Thoughts about the short and medium term future of crypto

[Karim D. Ghantous]

Some of you probably hold some amount of crypto, even if you just threw $50 at an altcoin just for fun. I have put a lot of my modest (but not scanty) savings into crypto over the past 2-3 years. It probably won't make me rich but it will make a big difference in my life, where I could probably buy a new car (see below) if I wanted. Add to that a few other useful things like cameras and lenses, and maybe the odd plane ticket. And, if I meet a nice girl by then, we won't be drinking the $5 wines from Aldi (as good as they are). ;-)

So here is the landscape as I understand it by listening to people who know better:

- The flash crash in March was a perfect opportunity to accumulate, and I wish I had the money to do so, and BTC dipped to $4,000

- Some say that DOGE is an indicator of a strong bull market, and it is now up 10%

- XRP is fast approaching $1 and could surpass its all-time high in several months

- BTC surpassed expectations a little by hitting $23,000

- LBC, the coin for the decentralised video platform LBRY, is up 500% for the year

- ADA is now about 16 cents, expect 50 cents in a couple of months

- LINK is approaching $20 again and could hit that level early in the new year

- DOT is now about $5.50 but interest is gaining on this project, and we could see $100 in 12 months

- THETA, now about 80 cents, is up over 600% for the year - Theta TV is a live streaming platform which some of you may have heard of

- Some 'cheaper' coins might surprise us, like VET, DGB, ZIL and RSR

I have put off buying some new lenses and cameras this year. If I had a vacation planned I would have cancelled it outright and put that money into crypto. I thankfully was wise enough to not sink too much money into cars, which I love. I almost bought a cheap Ferrari 400i many years ago, when I had $20,000 in cash saved. I am so glad I didn't. It would have emptied my account and I wouldn't have been able to restore it for ages.

So, how much confidence do I have in crypto? Well, I'm not giving anyone financial advice. But if I won the lottery tomorrow I would put 95% of it in to crypto. Maybe more. I'm "all in", so to speak. I am not interested in shares, metals, bonds or real estate. I just don't care about that stuff. IMHO, crypto is going to grow much more than these other asset classes, because we're still in the nascent stages of a brand new asset class that has not yet reached mass adoption. How many households had computers in 1985? 1995? 2005? 2015? Think of it like that.

If you have holdings in crypto, let me know your thoughts. What are you expectations for BTC in 12 months? And the market in general?

Oh, and if you want to know what car I might be buying in a year or two:

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1123777_jurassic-park-jeep-wrangler

I'm not buying one ready-made. The plan is to buy the car, recondition the drivetrain, then get it painted. I'll add my own personal touches as well, if I need to.

 

[Michael Hastings]

snip:
I am not interested in shares, metals, bonds or real estate. I just don't care about that stuff. IMHO, crypto is going to grow much more than these other asset classes, because we're still in the nascent stages of a brand new asset class that has not yet reached mass adoption.

Thing to remember is that there is nothing underlying crypto or any other currency that would make them inherently worth more in the future. Inflation, or more realistically debasement of the currency, is what underlies the increasing value of gold, real estate, and to some extent stocks. At least with stocks there can be growth and innovation that can add real value.

With crypto if you are hoping for large investment gains you are relying primarily on the "tulip mania" aspect, and to a lesser extent the scarcity aspect of a currency that is completely mined out yet becomes a major currency for trade. Blockchain tech will definitely have value in a lot of areas. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the currency arena.

 

[Jacek Zakowicz]

Yes just consider the possibility of the great reset coming any time. What is the value of the crypto based on? It can vanish into the thin air at any time.... many vapor produts and companies have and are every day....

 

[Karim D. Ghantous]

Blockchain tech will definitely have value in a lot of areas. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the currency arena.

Absolutely. Blockchains are not the solution to every single problem. But at the same time, we're not going backwards.

What is the value of the crypto based on? It can vanish into the thin air at any time.... many vapor produts and companies have and are every day....

There is lots to say and I don't really know where to start! Look at just Bitcoin. Its value comes from its utility, its scarcity, its portability, its divisibility, its fungibility, its security and its reliability.

It's the most secure network on Earth. It has existed for over ten years now. It can be attacked, theoretically. Some blockchains which fall out of favour with the public do get attacked. But you can't hack the Bitcoin network - you can't steal someone else's Bitcoin except by obtaining their private key.

The market caps of Bitcoin and gold will eventually flip. But not for maybe a decade.

It's worth me saying that I am in no position to guarantee anything to anyone. I dare not guarantee even death or taxes or sunrises. I just point out possibilities and probabilities. I've learned to have that humility long ago. I believe that God absolutely exists. But even if I guaranteed it, would you change your mind if you didn't already believe? No, you won't. You have to figure it out for yourself. ;-)

Here are some items of interest:

Salvos accept Bitcoin & Ether:
https://www.coindesk.com/salvation-army-now-accepts-bitcoin-ether-donations-in-us

Microstrategy now holds over 40,000 BTC:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ys-more-bitcoin-at-average-price-above-19-400

Grayscale owns over half a million BTC; :
https://twitter.com/KyrosVentures/status/1339963149475147777

 

[Adrian Jebef]

Well I threw in a few bucks to grab some BTC awhile ago. Small potatoes. I was hoping it would grow enough at some point that I could buy a new surfboard or two. Now I could buy alotta new surfboards. Of course I don't want new surfboards anymore I want more BTC.

 

[Jacek Zakowicz]

IMO the crypto currency was created to allow for a complete financial reset with a push of a button. The Bank of China launch of crypto currency recently seems to me to confirm that.

 

[Jacek Zakowicz]

Well I threw in a few bucks to grab some BTC awhile ago. Small potatoes. I was hoping it would grow enough at some point that I could buy a new surfboard or two. Now I could buy alotta new surfboards. Of course I don't want new surfboards anymore I want more BTC.

And this is exactly where BTC wants you...;-)

 

[Karim D. Ghantous]

Well I threw in a few bucks to grab some BTC awhile ago. Small potatoes. I was hoping it would grow enough at some point that I could buy a new surfboard or two. Now I could buy alotta new surfboards. Of course I don't want new surfboards anymore I want more BTC.

Thaaaaaat's the spirit! ;-)

IMO the crypto currency was created to allow for a complete financial reset with a push of a button. The Bank of China launch of crypto currency recently seems to me to confirm that.

Maybe. I have to plead ignorance here.

 

[Richard Luke]

Love that $5 ALDI wine

 

[Karim D. Ghantous]

Love that $5 ALDI wine

Same. ;-) It means I don't have to buy cask wine. But I'd like to be able to drink something a bit crisper.

 

[Justin McAleece]

I'm enough of a believer in Bitcoin that most of the time I want it to go down so that I can buy more. Unfortunately, it hasn't worked out that way very often recently. I'm with you though, Karim. The growth potential on these things is unbelievable. Nothing in finance is even similar in most ways.

 

[Kemalettin Sert]

I believe in crypto and use it daily since it came out however i dont think BTC should worth more than few dollars at all.

 

[Karim D. Ghantous]

I believe in crypto and use it daily since it came out however i dont think BTC should worth more than few dollars at all.

For better or worse, we don't have a say in it. I would prefer silver to be $1/oz, but it isn't. ;-) Crypto assets are worth exactly as much as the market dictates. I don't even have a problem with the market volatility. You could argue that volatility is inseparable from early growth. But, crypto solves a lot of problems, and brings advantages. It's a rare event in human history when a new asset class is invented. Even if you don't like it, you can profit from it.

 

[Justin McAleece]

I'm with you Karim. To the moon!

 

[Jacek Zakowicz]

To me it spells trouble if an "asset" is created from thin air by unknown entities. There always have been and will be speculators and snake oil salesmen that want to sell "Brooklyn bridge " to you. Your decision if you want to buy it. And if indeed this is a Brooklyn bridge or a sustainable asset. But not being based on tangible goods or precious metal, or economical prowess to me is a pretty hard sale. But not to all I guess...

 

[Karim D. Ghantous]

Cheers, Justin. I just wish I had more cash to buy the XRP dip. ETH mining is now lucrative again, but for several reasons I don't think I'm going to be able to get into it soon enough. In a year, maybe two, ETH will be POS only and you won't be able to mine it anymore.

To me it spells trouble if an "asset" is created from thin air by unknown entities. There always have been and will be speculators and snake oil salesmen that want to sell "Brooklyn bridge " to you. Your decision if you want to buy it. And if indeed this is a Brooklyn bridge or a sustainable asset. But not being based on tangible goods or precious metal, or economical prowess to me is a pretty hard sale. But not to all I guess...

All top tier crypto projects are developed by known entities. E.g. Polkadot, Ethereum, Digibyte, Cardano, Chainlink, XRP, etc., etc. Bitcoin might be the exception, but it's decentralised anyway, so you can't take it back now. It belongs to everyone and no-one.

Lots of people own shares in companies that don't pay dividends. Is that a good idea? I don't think so. Bonds have very low yields these days, AFAIK. There's nothing wrong with precious metals, but they aren't going to grow as quickly as cryptocurrencies. I wish I bought silver when it was about $5.

When I heard about crypto, I had some objections. Once those objections were resolved, and once I saw the utility and the security that crypto offered, I started buying with what little spare money I had at the time. I could have done it more intelligently, but you have to make mistakes to learn.

Here's a thought exercise: if Bitcoin is created from thin air, try and get one for free. You can try downloading, forging your own, or plucking one out from the blockchain. ;-)

 

[Jacek Zakowicz]

Cheers, Justin. I just wish I had more cash to buy the XRP dip. ETH mining is now lucrative again, but for several reasons I don't think I'm going to be able to get into it soon enough. In a year, maybe two, ETH will be POS only and you won't be able to mine it anymore.



All top tier crypto projects are developed by known entities. E.g. Polkadot, Ethereum, Digibyte, Cardano, Chainlink, XRP, etc., etc. Bitcoin might be the exception, but it's decentralised anyway, so you can't take it back now. It belongs to everyone and no-one.

Lots of people own shares in companies that don't pay dividends. Is that a good idea? I don't think so. Bonds have very low yields these days, AFAIK. There's nothing wrong with precious metals, but they aren't going to grow as quickly as cryptocurrencies. I wish I bought silver when it was about $5.

When I heard about crypto, I had some objections. Once those objections were resolved, and once I saw the utility and the security that crypto offered, I started buying with what little spare money I had at the time. I could have done it more intelligently, but you have to make mistakes to learn.

Here's a thought exercise: if Bitcoin is created from thin air, try and get one for free. You can try downloading, forging your own, or plucking one out from the blockchain. ;-)

Well there are billions of dollars invested in marketing/sales of crypto currency. They are used by highly skilled , extremely talented individuals. No wonder many people are convinced. That does not change the fact that they were created from thin air. Currency has begun as a number assigned to tangible goods produced. A number agreed upon by all involved parties. That has been a pillar of traditional currency value. Crypto has not been created that way. Hence the thin air descriptor. Maybe I'm over- simplifying but these are the basics that our society has functioned and evolved on for millenia. Obviously there have been attempts at disruption throughout the history. As for safety- IMO banks are by far the safest for keeping money. Simply because they have too much to lose...

 

[Kemalettin Sert]

Cheers, Justin. I just wish I had more cash to buy the XRP dip. ETH mining is now lucrative again, but for several reasons I don't think I'm going to be able to get into it soon enough. In a year, maybe two, ETH will be POS only and you won't be able to mine it anymore.



All top tier crypto projects are developed by known entities. E.g. Polkadot, Ethereum, Digibyte, Cardano, Chainlink, XRP, etc., etc. Bitcoin might be the exception, but it's decentralised anyway, so you can't take it back now. It belongs to everyone and no-one.

Lots of people own shares in companies that don't pay dividends. Is that a good idea? I don't think so. Bonds have very low yields these days, AFAIK. There's nothing wrong with precious metals, but they aren't going to grow as quickly as cryptocurrencies. I wish I bought silver when it was about $5.

When I heard about crypto, I had some objections. Once those objections were resolved, and once I saw the utility and the security that crypto offered, I started buying with what little spare money I had at the time. I could have done it more intelligently, but you have to make mistakes to learn.

Here's a thought exercise: if Bitcoin is created from thin air, try and get one for free. You can try downloading, forging your own, or plucking one out from the blockchain. ;-)

Karim Bitcoin is not created to people make money out of it and buy lambos..its created to replace currency in digital era.Yes i totally understand why you want bitcoin price to be million dollars we all aware of it but thats not the main reason bitcoin exist.
Same thing can be said for Tesla right now Tesla worth more than total 10 other biggest car companies but this is bubble.People buy stocks to become rich and market price doesnt dictate its real worth for Tesla even Elon Musk thinks this way.
You may not be using bitcoin in your daily life i can understand that but i also do not wanna pay $10-20 for a transaction fees for bitcoin and i find it absurdly funny.
More stupid people buys crypto and expect to be millionaire one day and thats the only reason why Bitcoin is around $30K today..Simple as it is..Not a rocket science..

 

[Karim D. Ghantous]

Same thing can be said for Tesla right now Tesla worth more than total 10 other biggest car companies but this is bubble.People buy stocks to become rich and market price doesnt dictate its real worth for Tesla even Elon Musk thinks this way.

It's not wise to compare two assets in different asset classes (although it can work if you are doing pure technical analysis). Stocks generate value, whereas precious metals store it. Different concepts.

Tesla's price is overvalued, based on what profits they are making now. They might grow to be larger than VW or Toyota, or maybe not. I don't know. Anyway, Bitcoin doesn't represent anything except itself - just like gold.

The price increase of Bitcoin will eventually slow down, and maybe we'll see $1M by 2030. What Bitcoin I have (less than one) is going to be worth much more than my superannuation fund (what Americans call a 401k). Bitcoin was the best performing asset of the last decade, and it's going to be the best performing asset of this decade as well. And that's just one crypto among many.

 

[Justin McAleece]

It's great to see differing opinions here and people not on board. That means that there is still plenty of time for them to get on board. Which they will all want to... eventually.