Shake has been discontinued.

[Mel Matsuoka]

It was not merely a marketing tool. It was a tool to sell Apple hardware. They released FCS 3 to keep people interested and attached to their system while they continue tinkering with snow leopard. I would venture a guess in saying that after snow leopard and before FCS 4 we will get new compositing software. Think of the advances that 64bit offers to pro applications. The creative professionals like us are the ones that are going to need and shout the benefits of 64, and what better to show it of than hollywood using nice new macs. average consumer is never gonna notice that much of a difference.

Yeah its a long shot. Yeah, I am probably wrong. But I like Shake and I am a pretty hopeful guy who likes to imagine that something good will come of all this. Regardless, i will continue using shake until it is no longer reasonable to do so.

Your optimism is admirable, but in this case, misguided.

Ron Brinkmann has stated on numerous occasions that he considers Shake to be deader than dead, with very little chance of "Phenomenon" ever seeing the light of day.

Brinkmann also mentioned on Twitter last year that during his time with the company, Apple never really gave Shake and the ProApps division credit for hardware sales. This isn't surprising. My guess is that most of the serious Shake-based VFX houses were/are running Shake on Linux, which makes sense when you consider the significant cost-savings of building out a Linux based shop, vs. a Mac based one.

Shake did not make money for Apple. Apple, being a public company, is obligated to its shareholders to make money, and not waste resources on non-profitable endeavors. Ergo, "Phenomenon" will not happen

As a die-hard, daily user of Shake, I wish none of this were true (and I'm willing to eat my words if we're all eventually proven wrong). But there is absolutely no evidence to indicate otherwise.

 

[Mike Harrington]

I love how the Mac consumers have so much faith in Jobs and Co, that they believe a product is inevitably coming after years of delay when the very developers in that department quit because they "want to be involved in high end VFX"

Ron Brinkmann quote

I really can’t say much about where Apple may or may not be going with future products. Although the fact that I decided it was time to move on might be a reasonable clue as to my confidence level that any alleged ‘next generation’ tool will be focused on the market (high end vfx and animation) that I’m interested in… And why I’m now working with The Foundry on Nuke…

http://digitalcompositing.wordpress.com/about/

 

[Jochen Kunstler]

Hi Mel,
this is a little off topixc, but I am prepping a feature shot on Red, where I was hoping to be able to do some green screen shots of 4KDPX by myself (as always tie and money issues). I have used Shake with Primatte and it has always worked great for me, but I have never used it with 4K files.
Now in my test after loading the image sequence with the file in node I get the ball of death and Shake locks up (MAC PRO 2 x 2.26 GHz 4 core, 12 GB RAM, ATI GFX card, OS 10.5.7. SHAKE 4.1.1.).
Was it a mistake to do the 4.1.1 update or is what I'm trying to do beyond the system capabilities, or am I missing a simple setting to enable the system to handle these 4K sequences (1min each)? - Any hint would be appreciated.

 

[Michael Hastings]

Hmm, are you confident enough that you would put money on it?

I would put money on the idea that there will be an actual significant upgrade to the FC studio package within a year of snow leopard release.

It is easy and cute to say that "Apple makes iphones now" and obviously that may be the big profit center at the moment and iphone acceptance has led to greater mac acceptance and increased sales of computers but it isn't the only profit center.

I don't think Final cut ever made its sales on the basis of being "THE BEST EDITOR/COMPOSITOR/GRADER, ETC." it sold because it was very close to Avid and others and a whole lot cheaper and it kept getting better. The pace of getting better has slowed because - unfortunately for us - they don't really NEED to accelerate it as the overall installed base is hesitant (and may not even need) to switch and the number of RED owners that are FCS users isn't large enough to really force a significant acceleration.

The logical point of major upgrade is after SNOW Leopard and again unfortunately for us Apple is in the same position as RED - they don't NEED to rush, they can take their time to get it where they want it without spending overtime/rush resources. Iphone success means Apple doesn't need the cash flow right now so nothing to push them to release ASAP. They will get enough of a boost to justify keeping an FCS team going with just the money from the current "incremental" upgrade

It also helps these public companies to have a steady stream of new things to hype. Right now they don't need it with Snow Leopard and then the new tablet computer early next year - so major FCS upgrade would just get lost in the noise.

But a year from now a new, rewritten 64 bit FCS with some level of enhanced compositing would be something to talk about AND push sales of the highend hardware. From what people say here, SHAKE - while not really state of the art - is still pretty cool so just incorporating it plus whatever minor improvements would be a worthwhile addition to the suite. Remember, as I said before FCS has never needed to be THE BEST, it just needs to be close and cheaper. For the hundreds of thousands of current users - the upgrade price is almost always a lot cheaper than switching.

If you think Apple should get to where Ron Brinkman wants to be ("high end vfx and animation that I’m interested in…") I think it is an unrealistic expectation. I don't think you can count on Apple, Avid, or Adobe ever really being there - the leading edge will probably always come from a smaller company.

 

[Brandon Kraemer]

Your optimism is admirable, but in this case, misguided.

Ron Brinkmann has stated on numerous occasions that he considers Shake to be deader than dead, with very little chance of "Phenomenon" ever seeing the light of day.

I'd almost bank on that... Brinkmann obviously knows what he is talking about. I think the bottom line is continue to use Shake as a community supported application, or move to Nuke and spend some real $ doing it. I think the most we can hope for is that Apple sells off Shake and someone runs with it, but I have never known Apple to be a seller of software, more like a black hole.

 

[Steve MacMillan]

I have never known Apple to be a seller of software, more like a black hole.

Filemaker being the exception. It has been said that Apple has used some of the tech from Shake in their products, such as Optical Flow. Why is it that it seems to work so much better in Shake?

sm

 

[Scott Crawley]

I don't really think that Apple bought Shake with the sole intent of scuttling it, but I will bet that the primary motive for the acquisition was to add some of that tech to their existing products.
I think we will see more Shake tech in the existing suite as we have with Color. Whether or not nodal compositing will come to FCS, and if it will come in the form of enhanced features within the existing apps, or as a new app within the suite is just something we'll have to wait and see. My own prediction is that we will see some compositing improvements in FCP 8 as opposed to a full fledged app.

 

[John Jonathan]

A close friend was one of the main developers on MOTION and was part of it during its HYPE faze all the way to release. He had a signed a 60 page legal non-disclosure agreement, he couldn't tell me what the interface looked like, but told me a lot during its development.

To me it seemed HYPE first and product second. Every-time he would come back from work he would say, "Its supposed to kill AE, bring Adobe to its knees" Then a month later it would be like, "We're all getting fired, the main developers from COMBUSTION are getting sued, were all getting fired, its soo buggy, the COMBUSTION guys can't deliver"

It wen't back and forth like that. I know that is how software works, but I don't know a single soul that uses Motion over AE. Maybe some people that do wedding videos, stuff like that, but no AE users switched to Motion.

I think Apple is over that sort of hype and destroy when it comes to software, they tried it with MOTION and with Aperture. It has sold a little hardware, but not that much.

I think Apple will always do a steady release of innovation and product improvement, but I think we won't every see any ground breaking earth shattering products that will bring any company to its knees in one release. Apple has enjoyed its steading clawing back into the world from its near death in the early 90's, and I think thats its plan for years and years to come.

 

[martinnoweck]

maybe arri will chime in ;-)

http://www.arri.de/index.php?id=2508

 

[Scott Crawley]

A close friend was one of the main developers on MOTION... Every-time he would come back from work he would say, "Its supposed to kill AE, bring Adobe to its knees" Then a month later it would be like, "We're all getting fired, the main developers from COMBUSTION are getting sued, were all getting fired, its soo buggy, the COMBUSTION guys can't deliver"

It wen't back and forth like that.

It's important to have goals, dont you think? hehhe