New Epic X Price Prediction

[Bob Gundu]

This is how RED is figuring out the upgrade program:

 

[Tim Whitcomb]

his is how RED is figuring out the upgrade program:

Alas! some levity! well played Bob Gundu!

 

[Lee Saxon]

Sony make their announcements
Red responds competively and agressively with new prices...

I don't think so. Sony's F65 is already their Epic competitor. I think their announcement this week is going to be a C500 competitor. The C500 itself didn't scare Red, so I don't expect a C500 competitor to either.

 

[Gavin Greenwalt]

curious where you came up with this "fact"... or "theory" ??

They pretty much draw the same power. They pretty much weigh the same. They are the exact same size and because RED said so.

If they had significantly less components they would weigh a lot less and draw a lot less power.

ASICs that weren't fast enough for EPIC… just became a gold mine for Scarlet.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Personally, I would be ecstatic if I could upgrade my Scarlet to

- shoot 5K at 24 fps
- shoot 4K at 48 fps/24 fps HDRx
- shoot 3K at 120 fps

(etc.)

If you throw in an extra stop or so of dynamic range and clean up the noise a little, while continuing to improve color science, power management and add features, I'd be forever grateful.

If that were all done for $3K or less, I think I'd feel pertty good about it.

:smiley:

 

[Zach Swena]

Well here is what we know for sure:

RED has figured out how to produce the cameras for much less.

That means we can continue to charge the same for an EPIC (and now make an obscene amount of profit) or lower the price.

"An obscene amount of profit" are pretty strong words. Even so, don’t expect epic’s price to fall close to the current scarlet price. In relation to the BT scarlet, Jim said the new price of epic would be

a significantly higher investment.

I would take that to mean at least 2 times the BT Scarlet price which puts Epic at least $14k. Originally epic was supposed to cost $28k, so that seems kind of low.

However Jim claimed,

anyone who doesn't own an EPIC will after Nov. 1st.

This makes me wonder if something close to the original R1 price would be reasonable. It would also be good to keep in mind that they still have to put

all those 18,000 parts into such a small package.

Thus it seems like under $18k would be unlikely. There still needs to be some room for Scarlet in the mix. Originally epic was slated for a price of $28k, so considering all of the statements made by RED it seems safe to assume that the price will be at or less then that.

To me it seems likely we will see Epic MX body only somewhere in the range of $18k-$28k

Epic equipped with Dragon will be north of $28k and probably closer to the current price of $34.5k due to a requirement for a new ASIC. It should, however feature higher frame rates at 5k, and similar frame rates at 6k based on the need for a new ASIC.

Dragon has actually gotten more expensive to make because we needed to respin the ASIC to go along with the recent improvements of the sensor...

Now on to Scarlet:
Jim said he would expect the discount

across the lineup...

and later Jarred clarified,

Heh heh heh.... Jim didn't mean across everything we make. Just Camera Brains.

Epic probably payed most of the NRE and development cost, and I would expect their margins on Scarlet to be fairly low, however the S35 scarlet was originally slated for a $7k price tag before the ASIC issues came to bear on the price. That combined with the BT scarlet deal makes a price of $7k seem like a possibility. Although Jarred’s characterization of the BT as a Scarlet Deal of a Lifetime makes me think this price is more of a lower bound.

.

The picture for scarlet looks extremely interesting when you consider the following:

I can tell you right now Scarlet, as it sits , cannot handle the Dragon.

But as it sits, neither can the Epic.

One way or another we will make sure Scarlet customers have a pathway to the Dragon.

It is a complicated problem, but a good problem to have.

So Epic requires a new ASIC also, so what are they going to do with all of the old epic chips? It seems like they could be used in a Scarlet upgrade program. This would enable the current Scarlets to shoot the same frame rate as the current epic X, for an upgrade price of course. If there is the possibility of using the old epic ASIC with Dragon at lower frame rates, then it could be an option. RED has not said anything about an option like this however.

From this logic I would expect:

Reduced Scarlet price: $7k-$10k body only

Scarlet Epic ASIC upgrade $5k (stab in the dark)

Scarlet Dragon upgrade $6-10k with 5k 30fps – Either with low binning 2nd gen ASIC or old epic ASIC

Scarlet Dragon should ideally cost less than the current price so it doesn’t double the cost of the camera, because at that point, you might as well buy a new Dragon equipped scarlet as it will most likely cost <$15k for the body after both increased cost of new components and assembly efficiencies are taken in to account.

Whatever happens it will surely shake things up if Jim’s predictions come true. It would be awesome though if they could make up for the 3k for $3k debacle and go a 5k for $5k Scarlet, I think that is a few years out still though.

 

[Chris Jordan]

Red does not HAVE to do anything. I am with Terry Verhaar, Anyone reading negativity into this really isnt paying attention or had no business buying a camera in the first place. Am I a genius for selling BOTH my EPIC X last January when I saw Scarlet killing the rental market? I look like it now... but that killed me to do.

I PAID A $10,000 PREMIUM to jump the line on EPiC-X in 2010. then Red came out with the EPIC_M... and sold 1000 cameras ahead of me. did Red screw me? Hell no.

Am I stoked about the price cut as I literally have been building my $50K cart? hell YES! Timing is everything...

Secondly. I hope SHawn Nelson is Guess is RIGHT !! But no way Epic X with TI PL Mount and SSD Module is under $20K. That would be awesome though and Id buy 2.

Red ONE MX rented so fast I made doubled my investment. Epic rented so slow I sold them as soon as Scarlet was announced. I bought a Scarlet and HATED it and sold that too.

I wish Scarlet would die an ignobale death. The RED ONE is by far a superior camera and value and I hope to hell Terry is right in that Scarlet NEVER gets the Dragon sensor. EPIC is and should be EPIC!

Lol thank you for this, it made my day

 

[Björn Benckert]

http://www.ebay.com/itm/EPIC-X-RED-...918?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3ccbf912ee

 

[Paul Harb]

brilliant!

 

[Noel R.]

http://www.ebay.com/itm/EPIC-X-RED-...918?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3ccbf912ee

Ha ha ha, he should of posted that last week. On another note, why do some people think there will be no upgrade path for Scarlet to Dragon? Wouldn't this render the Scarlet obsolete?

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Ha ha ha, he should of posted that last week. On another note, why do some people think there will be no upgrade path for Scarlet to Dragon? Wouldn't this render the Scarlet obsolete?

No - it would just make Scarlet not upgradeable to Dragon. Doesn't make it "not upgradeable."

 

[Noel R.]

No - it would just make Scarlet not upgradeable to Dragon. Doesn't make it "not upgradeable."

I guess I meant more in the lines of whether or not there were any hints that may have led someone to think that the Scarlet would not have a path to Dragon, last word I read was yes but pricing was not fixed, did I miss something?

 

[Terry VerHaar]

The question is really if a Scarlet can be brought all the way up to the specs of Dragon and, if so, can it be done cost effectively. All we know about the thing called Dragon is that it is 6K rez, a sensor size of approximately 30 x 16 mm, and will give a couple more stops of dynamic range. The rest is unknown to us mere mortals. There has been no report from RED what a Scarlet Dragon might look like - or if there even will be a such a "second tier" Dragon.

So, if Scarlet has to get brought all the way to the level of THE Dragon - what will that process entail and can it be made cheaper than just replacing the camera entirely. Because if a Dragon is $30K and it costs $28K to upgrade a Scarlet, is it worth it?

OTOH, if there is to be a second level Dragon, the cost of getting Scarlet to that level is, obviously, entirely depeendent on what "that level" actually is. We don't know that and even Jarred's comment from a couple days ago seems to hint that RED isn't quite sure yet either.

So, we wait in excited anticipation...

 

[Noel R.]

Actually I found Jarred's last comment regarding Scarlet upgrading to Dragon. "One way or another we will make sure Scarlet customers have a pathway to the Dragon." This was posted yesterday.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Yes - and, to me, implicitly that still begs the question of whether there is only THE Dragon or multiple Dragons.

 

[Noel R.]

Yes - and, to me, implicitly that still begs the question of whether there is only THE Dragon or multiple Dragons.

Either way I think it will be a good deal. I can understand some people's frustration with the price drop especially in the rental community, but with the Dragon I believe we'll have the best Camera on the planet (this time uncontested). It's coming down to the camera just being another tool, and it's the artist that has to prove their worth.

 

[Will Keir]

Big Smiley Face.

This is how RED is figuring out the upgrade program:

 

[Jack Allred]

My guess:
At least a 10K price drop. At most a 50% price drop.
$17k-$25k range for Epic brain.

It is a daring and unconventional method in the industry, but hey... isn't that what we like about RED?

 

[Andrew Allsbury]

My Guess:
Scarlet-X ~ $7,500*
Epic-X ~ $17,500*
Epic-D ~ $25,000*
*Brain Only

Pretty good competition for:
Sony F3 ~ $13,000*
Sony F5 ~ $18,000*
Sony F55 ~ $50,000*
Sony F65 ~ $65,000*
*Does not include external recorder for Raw/4k capability (Approx. $10k+)

This would be awesome...I guess we will see tomorow!

 

[egon touste]

I derived mine with an Algorithm. It doesn't mean my algorithm was correct though

.. your thread starts "I predict.." .. i think someone is scared to own up to their own predictions? ..stop hiding behind algorithms