Invest in RED Epic Dragon?? Or Wait?

[Scot Yount]

Hi Gangsters,
Right now there is a lot of excitement over the capability of the new Weapon system and what it promises for the future. I have owned a Scarlet MX for about year, and have learned a great deal on lots of very different projects. A nifty little camera that I bought used. It has been a great experience and a blast frankly. I have lost some jobs however, because I didn’t have 6K Dragon, even though I told the potential client I could easily rent a Dragon brain. It seems most producers don’t realize there is little difference (other than OLPFs and exposure choices) between the two systems in terms of operation.
So, I have been looking at used Epic Dragons, mostly because I want more FPS and the newer color science. (I know there are many arguments about what can be achieved) RED’s trade in program on Weapon has depressed prices, and that will continue. But what do people think the capabilities of this new, as yet unnamed “middle” camera will be? Raven looks like a great choice (if you are full up on Canon glass and don’t mind the much smaller sensor) and, it is very affordable. Weapon, for a lot of us, isn’t justifiable in terms of cost. So what do people think the middle camera will do in terms of specs and cost? To make a long question longer…do people think it is viable to invest in a good used Epic Dragon, or wait for the middle camera, (which may equal or come close to the performance of an Epic Dragon, but might cost a lot less? I know Jared said that Scarlet and Epic Dragons will be around for a while…..but…..
Thoughts?

 

[Michael Tiemann]

I have answered this same question on other threads. I think that the update to the SCARLET is to mate the SCARLET sensor (which is a full, 6K DRAGON sensor) to the electronics of the RAVEN (which offers 2x the processing capabilities of the current SCARLET), and wrap that in an aluminum WEAPON frame. The price of the SCARLET tells you the floor of what a full DRAGON sensor and an interchangeable mount in a package can cost. The RAVEN tells you the floor of what the internal electronics, integrated WiFi, and bottom-end ProRes can cost. Put the two together, stir, and I think you have something that offers 6K FF video somewhere between 6:1 and 8:1, which is about half the spec of the WEAPON Mg and about 2x the spec of the SCARLET DRAGON, with a price between $14K and $20K for the brain. RED could offer an analogous bundle of accessories for building a package, a la RAVEN.

Such a camera would be really, really close to EPIC DRAGON (not quite the compression ratios, not quite the slo-mo, not necessarily the 1/2 K resolution steps, but better noise level and other WEAPON features)...at about 1/2 its original cost. And less if they offer a good trade-in value for your SCARLET DRAGON.

 

[Adam Griffith]

Scot, if you are loosing clients because you didn't have a 6K dragon...why would you consider getting the Raven when its only 4.5K? Yes it's newer but if your client base is overlooking you because you don't have a Dragon then a Raven won't change much.

I was in the exact same place as you only a month ago, do I go with the DSMC2 bodies and accessories - get the Raven to keep up with the times? Or do I buy a used 6K Dragon which I'd have to completely replace should I choose Weapon later.
For me being in Australia - the exchange rate is really bad at the moment so both were going to cost me a lot.

I got lucky and found a used Dragon in Australia and purchased that as a package, it was an amazing deal and had everything I need to shoot right out of the box. I think I had to buy a bolt kit but that was it.
I can use this Dragon for 12 to 18 months - see how the Raven and Weapon adoption goes as people with more money than me go out and buy them and give their feedback here on the forum. I can then decide which way to go and sell my Dragon for probably more than it cost me (assuming the exchange rate stays bad like it is now) or keep it and buy up on the cheap accessories that people will be offloading as they upgrade to Weapon.

I agree with your quote from Jared. The Dragon shoots 6K, and the public adoption rate of 4K televisions is very slow (especially here in Australia) as there still isn't a viable media available to make the consumers 4K purchase worth it.
So you're 6K footage will still have a place in the market for quite some time.

One other thing that put me off Raven that you should kind of consider is the crop factor.

If you only want to shoot 4.5K with the Dragon - you can. If you buy the Raven and need to shoot 5 or 6K...You're screwed.
Plus you can't just go out and hire a Dragon brain because your Raven accessories wont all work with it.

Nothing I've said here I claim to be gospel, It was just my train of thought when I was in your shoes about a month ago. I'm happy with my choice, even though the Dragon is coming on a few years old now - it's still stomping the other options out there.

 

[Satsuki Murashige]

You could always just tell your clients that you own XYZ camera body and then go sub-rent it when needed. Keep using the Scarlet for clients who don't demand 6k. Everybody wins. Just my 2¢.

 

[Brian Merlen]

Get MG

 

[Nick Morrison]

I think you should wait till the Weapon Scarlet @ NAB.

 

[jake southard]

Wait for Weapon Scarlet^^ for sure

 

[Scot Yount]

Scot, if you are loosing clients because you didn't have a 6K dragon...why would you consider getting the Raven when its only 4.5K? Yes it's newer but if your client base is overlooking you because you don't have a Dragon then a Raven won't change much.

I was in the exact same place as you only a month ago, do I go with the DSMC2 bodies and accessories - get the Raven to keep up with the times? Or do I buy a used 6K Dragon which I'd have to completely replace should I choose Weapon later.
For me being in Australia - the exchange rate is really bad at the moment so both were going to cost me a lot.

I got lucky and found a used Dragon in Australia and purchased that as a package, it was an amazing deal and had everything I need to shoot right out of the box. I think I had to buy a bolt kit but that was it.
I can use this Dragon for 12 to 18 months - see how the Raven and Weapon adoption goes as people with more money than me go out and buy them and give their feedback here on the forum. I can then decide which way to go and sell my Dragon for probably more than it cost me (assuming the exchange rate stays bad like it is now) or keep it and buy up on the cheap accessories that people will be offloading as they upgrade to Weapon.

I agree with your quote from Jared. The Dragon shoots 6K, and the public adoption rate of 4K televisions is very slow (especially here in Australia) as there still isn't a viable media available to make the consumers 4K purchase worth it.
So you're 6K footage will still have a place in the market for quite some time.

One other thing that put me off Raven that you should kind of consider is the crop factor.

If you only want to shoot 4.5K with the Dragon - you can. If you buy the Raven and need to shoot 5 or 6K...You're screwed.
Plus you can't just go out and hire a Dragon brain because your Raven accessories wont all work with it.

Nothing I've said here I claim to be gospel, It was just my train of thought when I was in your shoes about a month ago. I'm happy with my choice, even though the Dragon is coming on a few years old now - it's still stomping the other options out there.

All valid points. It wasn't as much not having 6K, but rather Dragon Color science.

 

[Michael Tiemann]

As an addendum to the answer I gave to the question I thought you asked (what's the replacement for SCARLET DRAGON going to look like?) I should add that the current DRAGON cameras (EPIC and SCARLET) are no slouches at all in their respective categories. Moreover, free markets are always moving towards equilibrium, and there is doubtless going to be a wide range of EPIC and SCARLET DRAGON cameras available for purchase for very attractive prices. As an owner/operator, you might do better purchasing a used DRAGON at a good price and making your name more a part of your selling package. As many have learned, trying to compete with pure rental companies is a big challenge that requires a pretty large (> $1M USD) investment. In my corner of the world, people don't rent brains a la carte, they either rent crews or their rent full-on packages from one-stop-shops.

You can win the crew business by proving that whatever you have (1) meets the technical output standard (i.e. 5K or 6K DRAGON), and (2) can do the job (whether that be a function of lenses or lighting, high-res or slo-mo, whatever). Winning the package business requires that you have a serious amount of gear (lenses, lighting instruments and modifiers, grip, etc) and expendables, primed and ready to go. WEAPON MG vs. EPIC DRAGON is going to influence the package business by about 0.01%.

Right now it's a buyer's market in terms of buying EPIC kit and accessories. An EPIC DRAGON will likely outperform whatever the SCARLET-level WEAPON turns out to be, with a ready-to-shoot package that will probably price similarly. Buying a used SCARLET or EPIC could be a great move today, and not at all a bad one, especially if RED continues to offer the trade-in valuations on DRAGON cameras that are currently offered on the WEAPON packages today.

 

[Elsie N]

The RAVEN brain is so inexpensive for what it does, and its availability timeline vs the new Scarlet make this camera an attractive option in my book. If you can kit it out using 3rd party accs, it becomes an even more attractive solution.

And with its low cost plus having the Weapon form factor, I think this camera will depreciate very little should you decide to sell it when the new Scarlet becomes available.

Not something to count on, but if you come down on the side of rampant inflation in a year or two rather than a deflationary cycle, the camera could even appreciate in value.

Not sure if any of the other RED cameras are a hedge against inflation as their tech should become cheaper in future. But the RAVEN?... this is a gift.

EDIT: Forgot to mention, if you frame correctly while shooting (not needing to reframe vertically for a 4k finish) with DEB and ADD in REDCINE, you can create an image suitable for upscaling to 5 or 6k IMO.

 

[Stephen Williams]

Not something to count on, but if you come down on the side of rampant inflation in a year or two rather than a deflationary cycle, the camera could even appreciate in value.
.

Neither will happen, gold falling is telling you there will be deflation rather than inflation. Used electronic equipment always looses value.....

 

[Michael Tiemann]

Neither will happen, gold falling is telling you there will be deflation rather than inflation. Used electronic equipment always looses value.....

Strongly agree.

 

[Matthew Quinn]

If you can wait, wait. those of us who ordered ravens are waiting anyhow hehe

 

[Elsie N]

Neither will happen, gold falling is telling you there will be deflation rather than inflation. Used electronic equipment always looses value.....

I lived through the Jimmy Carter runaway inflation years... people buried their heads in the sand back then that inflation would never get that bad.

And now, the only way to pay off our multi-trilllion dollar debt is to pay it off with cheap dollars. I'll not boldly say it is going to happen, as I do not profess to see into the future. I do however state categorically that either COULD happen. '-)

Gold falling? That's yesterday's news... what's it going to do tomorrow? (And some financial experts claim that gold is not the bell-cow of deflation/inflation it once was.)

But my main point was that the RAVEN is almost like a loss-leader. Even if the camera depreciates, how much lower can it go?

 

[Gene Sung]

I think you should wait till the Weapon Scarlet @ NAB.

The only problem I see with this is that if Scarlet Weapon is announced at NAB (April), based on how long Weapon took, it could be a solid few months after that before they start trickling out.

Seem like if you buy the Raven (March), you'll have a good camera during that possible 5 month wait, then sell the Raven (lose maybe $2K since it's only $6K body), then get the Scarlet Mag?

 

[Matthew Quinn]

The only problem I see with this is that if Scarlet Weapon is announced at NAB (April), based on how long Weapon took, it could be a solid few months after that before they start trickling out.

Seem like if you buy the Raven (March), you'll have a good camera during that possible 5 month wait, then sell the Raven (lose maybe $2K since it's only $6K body), then get the Scarlet Mag?

This is good thinking, plus never know could be an upgrade path for raven

 

[Scot Yount]

Thanks for all the responses. To be clear to Michael Riemann, you did answer the question I asked. And your second response answered the second part of my question, thanks for your input. Also to be clear, I wasn't considering buying the Raven. I meant it looks like a good choice for lots of people. However, for me, it isn't a great choice as I own PL glass and, the crop factor puts me off a bit. Regardless, it looks like a great camera at a fantastic price.

 

[Demetri Zuev]

Here's my 2 cents.

First of all - I don't consider Mg Weapon as a viable option for an upgrade. It's go CF or go home. Producers won't care about Mg the same way they don't care about Scarlet now, people like to get top of the line stuff when renting. And Mg is only 10-15% better than Epic Dragon, that's about it, not worth spending imo. And yes, ProRes won't be selling this camera like an Alexa, selling to producers I mean.

So if you want to get a CF Weapon, you know the deal, it's nowhere near the price of a used Epic Dragon and it's just a very heavy investment, but it'll go on projects regularly, no doubt about it. But again the upgrade cost, the new accs ecosystem, everything, that's just a sh*tload of money from where I stand (individual owner, not a rental house).

As for Raven, it's an enthusiast small self-production camera, good for folks just starting their companies or as a crash cam for something big.

I doubt that the yet unannounced middle DSMC2 camera will top Epic Dragon for one simple reason - other than ProRes Epic Dragon =(basically)= Mg Weapon, and since ProRes is now a must for all sorts of RED cameras (there is ProRes in Raven after all), there is no point for RED to cannibalize Mg sales. So it'll probably be less powerful than either Epic Dragon/Mg Weapon.

It also depends on your market. Some markets demand SXTs with Masterprimes only, some demand only RED Epics or Canon C300s. Which market are you on?

 

[Nick Morrison]

Here's my 2 cents.

First of all - I don't consider Mg Weapon as a viable option for an upgrade. It's go CF or go home. Producers won't care about Mg the same way they don't care about Scarlet now, people like to get top of the line stuff when renting. And Mg is only 10-15% better than Epic Dragon, that's about it, not worth spending imo. And yes, ProRes won't be selling this camera like an Alexa, selling to producers I mean.

I used to think this way as well (about Magnesium's "inferiority"), but no longer do. I believe for 95% of what I do currently, I wouldn't even notice the difference btw Magnesium and Carbon. I shoot btw 5:1 and 8:1 on Epic Dragon today, and I don't see that changing on Weapon.

And I also disagree that Magnesium is just 15% better than Epic Dragon.

With the improved boards and noise floor, I think the gains will be significant - at least for how my team shoots.

And being able to shoot DNXHD internally (which looks like it's on the horizon), will also be a major selling factor.

In the end, when I crunched the numbers, and realized that with 240 mags Magnesium and Carbon record R3Ds almost IDENTICALLY, that's what tipped my hat. With the new $5K drop in price, Magensium looks like fantastic bang for the buck.

As for Raven, it's an enthusiast small self-production camera, good for folks just starting their companies or as a crash cam for something big.

I also disagree that Raven is for "enthusiasts" and "small productions". With the new lower noise floor and internal Prores, I see Raven's being used in a myriad of professional jobs. Don't forget DAREDEVIL was shot on 4K Epic Dragon, and I know of a number of large shoots that have been shooting 4K Dragon.

If anything, Raven will start to democratize the RED community, and place more cameras in people's hands - potentially polarizing the market btw Raven on one side, and Carbon on the other. Which I believe may open up the most VALUE in the middle - Magnesium and the new Scarlet (which may end up being the best value of them all).

 

[Michael Tiemann]

First off, let me say that I don't know anything more than anybody else does about RED's actual plans. However, I try to use data to inform my logic.

Here's my 2 cents.

First of all - I don't consider Mg Weapon as a viable option for an upgrade. It's go CF or go home. Producers won't care about Mg the same way they don't care about Scarlet now, people like to get top of the line stuff when renting. And Mg is only 10-15% better than Epic Dragon, that's about it, not worth spending imo. And yes, ProRes won't be selling this camera like an Alexa, selling to producers I mean.

Disagree. SCARLET DRAGON has about 1/3rd the data rate (max 72MB/sec) of EPIC DRAGON (max 200MB/sec). That factor of nearly 3x is the difference between being able to shoot 6K at a wide range of frame rates and not being able to shoot 6K at 24p, let alone 25p, 30p, 60p, etc. That factor of 3x is also the difference between being able to shoot 4K60p at REDCODE 13:1 vs. 4K60p at REDCODE 5:1 and/or 4K120p at REDCODE 9:1. Those are really qualitatively different.

On the other hand, the difference between W CF (max 300MB/sec) and W Mg (max 225MB/sec) is 1/3rd, not as in 1/3rd of the performance, but 1/3rd less performance. And the difference between Mg and EPIC DRAGON (200 MB/sec) is 12.5% (which often rounds down to 10% or less because REDCODE lives in integer-land). If you are the kind of producer who will happily pay a 100% premium for 33% more performance, more power to you! But EPIC DRAGON has already proved it can delivery feature-film performance, so why pay any premium at all for a 50% improvement? (Answering my own question: if you want to shoot 8K, which I do, then you need W CF, which is why I have ordered a W CF. But I am happy to have 6K cameras for B and C angles, and I don't see any reason to buy beyond W Mg for 6K.)

So if you want to get a CF Weapon, you know the deal, it's nowhere near the price of a used Epic Dragon and it's just a very heavy investment, but it'll go on projects regularly, no doubt about it. But again the upgrade cost, the new accs ecosystem, everything, that's just a sh*tload of money from where I stand (individual owner, not a rental house).

Indeed. And from where I stand, the extraordinary extra expense of the W CF is really only justified if (1) you want/need an 8K sensor, (2) you want/need 4K ProRes (or other proxy), and (3) maybe if you want/need that extra bit of horsepower to get the lowest compression on your HDR footage.

As for Raven, it's an enthusiast small self-production camera, good for folks just starting their companies or as a crash cam for something big.

RAVEN is a fireball for people who want 4K as their max format. The 140 MB/sec data rate solidly out-classes SCARLET DRAGON, and the purported 1/2 stop of lower noise floor plus better OLPF, image quality will likely equal--at the same resolution size--what comes out of an EPIC DRAGON sensor today. Which, again, is "good enough" for major production work.

I doubt that the yet unannounced middle DSMC2 camera will top Epic Dragon for one simple reason - other than ProRes Epic Dragon =(basically)= Mg Weapon, and since ProRes is now a must for all sorts of RED cameras (there is ProRes in Raven after all), there is no point for RED to cannibalize Mg sales. So it'll probably be less powerful than either Epic Dragon/Mg Weapon.

I doubt it, but for a totally different reason (nothing to do with cannibalization). The W Mg already tops the EPIC DRAGON by a very small amount (typically less than 10% in practice). Why on earth would RED go about designing, qualifying, and reserving production space for yet another set of boards to fit somewhere between 200MB/sec and 225MB/sec? By the same token, with RAVEN's boards capable of producing 140 MB/sec data rates, if there were to be a happy medium between W Mg and RAVEN, it would be around 180 MB/sec. But can they really support a 4th logic board design when they are trying to produce a 2nd low-cost camera? People are thrilled with RAVEN's data-rate specs, but they want an interchangeable lens mount and they want a 6K sensor. So why not integrate the best of SCARLET DRAGON and RAVEN into a standard aluminum WEAPON body? Such a move will not cannibalize sales, BECAUSE EVERY SALE OF SUCH A CAMERA BODY IS A SALE!!! RED have already stated, with the RAVEN, that their low end is not "W Mg or bust". If they can sell RAVEN profitably at the price they are selling it, and they could sell SCARLET profitable at the price they are selling it, they can sell this hybrid profitably somewhere between the price of the two, and they can sell more total cameras because there's obviously a gap in both functionality and price point between RAVEN and W Mg.