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Daniel Browning
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But I was also saying that in the end it doesn't matter because of the progression and evolution of the technology. While one photosite design and manufacture process may give diminishing returns if scaled to a smaller size, that does not necessarily hold true for the next design.
Agreed. I think I see your point now; thank you for the clarification.
We're beneficiaries of the ingenuity of sensor designers.
Also not sure how you determine there is less than a full stop of improvement.
Older sensors had QE as low as 25%, so back then it was theoretically possible to get a two stop improvement (log(100/25)/log(2)). Now that many sensors are easily up to 50%, it would require going from 50% to 100% in order to get one full stop (log(100/50)/log(2)) of improvement to QE.
Close is subjective. To me, a 50-70% range still represents a long way to go, especially when that last 30% will be the most difficult.
Agreed; it is a very long way to go because of how difficult that is, but the maximum improvement is only 30%, whereas the other two important aspects of sensor performance, read noise and dynamic range, have no theoretical limit on improvement. QE has slowed more and more as we've gotten closer to the theoretical limit in QE. Read noise, on the other hand, has improved steadily, and there are plenty of papers and patents on dynamic range improvements (though they may have some issues since they've not been commercially utilized except at Fuji). Although there appears to be many practical limitations to improving read noise and DR, I think sensor designers will find a way somehow.
But as for QE, although 100% is theoretically possible, I don't think it's practical in the foreseeable future, since it would require removing the color filters, and therefore a new method to detect color. (One possibility would be directly measuring the frequency and phase of light itself, but that's in the realm of sci-fi.)