Another fear...

[Peter McCully]

I honestly never imagined myself purchasing a Scarlet aside from the original $3000 version. But with the announcements in (not final announcements but they well may be) I see myself purchasing a Scarlet FF35, then diving in for the big 645 later. It's the smartest choice and it leaves me with multiple brains to which I can hot swap modules when my 645 does come in.

Again, the Epic-X & S35 models are (As far as I can see) bound for low sales and demand.

This is my current thinking also. Although no doubt things will change considerably over the coming year. I wonder if it is better to hold back the R1 trade in for when the Monstros do come out. So, getting the Scarlet to initially buy in to the system, get the peripherals and be making use of them from the start then having the serial number priority with the R1 when Epic is ready.

 

[Alexander Nikishin]

Here's how it breaks down for me Michael....

For starters, it's already been established that everyone wants Monstro. The added 2 stops of DR are the most wanted feature to many including myself.

The lowest cost model that has this FF35 Monstro sensor is the Scarlet FF35. The cost of the FF35 Scarlet is $10K plus let's say for the sake of safety that all the necessary modules will cost an additional $5K. $15K total.

So for $15K total I've got a Scarlet FF35 with a Monstro sensor, I've got all the necessary modules which can later be used on my 645 (or FF35 Epic pacakge for the sake of others). So all I would then need to do at a later date is trade in my R1 and purchase the 645 brain.

Now I've got my 645 brain and all the necessary modules to run it. PLUS, I've got a Scarlet FF35 brain just in case a production has a small budget and can't afford the features found on my 645. So, I've effectively become a one-stop shop for rentals all the way down to the film school budgets, all the way up to the large budget shows.

Now to hit on your points.....

1) As mentioned before the timing is quoted as about six months earlier and given the new technology of monstro it is more likely to be delayed.

I'd rather invest smartly and wait the 6 months rather than spend money for the sake of being "ahead of the pack".

2) Don't forget the extra cost of CF module, Battery Module, I/O Module.

I'll have all the modules necessary for either of my brains.

3) Redcode 250 versus 100. We don't know what this means exactly, but one of the supposed advantages of Arri and others is their true RAW recording. Presumably this gets us much closer.

I've read elsewhere that these numbers don't necessarily relate to the bit rate so that is yet to be found as an advantage.

4) Frame rates: 125 vs 30 is a pretty big jump.

Again, productions can always rent an Epic brain if high speed is needed.

5) Ramping: not available on scarlet S35 or FF35 and this seems like an important feature on highend commercials and maybe a potentially overused but still desirable option for regular and indie movies.

Ramping is a cool feature, but it is also easily accomplished by shooting at your target slowest frame rate and ramping in post.

7) Perceived market value. ~12K gets you a ~12K scarlet with modules. 10.5K plus your (somewhat obsolete. sorry...) RED gets you a $30,000+ Epic (with included accessories) and if those prices hold at all or close, then your asset value is much better.

We're talking about spending (And here's my blind guesstimate again) an additional $5K on modules. That's a price well worth paying IMO.

 

[Steven Parker]

The thing I'm trying to figure out is - what is Red going to do with those R1 bodies that get traded in?

There must be a plan for them....:detective2:

 

[Alexander Nikishin]

Museum pieces?

 

[Alexander Nikishin]

One main point that I forgot to add Michael was that if I did trade in my R1 for the Epic-X, I'd then lose my $17.5K trade in value and would have to then re-sell my Epic-X in order to recoup enough money for the 645 (Or in most people's case the Epic FF35).

The re-sale value is a very loose number as of now but I'd say it will sell back for around $20K. That means that I have to first off worry about selling it to someone, second off I now have to purchase the 645 for $43K, leaving me spending $23K for my 645, now I have to hop back in line in order to secure a Scarlet FF35 to fill the low end of my rentals.

With that being said, it seems much smarter to just start off with the low-end of my brains (The S-FF35) and add on the 645 later and not even have to worry about re-sales.

 

[Poi Boy]

Lots of good stuff to think about on this thread. I think it is important to note that we have not seen any images from a mysterium x sensor yet. If it turns out to be an amazing sensor, that would have a big effect on my decision.
Aloha
-A

 

[Esteban Sosnitsky]

But surely there will be an upgrade path from there, I mean, would RED receive our old Epics for the new ODYSSEY with the Monstro-x-treme?

 

[nick allsop]

what is wrong with s35

what is wrong with s35

pro glass is pl mount. s35 is a standard in cinema ff35 is not. ff35 glass is stills glass and is not going to be ideal. yes i want the best sensor but i want it to fit current pro sizes. i'm hoping the epic x select would allow an upgrade to a monstro s35 size sensor when one is designed instead of swapping the whole brain, i'm just guessing what the "SELECT" means.
i'm worried that red might be spending to much time working on unproven formats instead of just being ahead of every body else with current ones.
we are still waiting for the pl mount red primes, red are now going to make 8 more cameras and loads of different lenses with different lens mounts. it will all get very confusing.

 

[Jaime Vallés]

Again, the Epic-X & S35 models are (As far as I can see) bound for low sales and demand.

It's anyone's guess, but I actually think the opposite will happen. The S35 Scarlet is scheduled to come out first, Summer '09, followed closely by the S35 Epic X & 2/3"-i Scarlet. I feel that people are going to go nuts when those come out, and will purchase them instantly. S35, 5K, 72fps bursts... That's really all you need for a major motion picture, except for the 13 stops of DR. But Monstro FF sensors are going to take a while (currently scheduled for 1/2 year after S35 Scarlet & Epics ship.)

The delay between Monstro cameras and Mysterium X cameras will determine how well the S35 models sell.

 

[Hrvoje Simic]

Brook do you think Jim should build his cameras based how they affect one another in the cinema rental market or based on what is possible and how much they cost to design and build? The former is essentially what every cinema camera manufacturer has been doing for 40 years.

If I was a genius entrepreneur trying to find a market for my amazing low cost camera body, I'd be looking at the potential millions of still photographers versus thousands of cinematographers. I'd know that the still photographers would not pay $30K for my camera but would need access to my best sensor technology. I'd be eager to get those potential customers invested in my product line.

I think Ian said it very well...I was also thinking this way...

So....
people wanted high resolution, high framerate, low compression camera.
This and that features. Jim said okay...but it would cost you. People said okay, make us one.
Jim did. Enters Epic.

It is my understanding that Scarlet was a logical path from RED. Better sensor, smaller size, lighter, financially more reachable. Even greater tool for even more artists. That sounds like RED philosophy.

I'm guessing that he added Epic just because people asked for it and he realized he could. He said framerates are expensive.


Wanting RED to keep high pricing for the technology it can offer for lower price is wanting RED to be Sony, IMO.


If there is a fear of investing in Epic because of Scarlet's features...the answer is pretty easy.
Buy Scarlet.

I'm sure Jim won't have sleepless nights over this.
I don't think he started making cams to make rental houses happy.

 

[Harry Clark]

Lots of good discussion here.
For the markets that I serve, the cost of the body is a small part of the package price of a camera. If I had to knock a few hundred off the rental price of my Epic I would not care.
I like Leo's idea of taking advantage of the S35 Epic-X trade in, AND getting a FF35 Scarlet. I would put them both in the case as a package deal. A backup body plus options. I'd offer it for my current rental price of the Red One.
It's currently a confusing situation, but things will be clearer as these cameras are developed further. The key is to find your niche and see what value you add to the equation.
And it's OK to have a business plan, by the way. It's the film business, not the film hobby!
Cheers,
Harry

 

[wardovision]

My personal opinion: Scarlet models should not have been designed beyond 2/3" chips.

They have to sell a lot of cameras, and the S35 scarlets are sure to sell like hotcakes. So perhaps, while RED has not done the best thing for the professional market, they HAVE done the best thing for the their business.

Jay

So you don't think that they should make the model that's going to sell "like hotcakes"? Sounds to me like a few customers need to rethink their stratagies and not the other way around.

Furthermore, I'm astounded that people are actually asking for features to be crippled in ANY model. We've already have that for years with Sony and Panasonic and that's the last thing we need from RED. Sure it might be good for you in the short term but in the end everyone loses. (except for maybe Panasonic capitalizing on the hole left by RED if they did actually listen)

 

[Meryem Ersoz]

I don't think that anyone is suggesting "crippling" anything, and I think the people using that phrase should lay down that sword.

But if you are going to have a product line, with a distinct price hierarchy, then that price hierarchy should also make sense. And the distinctions among feature sets should make sense as well. Folks have suggested distinguishing by sensor, by chip size -- whatever. The point is, that the current distinction appears to be by frame rate and more resolution, and those are not necessarily the most desirable features in a given camera.

I'm sure that Jim thought he was responding positiviely to all the yackety-yak about why won't he build a 1000 fps camera with this standards revision, but many users, myself included, would much prefer more latitude over more ability to overcrank.

So the struggle is, why do I want an EPIC X with a Mysterium-X sensor versus a much cheaper FF Monstro-equipped SCARLET?

I think the sense that you can have whatever you want by buying more brain is somehow being offset by the sense that there are some trade-offs baked into the new standards. Current RED ONE users have several dilemmas from which to choose -- none of which are bad -- but they are dilemmas.

Each of us has to figure out what you are willing to give up versus the price point you can afford, unless, of course, you can afford it all, and then there is nothing to discuss. That is all. That uncertainty is what this discussion is about.

For me, I am stuck between wanting a great cross-grade into the modular system with the EPIC-X or hanging onto RED ONE and seeing if a Monstro upgrade becomes available.

Step into the modular future or stick with the RED ONE's upgradeable sensor program?

Lightweight FF SCARLET for more cash-ola, or already paid-for heavy RED ONE?

Dilemmas, dilemmas.

Forget this fear-mongering about crippling cameras. That's just b.s. Everyone just wants the most for the least, and no one wants to feel that they are making an unexamined choice....

 

[Michael Hastings]

This is from my post on the Monstro thread, but I think it may be useful here.

And just how much do you think the "Sensor" would cost?

The "Brain" is the sensor. The circuitry necessary to capture and transmit the image from the sensor, and the sensor itself, are inextricably linked. You can't have one without the other.

The price reflects the cost of the sensor as well as the cost of the processor needed to render the image stream from that sensor.

If all I need is a FF sensor I gain absolutely no benefit having the processor from a 645 and I shouldn't have to pay for it.

Conversely, if you want a 9K (or 28K) image you will also have to bear the cost of the processor that will support it.

The brain is a component of the camera, the brain by itself will not produce an image.

The design of epic allows you to choose exactly the sensor you need to create the camera that you want. That camera will consist of at least a dozen other parts and modules.

If your needs change, then you have the ability to replace just the exact part that you need to be change; all your other components stay the same.

Higher performance always costs more, there is no way to get around that.

"I think you are right, many people seem to think that changing the sensor is all that has to happen. Jim has already said they are moving to ASICs for the EPICs and Scarlets. It will probably be something along the lines of the DIGIC chips Canon has in their cameras and it may be a matter of Scarlet 3K only needs a single "REDIC" chip where others may use 2,3,4,8 or whatever working in parallel. Not only would it require more "REDIC" chips as you move up the scale but some type of bridging software and hardware, with development, hardware, and support costs for those spread out over a much smaller number of cameras.

While it would be great if there was a trade-in upgrade path from epic x to FF monstro I can see how this may not be feasible. I think the answer to the tradein for epic x or wait for monstro will boil down to where you are in the program. As an early number - RED 206 - I suspect it will make sense for me to grab an EpicX early on and make money with it while it is hot even if my ultimate goal is Monstro. REDONE owners farther down the line will have a harder decision. However, I do expect (although fine with being pleasantly surprised) that we should be reading the expected delivery dates as monstro being 1.5 to 2 seasons behind and closer to six months than three months. The monstro based cameras are more likely to be pushing the envelope and require more testing and tweaking before ready, and since it is likely to become the flagship, RED may want it to be a bit more mature at release than maybe the EpicX where RED knows that the previous redone owners are a little more risk tolerant and use to debugging on-the-fly.

In thinking about it, it seems to me my upgrade path is EpicX ASAP and the accessories included probably mean the upgrade really only costs $7K or so - and then a Scarlet FF monstro. Scarlet FF Monstro becomes the main camera for higher dynamic range and bit depth at normal frame rates. EpicX becomes my high speed camera. And both brains are available as backup to each other. In either case, I hope we have good smart mount support for Canon still lenses. EpicFF will become the do it all camera farther down the line and for new purchasers at the higher end."

PS A final thought. A while back - at about build 13 - Jim said if the camera never got better he could be happy for the rest of his life shooting with it as it was, and realistically that is how I feel about the REDONE - I can easily see how it can be better and I will upgrade because I can make business sense out of it. But in reality, if all I ever had was a REDONE I can see that it is all I really NEED pretty much for the foreseeable future. It produces far better pictures overall than the HDCAM/Varicams that I didn't buy because I couldn't make sense out of the minimal jump I got from the Z1/HVX style cameras (and I spent 30-40K on SD cameras in the 90s so it wasn't being afraid to spend that kind of money). The REDONE may not be the best 2 years from now but in reality it will suffice for virtually all network/documentary production and indy film production then and into the future.

Essentially, RED has shown you what is likely to be the entire market capability over the next 10 years. We are currently in a rapid improvement/development cycle as we moved from 3 chip small chip SD/HD cameras to CMOS/DSLR crossover to Motion picture technology and REDONE was really a convergence and implementation of what was available. Monstro is likely to hit the next "shelf" in sensor/camera technology with resolution and dynamic range that truly matches or exceeds film and probably meets a level that will truly last, without any significant quality compromise, for the rest of my lifetime.

Instead of the normal situation where SonyPan dribbles out the technology, with no roadmap for us and we have to constantly wonder "do I buy now, or wait so I don't get hammered when they introduce the next big leap that they knew about all along" - RED is not only giving us good choices at every budget level, but actually laying out the entire program for us, so we can make informed choices with an awareness of what is coming and how that factors into our current decisions.

 

[Esteban Sosnitsky]

Furthermore, I'm astounded that people are actually asking for features to be crippled in ANY model.

I am so tired of the cripple thing.

Expressing an opinion should be an element of discussion, but this is so nonconstructive.

 

[Mark K.]

I'm also rather confused by the people who think the Scarlet and Epic cameras shouldn't have any comparable features (namely large S35mm and FF sensors). Like any company that offers a range of products the bulk of Red's sales are going to come from the lower end of the lineup.

Are these people worried about keeping Red out of the red (so to speak)? Scarlet cameras will most likely make Red far more money than Epic ever will. And that's perfectly normal. Think of how much Sony makes from selling F23s and F35s; now imagine how much more they make (proportionally) from selling XDCAMs; then their prosumer cameras; then finally their consumer cameras.

It called: "economies of scale"

 

[JohnF]

It called: "economies of scale"

Yep! I believe that the Sony Z1 sold thirty thousand units over a 12month period bringing Sony a cool £90million in sales. I suspect that is slightly more than their professional 1080 cameras did over the same period. (sarcasm)

And bare in mind that the Z1 was just a marginally improved miniDV camera...

JohnF

 

[Joel Kaye]

What we are facing is brand dilution.

Imagine the playing field when the plethora of Red camera models is on the street, a dizzying array of imager sizes and accessories.

Will the "Red" brand be enhanced by thousands of fixed-lens Scarlets proclaiming themselves to be "Reds?"

Will we enjoy trying to explain to producers, a group not lauded for technical expertise, that our Epic is better than a Scarlet? What if it isn't??? The cool color scheme of the Epic X may not look so hot when a 10K Scarlet is beating it like a rented mule.

Leo

Just got to read this thread now and I agree with Leo and Brook.

To me Scarlet and EPIC now seem more like Scarlet and Scarlet HS (high speed) and Scarlet 645 etc.

EPIC and Scarlet shouldn't share the same chips... the break between the lines should be on form factor really. Scarlet should have remained a truly consumer pocket camera as originally envisioned.

The EPIC line should have replaced RED and the entry level EPIC still could have been the same as the $7k Scarlet. Right now it's a product matrix cluster f&*k I'm already tired of confused people asking me to explain.

No Scarlet should be arguably better than any EPIC. Simple.

Are these people worried about keeping Red out of the red (so to speak)? Scarlet cameras will most likely make Red far more money than Epic ever will. And that's perfectly normal... economies of scale.

Fine, then Kill Scarlet or EPIC and sell the living daylights out of one great camera because the economies of scale should bring EPIC w/monstro down in cost too, right?

I don't think it's really that simple...

As it stands I'm probably going to sell RED (or the EPIC I upgrade to) to buy a Scarlet... which will put me in the semi awkward position of selling against EPIC... and it'll be really easy for me to sell against EPIC.

In fact, RED will have a forum full of people like Brook poo pooing the added cost of EPIC. That's just a bad future to envision, isn't it?

But if EPIC was a stop faster (for real) and had more dynamic range because it had a Monstro chip then I'd upgrade RED to EPIC. That's something I know I can talk people into using instead of a Scarlet.

 

[Antoine Baumann]

Epic is more than high frame rate to me is has also better compression (or less compression) and that is very important to me.
I also want to shoot s35 cine lens on a s35 sensor, don't ask why that's my feeling.
So epic s35 makes sens to me. Just make a monstro version of it.

And about hot seller, i think the scarlet 2/3 with lens @ less than 4000$ will be the one.

ciaow,
antoine.

 

[Chris Kenny]

The reason the lineup is so confusing, as nearly as I can tell, is that Red basically announced the next two generations of cameras in a single announcement, despite the fact that they're not actually shipping at the same time.

Seriously. If they hadn't done that, the entire announced lineup would be:

Everything would be completely clear and nobody would be freaking out. And current Red One customers would all be really excited about being able to upgrade to Red's new high-end camera at a great price.

The issue is, though, that not only was the third generation of Red cameras announced at the same time as the second, but it's also going to be offered (at least according to the currently posted dates) at an awkwardly close interval. What most companies would probably do in this situation is, instead of introducing the Monstro cameras six months or so after the Mysterium X cameras, and alongside the Mysterium X but at moderately higher price points... wait an extra 12 months, working on getting the price down. At that point, have the new Monstro models replace the Mysterium X models, at the same price points occupied by the Mysterium X models.

But this is Red, so they're basing their product line around what the technology makes possible rather than fitting the technology into products designed according to market considerations. It's now clear this is sometimes going to result in slightly awkward things like third generation sensors following second generation sensors by six months rather than by [industry standard upgrade cycle length].