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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Space between Scarlet and RED ONE

3K price of scarlet equals 8mm CCD-V9 in 1988

3K price of scarlet equals 8mm CCD-V9 in 1988

Tzedekh said:
Aside from the price (too high for all but the most well-heeled soccer moms and dads),
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3K price of scarlet equals 8mm CCD-V9 in 1988.

Just googled and got a 1988 article from the New York times and the Sony CCD-V9 - a very popular regular 8 (not Hi8) camcorder for consumer use - was $1650 which is more than $3000 in 2008 inflation adjusted dollars. Even the cheapest models VHS models were over $1000 or $2K in 2008 dollars.

Here's a quote from that article:

"Nearly all the tourists stepping off the bus at a prominent New England vacation spot on the Fourth of July carried cameras. The surprise was that, by a rough count, about one in five was a video camcorder - clear evidence that do-it-yourself video has become a common aspect of American life. The travel season naturally heightens interest in these hi-tech mini-marvels, and it is estimated that nearly two million camcorders will be sold in the United States this year."

2 million camcorders (not one of which could record better than an equivalent of decent 320x240 web video) sold at a price point slightly above or below the Scarlet in real dollars.
 
Impagliazzo said:
Killing Scarlet would make sense?

Everybody wants it!
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Who is talking about killing Scarlet?

Would You guys give us (the tread starters) enough respect and read through the whole thread before posting? Impagliazzo - You surprise me, cause normally You have pretty good posts...

In reality I was not talking about killing anyone. I suggested a camera that would complement Scarlet and Red One without competing with them. However many have made (valid) points that it would indeed impact greatly on Red One - possibly killing it. Not that I am for killing Red One ("she" will forever be the "ONE" - no matter what happens now...), but I simply responded that if that is what will make business sense to Red - why not...

Red One was proof of concept and RED got what they wanted. All industry turning towards them and paying attention. Now there is even more pressure to keep up the REDvolution. What's next - only RED knows...
 
Tzedekh said:
Probably low hundreds of thousands. Don't overestimate the volume of the market. Between One and Epic, five or six thousand units -- maybe a little more. For Scarlet, possibly twenty thousand; if the price drops eventually to $2,000, maybe double that. But most nonprofessionals (and maybe even some professionals) probably won't tolerate the workflow, even if they can afford the camera.
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The workflow will probably be a lot smoother by next year. And, somewhat bizarrely, the workflow situation in the consumer market is deteriorating generally. Everything was very simple there when it was all DV25 on MiniDV tape, but now you have at least two data formats in the consumer market (HDV and AVC) in many variations (which aren't all supported by all software) and they're getting recorded on many different types of media. I don't think Scarlet workflow will be so bad, compared with what's going everywhere else at the moment.

That said, I don't think Scarlet is going to end up being a mass-market consumer item. Think of its market as being similar to the market for sub-$1000 digital SLRs. (I suspect there will actually be substantial overlap, come to think of it.) Plus, of course, all the pros who own (or frequently work with) higher end Red gear, but will want something small they can take anywhere. I suspect, for instance, that you'll see a lot of folks who work with a Red that their company owns buying Scarlets as personal cameras.
 
Peter Majtan said:
Who is talking about killing Scarlet?

Would You guys give us (the tread starters) enough respect and read through the whole thread before posting? Impagliazzo - You surprise me, cause normally You have pretty good posts...

In reality I was not talking about killing anyone. I suggested a camera that would complement Scarlet and Red One without competing with them. However many have made (valid) points that it would indeed impact greatly on Red One - possibly killing it. Not that I am for killing Red One ("she" will forever be the "ONE" - no matter what happens now...), but I simply responded that if that is what will make business sense to Red - why not...

Red One was proof of concept and RED got what they wanted. All industry turning towards them and paying attention. Now there is even more pressure to keep up the REDvolution. What's next - only RED knows...
Click to expand...

Apologies, I didn't read everything and misunderstood what you said.

But I'm with David's line of thought: Completely doable... But not now.

And wouldn't it make more sense if this new RED had a S16 sized sensor? (Question, I really don't know).

How's Super 16 format positioned on the filmmaking business today? Is it used a lot? Does the big glass companies produce decent lenses for this format?
 
Impagliazzo said:
Apologies, I didn't read everything and misunderstood what you said.

But I'm with David's line of thought: Completely doable... But not now.

And wouldn't it make more sense if this new RED had a S16 sized sensor? (Question, I really don't know).

How's Super 16 format positioned on the filmmaking business today? Is it used a lot? Does the big glass companies produce decent lenses for this format?
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The main reason I am proposing 35 is to allow us who have invested into good quality still glass to use our lenses - saving us potentially thousands of dollars... I believe (but could be wrong) that all aspiring cinematographers are at heart still photographers as well. It is almost a prerequisite to be a good DOP. This is no.1 reason that kept me loyal to Canon all these years and I have accumulated a collection of Canon's L glass...

I don't think I am alone, otherwise there won't be any market for 35 DOF adapters. Even thou S16 lenses are more affordable then 35mm primes and zooms - You are still faced with the same issue - having to buy number of lenses for Your new camera body.

Being able to share the same lenses between photo and cine also saves space & weight while traveling. Good quality film lenses and good quality still lenses are quite heavy and bulky...
 
Chris Kenny said:
The workflow will probably be a lot smoother by next year. And, somewhat bizarrely, the workflow situation in the consumer market is deteriorating generally. Everything was very simple there when it was all DV25 on MiniDV tape, but now you have at least two data formats in the consumer market (HDV and AVC) in many variations (which aren't all supported by all software) and they're getting recorded on many different types of media. I don't think Scarlet workflow will be so bad, compared with what's going everywhere else at the moment.

That said, I don't think Scarlet is going to end up being a mass-market consumer item. Think of its market as being similar to the market for sub-$1000 digital SLRs. (I suspect there will actually be substantial overlap, come to think of it.) Plus, of course, all the pros who own (or frequently work with) higher end Red gear, but will want something small they can take anywhere. I suspect, for instance, that you'll see a lot of folks who work with a Red that their company owns buying Scarlets as personal cameras.
Click to expand...

I agree completely with the workflow point of view. But what exactly defines "mass-market"? Scarlet could potentially sell hundreds of thousands units over 3 to 5 years. May not seam "mass" to some, but 100000 x $ 3000 = $ 300 million USD. Now we don't know what the markup on Scarlet is (could not be too much), but still even if it is 10% we are talking here minimum of $ 30 million profit. That "should" cover RED initial R&D costs... :innocent:

I do agree thou with You that it won't become a "consumer" market - that is unless RED comes out with complete range of products, such as projectors (RED LIGHT), displays/monitors (RED VIEW), players (RED RAY), etc...

With the ever increasing popularity of good quality home theaters (cinemas), I could see the RHC (RED Home Cinema) becoming a hit...
 
Impagliazzo said:
...
How's Super 16 format positioned on the filmmaking business today? Is it used a lot? Does the big glass companies produce decent lenses for this format?
Click to expand...

What is "fimmaking business"?

Super 16 is used quite a bit, and both Zeiss and Cooke make excellent lenses for the format.
 
oldphart said:
What is "fimmaking business"?

Super 16 is used quite a bit, and both Zeiss and Cooke make excellent lenses for the format.
Click to expand...

What are the price-tags on those and how does it compare to primes and zooms for 35mm from the same companies?

Just wondering...
 
Peter Majtan said:
I agree completely with the workflow point of view. But what exactly defines "mass-market"?
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It's all relative. If one looks to the photo world, the Canon Rebel series has sold over 2M units. Mass market? Maybe, but not huge compared with the astronomical volumes that pocket-sized non-SLR digital cameras sell in. The relationship between Scarlet and the HV20-class cameras will probably be similar. (Mind you, the video market is smaller overall than the photo camera market, and has more first-tier players, so this is not a prediction the Scarlet will sell 2M units.)
 
I think Chris is right. Scarlet will compete in the range from HV-20 to HVX-200 and everything between. I guess (unless something else come out) it could take substantial slice of this market. In the first month after its release You could see 10,000 units being sold (if RED can supply them), keep the level for few months (with maybe even slight increase) and then start dropping off gently exceeding 100,000 units in the first year...
 
For all those bragging about that it is "too soon" for RED to think about new camera as EPIC and Scarlet are still being developed...

(copied from the sister poll)

Before NAB no one had clue about EPIC and similar comments (by me amongst others) were made that Scarlet would distract RED from RED ONE...

The point being is that RED can't fall asleep on roses (or Scarlets :blush: ). The industry WILL respond and (as You know) it takes time from idea to real product in hand. I'll bet anything that RED is already playing around ideas for next cameras.

Average R&D process:

IDEA --> Research & Proof of Concept --> Development of Prototype --> Tuning and Advanced Engineering --> Release Product --> Updates & Tweaks

Red One is now in the last stage of "Updates & Tweaks"
Scarlet & EPIC are somewhere between "Development of Prototype" and "Tuning and Advanced Engineering" stage...
So for sure someone at RED has to be playing around with the "IDEA" and "Research & Proof of Concept"
 
AquaVideoRed206 said:
3K price of scarlet equals 8mm CCD-V9 in 1988.

Just googled and got a 1988 article from the New York times and the Sony CCD-V9 - a very popular regular 8 (not Hi8) camcorder for consumer use - was $1650 which is more than $3000 in 2008 inflation adjusted dollars. Even the cheapest models VHS models were over $1000 or $2K in 2008 dollars.

Here's a quote from that article:

"Nearly all the tourists stepping off the bus at a prominent New England vacation spot on the Fourth of July carried cameras. The surprise was that, by a rough count, about one in five was a video camcorder - clear evidence that do-it-yourself video has become a common aspect of American life. The travel season naturally heightens interest in these hi-tech mini-marvels, and it is estimated that nearly two million camcorders will be sold in the United States this year."

2 million camcorders (not one of which could record better than an equivalent of decent 320x240 web video) sold at a price point slightly above or below the Scarlet in real dollars.
Click to expand...
A retrospective comparison of tech-goods prices can be dangerously misleading. I could make the same argument about a lot of things like that: the $148 12-inch TV from 1948 would cost $2,500 today; the $4,000 4.77-/9.54-MHz Intel 80C86 laptop from 1988 would cost about $7,000 today. Technology was just relatively more expensive back then. But with declining prices have come increasing expectations.
 
Tzedekh said:
A retrospective comparison of tech-goods prices can be dangerously misleading. I could make the same argument about a lot of things like that: the $148 12-inch TV from 1948 would cost $2,500 today; the $4,000 4.77-/9.54-MHz Intel 80C86 laptop from 1988 would cost about $7,000 today. Technology was just relatively more expensive back then. But with declining prices have come increasing expectations.
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Yes, and on top of that back then there was not so much to choose from. You wanted a video camcorder - that is what You bought. Today there is zillion products for each category and the choices are endless and constantly evolving. Choice aside there is also the Morse law. When You bought video camcorder back then You were safe for several years. Today You buy something and the next day they release something even more amazing, cheaper and "what You really wanted in the first place"...

This is what puts many customers off...
 
Peter Majtan said:
Not the cheapest (I do know thing or two about sensor prices), but certainly the "only" missing link to allow the interchangeable lenses and therefore offer product that fits well into the gap between Scarlet and Red One.

Also is not like RED would have to reinvent the wheel. Cramping 5K into S35 is definitely a monstrous task. But "reducing" 4K to 3K is much simpler. You don't have to miniaturize any components and it is actually much cheaper to produce due the larger components (such a photosensors and electrical paths, etc...). As I've said before - doable...



This is not about whether one can or can't "afford" Red One. Frankly speaking we could afford it, but I can't justify it. Here in Mexico most clients still demand SD and few are "bravely" upgrading to HD (via HDV). It is not all about resolution. I would gladly forgo 4K for even 2K, if I can get 35mm sensor and interchangeable lenses. 2K for many is sufficient. Right now I can get two full sets of Canon XL-H1's (with the amazing 20x L lens and plenty of accessories) for the price of just the body of Red One.

I am not trying to compare the canons to reds. Just making point that not all markets are crazy about 4K. And I (as the Creative & Technical Director and principal DOP) have to make decision for our gear purchases. As much as I would love to have even EPIC (we all want the best) - the reality check tells me right now Canon. Especially since we are about to start shooting new TV series and we can't wait till EARLY 2009 (subject to change). By then the show will make enough money to buy few Scarlets and one or two Red Ones (if we can justify it then...). Affordability is a relative issue - do not pick on people...
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Scarletusers. I am not exactly sure what you think you know about sensors and sensor development, electronics boards (including compression engines), monitor paths, heat management, the space to house each of these, the cost of a high-speed sensor vs. a slow DSLR sensor of the same size, ASIC development, high volume vs. lower volume manufacturing...

Please break it down for us and I'd be quite surprised if you don't come back with exactly the same performance and pricing result as we did.

Then, please list any camera company or camera model that does any of what the RED ONE or new lineup does at any price. It might help you be more realistic in your expectations and recognize that we did EVERYTHING possible to deliver the right system.

I'll give you a hint... creating a FF35 sensor that does 100fps vs. the same sensor that does 60fps costs exponentially more in production, let alone development. I thought I had done pretty well in business school, but I am certainly willing to listen to anyone that has more information than I do. We did listen to your wishes on this site to re-vamp the entire program. I'm all ears.

My best,

Jim
 
Jannard said:
Scarletusers. I am not exactly sure what you think you know about sensors and sensor development, electronics boards (including compression engines), monitor paths, heat management, the space to house each of these, the cost of a high-speed sensor vs. a slow DSLR sensor of the same size, ASIC development, high volume vs. lower volume manufacturing...

Please break it down for us and I'd be quite surprised if you don't come back with exactly the same performance and pricing result as we did.

Then, please list any camera company or camera model that does any of what the RED ONE or new lineup does at any price. It might help you be more realistic in your expectations and recognize that we did EVERYTHING possible to deliver the right system.

I'll give you a hint... creating a FF35 sensor that does 100fps vs. the same sensor that does 60fps costs exponentially more in production, let alone development. I thought I had done pretty well in business school, but I am certainly willing to listen to anyone that has more information than I do. We did listen to your wishes on this site to re-vamp the entire program. I'm all ears.

My best,

Jim
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Jim, I think you misunderstood. Peter's post was from a long time ago, back when the initial Scarlet specs were revealed. We just resuscitated a very old thread because it seems that Peter's request, in many ways, predicted the new Scarlet specs (not that any of us at the time actually believed it possible!) :)

I, for one, am thrilled with the new Scarlet & Epic specs. You people are making the impossible a reality, and deserve a standing ovation.
 
Tom said:
Jim, this is a really old thread.
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This is so funny! lol:)

Scarletuser for just Scarletusers

and

Reduser with sub Scarlet?

Plus Scarletuser.com has archive of old Scarlet. haha
 
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