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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

What Will Red One's Lifespan be?

what renders "obsolescence obsolete" is that RED is putting their foot down regarding the Big Four's trickleware business model. of course the camera is revolutionary and will stay ahead of existing technologies for awhile. but what is equally revolutionary is the end to trickleware. they aren't holding back on the features and are doing everything to put out the best possible camera with maximum features and flexibility. THAT'S the revolution, in my opinion. no more crippled products. it may be out of date, eventually, but only because technology has moved forward, and not because RED held anything back.

i was on a shoot several weeks ago with a guy who has been shooting film and video for 40 years, and he volunteered to come teach us a few things, as a mentor. he shows up with his Sony PD 100 with a cracked lens housing (lens was fine) and a Beachtek unit and offers to be a third camera on our shoot and collect a bit of B roll while giving us some lighting tips, etc. of course, his footage was fantastic, coming out of this old, cracked camera. what a great lesson.

i fell in love with my original prosumer camera, a GL2, all over again.

when does the shooter become obsolete?
 
A: They don't know how long it will last.

A: They don't know how long it will last.

I would like to know how long it would last too. But how can we expect an answer. They don't know how long it will last either. They don't even want to make a guess, and I wouldn't either.
my original prosumer camera, a GL2
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I just upgraded my GL1 to a GL2. Yeah, it was obsolete 5 years ago, but I bought it anyway. Hell, I just bought a SD tube TV too. The price of my TV was less than the amount of a mail in rebate on a HDTV. If I wait a year the price of HDTVs will come down. When the RED ONE comes out, maybe I will be able to get a F900 for the price of a GL2. Good things come to those who wait. I love RED even if I can't afford ONE, because they will force the industry to change.
 
Rob Lohman said:
While the acquisition world changes quite rapidly the delivery seems to be a lot slower. Of course, if it's true that we will get most (all?) of our content over the internet in the future then this could change quite drastically. But that's at least another 5 - 10 years away in my humble opinion.
Click to expand...

Right, once distribution moves to an IT model, the way acquisition is starting to, we won't be rigidly locked into specific formats on that end either. If the Apple TV (or similar) of ten years from now can drive a 4K monitor (not all that crazy, as they'll probably be common for desktop computers by then) and play back any QuickTime file, people will be able to distribute whatever they like, basically.
 
Well all this talk of techology life span is all very interesting and I probably agree with various points raised as far as they go. But no one so far has really mentioned a few key points about life span for various different types of technology.

First I should come clean - I've been in electronics since 1962 - think germanium transistors OA71's etc. I've worked in Analog, Digital and RF areas extensively. I've just resigned from one of the leading US companies that makes the software, that designs and verifies many of the electronic toys we all like playing with so much.

And there is no question that over the last 45 years the hardware has become increasingly smaller and increasingly more powerful in line with Moore's Law; which states that you can get the same performance in half the area footprint roughly every 18 months. So that's all right then, no problems with the hardware it's just going to get faster and smaller ad-infinitum. Well no not really. There may still be a way to go, but each successive cycle see a whole raft of new problems; one of the recurring ones is power dissipation. Which leads us neatly on to 'Electromigration'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromigration

If you want to talk about life span in terms of reliability you have to take this into account. In an way this is like designed in obsolesence. If the guys who make the chips for the RED team have done their sums right, there's no reason why these chips shouldn't last for 20 years. So that's all right then? Well yes and no.

If no new standards for high speed communication were going to be developed we could just stick with the chips we've got. But new high speed comms standards will continue to get faster and faster and cheaper and cheaper, certainly over the next 10-20 years. So the current chips will be obsoleted by new standards sooner than they will fail in field because of electromigration. Phew! So that's all right then?

Well yes and no. Although it's excruciatingly obvious; the main limit imposed on new technology development has nothing to do with the hardware and everything to do with the software..

Ask Graeme, pretty much any project like the RED Camera has a significant amount of software in it. This takes far more time to develop and maintain than the hardware. I've seen estimates for mobile phones where the ratio is in the region 4-6 times greater effort for the software than the hardware. In all likely hood - the hardware for the RED camera was fixed some time ago - it may not have been delivered yet but the team know what they will get. We're most likely waiting on the software?

And even when we get V1 of the RED camera the software team will be hard at work ironing out - usage issues - and adding new code to meet the ever increasing demands of the new emerging interconnect and storage options that will come along in the next ten years.

Now, if the RED team have modularized all of the main components in an appropriate fashion; each element can be retro fitted as and when the need arises. You just need a standard interface specification between these elements that doesn't get out of date in a hurry. Hence the idea that RED renders obsolesence - obsolete. But what do I know?

All the best, Phil
 
We have 16mm and 35mm cameras here from the 80s that are still being used. People still use Konvas that are 30 years old.

The technology will get better, no doubt. But im sure Red will last generations... resolution will maintain itself.
 
Jarred Land said:
We have 16mm and 35mm cameras here from the 80s that are still being used. People still use Konvas that are 30 years old.
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30 years? Those are mere babies compared to some!

My serial number 54 35mm B&H 2709 dates from the 'teens of last century and works perfectly fine today. The same film stock that work with the latest, greatest Arri works with this camera. And it's dead solid registration... equal or better than ANY modern camera due to its fixed-pin optical printer style type 1 shuttle. I used it as a dedicated rotoscope/animation down-shooter camera until the mid '90s... Now it just looks cool sitting there.

I look at the RED this way... every camcorder I've owned has/had 18 months of shiny new-ness associated with it. Before the HVX I had the ZI, and before that the DVX, and before the Canon XL1. All the RED has to do is perform for five to seven years to be more of a financial bargain than those cameras ever were.

It's hard to predict the potential upgrades... it could be like that old joke; "I own George Washington's axe he used to chop down the cherry tree. It has had six new handles and three new blades since then, but it is the real deal..."
 
In my opinion 4k resolution will last at least 10 ten years for cinema, an other ten for TV or home cinema, but the sensor will not last that long. In a film camera the sensor is the film emulsion, therefore not part of the camera itself, that is why film camera last so long. Now you might be able to update the sensor and camera port, in the same design, so you are all good. Just have to pay for the updates, but it could be see as a part of the economy done on not using film.
If the sensor is truly updatable in the same design, I think the RED I camera could last decades.
 
pixelchef said:
"4k should be enough for anyone" - Gill Bates
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I get your point, but 4k has been more than good enough for the human eye for the past 90 years. And will be fine for another 90 in the 2D motion picture genre.

Where I do see advancement is in completely new genre's of image delivery, i.e 3d Laser image projection onto your retina and or directly into your mind. You may have seen that there are audio projection technologies today that allow a user to sit in a completely quiet room yet hear any music they want to hear through laser audio projection into the persons head. Meaning there are no physical sound waves present in the room.

</tangent>
 
There comes a point when there is enough resolution and you don't want more. I've come to this point in my still photography. I've been upgrading my Canon bodies for a while and now have the 1Ds for protrait/landscape and 1D Mark II for sports. I bring this up because Mark IIIs are coming out and I don't want any part of it. The files are bigger which means it will take up more space when I don't need to print super large prints. It takes longer to process the pictures in PS as the files are big (raw). All I want is a very reliable, dependable workhorse. Something that works, something I can be an expert on. Upgrade lenses, memory, harddrives, computer, but I don't see upgrading my camera body until this thing dies. That's how I feel about the Red One. I'm sure we will have software upgrades, accessories, etc. But if this does the job now, it will do the job 10 years from now. At some point, we just have to focus on the art and creativity, not the tool.
Ronnie
 
acehole said:
I get your point, but 4k has been more than good enough for the human eye for the past 90 years...
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Yeah, my "quote" was a bit of tongue-in-cheek levity on a Friday afternoon. I think it rather amazing that we're here at a milestone in technology where we're able to able to muse on what's beyond 4k. Imagine that 2 years ago. Who knows that the next 10-20 years will bring? I agree with you Ace, we're due for some serious evolution in delivery over the next several years. :sorcerer:
 
sure they might go beyond 4k but no real need for most applications, different manufacturers will focus on making variations of the stuff that people here have been wanting, higher frame rates, improved sensor sensitivity, various codecs and compression, optical image stabilization, auto focus and aperture, easier interfaces or more super complex ones with the depth mapping and all that, different form factors, like little ones that will fit in your purse with the one green auto on button in 4k perhaps even cheaper versions in pink and yellow, it'll be cool
 
Jarred Land said:
We have 16mm and 35mm cameras here from the 80s that are still being used. People still use Konvas that are 30 years old.
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Older than that sometimes. I have a Konvas 1M that I use for hand-cranking. Its lens and body test sheets indicate a production date in 1967:

http://home.comcast.net/~jackson.robert.r/konvas_tests.jpg

And it's holding up pretty well for its age:

http://home.comcast.net/~jackson.robert.r/konvas1m.jpg

It's smooth and reliable. Magazine changes are instant, too. No threading. You just slap the magazine into place until it clicks and you're ready to shoot.

There's something kind of soothing about hand-cranking footage, too. No batteries or electronics. I take the 1M and a light meter out with me. I get an idea where I'm going to need the aperture/speed set and crank at a frame rate roughly consistent with my readings. The most comfortable speed is around 16 fps. You can get it to 24, but you're really cranking by then. I'll vary the speed a little so there's some exposure variation, since I usually hand-crank for effect.

Nothing wrong with using older cameras.
 
Ronnie Silos said:
I bring this up because Mark IIIs are coming out and I don't want any part of it.
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Wow, the Mark III actually seems like a pretty nice upgrade to me. I'm really looking forward to seeing what they do with the 1Ds Mark III. If it has all the upgrades they've included on the 1D it will be a must-own camera, no matter what resolution the sensor ends up being.
 
Jarred Land said:
We have 16mm and 35mm cameras here from the 80s that are still being used. People still use Konvas that are 30 years old.

The technology will get better, no doubt. But im sure Red will last generations... resolution will maintain itself.
Click to expand...

Hi Jarred,

I often use a 1944 Mitchell on a motion control rig. I know of another Mitchell from 1923 being used at least every week in Germany!

Stephen
 
Always a risk when you are an early adopter. RE Oxide betacam was quickly superseded (in about 2 or 3 years) by BetacamSp. Is that 12 years now?? and you can still get work with a BetacamSp.

The red model is clever marketing. If your camera becomes obsolete you search the market for a new camera... Maybe you buy from a different mfg.?
With an up-gradable camera (which is how the RED describes itself) you must buy the upgrade from the same mfg. As long as the upgrades are cheaper than buying a new camera the original company will never loose your business. I suppose there is a reason why this guy is a billionaire! This combines the best parts of the Sony and Panavision business models.
 
I wonder if red will license their specs to third parties or will they be more like Apple? It would be interesting to see drives from several manufacturers.
 
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