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Value of a "dead end" Red One?

T

Tim Morten

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Definition of "dead end": not eligible for trade-in (ie - Stage 2 has been exercised).

Stage 2: $19500 (get Epic-x, keep your R1)

Stage 3: $10500 (get Epic-x, trade-in your R1)

Not factoring in the difference in Epic-X accessories between the stages, and not factoring in any MX upgrading on the R1, it seems like a "dead-end" Red One is worth $9000.

Thoughts?

- Tim
 
to new comers to RED (which there will be more and more mainstream), i'd think its worth more than that while RED still sells RED One bodies Mysterium for 17.5k and no other bodies are easily available (getting a used one cheaper + saving tax is a plus). plus a lower serial number red purchased used will be MX eligible way sooner than a new one purchased now. MX RED is a powerful camera and it will be quite some time till Epics are easily purchasable by general public not participating in any stages. i think a lot of value estimate comes down to timing in months/weeks.
 
Your assumption is that stage 2 and stage 3 will saturate the market. It may be wrong.

Your assumption is also forward looking, meaning this may be the future value of R1, but not now.

Even if the resale price of an "exercised" body goes down to $9k or $10k, it seems like a damn good retension of value in comparison to the depreciation of, say an HDCAM going from $70k to about zero in about the same time. Not to mention more expensive, comparable cameras like F35. After all, it is still the same, great camera shooting gorgeous 4k images with few competitors that come close.

And, of course, one has to account all the benefit of the full value upgrade path. It seems like Jim gave all early adopters a very generous deal to buy one and get one free.
 
What I don't think people yet realize is that the RED ONE even with the Mysterium Sensor will still be good enough 20 years from now to shoot a feature film on. Nothing (besides a film camera) made in the last 20 years has ever had that same future potential.

Think about it.

-michael zaletel
 
I'm sure Jim and company has thought out marketing just as much as the technology put behind RED. After all Red can only cannibalize themselves. I'm not worried about the R1 going obsolete for a very long time and if it was going to happen then it should of already. This is beginning to get old. Red for life!
 
Yeah, interesting phenomenon as a result of the generosity of Red. Apparently, some folks are offering up their cameras at prices in the $9k range in order to get their Epic sooner (Stage 2 instead of Stage 3). The window on Stage 2 closes shortly, so it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

- Tim
 
Yes, my guess would be around $9000 for an executed Red One, maybe even less a few months later when the Scarlet S35 starts shipping and every elligible Red One has been upgraded to MX.
I'm afraid a lot of people will chose stage 2 to get their Epic earlier, but will then try to sell their executed Red One to cover some of the aditionnal costs or to buy a Scarlet instead.
So I really wouldn't be surprised if we saw a huge wave of executed Red Ones for sale as soon as stage 2 Epics start shipping.

But the good thing is, $9000 is the difference between stage 2 and stage 3 (even less since you get a 5' LCD instead of a 2.8' LCD), so even if it sells a bit cheaper than that, it should be easy (at least) not to lose money on this.
 
I agree with most of you, even so I think that there are too many variables, and the R1 is a them great Camera, and it will be for long to come, especially when you have upgraded to the MX sensor, truly an incredible upgrade in it self and very well capable to shoot side to side with an Epic!

So I do believe that the value of the R1 will be higher, however I tend to disagree with those trying to get high Premiums, for a camera that is simply put on the way out!

Replaced both by Epic and Scarlet, with the same exact sensor, even so obviously different Red Codes and Frame rates,a s well as form factor.

Also as I already said in an other thread, this time around RED has their S%$#@% together and have learned quite a bit form their first R1 experience, and for this we will see a very different approach to how this cameras will come to market and the quantity in which they will enter the market, so I firmly believe the wait to be much shorter and those paying such Hi premiums to cut the line, will be very sorry they did so!!

Red has already announced a partnership with their long partner in Tokyo to be their first reseller, and others are sure to follow, in order to allow a firm customer service and sale of the Astonishing number of cameras that will enter the market, in demand of the general public.

Furthermore with the incredible success of the R1 in main stream Hollywood and other venues, the Epic is a look after Camera by many Pro's and will be sure to see a higher sale then the R1's and RED knows it and is surely preparing for it.

So careful what people pay for used R1's executed or with Epic upgrade path open.
 
Peter Hodgins said:
so for $14000 .... $9000 plus another lens, I can have a dynamite 3D rig!
Click to expand...
or... you could just buy 2 small Scarlets for a similar price, and have an awesome 3D Rig in a much smaller form factor (think crane, steadicam, etc...), with all the other improvements that the new cameras have to offer. :001_cool:
 
Tim Morten said:
Yeah, interesting phenomenon as a result of the generosity of Red. Apparently, some folks are offering up their cameras at prices in the $9k range in order to get their Epic sooner (Stage 2 instead of Stage 3). The window on Stage 2 closes shortly, so it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

- Tim
Click to expand...

Right now some people are selling their MX'd R1's for 30K+

That'll surely drop off when there's less need, but right now anyone selling them for 9k is getting screwed.
 
Red M's won't lose big value until after Stage 2 ships. Red MX's won't lost big value until after Scarlet ships.

Red MX will keep the Red One viable for another 2 years IMHO. Upgrade your cameras when you get the call. Even if you plan on going Epic.
 
michael zaletel said:
What I don't think people yet realize is that the RED ONE even with the Mysterium Sensor will still be good enough 20 years from now to shoot a feature film on. Nothing (besides a film camera) made in the last 20 years has ever had that same future potential.

Think about it.

-michael zaletel
Click to expand...
that is assuming the current world stops any sort of technical development. in 20 years we ll have iPhones that can shoot 89K so the RED one will not be the desired tool to shoot anything on. Also the TV standard by that time should be about 999999p with 50GB/s of bandwidth.
 
Sounds good to me

Sounds good to me

If someone wants to sell me their RED One for $9,000 I'll take it:thumbup:
 
Are we talking body only?

Are we talking body only?

Are we talking body only, w/stock PL mount and CF module? Or including enough accessories to get it to make pictures....big different. I tell people a RED ONE costs about 30,000 bucks, for a low end well equipped unit that works, has extra bats, storage, etc

As a stage 2 reservee, I plan to sell my R1 Mx-d (if I get a chance before S2) as a complete working package w/accessories, obviously those that are not very useful on EPIC. We also have a legal birger / impero on there, which gets sold.

(yeah, yeah, I know - I should not sell it, but we have good reasons)

So when quoting values, I think what is included is more than a semantic question. We'll include EVF, ET mounts and other ET accessories, extra batteries, cards - and without all that, the body itself is, well, not very handy.
 
Accessories have a different resale value all together, and the 9k is referred to the R1 body only, off course, as this is the actual difference in dollar value after the upgrade, and with it the seller will have lost nothing.

However as stated before, I believe that the R1 value, even so definitely not as high as some think, but surely more then then 9K, but only for the low numbers which can be upgraded to the MX, if the R1 Serial No. is high and the time of the MX upgrade is long, there is no real value, and surely absolutely no worth paying a premium.

R1's will always be great cameras, especially with the MX in it, but once Epic is out followed by Scarlet, then the R1 will be left behind, far behind!
 
Chris Luker said:
I think I'd take one for $9,000ish too instead of waiting for Scarlet...
Click to expand...

How about one with a legal birger Canon EF electronic mount and Impero. Any takers at say $12,500?

Accessories extra but negotiable-prices approx. going rate for used accs.
 
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