The cost of 4k laser projection. Speculation Red Laser Price.

[Patrick Tresch]

Great!

Please don't make it proprietary (R3D was a pain in the ass to post-produce during 2 years).

Bring it on RED! ;-)

Pat

 

[Jose Lomeña]

Fantastic price, i want one!

 

[Wayne Morellini]

Timing can, as I said, can correct x axis jitter.
Y axis can NOT be compensated for with timing, because the beam is simply in the wrong place in Y. You have only one chance and the stupid beam is too high or too low.
So the microvision is out. Using a piezo or galvo to correct is no longer using the microvision as a base.
There are plenty of engineers who think up ideas for amazing products on paper,but avoid 'going there' for the things that in the back of their minds are known complications. Those things burst the bubble, but then the fantasy idea dissolves into the ether and they have nothing.
Saying there is a gulf of difference is an easy way out. Have you built anything that works off paper that is this complex ? Just wondering/calibrating ....

My apologies Les, I am often sick and misread what you were talking about, I thought you were getting to another solution, but the timing is good enough start. Actually the mv is not out, you are not looking at it right You also are not getting where I'm coming from, I do months worth of working out 'complications' and new methods in a session. I can't speak for you, but you can speak for yourself, not me. You definitely are on the wrong track, inability to work out reality is what causes these things, I usually fleece out non workers really quickly on the fly, it is evident at a glance a whole series of problems, weights of efficiencies and performance, design avenues etc. I get insight instantly, and even every second branching structures of working out. However, the biggest problems for the average person, getting stuck in what they know rather than working out what they don't. One implements or slowly refines what is known, the other explores new design. Problem is, not many people even know a lot (I mean, a lot) to do even that. As I said, for yourself, not for me. I deliberately don't think about things, as I instantly see problems and solutions and can spend all day long refining a series of problems (which I think I have only tried to do maybe once, as there are other things to do in life) a whole series of products, all variations for the whole timeline of product development to the most efficient versions, one after the other, when well. The problem is that most things become rationally irrelevant to do, as there are a number of more important things and you can not do everything, plus being sick is not helping anything without assistance. I am also able to rationally debate leading people while very sick (slows down systematuc thinking hundreds to one, and difficult to the level I usually employ). I regularly get people entering the fray and thinking they are right because the solution is conventionally a no goer or limited, but not further ahead to the solutions. I am validated, because a number of my solutions get rediscovered and developed years afterwards, often to lesser degree. The whole process is based on knowledge of course, I may have aspergers systematic and self organising thinking, tourrettes low latent inhibition type thinking (flood of related ideas) and a uniquely well trained skill in using it and working them together, but it all depends on knowledge to rationally work things out, even though you can make some deductive leaps to fill in gaps. I can train most people how to do this, but most people are not interested in too much beyond themselves etc (ignoring=ignorant). So, I am not as one dimensional as you may assume.

The MV solution is by no means ideal (my old version uses additional technologies/techniques that should stabilise, increase precision and precision, but I would have to review their exact design to compare)) but there are much better ways I am interested in.

Sorry this reply has taken so long, been in hospital, had a accidental confrontation with a snake, he must had lightly got me, feel unusually sicker today for some reason.

 

[Wayne Morellini]

The goal has always been 4K 3d laser for $10K. Let's see how we do...

Jim

Jim, that is a totally fantastic price for a cinema version, how much for a home version ?

Thanks anyway, I hope you can go high volume, currently there are more conventional 1024*768 laser projectors.

Don't worry about the discussion here, I actually know what the solution is. It is one thing to question because you don't know, another to know.

 

[Wayne Morellini]

Les, I have reviewed my previous posts, and should have pointed out I have used an 'existing' low relative jitter device, not talking about my design work. The solution is out there, already. For this general sector, I have a much better solution, if anybody is interested in investing. I forgot, I can laterally jigsaw technologies together and have some knowledge from years of keeping up with what was out there on the technical side.

 

[Patrick Grossien]

The goal has always been 4K 3d laser for $10K. Let's see how we do...

Jim

hehehe, this sounds as if it were very telling! pretty excited to see "how low you can go"

 

[Wayne Morellini]

Yes, yes, 4k, for $4k as somebody said (or 8k). Actually, why not just skip the 4k revolution and do 8k, the cinemas will have a cheaper orojectir that does not need to be replaced (even I Max), and light show people will have something too? 8k smoother lines?

 

[Jeremy Torrie]

So in theory Red Projector combined with RedRay Pro...20,000 to have a 4K Playback device and the film projected in 4K? That would shatter the 2K barrier for sure, and likely upset a number of exhibitors with bought Sony SXRDs...but oh well -someone's gotta pay for their R&D!

 

[Wayne Morellini]

R&D costing and Economics.

R&D costing and Economics.

People keep talking about R&D mistakenly, it is all about volume. $100 million R&D (in tidays terns) to make it really big for instance, to invent the laser, video, 4k and other things from scratch, first in history, genuises behind it that fast track everything in right direction, and refine them to this standard, plus set up production lines included for 1930's 4k laser projector (note in real world most of this is already done to reuse in your product, so maybe a million down to $100,000 R&D to do revolutionary laser projector, home version).

Well, with this imaginary $100million R&D cost, how do you get rid of it. If you manufacture 10,000 units the cost per unit for just the few stated items, is $10,000, so you want to charge $100,000 (in today's terms) for your 1930's 4k laser projector (no cinema coding used, home version also used on cinema) and that is all you can sell in those times. But if you produce a hundred million, then guess what, you cost per prpjector is now $1 in those terms, and if actual manufacture and distribution chain costs are low enough (the increase volume can drastically bring manufacturing side down) you can sell it for $2000 at a profit. Guess what, at $2000, with a suitable screen also reduced because of volume, you can sell $100 million.

Now let's translate the above back to a more real world figure of a million dollers R&D, leaving out production lines, for home version only. Over 10,000 units that is $100 a unit, over a million that is $1 a unit, 100,000 $10 a unit. So R&D can be high with a cheap retail price if volume is high enough. So, if you aim for 10,000 sales that is $100 a unit, production IP and parts may bring this up to $1000-$2000 for everything (assuming they can get their parts at goid price and manufacture third world). A laser prohector should cost littlevmire than an overly inflated lowcost normal 1080p projector, that should cost less than your $500 1080p TV set. So, the only justification for the extra $9-8k is if it is going through a distribution channel that need their cut. Economics 101. However, going to 100k units is scary, as if it flops in sales you have a lot of extra upfront costs to wear. However, it should have a drastic affect on costs, lets say parts and manufacture come down to $500-1000 dollers now (again presumming that they can get good volume pricing for parts and third world manufacture). Now you an sell it for $5k, but you must have a distribution network to sell in these volumes past the theater and production industry. This maybe as much ir more than any modern video projector sells, but Red offers so much more than even a new 4k TV, not so much less like a normal overpriced mechanism.

If course, the big factor here is the projector mechanism they use, I can do it cheaply, but it also can be done very expensively resulting in custom sensor/dmd like production costs. Such a complex beast of a mechanism puts a dent in the costs of production setup, manufacture, R&D etc. I am of course, presuming cheaper 'safe' lasers in the home version. Now you come back to 10,000 $10,000 projectors without a consumer distribution network, $6k would be pushing it, $4k probably not on. So 20k-50k units is probably the sweet spot to get it to $5k direct with limited consumer distribution in capitals etc.

However, if Jim would like to sell it down to $5k special for Red user members, I would be interested.

Hope the projector is 8k, with custom port card slot to take new 8k connection standard when available.

 

[Jon Jones]

10k for the RED 4k projector?? That would be awesome, I fully expected and was ready to pay 30k for it. I just figured it was going to be the same price as the EPIC.

 

[Paul S.]

I don't think we'll see a mass market consumer-friendly RED projector for a while, ever since the soul searching that lead to the decision to stick to being a pro company. But it would be great, and it would really turn people on to 4K.

Perhaps we'll see RED license the library to another firm, or subsidiary, to make consumer-level goods. I'd like that. Kind of like Fender>Squier and Gibson>Epiphone. It would allow RED to be driven by pro needs, but let the mass market enjoy the trickle down.

 

[Aaron Fritz]

At my Office we just tested a dual Projector setup, using special filters that do no require a silver screen. you can actually project it on any surface. I have done extensive crosstalk tests and the system has passed them all. Right now this is best solution I have seen for 3d.

 

[Wayne Morellini]

I don't think we'll see a mass market consumer-friendly RED projector for a while, ever since the soul searching that lead to the decision to stick to being a pro company. But it would be great, and it would really turn people on to 4K.

Perhaps we'll see RED license the library to another firm, or subsidiary, to make consumer-level goods. I'd like that. Kind of like Fender>Squier and Gibson>Epiphone. It would allow RED to be driven by pro needs, but let the mass market enjoy the trickle down.

It is even better if they are consumer, then you get a flood up of money to pay for better research and technology. You just have to restrict yourself to quality value but expensive consumer to get the profit margin. Forget dollar and dime profit margin products, you are selling quality at a descent price. Projectors are an exception, as they should be cheaper than a TV but are much more expensive, the realistic price is the price of a good shd TV, probably around $7000 I hope this year, but I do not know if there is a $5000 planned.

At my Office we just tested a dual Projector setup, using special filters that do no require a silver screen. you can actually project it on any surface. I have done extensive crosstalk tests and the system has passed them all. Right now this is best solution I have seen for 3d.

What system would that be Aaron.


What happened to Les?

 

[Steve Sherrick]

Wayne, you seem like a guy that does a lot of thinking, and I commend you for putting your thoughts down on paper (or pixels) but I have to ask the obvious question, when do your inventions and cost effective solutions hit the market? I understand it takes money, but at the same time one could argue that a good idea is just that, until it's infused with blood, sweat, and tears to get it to market. I recall you mentioned health issues in another thread and perhaps that is a factor and if it is, then who am I to question your resolve to make things happen. There could be complications that might present legitimate obstacles in your path and I can sympathize with that. It's just that in any business venture I have ever attempted, the actual cost vs. the projected cost on paper can be much different. So in the case of a 4K laser projector, if you were to come here and say you have found a way to design and manufacture a 4k projector and it begins shipping in Q3 of 2012, I'd bookmark your company's website and follow it religiously. But I suspect that's not what we're talking about here or am I really missing the point? That's always a possibility. Maybe you are one of those behind the scenes people who contributes to a lot of cool technology but isn't necessarily in the spotlight.

 

[Aaron Fritz]

Hi Wayne,

It is the Omega Optical System. They have a beta Kit that just went out to us. But I am really impressed with the 3d. All the test I have done have passed and no crosstalk. There is Light loss but as long as you have a light controlled room you are fine.

 

[Wayne Morellini]

Thanks Aaron. Seems to be what we were duscussing on the older Laser thread. It is also a very logical way to achieve the a maximal brightness.

Steve, things take a while and a/busy period, luck I felt I should check in, will try to answer shortly.

 

[Wayne Morellini]

Wayne, you seem like a guy that does a lot of thinking, and I commend you for putting your thoughts down on paper (or pixels) but I have to ask the obvious question, when do your inventions and cost effective solutions hit the market?

When I get proper funding, then the usual couple years to market, except for simpler things. It requires a team these days, not just one person. Anybody that knows the industry should know that it is a hundred times harder than the 70's early 80's hey day. Replace each of the hundred with a descent wage, there is $5 million easily, a million is scraping. That why selling on is important, so then you are looking at $50k-$500k, maybe a million to develop. The cost to take out patents in many many markets, and regular fees, is immense, let alone many patents, then you have to afford to defend them starting out over $25 million or so. Me, I look forward to do things in the thousands of dollers, tens of thousands without new patentable technology, but I keep finding them. Health is the pits though, and stops me doing anything on my own. I am regularly running between 1 and 10% of my real capacity, I have been worse, which is still good, but not enough.

Thinking does not get you far, figuring does.

So to all those who question but have not the talent, put you money where your mouth is. Proper figuring out will maybe save you 90% of the work.

I understand it takes money, but at the same time one could argue that a good idea is just that, until it's infused with blood, sweat, and tears to get it to market. I recall you mentioned health issues in another thread and perhaps that is a factor and if it is, then who am I to question your resolve to make things happen. There could be complications that might present legitimate obstacles in your path and I can sympathize with that.

This is a common fallicy often put forward by people that can't get a truely good idea let alone propperly figure it out themselves. See the paragraph above. It is not about wishful thinking, I would love to teraform Mars, but how are you going to do it, and not how are you going to do it, but how are you going to make it work, that is the idea. People commonly mistake wishful thinking as an idea and neglect the other two steps. It is hard to explain it, as people are not down deep into the practical philosophy of design and development (not to be confused with common insubstantial philosophies, but philosophy of results and how to make things work practically etc). Immense amounts of money are spent on refining an idea to set it up for release, if the idea is not so good at the start it will have to worked out with a lot of blood, sweat and tears. If the idea does not take into account it's failings and most efficient solutions (not only for manufacture), they will cost more and a lot of extra work will be needed to resolve these, this can take years of blood sweat and tears. If you have not worked out the best paths and product solutions, the conpetition can take that away, their is potentially 90-99%(+) of your net profit, gone, (and the company broke if it is too dependent on your product), this can take years, even decades of blood sweat and tears. But if somebody puts the blood sweat and tears in up front and properly takes account for this in the working out then you can get a 90% saving, worth millions to billions of cost, and more of increased sales. I sit and work out and through the idea, getting rid of up to hundreds of false avenues, exploring most credible versions (avenues) of the idea (new product editions), new technologies and other inventions, years, and even decades of development at once. That is what I offer, hardly what has been described.

My abandoned (due to new patent loading) virtual embedded real time operating system design, for instance, has still not been matched over decades, which has a number of hardware advances attached to it.

It's just that in any business venture I have ever attempted, the actual cost vs. the projected cost on paper can be much different. So in the case of a 4K laser projector, if you were to come here and say you have found a way to design and manufacture a 4k projector and it begins shipping in Q3 of 2012, I'd bookmark your company's website and follow it religiously. But I suspect that's not what we're talking about here or am I really missing the point? That's always a possibility. Maybe you are one of those behind the scenes people who contributes to a lot of cool technology but isn't necessarily in the spotlight.

Through an established company with the expertise in Laser projectors, mass consumer electronics, and the resources (look at the costings above, you quickly realise this is a hundred million doller plus company endeavour, preferably in petty cash. It is like a guy I know, a top microprocessor designer, holds key patents used accross the industry, one of the true legends of the industry, though people around here think the legends work for Red, but I would not bank roll his company unless I had $100 million, in petty cash. Not saying I would not buy in and order my own custom version. With this pre-existing expertise and capability to speed things up, then you maybe able to get something by end of the year, at least show cased, by basing it off of their expertise and their existing products and producton lines, but seriously, for mass volume of this level we are talking years, maybe one at the least, things have to move to fit new products in as well. Backing things down a lot, lower volume $5k projectors would be quicker, at $10k the volume might be low enough to use Red's existing distribution method/plan. My hope was that Red could get their projector down to $6k at least, but if it is $10k, then it is $10k.

Have been behind the scences, but rather earn money to use for good than let a bunch of schmucks get rich off it for free to do very little good with it apart from themselves. I would rather set up a corporation that eventually spends 90% of it's clear net profit (after tax, expansion and R&D) on worthy causes.

I retain copyright to this and in general.

I have met a few people in my time, often they are confused by what they know, that stops them from seeing further, even mistaking specific terminology (syntax) for real knowledge instead of concept or context. When you speak to such people (politely), if you make a mistake in wording they will immediately get confused and dismissive rather than trying to understand what is meant, it is a moral choice. Steve, if people can apply these principles to their business, things should run a lot smoother (at least from their end). And there is a non Red business out there that knows how I am refering too.

 

[Les Dittert]

Omega 3d looks like Dolby 3d tech.. Is this true ?

Hi Wayne,

It is the Omega Optical System. They have a beta Kit that just went out to us. But I am really impressed with the 3d. All the test I have done have passed and no crosstalk. There is Light loss but as long as you have a light controlled room you are fine.

 

[Wayne Morellini]

Steve, getting on to some wishful thinking.

In the last week or so, I was thinking of one of my camera designs, dissapionted a bit that the processor platform I wanted to use maybe able to handle fullhd but not 4k 3D (as I am more interested in developing a ce third world computer platform using the processor than the camera), but then realised the lens design might take 8k. So a sub $500 professional lossless 8k centermeters less than three centermeters thick (plus storage) like a dsc but big lens. But, the less than 2 centermeter thick zoom lens I am uncertain if the design will work, a cheap recording/processing solution is needed (a custom version of the current processor should do it), a cheap sensor, and a volume market to lower the price requires normal codec (a lot more work and development expense to get it into the current processor solution) but a good off the shelf camera solution could be used, that are used in cameras in this market. This allows the camera volume to be supplemented by consumer sales as a fullhd 3d h264 consumer camera, for prifessiibal use, you attach the off the shelf storage device, off shelf battery, put it in a rig for atrachments, like bigger monitoring etc. Tipping this on it's head, you could use the existing camera solution to provide functionality, and the recorder solution to record raw footage, but these off the shelf solutions can allready take post 4k resolutions off sensor, but can it divert them to raw recording. But now is uninteresting , as it is getting away from work on my ce platform, and would take as much time to integrate the off the shelf solution as create the ce platform.

I have also recently concluded that I might, just might, possibly, be able to automatically produce true 3d color fullhd footage from early b&w footage, given a good enough sample. In the 80's there was a color convertor for b&w crt displays. I quickly concluded mechanisms, and came up with something (the device actually turned out to be fairly simplistic passive technology instead). I concluded my method would unlikely work, but recently I have concluded a new way of looking at it and doing it. So fullhd color Charlie Chaplin 3d anybody? So better get origionals and digitising at the maxinum practical ( 20bit + (maybe much more), 8k plus etc)

But both these things are wishful thinking, I require proof, so I don't usually talk about such things. I can feel a solution and a direction, which ussually means my subconscious is tossing things around and about ready to spit out a solution, but I require more research and knowledge to verify, and tracing out things physically.


Les,

You know, if I told you the solution to the microvision laser system you would kick yourself multiple times, it is that....

 

[Peter Majtan]

But if you produce a hundred million, then guess what, you cost per prpjector is now $1 in those terms, and if actual manufacture and distribution chain costs are low enough (the increase volume can drastically bring manufacturing side down) you can sell it for $2000 at a profit.

I would really like some of that stuff you are smoking... No offense...
Do You have even a remote idea about how many $2000,- projectors have been sold world-wide by ALL the manufacturers combined?

~rant off~

EDIT: IMHO RED would be extremely successful if they sell even 10.000 units...