How many Scarlet cameras a month

[Eugene Lehnert]

How many Scarlet cameras can RED make a month? I am around SO # 8500 so I"m guess I'll see a camera close to next year?

 

[Robert L. Mickles]

How many Scarlet cameras can RED make a month? I am around SO # 8500 so I"m guess I'll see a camera close to next year?

From what I understand they could make tons more than they need in a month, they're just waiting on certain parts. Next year? How many do you think are ordered, millions? From the looks of it the orders are most likely in the hundreds, but 2000 at most. It's not quite that severe. RED is increasing the amount that they make/ship per week, not decreasing. Also, those SO# don't apply only to Scarlets, They apply to everything that is bought from RED over the years. So no you are not the 8500th Scarlet order. I would say most people who ordered at this point should have them by march. Hope this puts you a bit at ease.

 

[Phil Holland]

More than 2000 orders by a couple times. And that was last December.

As Robert has mentioned, Red has been ramping up production on Scarlets (and everything else as well) to help fulfill orders more quickly. Buy February/March 2012 I imagine things in general will be much easier to acquire.

 

[Kamal Kyrala]

I love how optimistic some of you are. They haven't even shipped a thousand scarlets, and it's been two months. On top of that, Jarred didn't even mention it in his backorder update (you have to love his cheeky question if he forgot anything). If they were really planning on getting out of backorder anytime soon, i'm fairly certain they would be providing estimates.

 

[Eugene Lehnert]

I don't see how all the orders could be fulfilled by March at the rate the cameras are shipping.

 

[Robert L. Mickles]

I love how optimistic some of you are. They haven't even shipped a thousand scarlets, and it's been two months. On top of that, Jarred didn't even mention it in his backorder update (you have to love his cheeky question if he forgot anything). If they were really planning on getting out of backorder anytime soon, i'm fairly certain they would be providing estimates.

Not trying to be mean or start an argument with you, but If you really think its gonna take a year to get your camera then why don't you just cancel it? You seem to be very (unjustifiably) negative in my opinion every time the issue comes up, and you seem to have no faith in RED's manufacturing capabilities. Again not trying to be mean or argue, we're all friends here. But If I had your mindset, I'd wait until next year when I figure they will be abundant or not consider a camera at all from a company I had no faith in. According to your logic you seem to think that they will get slower and slower, not faster and faster.

On another note, I still stand by the fact that I don't think the orders are even in the thousands yet. I know it's a highly anticipated camera, but the information presented leads me to believe that there aren't that many orders yet. There are many who want them but just can't go pick $14K or so off a tree. It's not meant to be a camera in every household. Although it is highly anticipated, the actual market for it that can afford it isn't as big as most seem to think. Most seem to think that it's selling to a market thats as big as a Canon Rebel and it's not. I'm not saying anything bad about RED here, but I'm sure they know this too. And even if I am right they are as many as they expected at this point.

Another thing that supports what I'm saying about the volume of orders is the list. Now I know it's not 100% accurate at all, but I feel it does give us some legitimate data. I feel that at least 80-90% of the people who order are going to come on here and engage in the community and the list. Obviously not everybody will, theres some who just order a camera or two because it may be a good business move and not even know about the community here. But if you're figuring that the majority are going to come on here and participate in the list, then thats something to backup my theory. Last I checked the list had only between 500-600 orders. So there you go.

 

[Kamal Kyrala]

I don't see how all the orders could be fulfilled by March at the rate the cameras are shipping.

I'd wager money they won't be out of back-order in March. If they were on target they would be providing more information. I've mentioned it before, but they are loosing orders over not being able to estimate shipping - I nearly canceled mine when I was initially shocked at their slow delivery rates. It's a drop in the bucket for them, but if they felt confident about March it wouldn't be rational to keep that secret - they know it looks unprofessional. I don't think they have mature enough supply lines to be able to hit the targets they estimate with any degree of confidence.. so until they provide firm dates and not estimates, I'd be thinking in terms of months/quarters and not days/weeks.

 

[Kamal Kyrala]

I'm not taking what you say as mean, and I don't think it is going to take me a year, as I ordered within 12 hours.

And it isn't about Red. I don't have faith in anything. If Red had reliably hit estimates in the past, I'd expect them to in the future. If they didn't, I wouldn't. And I think they are pretty vocal about being aware that this is their biggest issue - delivery. They make amazing cameras - I wouldn't be waiting for it if someone made a better camera, but that really doesn't say anything about their ability to execute. Remember, they specialized in motion picture cameras. The Scarlet has a much wider audience, and they haven't had to deal with this sort of volume before - exasperating their delivery problems.

And I don't think they are going slower and slower. I think they are just going slow, accelerating, and with unknown potential delays ahead. If they knew they had a fluid operation, as I said, they would be providing ship dates. They must not have a supply line that they feel is reliable. They have tons of parts coming from around the world, and that's the unknown factor I think. If there's a supply shortage of one of the parts, who knows how many days/weeks it will take to find a new supplier or get the parts in stock.

Finally, I'm not really going by the list. I'm going by the serial # on the scarlet, and the date/time those who have received them ordered. When they start getting to people who ordered 10 hours after ordering began, I'll start to get excited.

Not trying to be mean or start an argument with you, but If you really think its gonna take a year to get your camera then why don't you just cancel it? You seem to be very (unjustifiably) negative in my opinion every time the issue comes up, and you seem to have no faith in RED's manufacturing capabilities. Again not trying to be mean or argue, we're all friends here. But If I had your mindset, I'd wait until next year when I figure they will be abundant or not consider a camera at all from a company I had no faith in. According to your logic you seem to think that they will get slower and slower, not faster and faster.

On another note, I still stand by the fact that I don't think the orders are even in the thousands yet. I know it's a highly anticipated camera, but the information presented leads me to believe that there aren't that many orders yet. There are many who want them but just can't go pick $14K or so off a tree. It's not meant to be a camera in every household. Although it is highly anticipated, the actual market for it that can afford it isn't as big as most seem to think. Most seem to think that it's selling to a market thats as big as a Canon Rebel and it's not. I'm not saying anything bad about RED here, but I'm sure they know this too. And even if I am right they are as many as they expected at this point.

Another thing that supports what I'm saying about the volume of orders is the list. Now I know it's not 100% accurate at all, but I feel it does give us some legitimate data. I feel that at least 80-90% of the people who order are going to come on here and engage in the community and the list. Obviously not everybody will, theres some who just order a camera or two because it may be a good business move and not even know about the community here. But if you're figuring that the majority are going to come on here and participate in the list, then thats something to backup my theory. Last I checked the list had only between 500-600 orders. So there you go.

 

[Robert L. Mickles]

Remember, they specialized in motion picture cameras. The Scarlet has a much wider audience, and they haven't had to deal with this sort of volume before - exasperating their delivery problems.

That's where I feel that you must be getting some inside info that I'm not getting. As far as I can see they've dealt with this type of volume all the time. I really stand behind the fact that there aren't thousands of cameras ordered. Sure, they may have sold more in 2-3 months than they sold of the RED ONE or Epic in 6-12 months, but there is no way that there are the ridiculous amounts of orders that you and many others on here think there are. Now I know this is a wider market than their higher end products but no where near as wide as everyone makes it out to be. Unless someone from RED officially confirms otherwise, there's no way that I am going to believe that there are even 5000 orders, let alone more than 2000 at this point. I may be dead wrong, but this what the info i've gathered and my logic lead me to believe.

One thing I do have to give to you as well is if you were trying to slowly move up the list by being negative and having people cancel their orders, then I may just admit that you are a evil genius. :wink5:

 

[Damian Mizzi]

How many Scarlet cameras can RED make a month? I am around SO # 8500 so I"m guess I'll see a camera close to next year?

When did you place your order Eugene?!

 

[Terry VerHaar]

People have a tendency to project the future from their direct experience of the past. This does not always prove to be accurate. If it were, we'd all get rich playing the stock market. Some things are simply unknowable without adequate information to make an "educated" estimate. The only people who have that information are employed by RED, and they're not talking. :smiley:

Why not just let things happen instead of making completely uneducated (and as a result, misleading) wild-ass-guesses.

 

[Eugene Lehnert]

I placed my order on December 28th.

 

[Paramon Ivanovich]

How many Scarlet cameras can RED make a month? I am around SO # 8500 so I"m guess I'll see a camera close to next year?

I don't know when you'll get yours, but looking at the "list " thread, people who ordered on Nov 3rd still getting theirs,
do the math

 

[Luc Bouvrette]

Why not just let things happen instead of making completely uneducated (and as a result, misleading) wild-ass-guesses.

My thoughts also. I ordered just before Christmas and I'm pretty confident I'll have received my Scarlet by March and that's according to Jarred's past posts that fairly consistently indicate Feb/March as the light at the end of the Scarlet BO tunnel.

I'm into astronomy and once waited one year for a telescope not only because the demand was high but mostly because QC for this line of product is pretty top notch. It was badass by the time I pulled it out of the box, superbly crafted and no hitch whatsoever. That's the type of experience I expect from RED. The camera will be well worth all the wait. And between now and then, I'll use my other gear to make a living. No biggy.

 

[Robert L. Mickles]

I don't know when you'll get yours, but looking at the "list " thread, people who ordered on Nov 3rd still getting theirs,
do the math

Part of my math is that orders started on Nov. 3rd, They started shipping in mid Nov in small quantities. It's mid january, so 2 months after shipping started, a little less than half of the list is either allocated or shipped. In the beginning January they started ramping up production, and apparently continue to do so. I ordered right after xmas, so i figure by the end of Feb or March at the latest I should have mine by that logic.

 

[Cody Cha]

How many Scarlet cameras can RED make a month? I am around SO # 8500 so I"m guess I'll see a camera close to next year?

The List is a pretty good sample of Scarlet orders. I would put yourself on the List and follow the progress. It's probably the most accurate way to estimate the ETA of your allocation.

 

[Kamal Kyrala]

That's where I feel that you must be getting some inside info that I'm not getting. As far as I can see they've dealt with this type of volume all the time. I really stand behind the fact that there aren't thousands of cameras ordered. Sure, they may have sold more in 2-3 months than they sold of the RED ONE or Epic in 6-12 months, but there is no way that there are the ridiculous amounts of orders that you and many others on here think there are. Now I know this is a wider market than their higher end products but no where near as wide as everyone makes it out to be. Unless someone from RED officially confirms otherwise, there's no way that I am going to believe that there are even 5000 orders, let alone more than 2000 at this point. I may be dead wrong, but this what the info i've gathered and my logic lead me to believe.

One thing I do have to give to you as well is if you were trying to slowly move up the list by being negative and having people cancel their orders, then I may just admit that you are a evil genius. :wink5:

I never said there is a ridiculous amount of orders. They have, however, sent out around 600 scarlets, maybe + or - 100, after over 60 days of shipping, and are barely getting to people who ordered 2-3 hours after announcement. If I get mine before the end of March, I'll buy you a drink when you come to so-cal. I'm not trying to get people to cancel their order, I just don't want people to have unrealistic expectations.

 

[Robert L. Mickles]

I never said there is a ridiculous amount of orders. They have, however, sent out around 600 scarlets, maybe + or - 100, after over 60 days of shipping, and are barely getting to people who ordered 2-3 hours after announcement. If I get mine before the end of March, I'll buy you a drink when you come to so-cal. I'm not trying to get people to cancel their order, I just don't want people to have unrealistic expectations.

Where did you get that they sent out over 600? If you're going by serials, the serials seem to be going at at Random, plus there are quite a few with low serials withheld for internal use. I would say from what I gather on here that maybe around 202-300 went out. And the whole get people to cancel the order thing was a joke lol. I'll be in LA right before NAB in April, hopefully with a Scarlet. Hopefully for the good of all the people on here, including you and I, I'll be able to take you up on that drink offer lol.

 

[Arnold F.]

People say they're "ramping up production.". That's great to hear because I'm excited to get my camera. Kindly provide support for that claim and the number they're shipping each month so we can have threads with concrete information, not guessing . Without that information no one here - again, no one - knows how long it will take for any of us waiting to get our cameras and one guess will be as good as another. This, in turn, would mean it wouldn't make sense to criticize another's claim.

Since folks DO criticize other's ETA's they must have information to back it up . Kindly share. Thank you!

 

[Kamal Kyrala]

I said around 600 +-100 . Based on the SO#'s *and* the serial numbers, I think it's a good optimistic estimate. And even if the serial #'s are shipping pseudo-randomly, i'd imagine they most certainly are not manufactured randomly. And unless you think they have a whole bunch of finished scarlets just laying around... I'd say they give a good idea of Red's production capacity.

See you at NAB

Where did you get that they sent out over 600? If you're going by serials, the serials seem to be going at at Random, plus there are quite a few with low serials withheld for internal use. I would say from what I gather on here that maybe around 202-300 went out. And the whole get people to cancel the order thing was a joke lol. I'll be in LA right before NAB in April, hopefully with a Scarlet. Hopefully for the good of all the people on here, including you and I, I'll be able to take you up on that drink offer lol.