It's Official... BluRay wins over HD-dvd!

[Tom Lowe]

I guess the X-Box HD-DVD drive add-on wasn't very popular in Seattle. Only if Microsoft included an HD-DVD drive.



They're the same thing just one has a higher capacity.

And a higher price. :greedy: :whistling:

 

[Jeff Kilgroe]

All the stores I've been too in several states as well as online shops sell BD and HD-DVD for basically the same price. And the few titles that are available on both formats tend to be the same price on both formats... BD players are still a bit more expensive, but this should even out by the end of they year as the gap is narrowing. BD player pricing has been artificially inflated as most manufacturers in the BluRay camp have been following Sony's lead. At times I think Sony wants a drawn-out format war... They could have squashed HD-DVD several times by now, but have bungled every opportunity.

Blu-Ray is the superior standard, or at least it is on paper... As of right now, the dual-layer 50GB discs are only superior in terms of the extra capacity, but true superiority won't come until we can get our hands on quad-layer or better discs, especially in writable form. Blue-Ray has superior copy protection features, but this can also work against them if they don't handle it properly. IMO, by this time net year, we will still be having a "war", but there will be several affordable players on the market that will play both formats and it will be less of an issue to consumers. Universal and possibly Warner will be offering discs with BD on one side and HD-DVD on the other side as well. And I think this is the only way the current HD discs are going to survive. Holographic isn't going to wipe them from the market though... Still too early for that tech and it currently offers little that BD and HD-DVD don't. Oh, and there are more variations to holographic media designs than we can count on one hand. I also don't see IP delivery replacing discs either. It's nice to have movies on demand, but unless people have a way to place a movie on a tangible piece of media and drop it into a standard player, it's not going to take over. Too many people actually like to own a physical copy of their favorite movies.

...So, that one format to rule them all has not yet materialized.

If RED sweeps the digital production industry and REDCODE and its 4K workflow revolutionize how we work on a large scale, then I see no reason why REDCODE RGB masters on 300GB holographic media couldn't become a potential new competitor or standard within a few years. 4K for home cinema will come to pass, it's just a matter of time. Many thought that 1080p would never happen... It's here, even though broadcasters don't want to admit it.

 

[Brian Kaz]

The biggest problem as I see it is that this format war is slowing adoption. Too many people are waiting for a winner before jumping in. This holiday season should go a long way in ending it. Blu-Ray has been getting the most press lately with many small studios going exclusive or neutral, and major stores favoring their format (Blockbuster, Target, BJs wholesale). Right now, HD-DVDs only real defence is lowering it's hardware prices, but this is causing all other CE manufacturers to not make HD-DVD players because they can't make any profit. If HD-DVD can't gain back significant market share after the holidays, look for Universal to start thinking neutral. If they do, there is no reason to go HD-DVD as Blu-ray will then be the only format to have 100% of the HD content available.

I think we should all go back to watching movies in theatres... how can you beat that experience..!?!

Heh, I beat that experience every day in my own house.

Doesn't matter who wins now, holographic discs are going to wipe them both out.

It took long enough for these current formats to get going. If holographic discs become the next home video media, they'll be the successor, not the destroyer.

All I know is that I DO NOT want low-bitrate HD-lite downloads that are no better than Sat/cable.

 

[Tom Lowe]

Jeff, I have to disagree with you that Sony "could have squashed HD-DVD" at any time. They're already dumping everything they've got into this format war. In fact, it's Microsoft who could have crushed Bluray had that been their intention. Keep in mind that Microsoft has enough money in the bank to throw ten billion dollars into any business war they engage in, and not even miss it. Sony, meanwhile, is operating deep into the black on their PS3 and Bluray ventures, to the tune of something like a $300USD loss for every PS3 they sell.

Microsoft has a long history of winning format and business wars, while Sony is famous for losing format wars.

My read on the situation is that Gates and Co. have made a strategic bet that it won't be any type of cheap little plastic disc that wins the HD delivery war, it will be downloads onto harddrives, via platforms like their Windows Media Center, which I also believe will be the way of the future for content delivery.

Already, this is how video games are being sold. The last two games I got, Half Life 2 and Battlefield 2142, I downloaded off the net onto my PC's harddrive. The days of plastic discs are numbered, so I think Microsoft is deciding to take less interest in Bluray vs HD-DVD, which could bode well for Bluray.

 

[Joel Kaye]

My read on the situation is that Gates and Co. have made a strategic bet that it won't be any type of cheap little plastic disc that wins the HD delivery war, it will be downloads onto harddrives, via platforms like their Windows Media Center, which I also believe will be the way of the future for content delivery.

I hope you're right. Somewhere between Microsoft, Apple and Google we'll probably see the future. Or Perhaps the studios will get smart and sell direct. If they're REALLY smart they'll sell OUR stuff direct. That's the paradigm shift I'd make if I was them. It's what I'd do if I was any of those guys... find a way to make you and me money off of our content.

Google will do it first IMHO.

 

[Anders Holck]

I must say I'm enjoying my HD DVD's

The only thing Blu-ray has going for it, is the larger capacity (50 GB single side compared to 30 GB single side or 60 GB Dual side) and 15 mbit higher mux rate. (32.6 mbit < 48 mbit)

Other than that the BDA really fumbled this standard.
HD DVD is superior in current player features: Second video decoder for PIP or IM, Network connector, True HD and DD+ audio and built in storage.
And the cheapest player is now $230 with 5 disks, and the above features.

Current Blu-Ray player specs are 1.0, 1.1 is just about coming out next month with the Denon and 2.0 will come out 2008

1.0 is The interactivity layer BD+J
1.1 is secondary decoder for PIP IME, storage
2.0 is Network connectivity, extra storage

It's plausible that the PS3 will be able to be updated to 2.0, when available.

Disk prices are the same, with HD DVD+DVD combos having a $5 premium.
Picture quality is the same on new releases. Audio quality is mostly the same.
HD DVD's have PIP and more advanced features and will have them exclusively until next year when 2.0 debutes.

Right now it's more about which studios you prefer for the short period: Universal or Disney/Fox/Sony

What made me buy into the format was player prices, ability to import american releases at half the price of Danish (No region coding on HD DVD) Some great releases by Universal, and that at the time the PQ was more consistent at the time.

Another thing that has been bugging me is the bad press. This year the available sales data for the US have been consistently around 60:40 with the nod to Blu-ray in disc sales. And in player sales, besides the 1.5 million Ps3's the player sales are 70:30 with the nod to HD DVD.

Clearly there is no winner yet.

I don't know why the press goes crazy every time Sony sends a new press release.

The Blockbuster story was not about dropping HD DVD, it was Blockbuster starting to carry select Blu-ray in an extra 1400 stores. Both is still available in the largest 250 stores and on-line.

The Target story was about Sony buying endcaps in their stores. Target will only carry the $499 Sony player through the christmas season, but will still sell both format disks and the X-box add on.

Well, all in all, HD DVD might loose in the end, but right now I'm really enjoying the format.

For a consumer format 20 mbit VC-1 or H264 looks pretty darn good on a 50" 1080p screen.

 

[Joe Carney]

Jeff, I have to disagree with you that Sony "could have squashed HD-DVD" at any time. They're already dumping everything they've got into this format war. In fact, it's Microsoft who could have crushed Bluray had that been their intention. Keep in mind that Microsoft has enough money in the bank to throw ten billion dollars into any business war they engage in, and not even miss it. Sony, meanwhile, is operating deep into the black on their PS3 and Bluray ventures, to the tune of something like a $300USD loss for every PS3 they sell.

Microsoft has a long history of winning format and business wars, while Sony is famous for losing format wars.

My read on the situation is that Gates and Co. have made a strategic bet that it won't be any type of cheap little plastic disc that wins the HD delivery war, it will be downloads onto harddrives, via platforms like their Windows Media Center, which I also believe will be the way of the future for content delivery.

Already, this is how video games are being sold. The last two games I got, Half Life 2 and Battlefield 2142, I downloaded off the net onto my PC's harddrive. The days of plastic discs are numbered, so I think Microsoft is deciding to take less interest in Bluray vs HD-DVD, which could bode well for Bluray.

I agree with this. MS has just recently went gold with Windows Home Server. They sent it to various hardware vendors (ie Dell) and others to bundle. Go to http://connect.microsoft.com/WindowsHomeServer and find out more. We are talking media serving, file sharing, browsing...all in an easy to use package that even joe sixpack can understand.

Heres a link to an ms pr video that explains it
http://channel9.msdn.com/showpost.aspx?postid=270965

 

[Brian Kaz]

As I rarely watch extras, Blu-ray not having PIP certainly doesn't bother me (but I have a PS3 so I'll probably get it in firmware anyway). And while low cost is always nice, I think Toshiba artificially lowering their prices to stay competitive is going to eventually kill them. Want an HD-DVD player? Toshiba's the only game in town. At least there are choices in Blu (Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Denon, Samsung...). The only way to get a non-Toshiba HD-DVD player is to buy a costly dual-player.

sales data for the US have been consistently around 60:40 with the nod to Blu-ray in disc sales.

Actually, I'd say it's averaging 65:35 since the start of this year.

And in player sales, besides the 1.5 million Ps3's the player sales are 70:30 with the nod to HD DVD.

With the $100 price drop, I'm sure this PS3 number will change dramatically but it's also worth noting that the PS3 is THE most used device for playback of Blu-ray movies by far. The 70:30 hardware figure (if that is indeed still accurate) certainly doesn't paint the whole picture - which the software sales ratio bears out.

That said, HD-DVD players are getting so cheap I may get one so I can rent the current Universal exclusives. I figure, if HD-DVD does indeed die out, I'll be able to enjoy all the content in the meantime and at worst, have a nice upconverting DVD player for the bedroom. If somehow they win or it all ends in a draw - no prob, I already have a player.

While I prefer Blu just based on specs and potential, in the end a single format is more important to me - whoever that may be.

 

[Anders Holck]

Yeah, with spiderman 1+2+3 coming out this year in november I think the ratio will fall way over to the Blu side. I believe many of the PS3 owners would purchase that title.

When 2.0 players come out I might buy into that as well, but I'm not a gamer and I wont buy one of the current Blu-ray standalones until they support the final spec.

But I'm also hoping Universal will release more of their great catalog titles.

 

[Poi Boy]

the hole thing is really fucking lame and both manufacturers are screwing themselves. In the near term (five years) there will be room in the market for plastic discs, hard drives are just too transient. We consumers need players that play both formats until they are both obsolete, (three years maybe).
Aloha
-A

 

[pat@hpnc.com]

I will worry about it in a couple of years when its all worked out one way or the other. Until then I have other things to waste money on

 

[Greg Voevodsky]

Blu-ray has over 60% market. They also have the game market with ps3 (despite ok sales still. it still leads the hd-dvds for x-box 360 if it does'nt overheat or blow up like a sony battery). Also, BD has most of the content providers from Hollywood with 4 out of 6 studios, the game industry with ps3, and computer industry with Del, hp, apple.

HD-DVD has a small electronics company, microsoft a software not hardware (except xbox 360 which is small for HD-DVDs as an add on... it might have been different if they included it... but they did not and so far plan not!)... and for the pc industry... no real players... HD-DVD is the lessor format, with less support, and will die in 2 years... without good pc support nor game support.

There are no or few HD-DVD burners in pcs or macs or ever will be as well as hd-dvd players in the next gen councels... both are 1/3 the market. The PC industry is bigger than Hollywood, and so is the Game Business. HD-DVD looses on all 3 and will die. The quickest blu-ray wins, the better for us RED producers who want to hit the markets on Blu-Ray 1080p ASAP. The problem is we still have to support DVD and that costs us alot. DVD is going to die with Blu-Ray eventually in 5-8 years with downloads...

Until then as producers... I will now have to spend per title $1500 for 1000 DVDs, $5000 for Blu-Ray... or $6500 per title, up from $1500 per title for the next year or so... So my inventory if I make 5 titles is @#$@#... and if I were to do HD-DVD (instead of custom flix's $8 a copy...) would only be worse. I will have over $30,000 stuck in inventory for 5 titles vs $7500 now... That affects my production budgets, selling and making more DVDs or HD discs! Add another $5000 for supporting HD-DVD or now $15000 in 3000 hd, blu ray and dvds per title and see how @#$ up that is... not to mention retailers who just halfed or 1/3 'rd their shelf space. End the war, blu-ray will win, dvd will survive... lets get it done.

Im glad blockbuster had the balls to choose one format... the sooner the other retailers or distributors do the same the faster the war will end and we will have affordable duplication for a few years until downloads kill it like the CDs.... So support BD, end the war, so us indi-producers can distribute our hd titles to the masses cheeply... before downloads take over... Holographic and RAM will not be cheep viable replacements for at least 5-10 years before adoption even has a chance.

 

[Poi Boy]

If we get a combo player in the $300 range the whole war thing will be mute and we can move on to the next inteligent next step.
Aloha
-A

 

[Jason Murphy]

I think, as several people have already alluded to here, content support is also key:

Studios which are format neutral:
Warner, Paramount, DreamWorks, probably New Line

Studios which exclusively support Blu-Ray:
Disney, Fox, MGM, Lionsgate and Sony

Studios which exclusively support HD-DVD:
Universal (because Toshiba owns them).

As much as I like Universal's offerings, they don't have a lineup of titles that are capable of deciding a format war. It seems to me that Blu-ray has a significant advantage in terms of studio support, and therefore content.

HD-DVD players might be cheaper, and may have the MS advantage (if anything comes of that) but that seems to be about it right now. My guess is that, if this war is actually won (and it may be that something else comes along and renders this format war moot), it will probably be won by Blu-ray, just looking at support.

 

[Tom Lowe]

I think the lack of HD-DVD burners is a big issue here. The lack of such burners is absolutely criminal, and has badly hurt HD-DVD's cause. If HD-DVD burners were available, I would have gotten one already.

 

[Tom Lowe]

I agree with this. MS has just recently went gold with Windows Home Server. They sent it to various hardware vendors (ie Dell) and others to bundle. Go to http://connect.microsoft.com/WindowsHomeServer and find out more. We are talking media serving, file sharing, browsing...all in an easy to use package that even joe sixpack can understand.

Heres a link to an ms pr video that explains it
http://channel9.msdn.com/showpost.aspx?postid=270965

Keep in mind that Sony has been a solid backer and manufacturer for MS's Windows Media Center PCs. This is another reason why I think MS has not gone for their throats on the Bluray/HD-DVD issue, because Sony in turn could drop its support for MS's Media Center platform.

 

[Anders Holck]

We'll I'm really not that religious about formats, as long as it works

For indie filmmakers HD DVD does have some advantages though, that I think should be mentioned:

3x format: You can master a DVD9 as a HD DVD and either burn it to a DL DVD or replicate in a normal replication line. Thats about 40 mins at full bitrate. Or about 70 mins with average bitrate. Pretty good for shorter projects and promos. And available right now in Apples DVD SP.

AACS is not mandatory. If you replicate on BD you must have a AACS license and pay a AACS fee per master press. You can skip this for HD DVD even on DL30

Backwards compatability You can replicate combos, DVD5/15 or DVD9/30 for example. One disk can target both DVD and HD DVD.

Cheaper replication Although it doesn't matter as much on low volume batches, the price for replication is lower for a DVD9/30 than a BD50. Also very few lines do BD50.

Again this is of cause pretty moot at the moment because of lacking advanced authoring tools for any indie producer.

Again I'm not religious about this, but I do think HD DVD has some nice qualities about it.

 

[Joe Carney]

I didn't know you were forced to pay the aacs encryption fee whether you wanted to use it or not.

 

[Anders Holck]

I hope they change their mind about this if the format wins, and then change it in the specs. The AACS contract fee is $3.000-$10.000, and then $1700 per encryption key. The key is tied to the mastering, so if you find there is an error on your first sample, you have to pay for another one for a new master.
This of cause all applies to replication only, not burnable media.

 

[Graeme Nattress]

I'd read that that was the problem with the encryption.

Graeme