Novel conundrum

[Bill Anderson]

Here is an interesting conundrum based on the TV show the Price is Right, it was brought up in a book I read recently and it noted how this simple enough premise had some pretty smart math guys hotly arguing: There are three doors, behind one is a great prize. A host invites you to pick a door - you choose one, and the host responds: "here is what I'll do, I will omit one of the remaining two doors because I know that there is no prize behind it", and so he does omit one. Then he asks if you want to stay with your original choice, or if you would prefer to change your mind and choose the other remaining door. What would you do? Is there an advantage either way? (;

 

[Steve Das]

Here is an interesting conundrum based on the TV show the Price is Right, it was brought up in a book I read recently (;

What was the book ?

 

[Bill Anderson]

What was the book ?

the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.

No cheating

 

[Mark Collins]

It's a 50/50 chance, and I'd probably stick with the door I already chose. Why? Because the host is trying to undermine my confidence by making me think he's being nice by omitting one of the doors.

The other thought running through my mind is that he knows that I know he's trying to undermine my confidence and that I actually am picking a door with no prize behind it.

That being said, my lighting teacher told me one of the best pieces of advice: go with your first instinct as it's often right.

 

[David Rasberry]

If its down to a choice between two doors, it's statistically a 50/50 proposition. But I would stay with my first choice as that may be influenced by in a subtle subconscious clues, gut instincts if you will, that may contribute to a slightly greater chance of sucess.

 

[Bill Anderson]

Nope

 

[Richard Fox]

Change. You originally had a one in three chance. The other two doors collectively had a two in three chance. By choosing the other door you increase your odds to two out of three.

 

[Bill Anderson]

Very cunning, Mr. Fox

 

[Nils J. Nesse]

It's the infamous Monty Hall problem

 

[Richard Fox]

Here's an incredibly clear explanation of it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koPBkK_Ra-k

 

[Aaron McAdam]

also:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXqDIFUB7YU&feature=related