The Dead End Scarlet Dragon

[Carey Lee Coffey]

I'm trying to figure out which way Red is going to go with the mysterious Scarlet Dragon. Why are they keeping this such a secret. Jared is flat out ignoring all questions related to being able to purchase a Scarlet Dragon new. Is this a camera that will ever be sold from the Red store? Or will it only be available through an upgrade path?

They have said there is no upgrade path from Scarlet Dragon to Epic. This makes me think there will NOT be an option to buy a Scarlet Dragon new from the Red store because Red would not sell a new camera without an upgrade path. Or would they?

On the other hand, why is Red so tight-lipped about the Scarlet Dragon? Why not just come out and say "there will be no Scarlet Dragon, other than through an upgrade". This secrecy makes me think that they ARE going to announce a Scarlet Dragon which will be available for purchase. Otherwise, why the secrecy? Perhaps they are waiting to do all their upgrades and Epic M Dragon sales before announcing a non-machined Epic Dragon and a Scarlet Dragon.

If that's the case, the new Scarlet Dragon's would likely have an upgrade path whereas the upgraded Scarlet Dragon's would not. Which seems odd.

This whole thing has my head spinning.

I know, speculating on Red's next move is an exercise in futility, but I'm trying to figure out how Red wants me to best spend my money.

 

[Michael Dalton]

I don't think there would be a scarlet dragon mainly because the price point would be too high for mass sales. If people could afford 20k for an SD body, likely they'd go all in on Epic Dragon, or just get Epic. I think this was evident in offer to upgrade to an epic. A scarlet dragon is limiting in a way.

 

[Jon Carr]

Well when you sign up your epic to epic dragon, that epic is no longer eligible for future upgrades. I remember reading it on the red site a while ago. It seems suiting since each body cane handle one future generation sensor. I would assume that if red is not planning a product line scarlet for dragon. Then they are holding the scarlet back until the next body design. This way the premade scarlet dragon orders won't feel like they couldn't upgrade.

 

[Solomon Nero]

My question is, if I were to upgrade to scarlet dragon, when the next camera is released, will I have an upgrade path? If so, will it be reasonable comparable to what I paid to the camera and sensor upgrade from Scarlet X to Scarlet Dragon?

I am sure RED wouldn't leave us hanging on an upgrade path, but it would be nice to have some of those questions answered.

 

[Elsie N]

I agree that knowing RED's intentions are important... I've had to make purchasing decisions in the dark myself. But it's just possible RED doesn't KNOW how they will handle things like this in the future.

That is, because they do not know things like what the competition will do, how their own sales will perform, what the economy will be like, what parts supply and cost will be... there may just be too many variables to commit to a decision on future sales commitments that far down the road.

The real strength of this company is its ability to adapt quickly to changing circumstances. And that means making fewer promises to keep. This is just my best guess of how they operate and why they do/do not do what they do.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

As seems to be the case sometimes with RED, perhaps they don't yet have a definitive answer for that question. Maybe they are pondering what can be done but don't yet know what makes sense from a technological and/or business perspective. :huh: Seems to me like they like to keep options open as long as possible, hence no answer that would end up misleading folks if they were to change their minds.

 

[Scott Crawley]

I expect they will do what they can to maintain Scarlet's street value for as long as is reasonable. To me that would mean releasing NO Scarlet Dragon outside of the upgrade path until competition for the Scarlet MX market space forces the move.

I am hoping for 12-18 months or more before that happens. That is my personal bias and I think it is a reasonable expectation; for Scarlet to maintain it's value for 2.5 years from release. That is half of what Red One did, but the R1's value was unprecedented.

 

[Mike P.]

I have a feeling that the Scarlet-Dragon "new" price would be so close to the upgrade price (e.g. $12k new instead of $9.5 upgrade) that it would actually cannibalize the upgrade sales, which is why they're going to wait until after the upgrade window is closed before they announce the "new" price. Either that, or it'd be so expensive that it'd be in Epic-Dragon territory (~$20k compared to $24k) so then why bother releasing an "entry level" camera at all when it's no easier to afford than the flagship. Either that or they're unsure where to fit it in, so they're in a bide for time.

One thing that I think really messed up the plan (or idea of the Scarlet as an easy RED entry point) was the price drop. If they'd have just released Epic-X at $17.5 from the get-go (and had no Scarlet) it probably would have been better in the long run. Definitely would have been easier to manage and probably saved a bit of cash for everyone involved. The only reason I think the Scarlet made sense is that it was made with Epic run-offs which would have been tossed out anyway (making Scarlet's profit margins WAY higher) and that it is a gateway camera (once you have it kitted out, upgrading to epic is actually one of the cheaper steps.) Now that Dragon is basically a new camera (it probably wouldn't cost any more to make Scarlet-Dragon function exactly the same as Epic-Dragon, since sensor and ASICs are being replaced) there is no cost-benefit to releasing a Scarlet-Dragon (it'd cost as much for RED to make as an Epic-Dragon.)

Interesting. Without any info it's all guesses.