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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Mad Dash for Scarlet

Right.

I don't know much about these things, but if the camera and components are designed well then a chimp can put them together. Production scaling is relatively simple if you have components in sufficient quantity.

Order processing typically takes six to eight weeks. That is plenty of time to put a unit together I should think.
 
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Scott Crawley said:
Production scaling is relatively simple if you have components in sufficient quantity.

Order processing typically takes six to eight weeks. That is plenty of time to put a unit together I should think.
Click to expand...

First, you have to build a factory or at the very least a production assembly line...



I wonder how many people who say today they'll buy a Scarlet, actually will when they are faced with the reality of handing over their hard earned cash.

I've only bought camera systems where I know I can get a return. That means having clients that will pay for the use of the kit and can also handle the workflow. Scarlet wont be a walk in the park for most would-be users; they wont have the accessories, computer power or know-how to make use of the camera. To many people the camera is a red-herring.

I've been preparing some of my clients for the arrival of Scarlet. I want them up to speed the day Scarlet is released, so I can be shooting on it as soon as possible. I suggest everyone who plans on buying Scarlet does the same (unless you're purchasing for personal use) as the more clients that know about Scarlet and want to use it the better the chance for everyone to actually get hired to use it.
 
Liam Hall said:
I've only bought camera systems where I know I can get a return. That means having clients that will pay for the use of the kit and can also handle the workflow. Scarlet wont be a walk in the park for most would-be users; they wont have the accessories, computer power or know-how to make use of the camera. To many people the camera is a red-herring.
Click to expand...

I think most people on Reduser will, since we've all been discussing prices, computing specs, and accessories for the last two years... But there will be a lot of the kind of "engadget readers" who probably wouldn't put up the cash.
 
It's Won't Be About the Money

It's Won't Be About the Money

J Davis said:
Interesting. Because my guess was also 25 thousand (see my post a few pages back).

To meet an order of 25 thousand fixed units head on we are talking 125 million dollars. Thats a chunk of money in anyone's book. It wouldn't surprise me if RED implement some kind of system to get an idea of what the demand is really like. It may not be deposits but I can't imagine any other method.
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While I might not agree with all the assumptions being made here and elsewhere about demand, sales, etc., , I will say I don't think the bottleneck is likely to be money. To "some people" with big successes and big ideas, figures like $125 million are not all that daunting. Particularly when, if you have access to credit in these markets, money is currently rather cheap - making existing funds liquid and leveraged even more easily. I'd say for "this person," NOT investing the money up front to meet demand might be the bigger business risk.

That said, money is just one small component in getting lots of Scarlets (and Epics) out the door. Personally, I have no clue as to what the demand or the supply will be. I think all we can do is wait.
 
Liam Hall said:
I wonder how many people who say today they'll buy a Scarlet, actually will when they are faced with the reality of handing over their hard earned cash.
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Yea, this is a good point and one that ties in with why I think 50k+ sales is a bit of a stretch.

When spending alot of time on these boards.... it seems like everyone who has ever posted here will buy one the minute they arrive....

But you have to take into account that some people have moved on.... some are happy with their "insert camera name"... some talk the talk, but will back out... some have become jaded with delays.... some will be happy with their R1 MX... some will have saved every penny for an Epic, rental houses will be concerned about saturation... etc, ect

And that is IF the camera arrives within 2010. Go past that and a whole host of variables come into play.
 
Stephen Gentle said:
I think most people on Reduser will, since we've all been discussing prices, computing specs, and accessories for the last two years... But there will be a lot of the kind of "engadget readers" who probably wouldn't put up the cash.
Click to expand...

But how many people who talk the talk will walk the walk?

It was interesting to note all the negative posts after the Oct 30th announcements when reality dawned on people that Epic/Scarlet are serious tools that come at a (very decent) price. It was like they were all finding excuses why they were better off with camera 'X' or camera 'Y', whilst pouring scorn on RED for having raised their expectations and then dashed them.

These people believe that Scarlet is the answer to all their filmmaking woes. To them it is the tool that will propel them to stardom, make them rich and attractive to women (or men or whomever...). But when Scarlet is released, they'll be faced with a new reality where only their talent and ability will stand in the way of their success.

My guess is that Scarlet will be an extraordinary success, with users from all sectors of the industry joining in the fun. I also predict the internet will be awash with a tidal wave of excuses, moaning and backtracking from those people who were simply deluded in the first place.

Someone should open a book. I'll put $10 on first year sales being less than 25,000. Any takers:)

Best wishes and happy shooting one and all, especially the dreamers...
 
Terry VerHaar said:
Particularly when, if you have access to credit in these markets, money is currently rather cheap - making existing funds liquid and leveraged even more easily.
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Money is cheap but no one is lending. Not in the UK at least. Most major economies are still teetering on the edge of the recession and recovery is very slow, another reason why I think sales in the first year will be 14,298. You see if I'm right:)

Now, I really must go...
 
Liam Hall said:
Money is cheap but no one is lending. Not in the UK at least. Most major economies are still teetering on the edge of the recession and recovery is very slow, another reason why I think sales in the first year will be 14,298. You see if I'm right:)

Now, I really must go...
Click to expand...

I did say IF! Then again, if you have a net worth well into 10 figures, lenders tend to make themselves available. But we are all just speculating, aren't we. :crazy:
 
Liam Hall said:
But how many people who talk the talk will walk the walk?

It was interesting to note all the negative posts after the Oct 30th announcements when reality dawned on people that Epic/Scarlet are serious tools that come at a (very decent) price. It was like they were all finding excuses why they were better off with camera 'X' or camera 'Y', whilst pouring scorn on RED for having raised their expectations and then dashed them.

These people believe that Scarlet is the answer to all their filmmaking woes. To them it is the tool that will propel them to stardom, make them rich and attractive to women (or men or whomever...). But when Scarlet is released, they'll be faced with a new reality where only their talent and ability will stand in the way of their success.

My guess is that Scarlet will be an extraordinary success, with users from all sectors of the industry joining in the fun. I also predict the internet will be awash with a tidal wave of excuses, moaning and backtracking from those people who were simply deluded in the first place.

Someone should open a book. I'll put $10 on first year sales being less than 25,000. Any takers:)

Best wishes and happy shooting one and all, especially the dreamers...
Click to expand...

Serious high quality motion picture cameras, video or film, have always been a fairly expensive niche market item.
Red I think has positioned themselves well as a high value product in this market. They pretty much fill the gaping hole between the very highest quality top of the line cameras and the sub 10K prosumer market.
A lot of people are going to be disappointed that Red is not producing a low priced mass market consumer system. But there are plenty of alternatives already for that market.
Catering to those who are truly interested in a reasonably affordable, flexible very high image quality option is not a mistake. Red doesn't need to become a mass market giant to make a good product or a decent income that will allow the company to fluorish.
 
Liam Hall said:
I agree completely David, couldn't have put it better myself. So, will you take my bet:)
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I would expect something more in the 10k-15k units range for the first year. 25k is about 500 cameras a week. That is a lot of product deliveries for a small company to gear up for.
 
just my side, I will gladly put a downpayment or reservation fee now for launch. But I would have a hard time putting down the same amount, let alone the full price, at launch if it is going to be a "We'll call you when its your turn" thing that could be weeks or months. I make a living with my gear. I would rather invest in lights, wait 6 months, then see what I have accrued in their use. Maybe thats a bad example... but I am SO READY to buy right away (money is already there), but NOT READY to get in an indefinite waiting line.

I just hope they give us a clear rollout plan with DATES. ... once the camera is ready.

Just my stance.

Jeff
 
Well whatever the DVX100 sold in it's first year out in what was it 2004?
One would think Scarlet fixed would sell about the same amount.
DVX100 was first 24P mini-dv and had XLR inputs so it created quite a stir.
Similar price between the 2 cameras..DVX price considering inflation might
measure out be slightly more than Scarlet.

Would think Scarlet sales would be almost indentical...now how many of those
Panasonic sold in year one..no idea..but most likely some people on these boards
know the number.
 
i'm gonna disagree, the scarlet is much more of a professional tool than the dvx100. i think scarlet post requirements are going to scare people off, this isn't just a point and shoot camcorder.
 
Most companies are pretty secretive about their sales figures for specific models.
 
brian hanson said:
...the scarlet is much more of a professional tool than the dvx100...
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Depends on whose hands the camera is in. Ultimately when
it comes down to it...every camera is point and shoot.

Remember DVX100 was used on the film November which won
Best Cinematography at Sundance in 2004. Of course now it's
outdated but back in the day it was all by itself w/ low cost 24P

Red will sort out any post issues..maybe stuff at this NAB..
 
brian hanson said:
i'm gonna disagree, the scarlet is much more of a professional tool than the dvx100. i think scarlet post requirements are going to scare people off, this isn't just a point and shoot camcorder.
Click to expand...

I don't think post requirements are that bad for Red. Plus the new cams will have 1080p video capability too. That should simplify things a bit.
 
brian hanson said:
i'm gonna disagree, the scarlet is much more of a professional tool than the dvx100. i think scarlet post requirements are going to scare people off, this isn't just a point and shoot camcorder.
Click to expand...

Now this is where RGB redcode and in camera debayer to Full Frame 1080p will come into play and affect sales.

Which image do you think will be better?
EX1 vs scarlet fixed 1080p FF rgb redcode
 
J Davis said:
Which image do you think will be better?
EX1 vs scarlet fixed 1080p FF rgb redcode
Click to expand...

An answer that will be answered by the release of the DSMC.
smiley.gif
One thing...the the sensor will be a whopping 33% larger in size which translates to a 1/6" larger than the EX1's sensor...
 
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