Mad Dash for Scarlet

[David Rasberry]

Epic might need 2 years to hit those sales..but certainly doable..

As for Scarlet..think vastly underestimated..forget whatever 1-2 year
delay on it so far...many people have been waiting for such a high
resolution/small form digital camera since the beginning mini-dv Sony
VX-1000 circa 1997..that's well over a decade people have been
waiting for such a camera..trust us..it will sell like gangbusters..

I've been waiting for more like 30 years. Ever since 3/4Umatic and the first Betacams displaced 16mm film most TV production roles.

 

[Jim Retar]

You forget the teleproduction market, which dwarfs the cinema market.

Yet is a fraction of the size of the photography/dslr market, in terms of unit sales.... which someone used to represent the size of Scarlet's market. If the scarlet fixed can shift around 20-30% the units of a 5DII (in a 3 year cycle), for instance, then it will be considered a huge... almost mind blowing success.

55,000 units in the first few months is very, very optimistic though... purely on a manufacturing levels, let alone sales.

The Arri rep said they expected around 600 sales of the new camera line... yet people are talking of 10,000+ epic sales. Seems massively disproportionate, considering the fairly similar price/feature range.

 

[Carlos Dueñas]

Could it not be a case that you mainly speak to and notice film makers though?

Maybe you are right, i'm a Camera Operator/1rst AC

As for the film grads.... how many have $6k+ (fixed + CF cards etc)? How many might turn to a 5DIII or whatever comes out late 2010..

6000$, betwen 2 or 3 of them its not a problem to get that money;about 5DIII, that's and interesting variable.

How many people outside of USA might think twice about Scarlet because of the minimal service around Europe and Asia?

A lot of people are going to get Scarlets outside of USA, i'm in Quito, Ecuador, and can tell you that the interest for Red1 its huge, everybody its getting 7D's, and Scarlet its going to be a hit, imagine Latin America seen in 3k..for 6000$ ? Sure there is going to be a lot of Scarlets everywhere, without or with minimun service.

I just think alot of people misinterpret how big the cinema market is.

Its not only people from cinema, or trying to get into the cinema market, its cable-television-web video people eager to bring cinema quality to everything they do, you cannot imagine the effect of the HDSLR's in the AV world, and who are those people? half the film grads this year..
Anyways..i will love to get my hands on my S35 one day too

 

[Jim Retar]

When I said the cinema market... I pretty much meant the non-ENG market. I should have been clearer.

RED will (already do have) a huge impact in many non cinema markets.... the reach is just not comparable to the DSLR/Photography market.

 

[David Rasberry]

Red controls owner registration of their cameras pretty closely. It may be different with Scarlets, but I bet it follows similar procedure to R1, you make a deposit to get your place in line, they call you with your serial # when your turn comes up and you get your camera shipped already registered to you when you pay in full. Not easy to scalp as it would involve transfering registration to the new owner for a fee to maintain service, warranty and support .

 

[Carlos Dueñas]

When I said the cinema market... I pretty much meant the non-ENG market. I should have been clearer

You were very clear, sorry about my english

Its not only people from cinema..

many people have been waiting for such a high
resolution/small form digital camera since the beginning mini-dv Sony
VX-1000

this one (fixed Scarlet) its going to be like the dvx100 was on sales in her times

 

[David Rasberry]

Yet is a fraction of the size of the photography/dslr market, in terms of unit sales.... which someone used to represent the size of Scarlet's market. If the scarlet fixed can shift around 20-30% the units of a 5DII (in a 3 year cycle), for instance, then it will be considered a huge... almost mind blowing success.

55,000 units in the first few months is very, very optimistic though... purely on a manufacturing levels, let alone sales.

The Arri rep said they expected around 600 sales of the new camera line... yet people are talking of 10,000+ epic sales. Seems massively disproportionate, considering the fairly similar price/feature range.

The difference is an Epic is still a reasonably affordable middle market price range camera, significantly less than an ARRI. Two or three thousand units on top of existing R1 owners upgrades and you are there.

With Scarlet I expect initial sales will be limited more by how fast Red can ship them than market demand.

 

[Paul Hazlett]

... you make a deposit to get your place in line, they call you with your serial # when your turn comes up and you get your camera shipped already registered to you when you pay in full....

Jim has already stated there will be no deposits for Scarlets, This method for Red One was apparently quite a bear.

We are talking major numbers here so i think distribution and support needs to adapt to the numbers. I believe it will be more traditional...pay your money and take your camera, if its not available, you get a rain check but you still pay all at once. this is only my guess, but for efficiency sake this might be the way to go.

The RED heads have learned from the past and I think they know what lies ahead with the Scarlet/Epic onslaught.

 

[Jim Retar]

Based on the assumption that there are 7000+ R1s out there and that every one of those people/companies will take the upgrade. How many non R1 owners are looking at Epic, very hard to say.

As for Scarlet, it really depends on when they ship. If they launch tomorrow... then I expect they could hit 20k+ sales. If it is towards the latter end of 2010, there are way to many variables to take into account.

 

[Stefan Christou]

I'm just hoping all the Scarletusers will PM me if it hit the market. I will do the same for them.

 

[David Rasberry]

Jim has already stated there will be no deposits for Scarlets, This method for Red One was apparently quite a bear.

We are talking major numbers here so i think distribution and support needs to adapt to the numbers. I believe it will be more traditional...pay your money and take your camera, if its not available, you get a rain check but you still pay all at once. this is only my guess, but for efficiency sake this might be the way to go.

The RED heads have learned from the past and I think they know what lies ahead with the Scarlet/Epic onslaught.

You are probably right. But SN# registration to the original buyer at purchase should continue. Definitely a good way to discourage scalpers if ownership transfer has to be registered for a fee to maintain warranty and service coverage.

 

[Thomas Mark Schaefer]

...many people have been waiting for such a high
resolution/small form digital camera since the beginning mini-dv Sony
VX-1000 circa 1997..that's well over a decade people have been
waiting for such a camera..trust us..it will sell like gangbusters..

This. I remember someone did a poll here asking which RED camera and how many people were planning on buying. It will be worse (or better from RED's perspective) than Walmart on Black Friday. I just hope I can avoid being virtually trampled.

 

[J Davis]

Jim has already stated there will be no deposits for Scarlets,

I remember this as well. Maybe it wasn't Jim but someone up high in the Red team said it.

I will point out that it was stated quite a while ago. Their views on scarlet release may have changed.

 

[J Davis]

I also will bet that Jim and team RED are reading this thread with a smile on their faces.

And well deservedly so.

 

[J Davis]

I'm sure team RED want maximize customer satisfaction when the fixed bombshell drops. They don't want to see angry and frustrated forum members. I'm curious as hell to see how this one is handled.

The best way I can see that frustrations are avoided is to attempt to meet and satisfy the demand right from the start. That's a huge capital investment as I bet the profit margin on the fixed is really, really, really small. That means 100 million to fill a warehouse full of 20 thousand scarlet fixeds. Or 50 million for 10 thousand fixed units. Have they got a plan to ascertain what their projected sales would be?

Or will they change policy and take deposits just to get an idea of projected numbers? Like I said I'm mad curious to see how this one unfolds.

 

[Eren Ozkural]

I don't think that they need to take deposits to estimate how many Scarlets they're going to shift.

Existing RED customers + the too poor/late redusers + the endgadget/gizmodo soccer moms + small production companies/rental houses who havent invested in red yet.

...I'm guessing off the top of my head...25,000 units sold at launch...as in first week/month.

I've never complained or bitched about any of RED's features/capabilities/prices/delays. The only thing I really want is to be able to buy the Scarlet and a comprehensive suite of accessories the day it launches.

(and a last frame/last clip/.jpeg from sd card picture overlay function while we're at it )

 

[J Davis]

Interesting. Because my guess was also 25 thousand (see my post a few pages back).

To meet an order of 25 thousand fixed units head on we are talking 125 million dollars. Thats a chunk of money in anyone's book. It wouldn't surprise me if RED implement some kind of system to get an idea of what the demand is really like. It may not be deposits but I can't imagine any other method.

 

[Stephen Gentle]

Interesting. Because my guess was also 25 thousand (see my post a few pages back).

To meet an order of 25 thousand fixed units head on we are talking 125 million dollars. Thats a chunk of money in anyone's book. It wouldn't surprise me if RED implement some kind of system to get an idea of what the demand is really like. It may not be deposits but I can't imagine any other method.

Pre-orders?

 

[Scott Crawley]

I remember this as well. Maybe it wasn't Jim but someone up high in the Red team said it.

I will point out that it was stated quite a while ago. Their views on scarlet release may have changed.

Jim said it himself... More than once.

 

[David Rasberry]

I imagine Red is gearing up for an efficient small batch just in time delivery supply chain that will be geared to how fast their order fulfillment staff can QC and ship cameras. Nobody warehouses 25000 unit quantities of a product like Scarlet. Maybe 1k or 2k range, whatever maximum quantity they plan to process and ship to end customers in one to two weeks at a time. Really much closer to a build to order process.