Mad Dash for Scarlet

[Carlos Dueñas]

It will be great to know Red's opinion..

It will be great to know Red's opinion..

It will be great to know what is Red's opinion about this, more than knowing release dates, what are the chances (for real) of getting a Scarlet from Red, and not buying it from somebody else on ebay for almost the double, because they got 20 cameras on day 1.

The great thing about the Scarlet its that people that cannot afford Red1-Epic-F35 etc, can really own a proper Digital Cinema Camera, and to "own" a lovely piece of craftmanship like this one its so WOW! Nothing compares to that feeling.
Because you can allways rent from the people who allready own a Red1, dont you? :smilewinkgrin:

 

[Terry VerHaar]

In my oppinion, there will be panic buying when the Scarlet fixed is released. Go back and read my several posts on this subject. There are a hole bunch of issues that have yet to be announced about the release. My suspicion is that every RED ONE and EPIC owner will buy as many Scarlets as they are allowed and we will see many of them on ebay for 25% to 50% over the prices they were bought for. Satisfying this demand will delay the general release of Scarlet and the going price will stick in RED's mind as "Well, this must be what they are worth, so a price adjustment is in order." There is a significant chance there will be a mainstream audience "buzz" (outside of the usual photo and video community) generated by the frenzy. Further, I would not be surprised to see large buyers from news and other networks suck thousands out of the market in bulk buys that will get precedent over fans like me. RED will have to decide when to fill the retail channel (B&H, the NY/NJ photo stores, etc.) vs. selling direct to fans, who are otherwise know as customers in the mass market. In this case, I don't expect to own a Scarlet before October. I also expect 20K units on day one (depending on the limits to RED ONE owners), the average eBay price to be ~$7,000 day two, 55K sold by the end of the year. I'll probably get mine for ~$6K in late September.

Call me naive if you want , but this seems excessively paranoid. I know... "just because you're paranoid, that doesn't mean they're not out to get you" but it seems like conspiracy theory on steroids. Possible? Maybe. But hundreds of RED owners, each buying several (a dozen or more?) Scarlets and systematically listing them on eBay - not to mention all of us are desperate enough to pay what, a 40% premium because we just can't wait. Keep in mind, the premium price won't hold up unless we are that desperate. Now, all that has to happen in full view of the company that, so far, has been more than honorable to their customers? And you are saying RED will jump right in and "screw" those new/potential customers with an immediate price hike knowing they will poison their brand for years to come? Like I said, I might be naive but I am going to trust Jim's and RED's track record of integrity and good business on this one. and, being good (exceptional, actually) business people, you think they haven't thought carefully about their release strategy? (BTW - if they haven't, where can I apply for a job! :001_tt1: )

One side note - for all your pessimism about the process, I think you are pretty optimistic in thinking you'll have your Scarlet in October even AFTER all these shenanigans. Personally, I hope to have my Scarlet that soon in the normal course of things. As far as timing, I hope you are right and I am wrong! :001_unsure:

 

[J Davis]

There may be a wave of panic buying but it will be from NON red owners.

Those who already own RED's couldn't give a squat, why would they need to panic buy?
They got to their position though careful decision making and shrewd business judgements. Plus the markup made from buying and selling a fixed scarlet is small
change compared to jobs they are currently doing with a 40 grand R1 package.

You are confusing R1 owners with opportunist scalpers.

 

[Tim Hole]

Man thats just runaway paranoia...the people on this forum have more respect for the red team and brand.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

News and Networks?

News and Networks?

Further, I would not be surprised to see large buyers from news and other networks suck thousands out of the market in bulk buys that will get precedent over fans like me.

One additional note on this specific concern...

Scarlet is not all that "television friendly" in the way it creates images. The R3D files will not play well going to broadcast so it would probably not be all that attractive to news organizations or networks. Perhaps independent production companies shooting TV series' will go this route but that's a much lower number than national and local TV organizations.

 

[Thomas Mark Schaefer]

Terry,

I never said RED would screw anyone. I believe in free markets (I heard your congress woman on CSPAN Re: the health care bill the other day, and apparently the voters in Silicon Valley don't) and when you compare the features and specs of Scarlet to other cameras at $7,000, there is no comparison. Auctions set a natural market price. You can't enter a market with something far more valuable than it's list price and not anticipate this sort of adaptation. Do you really think it is fair for speculators to reap the initial difference between the market price and list price for Scarlet? I don't, and would rather RED have the profit or money to invest in R&D, production, and support. When RED can meet demand, and RED wants to grow demand by lowering price, that will happen. Price is intended to allocate limited supply to those who want something enough to pay it.

 

[David Rasberry]

One additional note on this specific concern...

Scarlet is not all that "television friendly" in the way it creates images. The R3D files will not play well going to broadcast so it would probably not be all that attractive to news organizations or networks. Perhaps independent production companies shooting TV series' will go this route but that's a much lower number than national and local TV organizations.

ENG/EFP cameras from the big 3 will continue to dominate the broadcast news and sports markets for sure. Scarlet would work well for independent stringers that shoot occasional news stories along with a variety of EFP productions. The one piece over the shoulder style ENG cam is very efficient and highly evolved for its application. Hard to beat.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Terry,

I never said RED would screw anyone. I believe in free markets (I heard your congress woman on CSPAN Re: the health care bill the other day, and apparently the voters in Silicon Valley don't) and when you compare the features and specs of Scarlet to other cameras at $7,000, there is no comparison. Auctions set a natural market price. You can't enter a market with something far more valuable than it's list price and not anticipate this sort of adaptation. Do you really think it is fair for speculators to reap the initial difference between the market price and list price for Scarlet? I don't, and would rather RED have the profit or money to invest in R&D, production, and support. When RED can meet demand, and RED wants to grow demand by lowering price, that will happen. Price is intended to allocate limited supply to those who want something enough to pay it.

You might want to leave politics and implicit insults out of this forum. I am a long time capitalist but there are some markets where the incentives of the providers are in direct opposition to the needs of the customers - having worked there at one point in my career, I believe this to be the case with the health insurance industry.

Back on topic - RED has announced the initial price and I believe they will do their best to honor that. Jim doesn't need to...uh... "take advantage" of anyone - he's rich enough, he's a businessman with a terrific track record and a long term perspective and, having watched Oakley from pretty close up in its early years, I know he knows about the sanctity of the brand. You may be right that the actual value of the Scarlet is more than the current price - but you assume Jim and RED to be less competent than you in assessing that. Could their be short term anomalies, sure. But when it comes to assessing RED's business and their markets, my money (literally) is on Jim. Be my guest - stay as paranoid as you feel comfortable with.

I notice you don't let people know where you are located.

 

[J Davis]

Thomas, I understand your paranoia especially as we have seen this a lot with vDSLR releases. But remember that R1 owners will get first option on scarlets, we all agree on that. And what R1 owner wants to be seen as an opportunist selling off fixed scarlets for a profit on eBay? This is a small community and word gets around. Maybe someone might but I seriously doubt if any of them could be bothered with that.

I know for a fact that if I was a working R1 owner with 100g's tied up in equipment that I depended on for reputation, career and work that buying and selling a fixed for a few grand profit would be the last thing on my mind.

 

[Carlos Dueñas]

But remember that R1 owners will get first option on scarlets, we all agree on that

Why are you people so sure about that? There's stage 1, 2 & 3 on Epic for the Red1 owners, so..Scarlet too?

Its ok to be a little paranoid about this, Scarlet spec price is under 5000, and a lot of people are going to get one, just to have one..HDSLR's are the best example of where is going the Scarlet mass sales.

 

[Liam Hall]

Scared! Do you really mean scared??

Maybe concerned, no not even concerned. Possibly impatient, but not scared. Being scared about the release of Scarlet is simply irrational. You'll get yours eventually...

 

[Jim Retar]

55K sold by the end of the year.

I think 55,000 sales for the fixed lens is a strange number to guess at. From what I remember, the 5DII / 7D are not too much above that amount and they are ground breaking cameras targeting a much more widespread market and Canon have a huge network of suppliers, service centers and distributors.

I can't see many photographers being interested in fixed 2/3"... they will wait for an s35/FF option.

News/Network will let the dust settle and see the workflow/1080p down sample etc. Not too many news companies would want to be editing .r3d

Few consumer customers will likely get onboard... they like to be able to shop at their local electronics store and be able to take goods back, not send them across the country/world.

As for Ebay type sales, it seems possible... but the registration path is not that straight forward and RED might find a way to stop people flipping the camera for profit.

I think around 5000-10000, in the 1st year, is a more likely figure.

 

[Jim Retar]

HDSLR's are the best example of where is going the Scarlet mass sales.

I don't see the comparison.

$5000 is at the top end of the Nikon/Canon range. Probably 90% of their sales are coming from photographers. Probably 5% are coming from people with an interest in still/video and 5% solely for video.

For the scarlet line $10k will be the very cheapest package to compare with a flagship DSLR for still imagery (that is assuming RED can get anywhere near Nikon/Canon for still imagery features). That will prove too rich for most... just the shooters who need fast frame burst will consider it.

So, the fixed/2/3" Scarlet will be fighting it out with the 10% (informed guess!) or so that are buying DSLRs for mainly video purposes. It is not a huge market and one that is sometimes happy to make workarounds/sacrifices for price.

 

[David Rasberry]

I think 55,000 sales for the fixed lens is a strange number to guess at. From what I remember, the 5DII / 7D are not too much above that amount and they are ground breaking cameras targeting a much more widespread market and Canon have a huge network of suppliers, service centers and distributors.

I can't see many photographers being interested in fixed 2/3"... they will wait for an s35/FF option.

There are a lot of us for whom stills capability and 35mm format sensors aren't so important. Highest quality image and no compromise field production capability in a compact affordable 16mm film like format are exactly what we want. I anticipate much higher than 10,000 sales in the first year for the fixed version especially, including people upgrading from or supplementing their VDSLR's. This camera will be a dream come true for many. For everyone that bought a VDSLR for video there is someone who didn't because they aren't good enough. Many who did buy them did so as an interim solution until something better comes along. A 2/3" format HD camera for around 1/2 the price of the cheapest competitor would be a significant market development in any case. Scarlet, shooting high frame rates in native digital cinema widescreen format at way beyond HD camera resolutions is a radical departure from anything currently available or likely to be in the next couple of years.

 

[Steve Das]

I think around 5000-10000, in the 1st year, is a more likely figure.

Those seem more like Epic sales numbers.
Scarlets maybe 10-20x times epic sales..do the math..
no real point to this..just kinda fun guessing..

Don't freak out on resellers...most likely there will be a
supply build to meet initial demands..+ many people are wait/see types..

 

[Carlos Dueñas]

Jim, how's that you dont see the comparison? There is a lot, and i mean a lot of people getting the 7D just for video. You can see then on the streets, on the forums, giving away their video cámeras just to get the new HDSLR's (look into dvxuser/5Duser forums), even selling EX1/EX3's (for real) and getting 1000's of dollars in Zacuto's and RedRockMicro gear, besides the lenses.. Its not the photographers but the video/indie film people the one's are getting this cameras, people who dream to own a Red1.
You will see fixed Scarlet everywhere, thats for sure..
You know how many people are graduating from film schools this year around the world?
Its going to be not even DSMC, but Red's Scarlet Era..

 

[Jim Retar]

The Epic is a $40k+ bundle.. realistically. to shift 5000-10,000 would be something of a miracle.

you can point at 7000+ R1 serials... but they are not 7000+ unique purchases (and R1 is at the least $11.5k cheaper).

Please note, I also said 1st year.... which is probably more likely the last 3/4 months of 2010 (for fixed Scarlet). I think 5000-10,000 is a very resonable expectation for manufacture, delivery and sale.

 

[Jim Retar]

Jim, how's that you dont see the comparison? There is a lot, and i mean a lot of people getting the 7D just for video. You can see then on the streets, on the forums, giving away their video cámeras just to get the new HDSLR's (look into dvxuser/5Duser forums), even selling EX1/EX3's (for real) and getting 1000's of dollars in Zacuto's and RedRockMicro gear, besides the lenses.. Its not the photographers but the video/indie film people the one's are getting this cameras, people who dream to own a Red1.
You will see fixed Scarlet everywhere, thats for sure..
You know how many people are graduating from film schools this year around the world?
Its going to be not even DSMC, but Red's Scarlet Era..

Could it not be a case that you mainly speak to and notice film makers though?

I work heavily in the photography and video business and know many people who have 5DII / 7D and never use the video features. Around 90% in fact (hence my guess work).

As for the film grads.... how many have $6k+ (fixed + CF cards etc)? How many might turn to a 5DIII or whatever comes out late 2010. How many people outside of USA might think twice about Scarlet because of the minimal service around Europe and Asia?

Don't take this as a knock to RED... like I have said before.... I visit this forum because I specifically want an s35 Scarlet. I just think alot of people misinterpret how big the cinema market is.

 

[David Rasberry]

Don't take this as a knock to RED... like I have said before.... I visit this forum because I specifically want an s35 Scarlet. I just think alot of people misinterpret how big the cinema market is.

You forget the teleproduction market, which dwarfs the cinema market.

 

[Steve Das]

The Epic is a $40k+ bundle.. realistically. to shift 5000-10,000 would be something of a miracle.
...Please note, I also said 1st year.... which is probably more likely the 3/4 months of 2010 (for fixed Scarlet). I think 5000-10,000 is a very resonable expectation for manufacture, delivery and sale.

Epic might need 2 years to hit those sales..but certainly doable..

As for Scarlet..think vastly underestimated..forget whatever 1-2 year
delay on it so far...many people have been waiting for such a high
resolution/small form digital camera since the beginning mini-dv Sony
VX-1000 circa 1997..that's well over a decade people have been
waiting for such a camera..trust us..it will sell like gangbusters..