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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Some explanation & apologies……

I don't think a 5 month old epic s35 brain will go from 28k to 8k in resale value. Epic will have more to offer than scarlet other than frame rates although it hasn't been clearly stated by Red what that is. If you think about the control possibilities in the imaging chain beyond resolution, frame rate and dynamic range there are a lot of blanks to fill.

These blanks will be filled.

Also consider this: beyond an effect, for regular dramatic shooting a s35 sensor will be #1 choice. If you're doing s35 on an ff35 sensor you are windowing the sensor. On the r1, when windowing the sensor from 4k to 3k or 2k there is a loss of dynamic range. Ff35 monstro will most likely not outperform x s35 when windowed to s35. You will have the added flexibility to shoot ff35 for still and motion when needed for effect which is nice with the ff35 but also an increase in data that you have to justify with production.

I for one am thinking epic s35 x will be the industy workhorse. Back it up with a s35 scarlet or ff35 scarlet and you're set.
 
Couple of things...
Deanan says cropping of the FF35 does not affect dynamic range
http://www.reduser.net/forum/showpost.php?p=321658&postcount=1439

Regarding the second hand Epic S35 price, probably at least 6000 Redusers will have the opportunity to trade in for a 'free' one, so forget most of them.
Then when you're selling your Epic s35, most people will be selling them at the same time the SS35 Epic and Scarlet ($9.5K) is on sale. Expect demand not to be thru the roof. conjecture I realise, but we have to make some sort of plans....
D
Florian Stadler said:
...I for one am thinking monstro s35 x will be the industy workhorse.
Click to expand...
you mean the Mysterium X s35 I guess.
 
David, I get where you're coming from. You're after the Monstro.

In that context...

If the end goal is the Monstro, the Epic X is not the way to go, in my opinion. No matter how you crunch the numbers, there is no getting away from two facts:

1) You have to buy the brain at retail cost.
2) You have to sell a used camera and no longer get the full 17.5k credit.

So if it's the monstro you're after, it's either waiting for the Epic so you can apply the full 17.5 credit towards it, or going for the Scarlett FF35 (the sell of a Red One will hopefully put you into a full working Scarlett?).
 
David,

The epic s35 is not free it's 28000 dollars.

You get 3 free modules as a generous gift as a previous r1 owner AND you get to trade in your r1 at full value which is amazing.

Also know that in 2009 they are going to announce the Terminator sensor and in 2010
the Armageddon sensor and in 2011 the Apocalipso with 14, 15 and 27 stops respectively. Technology is moving on at a brisk pace. Jim has just given you a head start and a modular system that won't force you to upgrade everything but just the brain.
You can skip a generationof sensors if your clients or yourself don't have the need for the latest and greatest and if you're camera is sitting on a shelf rather than be working paying itself off and generating PROFIT.

Yes I meant epic mysterium x s35 becoming the workhorse in 2009/10
 
Revised 1st post……..

For existing R1 owners, the cost of an Epic X is $500.
This is based on trading-in the R1 ($17.5K) plus $10.5K for an Epic X ($28K) with $10K worth of free accessories.


For R1 owners, the previous (13 Nov) cost of an s35 was $10.5K.
This was based on trading-in the R1 ($17.5K) plus $10.5K for an Epic X ($28K)

Buyers who want to enter the pro cinema (Epic) market cheaply can buy either a second hand s35 with higher fps or a new FF35 with higher stops. So let’s set the resale price of a 2nd hand s35 at $8K slightly under a new FF35 Scarlet ($10K).

The next step will be buying a FF35 at $33K. So here are the sums……

Existing scenario
1. For existing R1 owners, who trade-in their R1 (plus $10.5K) for an Epic X, buy an Epic FF35($33K) outright, then sell their Epic S35(-$8K), the total cost will be:
$10.5K + $33K - $8K = $35.5K
This gets you an Epic FF35 with $10K worth of accessories.
So the real cost of an Epic FF35 (body only) is:
$35.5K- $10K = $25.5K

2. For existing R1 owners, who upgrade their R1 sensor ($4.5K), then trade-in their R1 ($17.5K) for an Epic FF35 ($33K), the total cost will be:
$4.5K + $33K - $17.5K = $20K
This gets you an Epic FF35 (body only)

Result: Difference in the existing upgrade paths 1 ($25.5K) & path 2 ($20K) = $5.5K

Previous scenario
3. The old R1/Epic s35 upgrade to FF35 deal total cost was:
$10.5K + $35K - $8K = $37.5K

4. The old R1 sensor upgrade, then trade-in the R1 for an Epic FF35 costs:
$4.5K + $35K - $17.5K = $22K

Result: Larger difference in the old upgrade path 3 ($37.5) and path 4 ($22K) = $15.5K

Bottom line: Jim fixed this large difference ($15.5K)with the Epic X deal/Epic FF35 price reduction…..many thanks

Dave
 
David,
Thats the first post of your on this thread where you math makes sense to me. :)

One thing that is not going into the equation:

How many batteries does everyone own?
Charger?
Top mounts?
Top Handle and extension?
All the little toys?

Now add in the new riser, you are going to want a side handle, etc

If spending any where from $10.5k to $20k to get the next greatest thing is too much for you, then it brings us back to the question of:

If the X sensor, or the monstro, goes into an R1, what else gets swapped out inside the R1 and what specs does that bring the camera to?

None of us can answer that, but it is never the less going to be an answer that will help the people who were dismayed at the Nov-Dec 2008 RED unleashes camerageddon event.

Oh and just to be clear, I am not bashing the DSMC system. I want to do very naughty things to the new system and we've barely meet. This is just me thinking about all of those owner ops who cant afford to throw another 20k at the wall.
 
J. Eric Camp said:
David,
Thats the first post of your on this thread where you math makes sense to me. :)

One thing that is not going into the equation:

How many batteries does everyone own?
Charger?
Top mounts?
Top Handle and extension?
All the little toys?

Now add in the new riser, you are going to want a side handle, etc

If spending any where from $10.5k to $20k to get the next greatest thing is too much for you, then it brings us back to the question of:

If the X sensor, or the monstro, goes into an R1, what else gets swapped out inside the R1 and what specs does that bring the camera to?

None of us can answer that, but it is never the less going to be an answer that will help the people who were dismayed at the Nov-Dec 2008 RED unleashes camerageddon event.

Oh and just to be clear, I am not bashing the DSMC system. I want to do very naughty things to the new system and we've barely meet. This is just me thinking about all of those owner ops who cant afford to throw another 20k at the wall.
Click to expand...

Eric,

well said.

Totally agree with you.
 
david farland said:
Revised 1st post……..

For existing R1 owners, the cost of an Epic X is $500.
This is based on trading-in the R1 ($17.5K) plus $10.5K for an Epic X ($28K) with $10K worth of free accessories.


For R1 owners, the previous (13 Nov) cost of an s35 was $10.5K.
This was based on trading-in the R1 ($17.5K) plus $10.5K for an Epic X ($28K)

Buyers who want to enter the pro cinema (Epic) market cheaply can buy either a second hand s35 with higher fps or a new FF35 with higher stops. So let’s set the resale price of a 2nd hand s35 at $8K slightly under a new FF35 Scarlet ($10K).

The next step will be buying a FF35 at $33K. So here are the sums……

Existing scenario
1. For existing R1 owners, who trade-in their R1 (plus $10.5K) for an Epic X, buy an Epic FF35($33K) outright, then sell their Epic S35(-$8K), the total cost will be:
$10.5K + $33K - $8K = $35.5K
This gets you an Epic FF35 with $10K worth of accessories.
So the real cost of an Epic FF35 (body only) is:
$35.5K- $10K = $25.5K

2. For existing R1 owners, who upgrade their R1 sensor ($4.5K), then trade-in their R1 ($17.5K) for an Epic FF35 ($33K), the total cost will be:
$4.5K + $33K - $17.5K = $20K
This gets you an Epic FF35 (body only)

Result: Difference in the existing upgrade paths 1 ($25.5K) & path 2 ($20K) = $5.5K

Previous scenario
3. The old R1/Epic s35 upgrade to FF35 deal total cost was:
$10.5K + $35K - $8K = $37.5K

4. The old R1 sensor upgrade, then trade-in the R1 for an Epic FF35 costs:
$4.5K + $35K - $17.5K = $22K

Result: Larger difference in the old upgrade path 3 ($37.5) and path 4 ($22K) = $15.5K

Bottom line: Jim fixed this large difference ($15.5K)with the Epic X deal/Epic FF35 price reduction…..many thanks

Dave
Click to expand...

Okay, I get this David. But it's based on a HUGE assumption (as you know) that the accessories is $10k.

But I get what you're saying. We all should be grateful to the RCCF (Red Camera Charity Foundation).

On top of an already generous and unprecedented $17.5k credit, Jim dropped the price by $2k (FF35) and threw in free accessories that could potentially be $10k worth.
 
This whole math effort seems completely kooky to me, we don't have any information for making mathematical assumptions about pricing.

RED sweetened their original trade-in deal, so that 1) new buyers are encouraged to keep buying RED ONEs throughout the development process and 2) to enable the RED ONE owners to maintain the value of their cameras in a way that enables their transition into the modular program - so that we can continue to spend more money on modular upgrades, as they develop. This is good business. Win-win for everybody. I can say personally that I will spend more money with a more cheerful attitude, now that I know there is a value-added pathway to the modular system.

They listened and responded with a solution that suits their business needs and keeps their early adopters to be able to adapt more easily to the future path of RED development.

If that is the case, why is this pseudo-math even relevant?

Just a straight up apology and a thank you seems sufficient....
 
Meryem Ersoz said:
This whole math effort seems completely kooky to me, we don't have any information for making mathematical assumptions about pricing.
Click to expand...

Thank you!

I appreciate David's efforts, but I think we're all over-analyzing the situation based on a bunch of wild-ass guesses.

I think the best way to look at it is this:

The EPIC S35 costs $28K for the brain alone. We have no information about how much the additional modules will cost. Let's not also forget that everyones' needs are different. Some people will need more modules than others, depending on what they will be doing with the camera.

Current RED owners can trade in their RED One body toward any model of EPIC for $17.5K off the EPIC brain's price.

As an added bonus to RED One owners, they can buy the EPIC X. It's an EPIC S35 with a bonus. RED is going to hand-pick the Mysterium X chips that go into these X brains. I'm going to make another wild-ass guess here and assume that much like processor chips, not all CMOS sensors are equal as they roll off the fab line. By hand-picking these sensors, RED can guarantee better performance, hence the REDCODE 250 on the EPIC X vs. the REDCODE 225 on the EPIC S35. The other part of the bonus for RED One owners buying an EPIC X is that RED is throwing in the CF, battery and IO modules for free... We don't know what the value of those three modules are. David is speculating that they are worth $10K. I don't think so, I'm going to guess $500 to $1500 per module, depending on what it does.

EPIC X brain plus the included modules is also $28K, but with the 3 free modules thrown in. RED owners can buy one outright or trade in their RED One and get $17.5K credit, leaving a $10.5K balance.

Assuming the 3 included modules balance out that $10.5K is pretty foolish, IMO.
 
And Jeff gets the cookie!

He is right. Semi-complex equations based on "guestamite" numbers will only serve to frustrate people when the real numbers arrive and change the game. For better or worse.
 
J. Eric Camp said:
And Jeff gets the cookie!

He is right. Semi-complex equations based on "guestamite" numbers will only serve to frustrate people when the real numbers arrive and change the game. For better or worse.
Click to expand...

I agree. It could be that the "X" factor could be beneficial when R1 owners who have taken the offer on the Epic X decide to sell and trade up to one of the Monstro brains. Perhaps the used X range could hold their value better? The other option would be to spend the $10.5K value of the R1/X trade-in on a Scarlet and use the R1 trade-in later as well as the Scarlet sale when the Monstro arrives. But all is conjecture at this stage.
 
The end game of this comparison is of course a Monstro (or higher) sensor which in 4 years we’ll have all achieved or better (unless we’re out of the game or better options than Red (shock thought!) come along
The purpose of the comparison is just that. To compare upgrade paths.
I could have included the R1/Monstro upgrade path as well, but with a number of assumptions already made with the info at hand, that just turns into a meltdown.

Okay, the first assumption I’ve made is value of accessories.This is Jim’s gift or balancing act.
If he decided to give us $100K worth of free accessories, of course the upgrade via Epic X paths becomes more financially attractive.
Similarly, if the value of Jim’s gift is $2K, the Epic X upgrade becomes less financially attractive.
Same goes for the resale value of the Epic S35.

The point of my approach is to get to a Epic Monstro and above.
Getting there I want to know financial estimates. I’ll plan with the facts available to me.
As I get more facts, my plans become more accurate.
Now that doesn’t nullify my approach/equations.
So please stop saying its stupid/crazy/foolish to assume this price or that. It’s a start…okay. We need to start somewhere.
It’s crazier not to begin planning or working out rough business cases and going blindly in the future.
The main thing is I’ve got the simple equations where I plug in the most accurate (or inaccurate) figures at hand.

It can be fine tuned as we get more info….chill guys, don’t read it as an attempt to create the last word in financial mgmt.
Jim does some pretty nice equations where he’s balancing his pricing, costs; timings etc so he can carve out his business cases and it’s nice to get a little insight into that and how the figures float.
Dave,

ps: looking forward to how he’s going to price the same accessories for a $5K & 50K camera.
 
It's about the Brain. The accessories will be a commodity and they will be affordable for all. The brain is priced based on the specs. EPIC is not CHEAP, but it sure is FULLY FEATURED.

SCARLET is enough for HOLLYWOOD and to me is better than RED ONE (Price per performance wise) but will become the indie camera. The EPIC will become the default HOLLYWOOD camera. The S35 one will. NOT the Full Frame dues to the lenses.
 
Your numbers are really wacky to me.

First the "trade in" value of the S35X. it is better than the $28K Epic s35 and is a far better camera than is currently out on the market. So, assuming that it is the first camera shipped (which is announced), and it will ship long before the Epic FF.

If someone needs a camera now, and wants to buy the best camera on the market on that day--it would be the S35X. it is a better camera than the S35 which wouldn't even be shipping at that point, and far better than the Red One. Add on top of that--no one will be able to even buy the s35. The X may even have a value greater than $28K--even though I spent only $10.5+my Red for it.

You can't compare "my cost" with the "value" to a non-red owner, camera buyer--to see that go back in history a year when there was a six month waiting list for Reds. Sale price didn't have much to do with what people paid for it. And besides--I didn't just pay $10.5K for it--I also had to trade in the best camera I've ever owned--there's value to that, too.

So where do you get $8K? If someone is looking to buy a camera, and they can't get their hands on any Epic--let alone the x month wait for the FF, and the 35X is the best camera on the market at this time, do you really think that it is only worth $8K when their only other option is to get on a waiting list for a S35 at $28K?

Add on top of that your accessory estimates. I think that's about $2.5K worth of stuff. Compact flash? I'd say $500. Battery module (didn't say anything about actual batteries--just the ability to mount them to the body) I'd say $1000 if that and breakout box can't be more than $1000.

But, in the end of it all--why bother? Just wait and get the full trade in for the FF35 and buy the accessories yourself.
 
Most people will be selling their Epic s35 (either) during 1010/1011.
In the market you'll have over 6000 Red owners who don't want your Epic and are probably selling theirs along side you. It won't be like the R1/Epic cutover where Red is taking back all the early models. The S35 Scarlet (7K), FF35 Scarlet (10K), FF35 Epic (33K or R1 trade-in) will all be on the market. Stops & chrom rez are usually more useful than fps. If I'm in the market for a cheaper camera, will I look for your EpicX 100fps/+1stop old technology camera or will i purchase a Scarlet FF35/30fps/+3stops new technology 'Interim' camera @ $10K?
I'll get the Scarlet and use it as a back up for my Epic FF35.
And my guess is that your Epic X will be more value to you as a backup than resale also.
D
 
I think the eventual cost of the modules will determine which upgrade people go for - it's a completely unknown quantity right now. It could actually be quite a lot, but fortunately there are one and two bits you can recycle from your Red One.

I'd imagine Red will continue their overly generous, very competitive pricing strategy for these parts purely because a) it seems to be their mantra and b) it would be pretty transparent and a big turn off if people got really excited about these great value new cameras only to eventually discover down the line that the modules to make then work are priced at a prohibitive expensive (kind of like being offered the deal of a lifetime on a brand new all-electric sports car but then discovering the key to turn it on costs almost as much as the car itself - you'd perhaps feel a bit...manipulated...turned off from your original excitement?)

The costs could be as little as, say, $500 for the CF module (presumably not that different to the ones they make now?), maybe a little more for the lens mounts ($750?). Then there's at least four batteries, 2 chargers and the actual battery module itself (sounds pricey - the equivalent with Red One is $3000 without any module!), but this isn't completely essential because I think I'm right in saying you can use your old Red batteries.

The I/O module sounds pretty pricey (if the ET breakout box is $580 Red's I/O module will probably be a lot more than this). But the priciest sounding thing is the Redmote (wireless controller) - this sounds like quite a complex and pricey bit of kit. I'm assuming this is essential for controlling the camera and accessing menus etc? But am I right in thinking this isn't included in the Epic X's free accessories so would be an added cost (sorry to muck up everyone's maths if that is the case :whistling:)?

$10,000 for accessories sounds about right (including top mounts/handles etc) but it could be a lot less, for example, if you can do without the battery module, new batteries and chargers? Then the figure could be more like $6000 (?)

[end of idle speculation]
 
Hi

The wild conjecture present in this thread is both amusing and telling. I'm puzzled why anyone was originally 'really' upset by David's thinking.

To through in some some potentially useful/useless observations:

Epic X's sensor size is exactly the size needed for a 6 micron chip to have a 5k horizontal resolution. (this make me feel that if monsto development is really only 3-6months behind X there may still be some changes)

A I/O module that encompasses high quality video DA and audio AD/DA stages and a load of formatting chips is unlikely to be cheap. The ET BOB is not that same thing.

An advanced propriety compact flash module that can handle the significant task that a Epic will demand is not like the current clip on SATA device.

If Red answer most of the criticism of the current control system and make a on board WIFI module that doesn't look out of place on a precision high end body expect some $$$ ( I would be stunned if the 4 modules come in for less than a total of $7k)

There is no way 6 thousand people will be offloading Epic Xs at the same time. Relax!

Epic X will sell because it competes in the commercials world and it is very cheap for Red owners. Studio work does not need 13+ stops of dynamic range. Because Epic S35 is more similar to Red one in file type I expect it to slip more quickly into Red one post paths (this will be a big deal). There simply is no other super versatile electronic camera available to compete with it for commercials.

Lets relax a bit in the knowledge that we are at 'least' (I'll take bets from anyone other than Mr Janard) 10months away from the option of 'any' Epic.

regards

Michael L
 
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