- Moderator
- #41
Jeff Kilgroe
Well-known member
I think people are taking the whole "post-PC" thing a bit too literal. Apple can call it what they want (marketing), but they're not misleading or stretching the truth. The desktop PC or similar is no longer a requirement in ones computing tasks. And when it comes to the direction Apple is heading, sure they are trying to lead the charge, but Microsoft is right there with them. In some ways, Microsoft has already beat them to the punch with a few key implementations and features. Microsoft's cloud services are already more capable and robust. Windows 8 is very evolved and will release with full support for ARM and Intel architectures. The new interface is highly geared toward touch devices and mobile use, tablets, notebooks, etc.. This is where it's all headed.... Call it what you will.
Apple will continue to make computers. They will transition more products to the ARM platform, no doubt. iOS and OSX will eventually merge. The Mac Pro is not on the chopping block as many people seem to fear, at least not yet. It is one of their primary Intel products that is probably not anywhere close to the chopping block at this time. Jobs wanted Apple products to be just as much a part of media creation as they are a part of consumption. Without a product like the Mac Pro, this will not be entirely possible. On the other hand, I do agree with Cioni and a lot of others -- the Mac Pro's lifeline is finite and the writing is on the wall. The days of large tower workstations are drawing to a close. This is not just for Apple, but for many PC vendors. There is only so much of a market for them and at some point it will be difficult for the industry to sustain such configurations as off-the-shelf products. In the very near future (actually even now to a certain degree), devices like the iPad are powerful enough to satisfy the computing needs of many. The future of mainstream computing is not cramming 2 or 4 or more Xeon CPUs, sucking 130W or more each, into a large desk-side tower. Intel knows this, look at what they are doing to their CPU lines. They are gradually migrating to the the "system-on-a-chip" philosophy. The Sandy Bridge Xeon-E5 that just released is a great example. Intel has migrated more functionality, including the PCIe host, onto the CPU. This trend will continue. Ultimately the Intel x86 offerings will probably see a unification across the line and increased similarity. Not the current mobile, desktop and workstation/server segregation. The future of computing is more modular, even cellular or nodal in nature. If you need a massive render farm or massively parallel database server, the options will be there to build one. But for most, the desktop PC will migrate from that box on your desk to a dock where you set your phone or your tablet. Tablets, mostly the iPad, are replacing notebook computers everywhere. For business and personal use... In another couple years when optical media is irrelevant, solid state storage is big and cheap and low-power processors manufactured at 18nm process are several times more powerful than what Apple just dropped into the new iPad, do you think people are going to want a "computer" taking up space on their desk?
In many ways, this really is a revolution, or a massive evolutionary shift. Call it what you will... Microsoft and most PC users are not going to call it a "post-PC" revolution or anything like that. To them, that is segregating products by maker... To many, a tablet is still a PC. Why should a personal computer not be a "PC", just because it can fit in a pocket? What's more personal than that, if you think about it? This trend, whatever you call it, I think most of us saw coming at some level if we just think about how computing technology progresses. Where it is ultimately headed, I don't think anyone can say and several large players have their own differing ideas about this. Personally, I think Microsoft and Apple both have it right and are going in similar but somewhat different directions. I'm not so sure what to make of Android from a long-term perspective, same with Linux. With the jaws of Apple patent claims and the high probability that Windows 8 is going to be a smash hit, I'm not sure if Android has what it takes to survive the long term... Where will it be in a decade from now? Not to mention that Microsoft, and Apple to an even bigger extent, both want Android terminated with extreme prejudice.
Apple will continue to make computers. They will transition more products to the ARM platform, no doubt. iOS and OSX will eventually merge. The Mac Pro is not on the chopping block as many people seem to fear, at least not yet. It is one of their primary Intel products that is probably not anywhere close to the chopping block at this time. Jobs wanted Apple products to be just as much a part of media creation as they are a part of consumption. Without a product like the Mac Pro, this will not be entirely possible. On the other hand, I do agree with Cioni and a lot of others -- the Mac Pro's lifeline is finite and the writing is on the wall. The days of large tower workstations are drawing to a close. This is not just for Apple, but for many PC vendors. There is only so much of a market for them and at some point it will be difficult for the industry to sustain such configurations as off-the-shelf products. In the very near future (actually even now to a certain degree), devices like the iPad are powerful enough to satisfy the computing needs of many. The future of mainstream computing is not cramming 2 or 4 or more Xeon CPUs, sucking 130W or more each, into a large desk-side tower. Intel knows this, look at what they are doing to their CPU lines. They are gradually migrating to the the "system-on-a-chip" philosophy. The Sandy Bridge Xeon-E5 that just released is a great example. Intel has migrated more functionality, including the PCIe host, onto the CPU. This trend will continue. Ultimately the Intel x86 offerings will probably see a unification across the line and increased similarity. Not the current mobile, desktop and workstation/server segregation. The future of computing is more modular, even cellular or nodal in nature. If you need a massive render farm or massively parallel database server, the options will be there to build one. But for most, the desktop PC will migrate from that box on your desk to a dock where you set your phone or your tablet. Tablets, mostly the iPad, are replacing notebook computers everywhere. For business and personal use... In another couple years when optical media is irrelevant, solid state storage is big and cheap and low-power processors manufactured at 18nm process are several times more powerful than what Apple just dropped into the new iPad, do you think people are going to want a "computer" taking up space on their desk?
In many ways, this really is a revolution, or a massive evolutionary shift. Call it what you will... Microsoft and most PC users are not going to call it a "post-PC" revolution or anything like that. To them, that is segregating products by maker... To many, a tablet is still a PC. Why should a personal computer not be a "PC", just because it can fit in a pocket? What's more personal than that, if you think about it? This trend, whatever you call it, I think most of us saw coming at some level if we just think about how computing technology progresses. Where it is ultimately headed, I don't think anyone can say and several large players have their own differing ideas about this. Personally, I think Microsoft and Apple both have it right and are going in similar but somewhat different directions. I'm not so sure what to make of Android from a long-term perspective, same with Linux. With the jaws of Apple patent claims and the high probability that Windows 8 is going to be a smash hit, I'm not sure if Android has what it takes to survive the long term... Where will it be in a decade from now? Not to mention that Microsoft, and Apple to an even bigger extent, both want Android terminated with extreme prejudice.
