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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Another fear...

Brook Willard said:
I'm just about out of ideas. That's my film-industry-apocalypse-stream-of-consciousness rant that'll probably get me in trouble. :)
Click to expand...

Brook do you think Jim should build his cameras based how they affect one another in the cinema rental market or based on what is possible and how much they cost to design and build? The former is essentially what every cinema camera manufacturer has been doing for 40 years.

If I was a genius entrepreneur trying to find a market for my amazing low cost camera body, I'd be looking at the potential millions of still photographers versus thousands of cinematographers. I'd know that the still photographers would not pay $30K for my camera but would need access to my best sensor technology. I'd be eager to get those potential customers invested in my product line.

Then I'd go buy an island :biggrin:

I think it's a little early to predict the collapse of the Epic rental market boss. Commercial DPs need to overcrank and they hate windowing. Scarlet will help alot of Indie filmmakers. All is good.

Ian
 
Brook Willard said:
[thread split]

I guess the more that I think about it, the more that I realize that the S35 models are kind of... out of place. Here's my reasoning.

The RED ONE can do 4K@30p, 3K@60p and 2K@120p.

The S35 Scarlet can do 4K [which is the S35mm area] at 30p and 2K@72p. It also has the 5K@72p burst mode for the occasional high-speed shot. It has more dynamic range than a stock RED ONE and a larger sensor [so you can shoot real super 35mm instead of Academy].

So to me, the S35 Scarlet is the RED ONE replacement. Sure you lose a few features... but you gain a few as well. Since the features you lose aren't used by 80% of productions anyway, the S35 Scarlet has that market cornered.

Ignoring discounts, we're talking about a $7,000 camera here.

So that essentially turns the S35 Epic at $28,000 into a high-speed camera. Yes it has a few extra features and a higher quality recording mode... but these aren't features that get used on every shoot and the RC80 mode available on the Scarlet is already better than the RED ONE.

I honestly think that many shoots aren't going to bother renting an Epic for 400% more money because of a few features. The Scarlet is going to kill the S35 Epic.
So now you have a $10,000 camera eating a $33,000 camera's lunch. That was really awesome when the RED ONE came along and ate all of Sony's and Panasonic's lunch... but now it's cannibalism to me.

If somebody outfits a Scarlet package in a professional manner, they will be poised to take 80% of the jobs from Epic owners.

I'm not talking about the guy with a Scarlet, a tiny tripod and a Red Rock matte box. I'm talking about the kind of person who slots a Scarlet body into a nice Arri/O'Connor/Ronford/Element Technica/Anton Bauer/all-the-trimmings camera package.

But I really think that Epic owners will find themselves losing a lot of jobs to the soccer mom camera.

I'm just saying that - all else equal - I don't see a compelling reason for anybody to rent an Epic unless they specifically need higher frame rates or can't live without certain niceties... the niceties that they're mostly living without right now.

I dunno. I'm just about out of ideas. That's my film-industry-apocalypse-stream-of-consciousness rant that'll probably get me in trouble. :)
Click to expand...

Brook:

You make some excellent points and I agree that the Scarlet S35 is the new REDONE for those that didn't purchase the REDONE in the first place.

There are two flaws in your thinking and it has to do with real world business decisions.

1) The S35 Epic X with the necessary addons is really only $10K to a couple thousand REDONE owners. S35 Scarlet is about 9-10K for everyone no matter what you had previously so in reality the new out of pocket will be about the same.

2) more importantly even if you work with the $28K vs 10K number no reasonable business will expect - OR NEED - to get 400% more for a rental. It has to do with the actual monthly cost of owning the camera:

A four year lease/finance on $28K with a dollar buyout at the end will cost about $675 at 10% effective interest (a larger financially solid business should be able to do better) plus about $50 a month in insurance so about $725/month to have the EPIC

A four year lease/finance on $10K with a dollar buyout at the end will cost about $250 at 10% effective interest plus about $25 a month in insurance so about $275/month to have the Scarlet S35.

$725-275=$425 month additional cost to have an Epic. So even if you figured only 4 days or so a month in rentals, in reality the renter only has to get $125 a day more for the Epic to make a better profit.

You probably shouldn't think about REDONE rental rates in trying to figure this out because those rates are all over the map because on the one hand you have picture performance that exceeds F900/Varicam so could justifiably be as much or more, yet the camera (in the eyes of outsiders) was buggy, misunderstood, poor workflow, long bootup times, etc - added to a huge influx of cameras and we have seen those lowball rates of $200/day. By the time we get Scarlet epic most of those things will be behind us so it will be a more "normal" camera in the market place.

Once things settle down, after the initial confusion during the manufacturing rampup, I think you will see rental houses book pricing Scarlet just a little more than they currently do for HVX200/EX-1s and S35 Epic/Xs at Varicam/F900 prices. There won't be much incentive to lower the Scarlet price because - like the HVX/Ex type cameras - the prices are already down in the range where the rental price is more about the cost/hassles of putting out the package/customer service than the actual cost of the equipment.

But the plethora of Epic/X packages in the hands of both rental houses and OwnerOperators will mean it will be much more likely that you can get the Epic packages discounted to that $150 to $200/day over the Scarlet package and due to the financial reality of the lease cost it won't hurt the renter do it if they choose - so there is no inherent financial reason for the Scarlet to eat Epics lunch, those decisions can be made based on whether they think they can maximize profits at a higher price and the same or fewer rentals or a lower price and possibly more rentals. For the end user, if price is imperative they can probably get close to a Scarlet rate, but they also get much higher REDCODE (225 or 250) plus those extra frame rates.

All in all, RED's strategy is a smart one for everyone. The upgrade to EpicX decision for me is an easy one and probably 50% of R1 owners will eventually do so as it is the sweet spot for a serious Digital Cinema Camera - and it will get RED's epic volume to the point where they both can afford to do the EpicX upgrade and the engineering/manufacturing for the full Epic line based on interchangeability of bodies, components, etc. and the larger volume for all - that wouldn't be there if the EpicX upgrade program didn't exist.

However, in terms of market competitiveness, for new RED digital cinema/high end video purchasers, the Scarlet S35 and FF will make the most financial sense AND will provide extremely tough competition for Sony/Panny/Canon/Nikon et al. And the higher end Epics will make sense for those who have need or can justify the additional expense for their exceptional capabilities AND will make it difficult for Sony, Arri, etc. to figure out exactly how to position their DC products.

All of this is irrespective of the rest of the "package" but the analysis is okay because that cost would be the same for either camera.
 
Yeah yeah... those photographer types with their endless masses and market.

You are right.
 
A four year lease?
When I got into RED I thought at the speed Jim's moving the Red One would be on the market for just a couple of years! tops! Now guess what, I have had it for not even 3 months and I am already thinking of how I am going to upgrade in a year.
I think one point in making business with the R1 was to be realistic. Technology is moving faster and faster, and Jim is speeding it up too. Cameras wont be in the market for a long time, just look at what happened with the F23 and the F35. Red moves even faster than the editing suites! They complain about the 4K workflow, what will they do when you show up with 6K material under your arm! I think 4 years is too much these days, just think where Red might be in 4 years.

Red is different, plus its a newborn and I am pretty sure Jim will take care of us. We have to patient but a little speculation didn't hurt anyone, moreover I think this discussion is what makes RED unique.
 
I agree - the Scarlet is an Epic without high frame rates - change that aspect and who would purchase the Epic? Answer - not many people I guess.

I think already that the FF Monstro Scarlet will severely hurt Epic sales and impact negatively on the rental market. Having frame rate options will kill the Epic completely I think - I'm pretty sure I wouldn't want to shell out thirty plus grand for a camera to have a comparable one available for nine. Makes no sense to me. So I guess I'm in favour of limiting technology on the lower range cameras - Red is, after all, a business, not a charity.
 
Following the new line's discussion, what really worries me is where the R1 is left. I think the R1 was extremely popular, and they have seen the niche in scarlet's market. But if the chip is not 2/3 in size, but just as the R1 the jump to Epic doesn't fit into place. Why? Because we have realized how good the R1 is. We now know its more than necessary to produce great images, the scarlet as is, is more than enough. I share Leo's point because it places the Mysterium X at the same spot as the R1: in the middle. If you can upgrade to Monstro, why the M x?
 
after thinking around.....
@tom
no i am against crippling anything....
no crippling no nothing.
-------------------------------------

10k for a FF35.

today i dont want EPIC.
today i just would keep the RED as B-Cam, backup...or sell it if someone wants it when the scarlet is there.(or just upgrade later to a bigger EPIC)

buy an el cheapo back up brain if needed.

For the Rest of my Money i will buy something different.

Lenses Baby.
Cooke s4 or/and Master Primes.

why?

when so many scarlets run around gone wild.....you can seperate by perfect lenses.
 
James T Mather said:
I agree - the Scarlet is an Epic without high frame rates - change that aspect and who would purchase the Epic? Answer - not many people I guess.
Click to expand...

So far, ive shoot 45 days on set with my Red and only use the high speed function twice. I do mainly fiction (23.98 & 29.97 fps), so i dont think i will need Epic... but the Epic X look so sexy !

I will rent the Epic if in the shoot list we need slow mo... or do it in 2k with Scarlet, just like we do right now with the Red1.
 
another point....

i paid aorund 40 000 USD for one RED including 3rd party Hardware (ET etc.) add MB,FF and tripod it ranges independantly between 7k usd to 14 k usd.

thats around 45-47 k for a really workable red rig.

ok lets say someone who hasnt the red one for now and want to buy scarlet s35 for 7k.......i just remove 10k from the 45k usd and what is left is 35k.....without LENSES.

I dont think that people are aware that Aseccoires to get a fully rigged system does cost and will cost.

i dont see a 200 usd/per day scarlet....(excluding the weird guys who do this).

we should stop worrying...there will be NO fully rigged scarlets for 14k usd...
the ones who doesnt have a red yet and are dreaming of buying the scarlet will start the complaing/whining threads when the prices and dimensions for a fully feature ready rig are there.
 
Cuneyt is right.

As I mentioned before, this is not brain on brain action. This is package on package.

75% or so of the people will be happy with the S-FF35 and they will rent the E-FF35 when they need it.

Come to think of it.... the way it is actually might still provide even more separation than I thought.

My final thought is, there are many reasons why Jim is a billionaire and I am not. (yet)

He and the RED team are pretty clever. I am not worried nor upset.
 
ibloom said:
Mike are you going to make a new housing for Epic? New tray?

Ian
Click to expand...

Absolutely, the Epic should be no more difficult to house than RED and a little shorter/smaller.

We could certainly modify RED housings for Epic but usually it is better more sensible to make a new dedicated housing. I think I can make good sense out of allowing a substantial trade in for the RED housings - and would either refurbish/resell or simply spread them around the country at rental houses like Pete Romano did with his Arri Housings and the HMI lights he built for the Abyss.

Every indication is we are almost a year away from Epic availability with a few more months for housings. In order to stimulate RED housing sales and get some people off the fence, I am about to announce a discount and trade in policy that would give people effectively about a 60% trade in value and since the housing price now is $8599 they would be able to use their RED housing for a year or more for a cost of only about $3500 in lost value if they trade it in. And of course that could be even less if they can get more in a resale. The $3500 is a worst case. The other thing is that I could offer an even greater trade-in by simply making a high price on the Epic housing but I don't really want to play the used car tradein game.

By the way, lest someone think I am suggesting in any way that RED is doing that let me make clear that I think the RED case is different. If RED were not doing the REDONE trade in program I suspect that they would sell only a couple hundred Epics in the first year because most people that have REDs could not justify the cost to switch and you would have a much smaller universe of people that could justify those prices (particularly when scarlet will exist as well). However once people think about it for awhile I think they will see that it is foolish NOT to upgrade. The REDONE is a great camera and clearly the best bang for the buck in comparison to anything else out there, BUT it has serious issues with size/weight; power consumption and heat; boot up time; etc. so even if there were not picture quality/frame rate improvements I think you would have to consider upgrading. The fact that we also get much higher data rates (so presumably better recorded picture quality) higher resolution, higher frame rates than REDONE just makes the EpicX upgrade a no brainer. One of our local rental companies - that had resisted buying REDONE - just bought one specifically because of the trade in program. They were waiting for the 2nd gen product but with the trade in they can rent out the R1 for close to a year and then get the camera they wanted at a better deal than just waiting and buying it outright.

I think at least 50% of people will upgrade and this guarantees RED a large number of Epics to get the quantity price breaks for parts and manufacturing costs to make both the upgrade program and the higher level/lower volume Epics feasible. In fact, it seems like even more cameras might get traded in as even those who were stretched to get a REDONE will see that it makes more sense to sell it to someone to trade in and then buy a Scarlet. Which may be a part of the master plan since RED would be getting most of their users on the 2nd generation product.
 
I think one of the most important points to always keep in mind in these discussions is to try to consider many more perspectives than just the ones that are close to your typical production needs.

I believe that what Jim (and the rest of the good folks at RED) are doing is literally testing hundreds of production scenarios when designing these Cameras, deciding their specs, and setting their pricing.

Imagine you are a indie filmmaker fresh out of college with barely any budget. You may consider buying a SCARLET 2/3rd " or S35. (Maybe the FF35 is too expensive). Or, of course, only renting for a while.

Imagine you are a Still photographer you may now like to add high framerate burst modes or even video capture to your business? The DSMCs look good for their size.

Imagine you are a huge rental house in L.A. You want to have the latest and greatest. So you go with the EPIC-X right away, then upgrade to the EPIC FF35 and 645 when they come out.

Imagine you are a documentary maker with run and gun needs but a good budget.

I really believe that Jim is trying to offer solutions to as many customers, both new and repeat, as possible.

Try to keep an open mind and consider these factors which RED must consider for their potential customers needs:

Performance (Features)
Quality (Hardware and Software)
Form Factor
Workflow (On-set and Post)
Support
Third Party Integration
Market (Production Environment Intended / Types of Shooting)
Release Format (DVD, Theatrical, Broadcast, Web, Digital Signage, Print, etc.)
Price (Affordability within particular Market)
Availability (Release Date)

Also consider some of the many factors RED must deal with in creating their products:

Price and Availability of current and new Parts / technology (to manufacture a shipping product)
Funding (Amount of R&D $ to work with, where to spend it)
Price to manufacture (Example: Mass sales = SCARLET fixed lens at lower price)
Market Share (Outside Competition as well as Place within your own Product Line)
Workforce (Amount of Employees and Bandwidth each has for their projects)
Support for current products

I'm just trying to help give perspective to those who may sometimes get caught up in their own world (we all do sometimes). :-) Also, it's good to realize that there probably will never be one Camera that covers every need, but the program RED has in store is probably as close as it gets.

my $.02
 
Michael, I think your 50% RED One owner trade in figure is quiiiite high.

I think 50% will down or upgrade (however you'd refer to it) to the FF35 Scarlet MONSTRO. Or get the $4,500 M-X upgrade or a FF35 Epic.

The Epic X and Epic S35 are set to become the bastard children of the litter IMO.

Long story short, everyone wants Monstro.
 
Alexander Nikishin said:
Michael, I think your 50% RED One owner trade in figure is quiiiite high.

I think 50% will down or upgrade (however you'd refer to it) to the FF35 Scarlet MONSTRO. Or get the $4,500 M-X upgrade or a FF35 Epic.

The Epic X and Epic S35 are set to become the bastard children of the litter IMO.

Long story short, everyone wants Monstro.
Click to expand...

I didn't mean only toward the epic x since the $17500 trade in credit is I believe good on any epic.

In fact I think 50% is low, simply because it will be foolish not to trade it in or sell it to someone that wants to trade it in.

Because of the relatively low cost plus the accessories, the EpicX will be the sweet spot and even though everyone WANTS the Monstro I think a great many will decide to accept the Mysterium X select initially and see how Monstro actually performs before spending the extra 10, 20, or 30K it takes to upgrade to one of the monstro Epics. Not to mention, I expect that you will have six months, or possibly much more, time between EpicX and the availability for the Monstro Epics which is that much more time to make money with the EpicX.

EpicX is just the second generation R1, the full frame and monstro cameras are new technologies with consequently greater chance of delays.

AGAIN, EVERYBODY WANTS MONSTRO, but will it make sense for most people.

PS Although I am a committed Birger/SLR proponent, don't forget that the movie world as it stands - be it cooke, Zeiss, Angenieux, Panavision, etc. or whatever - is an S35 format world. And even when it comes to anamorphic the EpicX - with 5K and custom frame sizes - would handle it quite well.
 
What I'm trying to say Michael is that most people will preferably purchase the FF35 Scarlet rather than the Epic X.

They are the same cost to R1 owners, yet the FF35 Scarlet is Monstro hence my belief that the Epic-X will have poor sales.

If they need high speed, they'll RENT the FF35 Epic.
 
I honestly never imagined myself purchasing a Scarlet aside from the original $3000 version. But with the announcements in (not final announcements but they well may be) I see myself purchasing a Scarlet FF35, then diving in for the big 645 later. It's the smartest choice and it leaves me with multiple brains to which I can hot swap modules when my 645 does come in.

Again, the Epic-X & S35 models are (As far as I can see) bound for low sales and demand.
 
Alexander Nikishin said:
What I'm trying to say Michael is that most people will preferably purchase the FF35 Scarlet rather than the Epic X.

They are the same cost to R1 owners, yet the FF35 Scarlet is Monstro hence my belief that the Epic-X will have poor sales.

If they need high speed, they'll RENT the FF35 Epic.
Click to expand...

Ah, it makes more sense to me now. However, just to extend the discussion (as I would like to figure this out myself...) Here are points in favor of EpicX:

1) As mentioned before the timing is quoted as about six months earlier and given the new technology of monstro it is more likely to be delayed.

2) Don't forget the extra cost of CF module, Battery Module, I/O Module.


3) Redcode 250 versus 100. We don't know what this means exactly, but one of the supposed advantages of Arri and others is their true RAW recording. Presumably this gets us much closer.

4) Frame rates: 125 vs 30 is a pretty big jump.

5) Ramping: not available on scarlet S35 or FF35 and this seems like an important feature on highend commercials and maybe a potentially overused but still desirable option for regular and indie movies.

6) Anamorphic - not on FF35 scarlet. Don't know if it matters

7) Perceived market value. ~12K gets you a ~12K scarlet with modules. 10.5K plus your (somewhat obsolete. sorry...) RED gets you a $30,000+ Epic (with included accessories) and if those prices hold at all or close, then your asset value is much better.
 
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