Terry VerHaar
Well-known member
There is NO WAY I'd take a bet like that, if I were you. We have NO CLUE how close RED is, and really how much actually needs to be finished. So for you to put money on it, seems reckless to me. But hey, what do I know, you could be a deginerate gambler, who enjoys taking risky bets. :smilewinkgrin:
I think you mean "degenerate" :nonod: and no, I am not much of a gambler at all. In fact, I spent 3 days in Las Vegas at NAB and RED Day and never once gambled, unless you consider the lottery tickets at the RED event. Interestingly enough, with $20 worth of tickets I won a $479 hard drive kit in the RED lottery!!
I am basing my evaluation on the follow scenario:
1) There are already several prototype Epics shooting footage as we speak.
2) It is my opinion that, unless Jim is flat on his back while recovering his health, he is probably spending several hours every day with his own Epic testing it like no one else can
3) I think we are close to the beginning of the Tattoo program and will see it kick off between June 1 and June 15
4) I think Tattoo will last 30-45 days and that they will be doing fixes on a daily basis whenever they find things that need fixing.
5) Once Tattoo is complete, it will take another 15 days or so to "button up" the issues that remain
6) Then, Stage 2 will start and Epics will begin shipping - some time in August
7) At that point, very little will remain to be "debugged" on Scarlet. As Jarred said in his recent "answers..." post, "The ASIC, Sensor and Lens work have been complete ( the hard parts ), but there is still alot of firmware work to be done and some minor mechanical changes waiting on tooling." That means that right now, an awful lot is already complete and finalized. They will be working on the firmware throughout the Tattoo phase and will have very, very little left when Tattoo is complete.
8) Based on the indication that RED has always put Scarlet about 60 days behind Epic, I see Scarlet being released in the October time frame. Optimistic, maybe, but that gives me a couple months leeway as far as putting my money where my mouth is. :laugh:
Elsewhere on this forum, several weeks ago, I jokingly made a prediction that Scarlet release would be announced on September 20 at 9:52 PM. I'll stick behind that - but don't ask me to bet on it!
Could I be wrong? Absolutely. I just see the odds very heavily in my favor. I'd be the first to admit that the betting thing is a little macho/juvenile but I guess I set myself up for "putting up or shutting up." I really don't like being wrong so I try not to be, as often as possible. :embarassed: In this case I am sure most of us hope I am not. I am counting on the positive vibes of the group!!!
GO RED!!!