, "'neighborhood of $12K' could mean anything from $10k to $15K." OK, but Jim's statement is about as close to a price projection on an unreleased product as he's gotten.
 
Terry VerHaar said:
And it's been scrutinized and discussed ad nauseam since. Could have been an oversight, could have been intentional. Personally, I think it was the former. Jim seems to post here in REDuser in a rather off-the-cuff manner. Only he knows for sure.
Click to expand...
You may be right, except that Jim did it twice. Plus, when asked about Epic-S, he responded, "The camera you want is at the end of the year." He could have said something to the effect "Yeah, Epic-S will be released shortly after Scarlet." But he didn't. The statement seemed intentionally cryptic and very carefully worded.
 
Denis Haineault said:
The only thing sure is that the better Canon's announcement is, the better RED's will be.
Click to expand...
How do you figure that? Jim said he had no idea what Canon would announce. He seems to believe Canon will announce one or more cameras -- otherwise, the "head to head" part wouldn't apply.
 
Mike 'Fireman' Ross said:
Speculation is fun but not to be taken too seriously. A few counters to your points:

First, problems with supply of a lens component are old news - been talked about since shortly after the earthquake. It's not unreasonable to assume Ted was talking about past problems which have been solved.

Second, EPIC-S status has been... ambiguous... but Jim first said it was hoped to be in production during 'fall', then more recently and more ambiguously 'the camera you want by the end of the year' or words to that effect. I don't think a 2/3" chip would be 'the camera you [EPIC-S people] want'...

Third, I believe Jim or Jarred said a PL adapter would be available for Scarlet Removable - which would explain the 'compatible'. It already exists in prototype form; RED have posted footage (the lion?) shot with Scarlet using a RPP.

Fourth, a 2/3" camera that takes PL or EF is of dubious utility due to the focal length multiplication factor: the one thing that IS clear is that for RED, the future is DSMC - and stills guys especially need to go ultra-wide at times. Or often, in my case! If the Canon rumors are true, it sounds more like a wannabe EPIC-X or EPIC-S competitor... FSSVO 'competitor' ;-)

Fifth, the Scarlet shown on the RED Store sign-up page is the Fixed. Now that *could* be purposeful misdirection, but I doubt it.


I think, whatever is put on sale on the 3rd, it will include the Fixed - perhaps with some significant changes from the prototype, but it will be the Fixed. And unless the price has skyrocketed, I'm buying!

Mike
Click to expand...

Thank you, that was great. Just when i think i cant get more excited... information prevails haha
 
Lawrence Bansbach said:
You may be right, except that Jim did it twice. Plus, when asked about Epic-S, he responded, "The camera you want is at the end of the year." He could have said something to the effect "Yeah, Epic-S will be released shortly after Scarlet." But he didn't. The statement seemed intentionally cryptic and very carefully worded.
Click to expand...


One big puzzle, slowly coming together...nice info
 
Mike 'Fireman' Ross said:
I think, whatever is put on sale on the 3rd, it will include the Fixed - perhaps with some significant changes from the prototype, but it will be the Fixed. And unless the price has skyrocketed, I'm buying!

Mike
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info Mike TBH I would prefer a rough and ready to shoot fixed rather than interchangeable atm (as long as the price is right)!
 
Mike 'Fireman' Ross said:
Speculation is fun but not to be taken too seriously. A few counters to your points:

First, problems with supply of a lens component are old news - been talked about since shortly after the earthquake. It's not unreasonable to assume Ted was talking about past problems which have been solved.

Second, EPIC-S status has been... ambiguous... but Jim first said it was hoped to be in production during 'fall', then more recently and more ambiguously 'the camera you want by the end of the year' or words to that effect. I don't think a 2/3" chip would be 'the camera you [EPIC-S people] want'...

Third, I believe Jim or Jarred said a PL adapter would be available for Scarlet Removable - which would explain the 'compatible'. It already exists in prototype form; RED have posted footage (the lion?) shot with Scarlet using a RPP.

Fourth, a 2/3" camera that takes PL or EF is of dubious utility due to the focal length multiplication factor: the one thing that IS clear is that for RED, the future is DSMC - and stills guys especially need to go ultra-wide at times. Or often, in my case! If the Canon rumors are true, it sounds more like a wannabe EPIC-X or EPIC-S competitor... FSSVO 'competitor' ;-)

Fifth, the Scarlet shown on the RED Store sign-up page is the Fixed. Now that *could* be purposeful misdirection, but I doubt it.


I think, whatever is put on sale on the 3rd, it will include the Fixed - perhaps with some significant changes from the prototype, but it will be the Fixed. And unless the price has skyrocketed, I'm buying!

Mike
Click to expand...

Since we still have 6 days to go, we can have some fun until then. I'll stir the waters on the other side.
I really much liked the nice and logical presentation of the arguments, but here is one of mine.
If the Nov3rd Scarlet ends up 2/3" with fixed lense why would Jim tell us (in the Change thread) not to be frustrated with changes - as they always bring improvements.
My priority Scarlet feature is 120 fps @3K - I hope this will not decrease. If it does, there's a HD HERO 2 - 120fps @ WVGA :rofl:
 
Lawrence Bansbach said:
How do you figure that? Jim said he had no idea what Canon would announce. He seems to believe Canon will announce one or more cameras -- otherwise, the "head to head" part wouldn't apply.
Click to expand...

Bottom line is that we don't know what RED or Canon will announce.

Now to answer your question, my reasoning is based on several posts implying direct competition with Canon. One example is the following:

http://reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?63669-SCARLET....&p=825578&highlight=#post825578
Canon announces... we announce. The best one wins.

Jim
Click to expand...

It seems pretty logical to me that RED would have some flexibility as far as what they will announce on the 3rd. Should Canon's announcement be more competitive than anticipated, RED can (and very likely will) make a quick adjustment to their own announcement.

I'm pretty sure there are a few alternate announcements on Jim's desk ready to be used, should the need arise.

And that's all I meant by "The only thing sure is that the better Canon's announcement is, the better RED's will be."
 
Denis Haineault said:
Bottom line is that we don't know what RED or Canon will announce.

Now to answer your question, my reasoning is based on several posts implying direct competition with Canon. One example is the following:

http://reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?63669-SCARLET....&p=825578&highlight=#post825578


It seems pretty logical to me that RED would have some flexibility as far as what they will announce on the 3rd. Should Canon's announcement be more competitive than anticipated, RED can (and very likely will) make a quick adjustment to their own announcement.

I'm pretty sure there are a few alternate announcements on Jim's desk ready to be used, should the need arise.

And that's all I meant by "The only thing sure is that the better Canon's announcement is, the better RED's will be."
Click to expand...
Red may have some flexibility, but whatever Canon announces, and by your reasoning I must assume they will announce first, Red will announce the best they can do. They aren't just about beating the competition, but about continually beating themselves -- that is, offering the best products at the best prices they can, while remaining a viable company.
 
Carey Lee Coffey said:
One thing is for certain, if there is an Epic-S/Scarlet S35 option, there's no way in hell it will be released on November 3rd before Epic-X stage 3 is even out.
Click to expand...

untrue. I think if scarlet is S35 all scarlets will be, I think they would do away with 2/3 " sensor... and then it would be fixed lens model and interchangable. thats it. unless its a difference between a 3k option and a 4k option
 
Mike 'Fireman' Ross said:
there are probably quite a few more standard CF cards that would work perfectly well, with appropriate firmware tweaks.
Click to expand...

I'm sure there are, but there is no Scarlet compatible CF module available, and it looks like CF adapter for the SSD unit is either still in development, but most likely was dropped.
 
FrankApollonio said:
untrue. I think if scarlet is S35 all scarlets will be, I think they would do away with 2/3 " sensor... and then it would be fixed lens model and interchangable. thats it. unless its a difference between a 3k option and a 4k option
Click to expand...

Untrue? People waiting in line for an Epic-X would raise hell if Red released an S35 camera to the masses while they were still waiting for theirs. There might be an S35 Scarlet in the works, but that won't come out until long, probably a year or more, after Scarlet 2/3 is released.
 
Adam Palmer said:
I know everyone hates predictions (even in a prediction thread hehe) but its a slow day at work and heres my bet on why I think Scarlet will be interchangeable at a 7K or below price point:

Firstly, less than a month ago Ted was caught on camera stating that there was a problem with a component in the fixed lens system (due to the Japan disaster): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wBUqcO6aA

Secondly, the Epic-s Has been taken down from the road map (the most affordable interchangeable RED Camera option): http://nofilmschool.com/2011/09/red-drops-epic-s-from-roadmap/

Thirdly, in the RED store the RED pro primes are ticked as compatible with scarlet (even though this could be unfounded it seems bit strange that they would not un-tick them if it had fixed lens): http://www.red.com/store/lenses/product/red-pro-prime-18mm-t18-i-bt

Fourthly, the rumours coming out of Canon (even though I'm sure RED already knows whats going to go down) are that they are producing a hi-res video camera that is interchangeable (supposedly with EF or PL): http://www.canonrumors.com/2011/09/new-video-camera-information-cr1/

All these points lead ME to believe that RED is going to launch the Scarlet with an interchangeable mount (most likely options would be either PL or Canon). The reason I think that the camera will be 7K or below is strictly to do with Ted's comments just a few months ago and the fact that Canon will most likely adopt a similar price point to capture the DSLR crowd which desperately need an upgrade. Also, I'm not an expert on what it costs to make a camera, but surely getting rid of the lens would reduce the cost of the body (as your basically not including a lens in the kit) and would mean that a fully "ready to shoot kit" could be launched and consumers could use the lenses they already have (or buy one at a later date).

Another important fact to bear in mind would be that it is most likely that Canon would release a camera that is interchangeable. No matter how superior the image quality of the Scarlet, some users would still opt for the ability to change lens to achieve the look they want. Although I personally would opt for a Fixed RED Scarlet over an interchangeable Canon, I can see why RED would want to completely dominate the market (and rightly so).

Finally, I was always confused with the Epic-S, purely because (and call me up if im wrong) I thought it would be odd to release a "cheap" Epic. This to me doesn't sound like good business sense because it would impact on Epic-X sales. Surely adopting a lower res interchangeable camera would be the best compromise?

Anyway whatever happens its going to be Epic... I mean Scarlet (sorry that has been over used in this forum lol).

P.S and before anyone wants to post it... WAIT TILL NOVEMBER 3RD
Click to expand...

I kind of thought the same when I heard them talking like that. The RED Pro lenses have always had the Scarlet checked as far back as I can remember. I have a hard time imagining many waiting for the Scarlet can afford RED Pro lenses though. I might beable to get one. This is where I would hope you have the choice between PL or EF mount perhaps...
 
I think quite a lot of us might be over estimating Canon. If making an interchangeable 4k S35 camera, shooting RAW, with acceptable dynamic range, at a price point similar to the suggested 6-7k of RED's was easy, than they would have done it already. In fact the only 3rd party from RED doing anything in the same area is Sony. I think most likely the Canon camera will have 1 major drawback (my guess would be H.264 or inadequate dynamic range).
 
There was a conference in Denver where a Canon rep was talking about one of the Canon cameras being released and mentioned it was being put in the market to take place of those missing an EX1. Button's are even strategically placed to make the transition easier.
 
Carey Lee Coffey said:
Untrue? People waiting in line for an Epic-X would raise hell if Red released an S35 camera to the masses while they were still waiting for theirs. There might be an S35 Scarlet in the works, but that won't come out until long, probably a year or more, after Scarlet 2/3 is released.
Click to expand...

we will see, wont we
 
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