Chris Kenny
Well-known member
You can take all of those numbers and make them even smaller -- maybe he's got $10,000 total saved to rent for a one-time production, but what he needs to rent would cost him $30,000 total to buy. Even if he could sell everything back at 100% and essentially have spent zero money, it's all pointless if he doesn't have the original $30,000.
Spending $10K on a short-term rental of something you could buy for $30K is obviously pretty inefficient. In the long run, what I think happens is some combination of:
1) It won't be $30K eventually, it will be $10K or $5K, and our Struggling Indie Filmmaker can just put the thing on a credit card, or
2) Business models emerge in which creative types pool their resources though forming small companies that intend to develop multiple projects, or similar structures.
And I wouldn't call a sub-$200,000 feature "midrange".
Well, the "midrange" was more in reference to the $100K commercials. Which you also might not consider midrange, I don't know. But this difference in perspective sort of tells the entire story, doesn't it? You're approaching this all from the high-end market, which is the last place where the effects will be felt. Down in the trenches, the world is changing practically on a daily basis, and the introduction of Red's new gear could well have a major impact on the viability of rental businesses, if they jump the wrong way.
But sure, if you want to say that the rental model will disappear for those small productions, that may happen -- in fact, it's already happening. But what you said was ""The collapse of the camera rental market is, in fact, part of the democratization of filmmaking", suggesting that there would be a collapse of the entire camera rental market. That's a much broader statement than saying that the rental model for small-budget projects will disappear, leaving the rental houses to cater only to major feature and TV productions.
The thing of it is, the "small budget" stuff is probably more than 90% of the market by volume. And in this thread, I think we're mostly discussing the small shops that own Red gear and are considering future upgrade paths; those shops mostly, I think, rent to that market. So if that market largely stops renting gear over the next five years, or rental prices drop substantially because cheap gear has gotten so good, something will have occurred which I think could be fairly termed a "collapse".
And this probably will eventually filter up, it will just take longer, not least because some major productions will still insist on shooting on $250K worth of camera gear even in world where $15K of camera gear can produce a better image than anything currently on the market at any price (i.e. the world of five years from now, probably), mostly for prestige reasons.