What will *you* rent it for? REVISITED

[Manfred Lopez]

Just to put this thread (and my previous post) into perspective, if the norm in the industry is to recoup investment at around 60 rentals and there will be 5,000 reds... then it is going to take 300,000 Red rentals to pay everyone back... I somehow don't see that happening in the first two years, let alone in the first year like a lot of people are expecting. So I think that people who want to recoup their cost in like 10 rentals like before their visa bill arrives at the end of the month are a bit delusional. But that's just me.

If you look at the people who are renting on this board you will find that it is people who were already renting other gear and have build up a customer-base. Right now the camera is still a novelty so some newbies are running into luck... but in a few months as excitement wears down and shipments increase we all know what is going to happen... beany babies!

 

[donatello b]

i think it will fall into the 500-800 range once supply meets/exceed demand.
i'm not in the rental market ... when i placed the order it was a personal camera for myself & friends .. so my view is more along the camera is affordable to buy and should be affordable to rent ...
Red didn't charge me a price of where it fits in the market place compared to other camera's so why should i charge where it fits according to what it does in camera rental market? again i'm not in rentals - that could change down the line ...

 

[sparkhope]

I get the feeling that maybe more then a few buyers have mortgaged themselves too aggressively to get in on the action. Once those monthly loan payments stack up and exceed the rental income we may find some very aggressive rental rates. It won't be long until we see a RED firesale on craigslist to just cover the loan balance...

RED successfully created a market for itself by poaching the prosumer market. I wonder how many RED buyers previously just owned a DVX100 -- we can blame Jarred for that

 

[Ken K]

I get the feeling that maybe more then a few buyers have mortgaged themselves too aggressively to get in on the action. Once those monthly loan payments stack up and exceed the rental income we may find some very aggressive rental rates. It won't be long until we see a RED firesale on craigslist to just cover the loan balance...

RED successfully created a market for itself by poaching the prosumer market. I wonder how many RED buyers previously just owned a DVX100 -- we can blame Jarred for that

I'm one of those. Well, a DVX100 currently and a VX2000 prior to that.

I'm not buying a RED to make money in the rental market though. I plan on renting it out here in Oregon and Washington, but that's just to make some money back on it. If I didn't have one rental this year, I'd still be happy as a clam that I bought it, because it's mainly for my personal use. I want to make films, not be a rental house.

As far as my rate goes, I don't know the exact dollar amount yet, but it will always be $1 less than what Shawn's rate is. :tongue:

 

[JasonAvalos]

yeah but then there is also taking it through red cine for them which if they dont have money for intermediates, plus having a on-set tech person. which is how I am configuring some of these deals. - JASON
OPTIONS ARE ENDLESS $$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[sparkhope]

Ok here's another scenario. Big rental houses may end up renting the RED body free!

consider the lens prices and what they are these days? most high end cine glass costs as much if not more than the RED body. A smart rental house can clean up if they focus there business on renting their high end glass and giving the body free. Make the money on the package rather than the body. This would practically kill the independent renter.

Either there are going to be a lot of REDs sitting in closets, on Ebay or in Craigslist. The funny thing is I imagine a lot of these REDs will be bought by the big rental outfits at a very favorable price.

Another issue of course is what kind of SLA can independents offer? What happens if the camera locks up and needs major service during a shoot? Will the independent replace it? This is where the majors will always have the edge...If i'm gonna spend 1000's on a package for a 3-5 wk feature it's hard to justify going with an independent. I'd have way to many variables already regarding talent and location schedules the last thing I could ever deal with is a camera failure that requires me to rent another package from someone else. For peace of mind I'd probably rent from a large outfit with the inventory to provide immediate replacement. In effect the independent renter is going to be relegated to the student and other discount productions where it's always about "undercutting" the competition because that's the only thing you have to offer --- so this notion that you could come to some stable price is pure fantasy. Your success as a renter is inversely proportional to RED Digital Cinema's success as a profitable company. Their goal is to put as many camera's out there as possible effectively commoditizing the body.

Of course if independents create some sort of "coalition" that pools there resources to increase the value of their service level agreements then maybe they'd have a chance at preserving some of their market value.

 

[sparkhope]

Oh and don't forget about "Scarlet". You know those student/discount productions...well they'll probably forego the RED ONE altogether. Hell if they can shoot 4k with a cheaper camera requiring a smaller rig, why not? The more I think about it the more it becomes apparent: the market will not support the independent renter for any extended period of time.

 

[Finner]

Oh and don't forget about "Scarlet". You know those student/discount productions...well they'll probably forego the RED ONE altogether. Hell if they can shoot 4k with a cheaper camera requiring a smaller rig, why not? The more I think about it the more it becomes apparent: the market will not support the independent renter for any extended period of time.

Yep, I've been saying this for months now.

 

[Kevin Lang]

Finner, are you still holden out for the fire sale of REDS in the coming months? Or have you already purchased a camera?

 

[Finner]

I am #993. I have not taken order yet due to the post problem issue. I do have work so I am not worried about being able to keep the camera working. With the $2,500 credit I have and what I will make with the camera I feel I will make about 10k or a little more by fall so it is worth it for me to get the camera as soon as a post solution is there. I do however think there will be ebay red bodies selling for $10,000 in the fall.

 

[sparkhope]

I am #993. I have not taken order yet due to the post problem issue. I do have work so I am not worried about being able to keep the camera working. With the $2,500 credit I have and what I will make with the camera I feel I will make about 10k or a little more by fall so it is worth it for me to get the camera as soon as a post solution is there. I do however think there will be ebay red bodies selling for $10,000 in the fall.

especially as scarlet comes out.

 

[Kevin Lang]

I do however think there will be ebay red bodies selling for $10,000 in the fall.

Well I am going to be a little more optimistic, I am going to say Jan '09 and maybe more like 11 or 12k.

 

[David Birdy]

"Buy the ticket take the ride"

Quote by Hunter S. Thompson

 

[HDPioneers.com]

For what it's worth, I'm renting a full package with lenses (both red zoomes and 300mm prime) for $900 a day. For comparison I rent HPX-500 for $475/day and an HVX-200 for $150/day.

 

[planet e]

I am #993. I have not taken order yet due to the post problem issue. I do have work so I am not worried about being able to keep the camera working. With the $2,500 credit I have and what I will make with the camera I feel I will make about 10k or a little more by fall so it is worth it for me to get the camera as soon as a post solution is there. I do however think there will be ebay red bodies selling for $10,000 in the fall.

if you're that confident about this prognostication, then why not collect the 110% refund and buy one of these $10,000 ebay red bodies...they are certain to be only lightly used, and it will save 75% off the original investment. i'm guessing that it will probably take that long, until fall or thereabouts, until we have an affordable and bomb-proof workflow, anyway.

anyone can say, "the stock market is going in the tank," the proof of one's convictions is whether they are actually willing to put out a large short position. anyone can paper-trade a portfolio, but you don't know what your assumptions are really built on, until the money is on the line.

i'm not trying to be argumentative and am not really addressing you personally, finner, this is just the gut-check that i use, as a stock trader, to check my trading thesis against the tide of existing information.

i'm currently long two RED cameras, but the value is in owning them and shooting with them, not in renting them.

the standard day rate for experienced shooters in my town is around $500, sometimes they come with a camera and gear, sometimes they don't--certainly if they do bring a camera, it's some flavor of HDV, like a Z1 or a Canon XLH1. i find it hard to imagine that a RED with operator is going to fall below the day rate for a Z1. there are many RED cameras in the world but only a few in my area.

the market is certainly more flooded with flavors of HDV than it is with RED cameras, and that hasn't caused precipitous rate fluctuations--it has only opened up more opportunities for more freelance shooters and increased the base of competition. but i don't see the companies around me going out of business over it.

my working thesis is that there are more affordable cameras and more camera operators than ever, but there is also more demand for work in this field than ever before, as the shift from a text-based culture to a visual culture, continues a-pace.

i just don't see an investment in a RED camera as a poor investment looming on the horizon. if it's going to sit on a shelf, then yes, it's a bad investment. but if you're gonna shoot the damn thing, regardless of your reasons--business, pleasure, to amp up your skill set, whatever--then there's nothing to fear, and there's nothing gained by waiting on the arrival of those $10k bodies, which may or may not materialize.

anyway, just throwing in a few ruminations, probably wearing my trader hat here, more than my shooter's hat at the moment....but, as a lot of folks are now learning the hard way in the current real estate environment, you buy a house because you need a place to live....

 

[RedDog444]

What's A RED Really Worth?

What's A RED Really Worth?

Sometimes I just shake my head at what I'm reading here. Why are some people willing to let a RED go so cheaply? Do they realize what they have? Do they really know how to use it? Did they buy a Ferrari just to go get groceries?

Part of the value of RED is knowing how to use it and market that talent as a package. It's more than just getting a body out there and collecting rent. For that, why not just get an HDV camera? The real value here is getting an incredible image for yourself or your clients at a cost that was recently only available to the big studios. We're not dealing with iMovie here, this is digital CINEMA.

What I'm trying to say here is that we should also be marketing our talent. What is your RED really worth? What are you worth? The RED in the wrong hands doesn't help anyone. I've already seen that. I have seen footage from others shot on RED and only had the word "ouch" come into my head.

Let's not forget the importance of a media manager, too. Are you really going to trust a days worth of work and budget to a PA?

Well, that's my nickel's worth, for now, at least.

 

[Joel Kaye]

I do however think there will be ebay red bodies selling for $10,000 in the fall.

I think it's possible a lot of people will read threads like this and bail out of buying the camera at all. Look at Ketch, trying to sell 2 of 3 of his reservations. How many others have multiple reservations that will only take 1? How many real REDs are out there right now despite up to 1000 being able to take delivery? A few hundred I bet. The biggest thing that will cause a used RED devaluation is if something similar comes out that is better and cheaper. RED could probably raise their price once the initial buythrough happens. Heck they could raise it NOW to encourage current rez holders to purchase. (not a bad idea actually)

Considering the $2500 accessory rebate that is no longer available and the fact that RED bodies rarely will sell without accessories I'm guessing there's a 20-25% devaluation in the camera on the used market in a year.

Indie filmmakers may buy RED the way they used to buy 16mm gear - for 2 or 3 months and then sell it. There will be a ready buyer for every seller I think.

For instance, I've got a project coming up in a few months that seems to be an EX1 type of thing. I'll probably buy one, shoot it for a couple months and sell it.

this is why I disagree with some of the naysayers that say the indies/newbies shouldn't get a RED. No, they're not going to get rich, but if they even come close to breaking even and they either learn something about production and/or get some jobs that they other wise wouldn't it is a good deal. In some cases, even if they never made a dime - which I doubt would happen - it is cheaper than a year at a lot of colleges

I agree with Aqua, those are some good reasons to own RED.

The camera is a commodity and YOU charge whatever people will pay for YOUR services. That's be the difference between $200 and $20000 a day.

 

[Michael Hastings]

Who are these people?

Who are these people?

I guess it depends on the market... Around here an HPX500 w/ lens and power source goes for about $750-$850/ day.

:biggrin: Who are these people? Names and phone numbers please - I have some land just a little West of me (I live in Ft. lauderdale):biggrin:

I was figuring about the same for RED at about $2500 per week for a RED body with CF module, batts, charger, base production pack. Seems fair to me. $1000 or so per day for the same thing with a nice lens or two wouldn't be a bad deal.

I'm not saying its unfair, but I would be happy to rent to you or your associates for that rate and I will pay the shipping.

 

[Visceral_IvaN]

Just to put this thread (and my previous post) into perspective, if the norm in the industry is to recoup investment at around 60 rentals and there will be 5,000 reds... then it is going to take 300,000 Red rentals to pay everyone back... I somehow don't see that happening in the first two years, let alone in the first year like a lot of people are expecting. So I think that people who want to recoup their cost in like 10 rentals like before their visa bill arrives at the end of the month are a bit delusional. But that's just me.

You make the faulty assumption in that you assume everybody owning a RED
will be renting the camera.

 

[sparkhope]

You make the faulty assumption in that you assume everybody owning a RED
will be renting the camera.

doesn't really matter. The workflow is the killer. Even those who purchase the camera without the intention of renting it out will face the reality that a difficult workflow makes it less likely that longform projects will be produced in one's basement. Invariably those Reds will sit in their cases collecting dust and making the owner feel like an idiot for having purchased (a great camera) but not creating any great art...eventually the guilt will lead the owner to either rationalize selling or renting the thing. Now if we get a kick ass workflow that allows someone to painlessly produce longform work in the confines of their basement....well the story may change. But let's face it a lot of the RED customers are addicts not artists. Addicted to getting the latest gadget... sad but true. I'll be honest I myself have a relapse now and then. In this case I'm fortunate that we have a film in preproduction that will shoot this summer. Then again come delivery time I may change my mind and just rent the darned thing.

Peace out.