MX Price Drop?

[BrendanLeahy]

Any word (or guesses) on: -when Scarlet-X to Epic-X-MX will stop?-when MX prices will drop?-when MX cameras might be pulled from the stores/only sold as "battle-tested"?I have an Epic-Dragon, so I'm good for the Weapon upgrade path. However, I still have a Scarlet I'm looking to just upgrade to Epic-X-MX, but I'm really concerned after I do, they'll drop the pricing and it'll be a world + wallet of pain. What has history shown us?

 

[Terry VerHaar]

I don't know... no one can tell the future, especially with RED, but I am thinking the Epic-X may not drop in price but, rather, just fade away. It's not as if they have dozens of them sitting on a shelf somewhere that they need to liquidate. The introduction of Weapon, and the fact that Dragon is the only upgrade path, suggests they will keep Scarlet Dragon for awhile, probably at the same $14,500 (just my guess) as the entry level. I also see them keeping Epic Dragon for quite awhile as well, since it would appear to be a nice path up to Weapon. Maybe they'll drop that price a bit, at some point.

Right now, if I had a Scarlet (and I do!), I'd be upgrading it to Scarlet Dragon (and I am!). And I would do it before NAB (which I will!) to procure the best deal for the future upgrade. I was originally planning to get to Epic Dragon via the Scarlet Epic-X trade-in, but I am glad I didn't as that would have forced another expensive upgrade that I wouldn't yet be prepared for. Things tend to work out.

 

[Mike P.]

It has shown us that it'll come really late (fall 2016?), but be a massive discount... Of course I'm referring to R1mx being sold for $4k with your choice of media module (CF or SSD)... Went from $17500 retail to BT at $4k, so maybe BT Epics will be the same... But yeah, still more than a year off (from standalone Weapon shipping) most likely.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

I was going to say I thought the R1s were still $25K right up until they went BT. But, it's all so hazy now.

 

[D Fuller]

I was going to say I thought the R1s were still $25K right up until they went BT. But, it's all so hazy now.

Maybe with a full set of AKS, but not the body. It was much less by then.

 

[Phil Holland]

Any word (or guesses) on: -when Scarlet-X to Epic-X-MX will stop?-when MX prices will drop?-when MX cameras might be pulled from the stores/only sold as "battle-tested"?I have an Epic-Dragon, so I'm good for the Weapon upgrade path. However, I still have a Scarlet I'm looking to just upgrade to Epic-X-MX, but I'm really concerned after I do, they'll drop the pricing and it'll be a world + wallet of pain. What has history shown us?

I have a sneaky suspicion that around Summer 2015 (June-ish) that the Scarlet-X to Epic Mysterium-X upgrade path will stop. There's been no official word, but since that's when the Mysterium-X to Dragon upgrade end date, there's likely a reason to think this as well.

 

[Scott Crawley]

I want to say you are correct, or very nearly so.

My hope, my expectation is that MX will taper off and not drop like a stone.

Remember R1 to Epic was a sudden, one step change to an entirely different form factor and that move was completely subsidized by Red. They are not offering a full value trade this time, so relatively fewer people will be doing it. Epic/Scarlet MX to Epic/Scarlet Dragon to Weapon is a multi tiered path. If you were plotting out every DSMC owner on that graph the slope would be more gentle just by virtue of the fact that there are so many more steps. Therefore I don't see a glut of BT cams of any one type on the same order as we saw of R1's. Also, the user base is larger and the eco-system is both larger and more mature. That may mean those fewer units will be more readily absorbed than R1 was. All this could translate to buoyant prices.

I was going to say I thought the R1s were still $25K right up until they went BT. But, it's all so hazy now.

 

[Wil Wong]

Yeah I suspect that it's a question of inventory and by that, how much (hopefully not too much).

My guess:

1) There will be a Battle Tested fire sale first for Scarlets and Epics (from the Dragon upgrades and trade-ins).
OR depending on how much stock they have left of the Epic and Scarlets (if a Lot),
2) They may have a discount to get rid of all the NEW first, and then have an even lower price for Battle Tested cameras.

Now if they can convert un-bought New Epics and turn them into Dragons with little loss to unusable parts, this would be perfect for their supply chain.

They would also need to try and get rid of all the inventory of the old DSMC too. Having little to no stock before Weapon is introduce will be valuable to keeping them trim and profitable.

My business voice talking

 

[Sergio Perez]

I think we are looking at 1 year or 2 for this to happen.

 

[Karel Šimůnek]

I guess that MX will not drop that hard. I am not sure about Scarlet but Epix definitely not. There's no other camera that can do internal 5K RAW video at 100fps so I guess RED has no reason to cut the price on Epic. In 2 years maybe but not now I guess.

 

[Scott Crawley]

Yeah I suspect that it's a question of inventory and by that, how much (hopefully not too much).

They would also need to try and get rid of all the inventory of the old DSMC too. Having little to no stock before Weapon is introduce will be valuable to keeping them trim and profitable.

In case you missed this:

... Epic Dragon and Scarlet Dragon will remain in the line for quite some time.

So current DSMC accessories will not be liquidated. They just may keep producing new Scarlet/Epic Dragons until the second generation of Weapon, that incorporates a new sensor. That is what I took from Jarred's response, anyway.

 

[Scott Lamoreaux]

Will scarlet owners potentially be stuck not being able to upgrade at all if rumors are true about dragon upgrades ending and epic MX being phased out this year?

i planned on upgrading next January when I get some spare money for a particuLar big job.

 

[Scott Crawley]

Will scarlet owners potentially be stuck not being able to upgrade at all if rumors are true about dragon upgrades ending and epic MX being phased out this year?

i planned on upgrading next January when I get some spare money for a particuLar big job.

They are not rumors. MX to Dragon upgrades are scheduled to end in June last I read.

 

[Scott Lamoreaux]

So back to my question, if that is true and I don't upgrade I will be stuck with a Scarlet-X and no upgrade capability at all in the future?

 

[Mike P.]

I'd buy a BT Epic-X brain for $4k!!!...But I don't think it'll be June 2015; it'll be at least a year after *weapon-x* (or whatever they call weapon-vanilla-version) is readily available in the store, hence Summer/Fall 2016+ guesstimation.

And yes, the R1 was full retail up to the BT release, when they were removed from the store. ALSO, there's been no official word that upgrading from Mysterium to MX has stopped on the R1. Like I recall when DSMC came out, people were like, 'buh, I'm not gonna upgrade my R1 for $5750 when I can get a Scarlet for $9750' (or some such.) Though maybe that did stop at the BT release without the need for a formal announcement.

@Scott - yes, it seems so. Like Brendan said, first day of NAB, MX-to-Dragon will shoot up to $12,500 until Summer-ish, when they stop upgrading MX cameras entirely because they'll be "changing the assembly lines" to Dragon-to-Weapon upgrades. At $12,500 it'd be foolish to upgrade a Scarlet-X. For $2k more you get a new camera with a fresh warranty, and get to keep your Scarlet-X.

 

[Daniel Reed]

At $12,500 it'd be foolish to upgrade a Scarlet-X. For $2k more you get a new camera with a fresh warranty, and get to keep your Scarlet-X.

Or just sell it for 4~5K and consider that as a discount off a brand-new SD.

For you, it may make more sense to keep shoot'n that scarlet; save for a new weapon purchase down the road.
I imagine DSMC accessories and 18" mags are going to price-dip quite a bit this summer.
Maybe pickup a few things to carry you over for a couple years.
S-MX kits will still be worth $$$$ in a few years - used Red One Ms sell even today.
I'd wager a Scarlet-MX will continue to kick the @#$% out of any SLR/BM offerings for many years to come.

 

[George Butterfield]

Any word (or guesses) on: -when Scarlet-X to Epic-X-MX will stop?-when MX prices will drop?-when MX cameras might be pulled from the stores/only sold as "battle-tested"?I have an Epic-Dragon, so I'm good for the Weapon upgrade path. However, I still have a Scarlet I'm looking to just upgrade to Epic-X-MX, but I'm really concerned after I do, they'll drop the pricing and it'll be a world + wallet of pain. What has history shown us?

Prices will drop, Thirty years of buying electronics tells me that, Unless the US Dollar implodes and we have hyper-inflation.

 

[M.Halsell]

Price Reduction

Price Reduction

For those considering the price reduction strategy, it may a bit of a lottery approach to getting a new body. First off, the inventory of non-Dragon bodies will draw down to match weening demand. If and when there is a release of a reduced price or battle tested bodies, it will just a matter of hours before the entire inventory is depleted.

So the sole consideration is not that prices will not fall, but will you be quick or lucky enough to catch a deal out of the sky before all are sold. So if your business or production needs are a known quantity, it might be prudent to get in the upgrade que.