Apple - "Post PC World"

[Ethan Cooper]

An interesting little line from Apple's WWDC keynote:
They claim that we're living in a 'post PC world'. This is an interesting philosophy since smart phones and tablets seem to be on their way to replacing many people's need for traditional home computers, but it's also slightly worrying for power users in the sense of where Apple might eventually take their product line.

Let's discuss.

 

[Alexander Ibrahim]

I don't think you'll have any important changes in Apple's short or mid-term strategies. I think Apple understands that the computer is a core element of their business.

In the long term however, the question of whether or not Apple will continue to make Mac Pro's is largely meaningless. Sort of like asking, "What's north of the north pole?"

The nature of computing is changing rather dramatically.

Todays model of lots of computers that handle the entire human computer interaction/processing/storage is going away.

That said, what will replace it is much more interesting.

You'll own a number of interface devices with which you interact. An iPad is an example. It will have some compute capacity in it - in fact probably a lot more than the current MacBook Pro- but a trifling amount by the standards of its time. The vast majority of consumers will only have this type of device.

Don't think of these devices merely as an iPad like device though. The iPad is a touch smaller than A5 paper ... future devices will be A4 and larger up to A0 ... maybe even Arch sizes. (Those are paper sizes by the way, and ones chosen carefully in the last century or so.) Remember ... these things may compute, but they are really interface devices. Most interfaces will be touch screen, but some will have tactile components, buttons, levers switches, knobs etc. The most common and generic devices will be tablets though - like the iPad.

You'll have access to a few "computers" that just compute. Most people will just rent access to a "cloud computer." Most people will very rarely, if ever, call on the cloud computer for actual computation, but they'll use it for storage and backup and synchronization. Some common items will have computers installed in them - like cars. That, pooled in combination with the compute capacity in the interfaces, will be enough for most people.

As a film maker or other high end computer user, you'll own your own actual computer though. You may own more than one. Essentially these are just the future equivalent of a Mac Pro, but you won't use it like you use a Mac Pro today. You'll use it like a university might use a supercomputer. It will be powerful enough to drive the dozens, if not hundreds of interfaces in your life, from tablet devices to entertainment displays (what we might call a "TV" will be a huge multitouch interface device in the future.) You'll be able to serve your whole family, or a small business simultaneously with just one such device.

Certain professionals (scientists, doctors, engineers, architects and media folks) and serious enthusiasts will need additional storage pools. Think ZFS Storage pools if you know them, SAN's if you don't.

Your "operating system" will be much more dynamically constructed, sort of like Bell Labs Plan 9, which let you not only pool storage a la ZFS, but also dynamically create computational clusters. Of course unlike Plan 9 it will be from the future and look like it. (Plan 9 looks like 1988 wants its computer back!)

So ... if that sounds like Star Trek, its because its the future.

For today though ... OS X, Apple hardware and the applications you need to work in media will continue to be evolved version of what you are used to for some time still.

 

[Petr Dvorak]

nobody knows

 

[Dan Blanchett]

I am still waiting for my brainstem implant so I can access wikipedia or google translate with a mere thought, and regurgitate it to the person in front of me like I know what I'm talking about.

Actually, I just want to know if I should buy a new MacBook Pro now, or wait for the rumored Thunderbolt enabled, slimmed down Mac Pro that is allegedly rack mountable. My old MBP is getting long in the tooth.

 

[Alexander Ibrahim]

I am still waiting for my brainstem implant so I can access wikipedia or google translate with a mere thought, and regurgitate it to the person in front of me like I know what I'm talking about.

Actually, I just want to know if I should buy a new MacBook Pro now, or wait for the rumored Thunderbolt enabled, slimmed down Mac Pro that is allegedly rack mountable. My old MBP is getting long in the tooth.

Oh that's easy get the new MBP now! Who knows when Apple will get around to releasing the Mac Pro with the new bells and whistles.

Especially if you are replacing an older MBP... the new one is stupid fast. Its faster than the current model quad core Mac Pro's, and almost as fast as the 6 core.

Of course, the Sandy Bridge Xeon based Mac Pro's are going to be insane even without Thunderbolt - which they are certain to have. I aim to have both.

 

[Subhadip Sen]

It's probably just a way to acknowledge that 70% of their revenues come from smartphones, media players and tablets, as opposed to 20% for their PCs.

 

[Alexander Ibrahim]

It's probably just a way to acknowledge that 70% of their revenues come from smartphones, media players and tablets, as opposed to 20% for their PCs.

Context lost. I'm guessing that you mean "Apple's discussion of 'a post PC world' is just a way of acknowledging that 70% of their revenues come from smartphones, media players and tablets, as opposed to 20% for their PCs."

Is that correct?

 

[Craig Schober]

It's probably just a way to acknowledge that 70% of their revenues come from smartphones, media players and tablets, as opposed to 20% for their PCs.

apple has been using this "post pc world" phrase ever since they introduced the original ipad. the reason they continue to use it is because now their competition has also begun to adopt the phrase despite selling little to no post pc devices themselves. like apple or not, that is the definition of "industry leading".

 

[Tom Lowe]

Post PC world? What a joke.

Can I process my Epic footage on an iPad 2?

 

[Roberto Lequeux]

They have a slight added benefit from coining that phrase...

But sure, Personal Computers --i.e. desktops-- might soon be reserved for professionals with jobs on the leading edge of processing power requirements. From the standpoint that professionals are not "the world", it makes a great deal of sense.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Post PC world? What a joke.

Can I process my Epic footage on an iPad 2?

iPad 3! lol

 

[Tom Lowe]

Rumors of the demise of the desktop have been grossly exaggerated.... for decades. It's still going strong.

 

[Alexander Ibrahim]

Rumors of the demise of the desktop have been grossly exaggerated.... for decades. It's still going strong.

I hope in my futurist rant earlier I didn't discount this entirely.

I just think fewer and fewer people need them.

Think about it ... first people started buying laptops because they did everything they needed. Then they bought net books - same reason. Now tablets - most often iPad 2- does everything they want.

There is a lot to consider there. Part of what iOS (and Android) do is shed all the stuff that's useless to modern users, while piling in new features that are now essential (like radio data connections) Part of it is the miniaturization of older technology, plus specific hardware to address modern needs. iPad 2 can't handle Epic footage for sure ... but then again neither could the fastest supercomputer in the world in 1994.

I think iPad 3 will be able to play back 3K R3D footage about as well as a Core 2 laptop. (Of course then we run into disk capacity/bandwidth issues - which I expect will take longer to solve than the processing requirements!)

I'm still buying faster and faster desktops though ... because I need more power, and I'm increasingly in the minority.

 

[Roberto Lequeux]

I agree Tom, there is no demise, they are just getting smaller.

 

[Michael McLaughlin]

Maybe it's more about the portal in.

Maybe it's more about the portal in.

Just thinking about how Icloud and all that are swirling, I can still see a
desktop in the future but more regulated to a headless server sort of deal.

Hell maybe even no real major storage (iCloud takes care of that) but super
beefy processors and specialized graphics cards etc. connected thru ThunderBolt.

You would use your TV or ipad or iphone (like some do now) to access it, but really
just as a processor/router/DVR etc. which is connected to the internet.

 

[Alexander Ibrahim]

Just thinking about how Icloud and all that are swirling, I can still see a
desktop in the future but more regulated to a headless server sort of deal.

Hell maybe even no real major storage (iCloud takes care of that) but super
beefy processors and specialized graphics cards etc. connected thru ThunderBolt.

You would use your TV or ipad or iphone (like some do now) to access it, but really
just as a processor/router/DVR etc. which is connected to the internet.

I agree, I even feel as though I've seen something like that written before.

 

[Michael McLaughlin]

Damn Alexander,

So sorry about that (I think I skipped your post because I was skimming
and it was a little long for me at that point).

Looks up with a little egg on the face; "but I think I might-a done a good job
in summing it up?"

again sorry.

 

[Bob Gruen]

There will always be people with an ownership mentality that will want to physically posses the hardware, software, and media that is theirs. I for one would not trust my media to 'the cloud' which is a shipping container outfitted with hundreds of thousands of disk drives, power supplies, CPUs, and an air conditioning system. I'm funny that way. Doubtful that communications hardware would ever be able to supply enough bandwidth to properly color grade 4K footage, in real time, from a cloud node (that could be next door or on the other side of the world). Google "backblaze pod" to see something akin to what they are probably using.

There are also legal reasons why companies cannot leverage such paradigms (these types of laws don't change often). Laws like a company's financial information must remain within its country's physical borders. Several countries have this legal requirement (and having to dupe partial DBs to other countries and still satisfy their legal requirements is something I used to be heavily involved in). Also, don't you think that once a great deal of information that we depend on is located in a few concentrated areas that they would become a terrorist target? This is why high speed trains are a bad idea, but that's another topic for a different board.

The vision is cool and predictable. Apple has created a lot of really cool devices that have one shortcoming: storage space. The solution: simple on line storage space. The PC is dead? Nonsense, it will be alive and processing long after we are all long gone.

Bob

 

[Terry VerHaar]

I am old enough to remember when a 10MB drive as all the storage you ever thought you'd need and a connection speed of 600 kbps was really fast. And it wasn't all THAT long ago. :mellow: Things change. :bored:

 

[Tom Lowe]

I agree Tom, there is no demise, they are just getting smaller.

They are getting MORE POWERFUL. We have to understand that the future of all humanity is intricately linked to the exponential expansion of computational power. There are simply things you can never do on an iPad, that you can do on a powerful desktop-type computer. Do you think the iPad 6 will crunch the numbers to reach general artificial intelligence? Okay, sure, some day the iPad device itself will go onto a dock and thus will mimic a desktop, but at that point, it's still just a portable desktop. If you think you need a lot of computing power now for 5K REDCODE, you aint seen nothing yet.

Our entire fate is intertwined with increases in computing power.