Politics, religion: was 2008 Elections...? - enter at your own risk

[John K]

Going back to the elections...

It's interesting to hear now that some Republicans think Obama will be easier to defeat than Hillary Clinton.

It's also interesting to speculate of how much of a political force Hillary would have been without Bill's zipper problems. If it wasn't for all that publicity, how many people would have known who she was?:wacko:

 

[number6]

231 dead people in the middle of scrubland.

I used to live near hanford. Very very little would have happened if they had flown a 767 into one of the reactors or cooling towers.

I'm sure they would want to make sure there were no cracks...

Gavin, do you glow? Glad to hear you moved.hmy:

 

[Jeff Kilgroe]

Sorry Tom, my request was intended to be tongue in cheek..

Hehe, I realized that. But it was such a fitting request.

Sorry, Tom. It won't let me edit the name of the OP. If you want, I can change the title back. :tongue:

Haha. :biggrin:

 

[Russ McDonald]

47% precincts in Senator Clinton 39% Senator Oboma 36%

 

[Joel Kaye]

Obama will be the President someday, I just don't think its this time around.

A Republican will be President again someday, I just don't think it's this time around. (ditto for House and Senate). Hillary is the Repubs best chance, but even then women will walk into that booth and think... "It's about time for a woman".

 

[number6]

A Republican will be President again someday, I just don't think it's this time around. (ditto for House and Senate). Hillary is the Repubs best chance, but even then women will walk into that booth and think... "It's about time for a woman".

You REALLY think the Dems will sweep Congress? Remember, their collective unfavorable rating is worse than the Presidents. And with the surge working and with everyone remembering that the Dems tried time and time again to raise the white flag and sound retreat from Iraq, I'm thinking maybe the Dems (Hillary) wins the Whitehouse and the Repubs control at least one house of Congress.

 

[Bill Goehring]

Hold on there, cowboy!

Congress is made up of Democrats AND Republicans, with the Democrats in the smallest of majorities.

I'd say the congressional unfavorable rating is as much of a dissatisfaction with the obstructionist ways of the minority as it is a dissatisfaction with the inability of the majority to overcome that obstructionism and move forward with the agenda that swept them into the majority in both houses.

 

[Joel Kaye]

You REALLY think the Dems will sweep Congress? Remember, their collective unfavorable rating is worse than the Presidents.

They did last time. Did you think that was coming? The Repubs got their butts handed to them.

There are more Republican seats than Dem seats up in the Senate so it's highly unlikely the Senate will turn. And the House has a large Dem edge right now. Look for it to increase.

People hate the Congress for different reasons.

Dems are pissed at Dems for not holding Bush accountable and not ending the Iraq war. That's why they have high unfavorables. Republicans in Congress have horrible ratings because they aren't being Republicans (checking the President and watching the budget).

Iraq is a nightmare for the Republicans politically.

I think if anything looms it's wholesale change. That bodes better for Dems. 70% of Americans want out of Iraq. Americans generally side with Dems on a policy basis, but Republicans are better campaigners/strategists. But the Republicans got us into the current mess and will continue to pay.

Additionally, the most recent polls have Dems favored 53 to 40 percent when asked to choose which party was doing a better job.

It's very simplistic to just spout out Congressional approval ratings without analyzing each party and person. If the 53%-40% holds in favor of Dems - and I think it will - Repubs will gain no ground and they will lose the Presidency.

Again - people are mad at Dems for not putting Bush on trial and getting us out of Iraq. The Republicans can't benefit from that particular type of dissatisfaction.

Very few people still support Bush so Republicans like Guliani/McCain running as status quo guys are doomed. Huckleberry has the best chance but nobody wants a President named Huckleberry (especially after 8 years of "not the brightest we've ever had")

 

[number6]

Hold on there, cowboy!

Congress is made up of Democrats AND Republicans, with the Democrats in the smallest of majorities.

I'd say the congressional unfavorable rating is as much of a dissatisfaction with the obstructionist ways of the minority as it is a dissatisfaction with the inability of the majority to overcome that obstructionism and move forward with the agenda that swept them into the majority in both houses.

Grab your nuts with both hands there, squirrely! The American people, in their infinite wisdom, believe in the checks and balances of opposition to the party of the president, in at least one house of Congress. It shall be so again.

 

[number6]

They did last time. Did you think that was coming? Ther Repubs got their butts handed to them.

There are more Republican seats than Dem seats up in the Senate so it's highly unlikely the Senate will turn. And the House has a large Dem edge right now. Look for it to increase.

People hate the Congress for different reasons.

Dems are pissed at Dems for not holding Bush accountable and not ending the Iraq war. That's why they have high unfavorables. Republicans in Congress have horrible ratings because they aren't being Republicans (checking the President and watching the budget).

Iraq is a nightmare for the Republicans politically.

I think if anything looms it's wholesale change. That bodes better for Dems. 70% of Americans want out of Iraq. Americans generally side with Dems on a policy basis, but Republicans are better campaigners/strategists. But the Republicans got us into the current mess and will continue to pay.

Additionally, the most recent polls have Dems favored 53 to 40 percent when asked to choose which party was doing a better job.

It's very simplistic to just spout out Congressional approval ratings without analyzing each party and person. If the 53%-40% holds in favor of Dems - and I think it will - Repubs will gain no ground and they will lose the Presidency.

Again - people are mad at Dems for not putting Bush on trial and getting us out of Iraq. The Republicans can't benefit from that particular type of dissatisfaction.

I don't think you can go by past numbers. Just like the New Hampshire primary appeared to be a BIG win for Obama, and is turning out to instead be a Clinton coronation. Everything is in flux now and I for one do not think the past is prologue.

Besides, we are beginning the new march to Solar Maximum, and sunspots affect thinking. (That's a personal belief... nothing scientific that I am aware of supports it):matrix:

 

[Russ McDonald]

Joel

What are you going to do when Senator Clinton, keeps troops in Iraq, and wages war in Pakistan, and Kills more troops and more civilians fall to collateral damage.

She got cornered by Russert in the debate. She wouldn't commit to a number or a date for withdrawal. (which was the responsible thing to say, very Presidential)

 

[Gavin Greenwalt]

I know, those results are surprising so far! Hillary doing much better in these reports.

I don't see why people are so surprised. January 5 polls (and the hundred polls previous) had Clinton up by 12% even after the fade.

It's just the Iowa target fixation which never is reflective of national polls.

Obama won a very very very very small handful of votes last week. Iowa is hardly reflective of the national average.

I don't expect either Hillary or Obama to pull out a noticeable lead for some time. Both are viable candidates and as a result we're not going to see the sort of tidal shift we saw with Dean.

I get the impression democrats feel like they've already won the election it's just a matter of choosing who wins so you're going to see some very intense national campaigning over the following months.

 

[Russ McDonald]

69% precincts in Senator Clinton 39% Senator Oboma 36%

AP calls it for Senator Clinton, so much for exit polling.....

 

[Bill Goehring]

Grab your nuts with both hands there, squirrely!

Hmmm...Don't mess with Texas, huh?

The American people, in their infinite wisdom, believe in the checks and balances of opposition to the party of the president, in at least one house of Congress. It shall be so again.

As do I. And so it shall be again. But probably not next time around.

The truth is that Dubya and the Dick have kicked America in the balls so many times over the last seven years that it is increasingly likely that Americans will take the GOP behind the woodshed and beat them severely for the punishment we have suffered.

The truly amazing thing is that the public was duped into re-electing them after the first four years. Of course, they had a little help behind the scenes in the nefarious ways in which the Republican machine is so adept.

 

[Russ McDonald]

I don't see why people are so surprised. January 5 polls (and the hundred polls previous) had Clinton up by 12% even after the fade.

It's just the Iowa target fixation which never is reflective of national polls.

Obama won a very very very very small handful of votes last week. Iowa is hardly reflective of the national average.

I don't expect either Hillary or Obama to pull out a noticeable lead for some time. Both are viable candidates and as a result we're not going to see the sort of tidal shift we saw with Dean.

I get the impression democrats feel like they've already won the election it's just a matter of choosing who wins so you're going to see some very intense national campaigning over the following months.

Add that 24 hour news cycle, I would rather be waterboarded.

 

[number6]

The truly amazing thing is that the public was duped into re-electing them after the first four years. Of course, they had a little help behind the scenes in the nefarious ways in which the Republican machine is so adept.

Oh come on BillG! Your code for sayin' "God was on their side" is just... well, probably not true!:tongue:

 

[Joel Kaye]

Besides, we are beginning the new march to Solar Maximum, and sunspots affect thinking. (That's a personal belief... nothing scientific that I am aware of supports it):matrix:

I used to believe in that stuff until my Shaman told me it was bullshit.


Regarding NH -

Polling place interviews showed that the female vote — which deserted the former first lady when she finished third in last week's Iowa caucuses — was solidly in Clinton's New Hampshire column.

The former first lady also was winning handily among registered Democrats. Obama led her by an even larger margin among independents.


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That's a pretty good indicator to me of what women and independents would do in a general election. I think Obama/Edwards is a winner for the Repubs... BUT a year from now is a long time, I'll concede that.

 

[Rick Darge]

This interview for Irish TV of GWB is really funny.. what a dickhead that guy is..

http://youtube.com/watch?v=-vefD3WSiis&feature=related

 

[number6]

I used to believe in that stuff until my Shaman told me it was bullshit.

Holy Manitou... even my oun people (I'm a 16th Cherokee, but it's my dominant sixteenth) have deserted the true path.

Regarding NH -

Polling place interviews showed that the female vote — which deserted the former first lady when she finished third in last week's Iowa caucuses — was solidly in Clinton's New Hampshire column.

The former first lady also was winning handily among registered Democrats. Obama led her by an even larger margin among independents.


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That's a pretty good indicator to me of what women and independents would do in a general election. I think Obama/Edwards is a winner for the Repubs... BUT a year from now is a long time, I'll concede that.

Yes, I think in November the mods should pull this thread out so the predictions can be reviewed (including my oun:cold: ). Of course they probably won't have to pull it out because this thing has taken on a life of its oun.:usd:

 

[Bill Goehring]

Oh come on BillG! Your code for sayin' "God was on their side" is just... well, probably not true!:tongue:

Uh...yeah. Right.

And even though your emoticon belies your sarcasm (I think), that is one of their worst, though most effective, tactics: taking the public's faith in what well-intentioned Americans believe to be good and holy and turning it against them to enrich and empower themselves. Despicable.