Redonomics

[Rolf Kestermann]

Buy Red (.5)$ 17500, Upgrade to MX (Red One)$ 5700, Return new Chip and Body and upgrade to Epic $ 10500, Upgrade to Dragon $ 9500, Return new Chip and Body and Upgrade to Weapon...$?. After a 43200 Camera body subscription (before Weapon) , not even considering Accessories, Media, connectors etc I am amused about the enthusiasm by so many to keep playing this cat and mouse game. Considering how long it takes to have an order fulfilled, it is a lot easier and cost effective to wait until
the product is actually available in the store, at a considerable discount from its introduction. Reds devaluation of the Epic seems forgotten. Patience is called for.

 

[Brian Merlen]

So buy Arri, no one is stopping you... Depending on the specs and costs I might go mini over Weapon, at least in the short run...Not sure yet though

 

[Gunleik Groven]

Having had access to a very competitive camera since 2008 for what is still (even including the Weapon upgrade) not amounting to an XT and a few Codex boxes, isn't all that bad...

 

[Mike Nagel]

Rolf,

let's see what we have here:

so u paid 43K to consistently own and use for the last 8 years one of the top-of-the-food chain cameras... for 8 years. Wow. You were shooting 4K 8 years ago, Arri still don't do it. And for that 43K u could have made just a deposit on an Arri, u still wouldn't own anything.

Sounds like a very good deal.

There's peeps who make that 43K back easily in less than 6 months. EASILY. So they basically always had the best RED cam for free for 7.5 years. Not bad.

U know what's even better ?

U sell ur Dragon right now, u get easily 25K on the market, that brings ur cam body investment down to 18K. 18K over 8 years, having the best or one of the best cams on the market. Shooting 4K since 2007 and the frame rates, R3dcode etc pp

Now... blablabla... u know that u could have easily made 18K over 8 years renting the cam or shooting student films in Timbuktu or just shooting 4K stock footage of ur big toe... ;-)

Q.e.d.

Look at the upfront investment on the F65 and what they are selling for right now... these peeps are losing easily 70K... for ONE cam (in just 3 years). U owned FOUR cams (in 8 years): R1, R1 MX, Epic-X, Dragon.

Q.e.d. ^ 2

 

[Robert Ruffo New]

While I don't think Red has been a bad deal by any means, I do feel it has gone back to being better to rent.

Things move so fast now, that unless you shoot very many days a month, rental is the smart move. This isn't Red's fault.

I must also say that the Epic price drop and Red One MX Battle Tested Blow-Out sale a few years ago, which are Red's fault, have contributed to my feeling that owning vs renting is much too risky and no longer worth it. That said the loss of value in the F65 doesn't help either. That is SUPER SCARY.

I do see a near future point where owning will no longer make sense even for rental companies. Even they will no longer be able to amortize faster than depreciation. Then what? Who will buy the new cameras? Who will pay for innovation?

We see what happened to computers when too many people stopped feeling the need to upgrade. Moore's law is long over for processing speed.

It's a real problem.

 

[Mike Nagel]

the "risk" of owning RED is much lower than with other companies (within the "top league"), as per the above example... and (AFAIK) with the F65 there is no trade-in program, so that u could hope that jumping on the next big Sony cam may bring u some of ur money back (if Sony does not make the same mistakes again)... no, u gotta buy a new cam.

Renting vs. owning, depends. For somebody like u who's mastered the MX, when u rent the cam, u know what u're doing and the cam hasn't changed. But for newbies, who don't know the cam, they gotta know how to shoot the cam (any cam for that matter) so owning is great if u wanna learn the cam and make lots of workflow test runs: production and post-production... Scarlet is a great entry line... also, renting always adds 2 days - 1 to rent and 1 to bring back...

I don't think the rental biz will go away... peeps always wanna shoot on the latest cam, rental houses will have them... the big Arri is so expensive, almost nobody will own them except rental houses... and at the end of the life-cycle they still get a chunk back when they sell the cam, so they won't lose out... also, the service and maintenance of (good) rental houses is very important to a lot of productions.

 

[Erich Roland]

You don't have to upgrade (save your money this round, wait till used gear is in supply) and your Red investment can still do solid professional work.

I can think of a few other very good investments in camera's over the last say 30 year where if you got in at the beginning and rode the train till the last stop you would have done very well, like Betacam, Varicam, F900, Alexa. Video/digital cameras have a life cycle determined by many factors, and these days that life cycle can be very short. Look at Sony's F3 wildly loved right out of the gate, but the love lasted about one year before the next model came out and the value dropped like a rock. Its a tough game to predict and Red does protect your investment where no other company does. When you add up all the upgrades its a lot of money, but if you'd taken a Sony path or a Arri path or any other path you could have spend a lot more money in eight years specially if you need to be at (or near) the top bar of the tech available. If saving money is the most important factor then choose a lower bar like a EX-1 type camera and make video's, that will save you lots of money. The leading edge can and will cost money, its not for everyone.

 

[Hans von Sonntag]

It's a real problem.

Not really. The only problem one faces is the return of investment in the typically 3 years of life-span an electronic high-end camera has today. After these 3 years the camera becomes less attractive for the market which can be seen in its resale value. If you are able to earn enough money in this timeframe things are fine. If you can't, rent. It's thats easy.

--

My calculation: investment into Red system, I skipped the MX upgrade: 37.500 minus discounts as an early adopter approx.: 35.000. Plus new EVF, third party accessories: 42.000

42.000 / 7 years of ownership = 6.000 p.a. This are 10 days in a year @ 600 EUR. Possible?

Ok. To make things more realistic add insurance and re-investments such as batteries, charger etc.. and you are golden with 15 days p.a. To be more precise, 15 days mean 1.25 days per month.

---

I don't rent my camera out, at least not as a business model. I use it for my own projects. But there are colleagues who every here an then need a Dragon Epic and call me. Since the beginning of this year I've rented it out 5 times and shot myself on paid jobs 3 times and used it for experimental stuff 4 days. No big usage but economical sufficient. I'm not a DP, I'm a writer and director who has been 10 years ago working as a DP for 15 years. If I were a working DP with local clients owner ship of a Red Dragon is a no-brainer. If I were an internationally working DP renting would be much more meaningful. But then salaries are much higher and the organisation of shipping the own camera package would be not worth the expenses.

Before I invested out of curiosity into the Red Casino in 2006 (pay 1k and wait until we call you, then pay another 16.500 and wait for your digital S-35mm camera) I rented, jobs were anywhere in the world and 35mm cameras were much too expensive for personal ownership. However I owned and still own a S-16mm Arri SR which served me 15 years well. We all know that 35mm film mopeds are door stoppers now. But even an original RedOne isn't. They still have some value for students. A complete MX page sells for 5k.

Do the math: 17.500 + 5.700 MX upgrade = 23.200 Add 5k for accessories and batteries 28.200. The first 3 years you got the full fee, say 600. 28.200 divided by 600 = 47. Add 10 days more for batteries and insurance. Add another 10 days extra for bad jobs: You need 2 renting days a months to return you investment in 3 years. Now that the camera is starting to age but still much too young for the scarp heap you cannot charge 600 anymore, now you charge 300 a day. Insurance is about 1k a year and other 2.000 are required for maintenance. With the 3.000 divided by 300 = 10. Now you need less than 1 renting day a month to keep the camera running. After 7 years you sell for 4k. Possible? For industry pros with the right business model yes, of course - and with a good profit. For hobbyists and travelling DPs who don't have the time to take care of their camera, no.



Hans

 

[Clayton Burkhart]

Buy Red (.5)$ 17500, Upgrade to MX (Red One)$ 5700, Return new Chip and Body and upgrade to Epic $ 10500, Upgrade to Dragon $ 9500, Return new Chip and Body and Upgrade to Weapon...$?. After a 43200 Camera body subscription (before Weapon) , not even considering Accessories, Media, connectors etc I am amused about the enthusiasm by so many to keep playing this cat and mouse game. Considering how long it takes to have an order fulfilled, it is a lot easier and cost effective to wait until
the product is actually available in the store, at a considerable discount from its introduction. Reds devaluation of the Epic seems forgotten. Patience is called for.

Agreed. Of course you won't have many fans around here. Because most people are still drinking the RED Kool-Aid.
Jannard, somewhat disingenously claimed you could have upgraded your camera 3-4 times and only spent about $43K total. When I pointed out the accessory game which adds a lot more everyone just applied the same old crap about how ungrateful I was, because of the genius of RED, blah, blah.

The reality is that reduser's want to take credit for every advance in the industry as if somehow RED invented it. The model everyone holds up is one from 2007 when cameras cost $150K and state that thanks to red we only have to pay tens of thousands instead of hundreds of thousands or at least $10K to upgrade every 12-18 months. Great, right? However, the REAL truth is that the 5D Mark II is what changed the industry pricing levels. Cost came down considerably after that.

And where was RED ? - $3k for 3k if I remember correctly. Funny how no one mentions that here anymore.
RED realized there was more money to be made from the owner operator who aspires to Hollywood, rather than the bread and butter ENG market or the cheapo hobbyists. You are all Hero's, and part of the Brave New World ! Ha ha. You too can use the same camera that was used on the Hobbitt. Yeah right. Just need that extra 100 million to cover my production expenses, now.

Here is the dilemma, prices are going to keep coming down. The difference between high end RED cameras and the rest of the market is lessening. It will be interesting to see how they can maintain their current pricing structure. I am not sure they can.

For someone like myself, getting in now at $40K (and yes that is what it would likely cost with all the necessary extras) makes no sense. Most of the advantages of 2007 have been integrated into the market. NAB will be interesting this year. I would be very surprisd if there wasn't a very competitive camera in the offering for $10-15K.

I use RED cameras and respect the product. But there is fast approaching the point when your upgrade is going to cost far more than the total cost of simply buying a new camera each time - if it hasn't arrived already.

 

[Scott Crawley]

I must also say that the Epic price drop and Red One MX Battle Tested Blow-Out sale a few years ago, which are Red's fault, have contributed to my feeling that owning vs renting is much too risky and no longer worth it. That said the loss of value in the F65 doesn't help either. That is SUPER SCARY.

I think I hear what you are saying but on the surface those are some pretty strong and short sighted words. I mean no offense by that. It just seems that you are not considering the bigger picture.

Red has managed camera values very, very well. R1 held value much longer than the vast majority of tech products and it was only allowed to fall in value after the company gave all R1 owners the opportunity to get all of their investment back. If I am hearing you correctly, the other way to say it is the only reason why R1 value fell as hard as it did was because the company gave all of their customers a new camera for free. Either way you slice it, that's a free ride. Edit: AND the free ride isn't happening again. That is reason to expect prices will not drop so sharply this product cycle.

If Red was guilty of anything when managing the value of R1 it was being loyal and generous with their customers to a fault. With that in mind, do you think they will deliberately do harm to Epic values?


Relax, the aircraft is leveling out a bit and things are smoothing out. Our pilot has mad skills and he has our backs.

 

[David Battistella]

Nobody even knows what the weapon is offering, but are quite willing to call Redusers idiots playing a "cat and mouse" game with redfor seven years for having a constantly improving product for incremental investments over that period. Oh yeah, plus Red owners have had a camera in their hands that they have been able to create images with.

I can can see and understand the arguments being presented, but I don't think ts fair to insult me (as I fall into an early adopter category) because I have decided to invest in this company and product.

 

[Donald MJ Anderson]

The Red modules that offer basic functions should be factored in to the cost. By not doing so its disingenuously deflating the numbers.

Obsolescence obsolete does not apply to current modules. Which is half the cost of the camera.

 

[Scott Crawley]

The Red modules that offer basic functions should be factored in to the cost. By not doing so its disingenuously deflating the numbers.

Obsolescence obsolete does not apply to current modules. Which is half the cost of the camera.

I propose that is why the DSMC form factor isn't going anywhere any time soon. The modules will not become obsolete with the release of Weapon.

 

[Tom Greenberg]

I propose that is why the DSMC form factor isn't going anywhere any time soon. The modules will not become obsolete with the release of Weapon.

While some DSMC modules will continue to be viable with Weapon, it seems likely that some (Side Handle, Switchblade, +1) will be obsolete. That's unfortunate, but I guess it's the price of progress. I just wish I could get some better return on those (not inexpensive) investments.

 

[Michael Hastings]

As an early adopter, I have been satisfied with the overall economics of my Red purchase, from R1 sn206 upgraded every stage to Dragon, but I think there have been some ups and downs with the program and I don't think it is REDhating or illegitimate to raise some of the points listed here.

It will be interesting to see the weapon program. I hope Red offers an "upgrade" path that allows keeping the existing camera like with the R1 body to epic body upgrade program, since there are many people that have substantial investments in accessory equipment-(even though my company will sell more underwater housings if they don't offer a "keeper" upgrade program. :wink5: )

I also hope that RED tries to keep the cost of the upgrades as low as possible as I did feel a little squeezed when the Dragon upgrade price became $9500 when it was - IIRC - originally supposed to be $6000. Red certainly has the right to charge whatever they want and raise prices, specs, etc. I'm just saying we were really on the borderline of whether to upgrade or not (even at our $8500 early adopter price) - it finally came down to keeping the faith and supporting and staying with the Red program more than feeling that it made great business sense.

 

[David Battistella]

The Red modules that offer basic functions should be factored in to the cost. By not doing so its disingenuously deflating the numbers.

Obsolescence obsolete does not apply to current modules. Which is half the cost of the camera.

The dsmc is modular. How is this disingenuous?

Does every camera come with a lens? Or even a viewfinder? Or even a lens mount? Or a battery? Or recording media?

Almost any any pro level camera needs these extras to begin recording.

and who says you have to buy from these things from red? You can buy a brain only with a third party mount, batteries and non touchscreen monitor and begin recording.

Media is not third party.

 

[Scott Crawley]

While some DSMC modules will continue to be viable with Weapon, it seems likely that some (Side Handle, Switchblade, +1) will be obsolete. That's unfortunate, but I guess it's the price of progress. I just wish I could get some better return on those (not inexpensive) investments.

Of that I am very aware. I'm still quite enamored with my side handle.

While I understand there will be some cast off for those who stay on the top tier, demand for DSMC modules will remain. That should keep resale values buoyant, though the most abundant modules on the resale market will likely dip in value. Those might be worth hanging on to for a little while, until the upgrade is done and supply thins out.

As long as Red keeps DSMC alive they will not become obsolete. The remaining question is how long will that be?

 

[Mark Wilkinson]

When I sold my R1MX kit last year for $8500, I did the math on the hours used and how much value was lost to depreciation. Turned out I'd paid $80/shoot day for it.

I felt pretty great about that.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

You know what pisses me off?

When RED saw that I hadn't purchased a RED ONE, they came to me around 2011 and threatened to take one of my two children if I didn't buy a Scarlet. Now, having only two children, I had to agree and did so, but imagine my anger when it actually cost so much I had to mortgage both of them to pay for it. If that wasn't enough, RED put me on a monthly subscription plan to buy all of their accessories. Dollar after dollar out the door with no possible way to earn my money back because, after all, I am in the dry cleaning business and have absolutely no need for a camera.

Now, without any warning whatsoever, they force me to upgrade my Scarlet to Dragon and telling me that $9500 is a good deal because normally it would cost $12,500. Yeah, right. To make matters worse, they also hold a Weapon to my head telling me I have to give them more money in the future. The lack of personal freedom with the RED program makes me feel like I am in prison. Terrible, terrible, terrible.

THAT'S what pisses me off.

:devil: :biggrinjester:

 

[Dimitri Boschma]

@Terry... LOL